Some aspects on the Arctic energy budget and climatology

Download Some aspects on the Arctic energy budget and climatology

Post on 15-Jan-2016

42 views

Category:

Documents

0 download

DESCRIPTION

Some aspects on the Arctic energy budget and climatology. Nils Gunnar Kvamst ( Nils.Kvamsto@gfi.uib.no ) Input from Asgeir Sorteberg, Igor Ezau, Vladimir Alexeev and yvind Byrkjedal. OUTLINE OF THIS WEEKS LECTURES. Arctic Climatology 1 Arctic Climatology 2 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

  • Some aspects on the Arctic energy budget and climatology Nils Gunnar Kvamst (Nils.Kvamsto@gfi.uib.no) Input from Asgeir Sorteberg, Igor Ezau, Vladimir Alexeev and yvind Byrkjedal

  • OUTLINE OF THIS WEEKS LECTURESArctic Climatology 1Arctic Climatology 2Sea Ice role, variability, mechanismsArctic climate variability and climate change

  • ps0ztop0FRAMEWORK ENERGY CONTENT IN AN ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNHartmann (1994) Ch 6

  • RTOARS, QH+QS[uAE][uAE+d(uAE)]CHANGE OF ENERGY WITH TIME

  • soLi +SiOCEANIC ENERGY BUDGETTERRESTRIAL ENERGY BUDGETL Latent heat; S sensible heat

  • The Arctic energy budget70NAtmosphere:Net radiation at top of atmosphereLateral transportSurface fluxes (radiation, turbulence)

    Ocean:Surface fluxes (radiation, turbulence)Lateral transport (water)Latent heat (freezing/melting)Ice transport

    Land Surface:Surface fluxes

    Fresh water run off

  • Annual means:dAE/dt =0,Fsfc = 11 Wm-2Rtop=-110Wm-2F = 100Wm-2Residual 1Wm-2

    AE/t

  • Residuals space and time dependencySerreze et al (2007)00Annual cycle contd

  • F cosists mostly of dry static energy!Fq PrFsfc = Rs + QE + QH, Rs dominatesOften QH
  • Assessment of ERA40 comparison with sat.- and obs Data F well constrained (similar to NCEP)Fsfc is in the upper range (2.5 11) (1Wm-2 = 0.1m sea ice in 1 yr!!)Fsfc too high. Inaccurate cloud properties in ERA40Excessive Rtop too high content of sensible heatRemember satellite data are inaccurate as well

    Serreze et al (2007)

  • Energy flux from surface to atmosphere during winter Largest fluxes from open ocean QH QE Nearly 0 over land (QE into sfc [inversion] LW out) Energy flux from atmosphere to surface during summer. Largest over open ocean (SW and low albedo) QE downward (melting ice & permafrost deepening active soil layer)Fsfc in ERA40 are higher than in other datasets. Indication of systematic error. But, the active soil layer may have increased (tawing) over the last decades => more heat stored larger fluxes.Serreze et al (2007)

  • Serreze et al (2007)Mean transport

  • Time series of total transportPronounced annual cycleWeaker interannual cycleand low frequency variability.

    Trends?

    Serreze et al (2007)

  • ANNUAL ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY TRANSPORTAndresen and Sorteberg (2009)

  • Zonally averaged long term circulation mean meridional circulationFerrel cellPolar cellPoleward transport by mean meridional circulation =vuDeviations from mean matters as well eddiesWallace and Hobbs (2006)

    *

    Mean height of 500 hPa surface January Hartmann (1994) Ch 6ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT BY EDDIES

    *

    Total poleward heat tr = (tr by MMC) + (tr by qs eddies) + (tr by high freq eddies)ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT

    *

    Annual average northward energy fluxunits in 1015 W

    *

    Zonally averaged northward flux of heat by eddiesHartmann (1994) Ch 6

  • ATMOSPHERIC HEAT TRANSPORT MMC - MEAN MERIDIONAL CIRCULATIONSE - STATIONARY EDDIESTE - TRANSIENT EDDIESHEAT TRANSPORT ACROSS 60N

    Largest portion below 500hPa

    Max in 800-900hPa (1200-2500m)

    Not much in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer

  • The seasonal in/out flow of energy is longitude dependentBoth quasistationary waves and eddies contribute.Strong signatures from quasistationary waves in figureW and E of N. American throughTransport below 3000m -> N.Atl more pronounced hereLONGITUDINAL DEPENDENCE OF F

  • 3 neglected 2,4,5,6 -> observed => 1 residual5 ice drift in the fram strait4 estimated from model runs. Sum out/inflow Fram, Bering, Barents, Can Arc(may be dependent on comp method) Ocean budget (+ atmosphere over ocean area only)Serreze et al 2007

  • S0/OETransport terms are steady => Annual cycle generated by Fsfc

    Seasonal cycle comes mostly from Barents sea.Large heat content on Nov due to adv This contributes to secondary max in Li in Dec

    Cycle gets lagged with depth

  • ARCTIC CLIMATOLOGY

    QUALITY CHECKED ARCTIC STATIONSFORCLIMATE STUDIESPolyakov, 2003START YEAR

  • EXAMPLES OF SOME DRIFITING STATIONS FRAM (1893-1896) MAUD (1922-1924) T-3 (1952-1971) NP-STATIONS (1952-1993) RUSS. PATROL SHIPS (1952-1983) DARMS (1958-1975)

    Example: Pol (1953-1959, 1972)Example: NP-22 (1973-1982)Arctic Climatology Atlas, 2002Russ. Drifting Automatic Radiometeorological Stations

  • 2m temperatureArctic Climatology Atlas, 2002JANUARYAPRIL

  • 2m temperature Arctic Climatology Atlas, 2002JULYOCTOBER

  • TEMPERATURES AT SVALBARD

    Diagram1

    19101910191019101910

    19111911191119111911

    19121912-1.608742138419121912

    19131913-1.601823899419131913

    19141914-1.57691823919141914

    19151915-1.513773584919151915

    19161916-1.391132075519161916

    19171917-1.195031446519171917

    19181918-0.928113207519181918

    19191919-0.613773584919191919

    0.43285714291920-0.291194968619201920

    0.40192857141921-0.003710691819210.7280392157

    0.357714285719220.214276729619220.8050980392

    0.299428571419230.346037735819230.8814705882

    0.231642857119240.395974842819240.9557843137

    0.165428571419250.387421383619251.027745098

    0.117519260.355283018919261.0978431373

    0.105071428619270.335786163519271.1667647059

    0.139357142919280.355723270419281.2328431373

    0.220642857119290.425031446519291.2920588235

    0.338714285719300.536477987419301.3380392157

    0.476785714319310.671006289319311.3651960784

    0.616714285719320.806792452819321.3708823529

    0.742714285719330.925911949719331.356372549

    0.841642857119341.016729559719341.3254901961

    0.901519351.0715094341.07728571431.281372549

    0.911071428619361.08433962261.05021428571.2231372549

    0.862714285719371.05050314470.99464285711.1452941176

    0.758357142919380.97062893080.90914285711.0412745098

    0.613857142919390.8545911950.79964285710.9114705882

    0.457714285719400.72188679250.68050.7700980392

    0.322285714319410.59660377360.57035714290.6445098039

    0.231519420.49830188680.4850.565

    0.192142857119430.43591194970.43064285710.5508823529

    0.194928571419440.40723270440.40342857140.6004901961

    0.222714285719450.40345911950.39450.6917647059

    0.26107142860.46978494620.41591194970.39678571430.7933333333

    0.30357142860.48774193550.43981132080.40914285710.8788235294

    0.35107142860.5195161290.47446540880.43514285710.9345098039

    0.40742857140.56677419350.52144654090.47992857140.9598039216

    0.47528571430.62973118280.58182389940.54614285710.9615686275

    0.55435714290.70569892470.65471698110.63242857140.9496078431

    0.64014285710.7876881720.73559748430.73221428570.9337254902

    0.72357142860.86370967740.81547169810.83414285710.9235294118

    0.79178571430.91811827960.88144654090.92264285710.927254902

    0.82971428570.93494623660.91861635220.98057142860.9481372549

    0.82350.90209677420.91345911950.99207142860.981372549

    0.76328571430.81440860220.85672955970.94592857141.0124509804

    0.64621428570.67537634410.74591194970.83821428571.0202941176

    0.4790.49709677420.58679245280.67457142860.982745098

    0.27771428570.29854838710.3930817610.46971428570.8840196078

    0.06578571430.10145161290.18433962260.24464285710.7184313725

    -0.1324285714-0.0751612903-0.01911949690.02171428570.4924509804

    -0.2978571429-0.2195698925-0.2010691824-0.18007142860.2229411765

    -0.4200714286-0.3281182796-0.3510062893-0.3472142857-0.0655882353

    -0.4952142857-0.4009677419-0.4617610063-0.4698571429-0.3429411765

    -0.5210714286-0.4362365591-0.5255345912-0.5385714286-0.5761764706

    -0.4939285714-0.4268817204-0.5325157233-0.5436428571-0.7345098039

    -0.4108571429-0.3643010753-0.4743396226-0.4785-0.7964705882

    -0.2750714286-0.2462365591-0.3519496855-0.3464285714-0.7569607843

    -0.1011428571-0.0840322581-0.180754717-0.1646428571-0.6300980392

    0.0840.09623655910.00930817610.0368571429-0.4465686275

    0.24671428570.25983870970.18163522010.2223571429-0.2448039216

    0.35635714290.37376344090.3030817610.3597142857-0.0606862745

    0.39521428570.41709677420.35415094340.42878571430.0799019608

    0.36471428570.38709677420.33358490570.42592857140.1656862745

    0.28478571430.29973118280.25867924530.36450.1998039216

    0.18685714290.1845161290.16018867920.2710.1964705882

    0.10357142860.07607526880.07339622640.17792857140.1761764706

    0.05878571430.00403225810.02786163520.11442857140.1597058824

    0.0617857143-0.01559139780.03805031450.09707142860.1621568627

    0.10578571430.01494623660.09798742140.12471428570.1891176471

    0.17157142860.07655913980.18402515720.1790.2354901961

    0.23528571430.14236559140.26465408810.23271428570.2885294118

    0.27914285710.190.31484276730.26207142860.3351960784

    0.29907142860.21290322580.32811320750.25885714290.3706862745

    0.30650.22290322580.31893081760.23428571430.4020588235

    0.32057142860.24155913980.3138364780.21221428570.4451960784

    0.35585714290.28623655910.33547169810.21492857140.5144117647

    0.41207142860.35801075270.38993710690.25021428570.612254902

    0.47414285710.4413440860.46522012580.30785714290.7262745098

    0.52107142860.51397849460.54056603770.36771428570.8346078431

    0.53907142860.56069892470.59962264150.41235714290.9175490196

    0.52950.58123655910.63886792450.43635714290.9667647059

    0.50785714290.58887096770.66698113210.44692857140.9878431373

    0.4950.60198924730.69742138360.45742857140.9955882353

    0.50728571430.63478494620.74088050310.47992857141.0054901961

    0.55078571430.69284946240.80119496860.52042857141.027745098

    0.62150.77338709680.87622641510.57878571431.0647058824

    0.70971428570.86887096770.96056603770.65078571431.1126470588

    0.80450.97064516131.04805031450.73064285711.1655882353

    Bjrnya

    Hopen

    Svalbard Airport

    Ny-lesund

    Jan Mayen

    Temperature (degC)

    Annual

    Annual

    BjrnyaHopenSvalbard AirportNy-lesundJan Mayen

    1910

    1911

    1912-1.6087421384

    1913-1.6018238994

    1914-1.576918239

    1915-1.5137735849

    1916-1.3911320755

    1917-1.1950314465

    1918-0.9281132075

    1919-0.6137735849

    19200.43-0.2911949686

    19210.40-0.00371069180.7280392157

    19220.360.21427672960.8050980392

    19230.300.34603773580.8814705882

    19240.230.39597484280.9557843137

    19250.170.38742138361.027745098

    19260.120.35528301891.0978431373

    19270.110.33578616351.1667647059

    19280.140.35572327041.2328431373

    19290.220.42503144651.2920588235

    19300.340.53647798741.3380392157

    19310.480.67100628931.3651960784

    19320.620.80679245281.3708823529

    19330.740.92591194971.356372549

    19340.841.01672955971.3254901961

    19350.901.0715094341.07728571431.281372549

    19360.911.08433962261.05021428571.2231372549

    19370.861.05050314470.99464285711.1452941176

    19380.760.97062893080.90914285711.0412745098

    19390.610.8545911950.79964285710.9114705882

    19400.460.72188679250.68050.7700980392

    19410.320.59660377360.57035714290.6445098039

    19420.230.49830188680.4850.565

    19430.190.43591194970.43064285710.5508823529

    19440.190.40723270440.40342857140.6004901961

    19450.220.40345911950.39450.6917647059

    19460.260.470.41591194970.39678571430.7933333333

    19470.300.490.43981132080.40914285710.8788235294

    19480.350.520.47446540880.43514285710.9345098039

    19490.410.570.52144654090.47992857140.9598039216

    19500.480.630.58182389940.54614285710.9615686275

    19510.550.710.65471698110.63242857140.9496078431

    19520.640.790.73559748430.73221428570.9337254902

    19530.720.860.81547169810.83414285710.9235294118

    19540.790.920.88144654090.92264285710.927254902

    19550.830.930.91861635220.98057142860.9481372549

    19560.820.900.91345911950.99207142860.981372549

    19570.760.810.85672955970.94592857141.0124509804

    19580.650.680.74591194970.83821428571.0202941176

    19590.480.500.58679245280.67457142860.982745098

    19600.280.300.3930817610.46971428570.8840196078

    19610.070.100.18433962260.24464285710.7184313725

    1962-0.13-0.08-0.01911949690.02171428570.4924509804

    1963-0.30-0.22-0.2010691824-0.18007142860.2229411765

    1964-0.42-0.33-0.3510062893-0.3472142857-0.0655882353

    1965-0.50-0.40-0.4617610063-0.4698571429-0.3429411765

    1966-0.52-0.44-0.5255345912-0.5385714286-0.5761764706

    1967-0.49-0.43-0.5325157233-0.5436428571-0.7345098039

    1968-0.41-0.36-0.4743396226-0.4785-0.7964705882

    1969-0.28-0.25-0.3519496855-0.3464285714-0.7569607843

    1970-0.10-0.08-0.180754717-0.1646428571-0.6300980392

    19710.080.100.00930817610.0368571429-0.4465686275

    19720.250.260.18163522010.2223571429-0.2448039216

    19730.360.370.3030817610.3597142857-0.0606862745

    19740.400.420.35415094340.42878571430.0799019608

    19750.360.390.33358490570.42592857140.1656862745

    19760.280.300.25867924530.36450.1998039216

    19770.190.180.16018867920.2710.1964705882

    19780.100.080.07339622640.17792857140.1761764706

    19790.060.000.02786163520.11442857140.1597058824

    19800.06-0.020.03805031450.09707142860.1621568627

    19810.110.010.09798742140.12471428570.1891176471

    19820.170.080.18402515720.1790.2354901961

    19830.240.140.26465408810.23271428570.2885294118

    19840.280.190.31484276730.26207142860.3351960784

    19850.300.210.32811320750.25885714290.3706862745

    19860.310.220.31893081760.23428571430.4020588235

    19870.320.240.3138364780.21221428570.4451960784

    19880.360.290.33547169810.21492857140.5144117647

    19890.410.360.38993710690.25021428570.612254902

    19900.470.440.46522012580.30785714290.7262745098

    19910.520.510.54056603770.36771428570.8346078431

    19920.540.560.59962264150.41235714290.9175490196

    19930.530.580.63886792450.43635714290.9667647059

    19940.510.590.66698113210.44692857140.9878431373

    19950.500.600.69742138360.45742857140.9955882353

    19960.510.630.74088050310.47992857141.0054901961

    19970.550.690.80119496860.52042857141.027745098

    19980.620.770.87622641510.57878571431.0647058824

    19990.710.870.96056603770.65078571431.1126470588

    20000.800.971.04805031450.73064285711.1655882353

    Annual

    Bjrnya

    Hopen

    Svalbard Airport

    Ny-lesund

    Jan Mayen

    Temperature (degC)

    Annual

    Winter

    BjrnyaHopenSvalbard AirportNy-lesundJan Mayen

    1910

    1911

    1912-1.39

    1913-1.37

    1914-1.35

    1915-1.29

    1916-1.18

    1917-1.01

    1918-0.77

    1919-0.47

    1920-0.15

    19210.710.151.38

    19220.740.401.36

    19230.760.571.35

    19240.780.681.35

    19250.780.741.35

    19260.790.781.37

    19270.820.821.40

    19280.860.891.42

    19290.930.971.44

    19301.011.071.44

    19311.091.161.41

    19321.161.241.35

    19331.211.291.28

    19341.231.321.19

    19351.231.331.251.10

    19361.201.341.271.01

    19371.131.321.270.91

    19381.011.281.240.79

    19390.851.221.190.65

    19400.691.141.140.51

    19410.541.051.080.38

    19420.450.981.040.30

    19430.420.931.010.31

    19440.450.890.990.39

    19450.510.860.960.52

    19460.580.840.810.920.68

    19470.630.830.770.870.81

    19480.670.820.720.810.91

    19490.700.830.690.770.96

    19500.720.850.690.760.98

    19510.760.890.710.780.97

    19520.810.950.770.830.95

    19530.861.010.840.910.94

    19540.911.040.900.970.94

    19550.921.030.931.010.95

    19560.880.960.901.000.96

    19570.790.830.800.920.96

    19580.630.630.650.770.94

    19590.430.410.440.570.88

    19600.220.180.220.350.78

    19610.02-0.020.000.120.62

    1962-0.15-0.18-0.18-0.070.42

    1963-0.27-0.27-0.31-0.220.19

    1964-0.35-0.31-0.39-0.31-0.05

    1965-0.38-0.31-0.42-0.35-0.29

    1966-0.38-0.28-0.40-0.34-0.48

    1967-0.33-0.22-0.35-0.29-0.62

    1968-0.25-0.13-0.26-0.20-0.68

    1969-0.12-0.02-0.12-0.07-0.64

    19700.050.130.050.09-0.53

    19710.220.290.220.26-0.37

    19720.370.440.380.40-0.19

    19730.460.530.480.49-0.04

    19740.480.550.510.500.07

    19750.420.490.460.440.13

    19760.300.380.350.310.15

    19770.170.230.210.160.15

    19780.050.090.090.020.15

    1979-0.02-0.020.00-0.080.17

    1980-0.03-0.07-0.02-0.120.21

    19810.01-0.060.02-0.090.27

    19820.08-0.010.10-0.000.33

    19830.150.050.190.100.38

    19840.210.100.270.190.40

    19850.230.120.300.240.38

    19860.230.120.300.250.34

    19870.220.110.280.230.31

    19880.230.120.260.210.31

    19890.270.160.270.200.37

    19900.330.220.290.210.47

    19910.380.290.320.230.59

    19920.420.330.340.240.69

    19930.430.350.340.230.76

    19940.410.340.330.210.80

    19950.390.330.320.200.80

    19960.390.320.320.210.79

    19970.430.330.350.240.77

    19980.510.360.400.300.75

    19990.620.420.480.390.75

    20000.740.500.570.490.75

    Spring

    BjrnyaHopenSvalbard AirportNy-lesundJan Mayen

    1910

    1911

    1912-1.3533181818

    1913-1.3722272727

    1914-1.3922727273

    1915-1.3946363636

    1916-1.3566363636

    1917-1.2596363636

    1918-1.0995454545

    1919-0.8920454545

    19200.0282380952-0.6695

    1921-0.0449047619-0.46940909090.2811034483

    1922-0.1275238095-0.32227272730.37

    1923-0.2184285714-0.24463636360.4552413793

    1924-0.313952381-0.23690909090.5333793103

    1925-0.4071428571-0.28486363640.6024827586

    1926-0.4880952381-0.36190909090.6622758621

    1927-0.5455238095-0.43422727270.7124137931

    1928-0.5696666667-0.4690.7506206897

    1929-0.5553809524-0.44468181820.7717241379

    1930-0.5036190476-0.35804545450.7702068966

    1931-0.4213333333-0.22404545450.7444137931

    1932-0.3197619048-0.06827272730.6993793103

    1933-0.21285714290.08304545450.6451034483

    1934-0.11576190480.20963636360.5924827586

    1935-0.04423809520.29813636360.26854271360.5475172414

    1936-0.01252380950.33945454550.25613065330.5086206897

    1937-0.02923809520.32768181820.21070351760.4675172414

    1938-0.09219047620.26327272730.12944723620.4144137931

    1939-0.18547619050.15763636360.01959798990.3448275862

    1940-0.28176190480.0347272727-0.09964824120.2648965517

    1941-0.3514761905-0.0745-0.20145728640.1910344828

    1942-0.3744761905-0.1427727273-0.26110552760.1428275862

    1943-0.3476190476-0.1563636364-0.26683417090.1327586207

    1944-0.2840952381-0.1185-0.22396984920.1591034483

    1945-0.2047142857-0.0451363636-0.15030150750.206137931

    1946-0.12785714290.13223577240.0428181818-0.06743718590.2526206897

    1947-0.06409523810.14044715450.12645454550.00728643220.2808275862

    1948-0.01561904760.14735772360.19318181820.06427135680.2824137931

    19490.0209523810.15243902440.23877272730.10226130650.2592413793

    19500.05319047620.15971544720.26822727270.12798994970.2213103448

    19510.09171428570.17829268290.29372727270.15386934670.1835172414

    19520.14685714290.2189024390.32936363640.19341708540.1628275862

    19530.22347619050.28674796750.38322727270.25452261310.1743448276

    19540.31557142860.3747967480.45209090910.33422110550.2255172414

    19550.40528571430.46264227640.52136363640.41859296480.3117931034

    19560.4670476190.52333333330.57027272730.48703517590.416

    19570.47590476190.53304878050.5790.51894472360.5133103448

    19580.41676190480.480.53463636360.49984924620.579862069

    19590.29109523810.36804878050.43536363640.42512562810.600137931

    19600.11847619050.21544715450.29159090910.30190954770.5685517241

    1961-0.06866666670.04894308940.12377272730.14718592960.4864827586

    1962-0.2366666667-0.1050406504-0.0438181818-0.01723618090.3576551724

    1963-0.3627142857-0.2285772358-0.191-0.17090452260.1868965517

    1964-0.4400952381-0.3158130081-0.3064090909-0.2993969849-0.0163448276

    1965-0.4744761905-0.3693902439-0.3866818182-0.3944723618-0.2331724138

    1966-0.4739047619-0.3924390244-0.431-0.4504020101-0.4340689655

    1967-0.4411904762-0.3826829268-0.4363181818-0.4615577889-0.5846896552

    1968-0.3734285714-0.3332520325-0.3976818182-0.4229648241-0.6566896552

    1969-0.2676666667-0.2396341463-0.3138181818-0.3350753769-0.6382758621

    1970-0.1287142857-0.1078455285-0.1935-0.2083417085-0.5390344828

    19710.02723809520.0422357724-0.0575454545-0.0640201005-0.386137931

    19720.17419047620.18040650410.06554545450.0707035176-0.2151034483

    19730.28419047620.27528455280.14890909090.1706030151-0.0584827586

    19740.33714285710.3050.17718181820.22075376880.0624827586

    19750.32947619050.26548780490.15259090910.22150753770.1415862069

    19760.27676190480.17288617890.09536363640.18879396980.1855862069

    19770.20833333330.05934959350.03736363640.14839195980.2082758621

    19780.156-0.03711382110.01072727270.12648241210.224

    19790.142-0.08536585370.03572727270.13959798990.2424827586

    19800.1717619048-0.07162601630.11259090910.18839195980.2675172414

    19810.2342380952-0.00304878050.22186363640.25849246230.298

    19820.30842857140.09703252030.33313636360.32753768840.3291034483

    19830.37328571430.20073170730.41840909090.37547738690.3537241379

    19840.41623809520.28800813010.46409090910.39311557790.3648965517

    19850.43733333330.35398373980.47559090910.38527638190.3592413793

    19860.4470.40808943090.47322727270.36793969850.3409655172

    19870.45928571430.46577235770.48177272730.36030150750.3222758621

    19880.48385714290.53788617890.5190.37653266330.3191724138

    19890.52109523810.62382113820.58872727270.42050251260.3444827586

    19900.56176190480.71154471540.68140909090.48537688440.4017241379

    19910.5919523810.78402439020.77990909090.55819095480.4829655172

    19920.59938095240.82743902440.86690909090.62547738690.572

    19930.5790.83670731710.93018181820.67768844220.6510344828

    19940.5349523810.81646341460.96409090910.71040201010.707862069

    19950.47838095240.77829268290.96890909090.72376884420.7394482759

    19960.42285714290.73565040650.94927272730.72115577890.7506896552

    19970.37876190480.69963414630.91259090910.70743718590.7504137931

    19980.35090476190.67617886180.86663636360.68768844220.746137931

    19990.33842857140.6660975610.81786363640.6660804020.7417241379

    20000.33709523810.66658536590.77036363640.64527638190.737862069

    Summer

    BjrnyaHopenSvalbard AirportNy-lesundJan Mayen

    1910

    1911

    1912-1.0839393939

    1913-1.003030303

    1914-0.8971212121

    1915-0.7551515152

    1916-0.5671212121

    1917-0.3310606061

    1918-0.0568181818

    19190.2303030303

    19200.56860.4945454545

    19210.46080.69833333330.358125

    19220.33910.8119696970.42421875

    19230.2070.82409090910.489375

    19240.07080.74575757580.5465625

    1925-0.05860.60848484850.59328125

    1926-0.16590.45636363640.635

    1927-0.23340.33257575760.6865625

    1928-0.24560.26651515150.76578125

    1929-0.1960.26590909090.8821875

    1930-0.09030.31833333331.02875

    19310.05420.39818181821.1821875

    19320.21470.47863636361.31234375

    19330.36980.53818181821.39546875

    19340.50370.56348484851.421875

    19350.60640.54893939390.85169491531.39640625

    19360.67110.49378787880.7732203391.330625

    19370.69290.4019696970.67898305081.235

    19380.66980.28090909090.56898305081.11609375

    19390.60550.14242424240.44627118640.98046875

    19400.51050.00060606060.31796610170.8428125

    19410.3994-0.13015151520.19288135590.7275

    19420.2851-0.2380303030.07915254240.66125

    19430.1755-0.3163636364-0.01949152540.66015625

    19440.0732-0.3642424242-0.10288135590.7175

    1945-0.02-0.3827272727-0.17118644070.8040625

    1946-0.0978-0.2012048193-0.3721212121-0.22016949150.8815625

    1947-0.1487-0.2092771084-0.3296969697-0.23830508470.92046875

    1948-0.1594-0.1843373494-0.2516666667-0.21169491530.9109375

    1949-0.1223-0.1186746988-0.1406060606-0.13135593220.8615625

    1950-0.0421-0.0130120482-0.0095454545-0.00135593220.788125

    19510.06320.11963855420.11727272730.15949152540.70234375

    19520.16780.25554216870.21287878790.32440677970.60734375

    19530.24730.36734939760.25893939390.46847457630.5025

    19540.28790.43518072290.25378787880.57627118640.39078125

    19550.2890.45289156630.21106060610.6432203390.283125

    19560.25920.42638554220.15136363640.66966101690.19421875

    19570.20790.36518072290.08969696970.65457627120.135

    19580.1380.27518072290.02954545450.5935593220.10390625

    19590.04560.1568674699-0.03636363640.48271186440.08640625

    1960-0.07360.0110843373-0.11772727270.32457627120.06203125

    1961-0.2158-0.1536144578-0.21818181820.13372881360.01328125

    1962-0.3645-0.3185542169-0.3303030303-0.0661016949-0.06609375

    1963-0.4932-0.4601204819-0.4384848485-0.2474576271-0.169375

    1964-0.5744-0.5573493976-0.525-0.3879661017-0.2790625

    1965-0.5886-0.5985542169-0.5754545455-0.473559322-0.37375

    1966-0.5301-0.5814457831-0.5796969697-0.4976271186-0.4328125

    1967-0.4072-0.51-0.5316666667-0.4577966102-0.44296875

    1968-0.2389-0.391686747-0.4301515152-0.3554237288-0.40265625

    1969-0.0508-0.2381927711-0.2824242424-0.1989830508-0.32265625

    19700.1294-0.0677108434-0.1083333333-0.0074576271-0.22359375

    19710.27620.09481927710.06333333330.1901694915-0.12765625

    19720.37090.22313253010.20227272730.3611864407-0.0509375

    19730.40660.29843373490.28681818180.47864406780

    19740.39010.31578313250.30893939390.52745762710.0265625

    19750.33920.2850602410.2750.50745762710.03328125

    19760.27520.22530120480.20015151520.43016949150.02390625

    19770.21490.1567469880.1030303030.3149152542-0.00015625

    19780.16620.09530120480.0030303030.1847457627-0.03734375

    19790.12960.0506024096-0.08015151520.063220339-0.08171875

    19800.10220.0279518072-0.1274242424-0.0281355932-0.12078125

    19810.08280.03-0.1231818182-0.073220339-0.13765625

    19820.07210.0574698795-0.0615151515-0.0661016949-0.1171875

    19830.07160.10867469880.0492424242-0.0142372881-0.0521875

    19840.08270.18072289160.18712121210.06338983050.05390625

    19850.10680.27072289160.32621212120.14406779660.189375

    19860.14590.37746987950.44636363640.21186440680.3390625

    19870.20080.49879518070.54030303030.26288135590.48828125

    19880.26870.62771084340.61151515150.30237288140.62265625

    19890.34130.750.66742424240.33711864410.7278125

    19900.40750.84698795180.71242424240.36627118640.7928125

    19910.45730.90228915660.74575757580.38050847460.81390625

    19920.48680.91060240960.76545454550.36559322030.79921875

    19930.49870.88060240960.77287878790.31016949150.7678125

    19940.50030.83132530120.77378787880.21203389830.7428125

    19950.49990.78397590360.77651515150.07898305080.743125

    19960.50360.75469879520.7866666667-0.07542372880.77671875

    19970.51360.750.8042424242-0.2364406780.83921875

    19980.52920.76759036140.8248484848-0.39305084750.919375

    19990.54760.80072289160.8418181818-0.53932203391.00359375

    20000.56580.84144578310.8501515152-0.67338983051.08140625

    Autumn

    BjrnyaHopenSvalbard AirportNy-lesundJan Mayen

    1910

    1911

    1912-0.8359728507

    1913-0.8588687783

    1914-0.8690045249

    1915-0.8524886878

    1916-0.7954298643

    1917-0.6892307692

    1918-0.5357466063

    1919-0.3498190045

    19200.1625625-0.1562443439

    19210.14493750.01669683260.12125

    19220.10950.14488687780.17525

    19230.05443750.2148416290.2296666667

    1924-0.0150.22742081450.2838333333

    1925-0.08368750.19787330320.3381666667

    1926-0.12943750.15194570140.3946666667

    1927-0.1301250.11823529410.4563333333

    1928-0.0728750.11950226240.52675

    19290.040250.16624434390.6094166667

    19300.1940.25524886880.7065

    19310.36550.37266968330.8164166667

    19320.5318750.49968325790.9326666667

    19330.67443750.617601811.044

    19340.78106250.71135746611.1378333333

    19350.845750.7706787330.78600985221.2044166667

    19360.86756250.79085972850.73438423651.2388333333

    19370.84968750.77212669680.67315270941.2405

    19380.79850.71923076920.60083743841.2116666667

    19390.72343750.64049773760.51748768471.1569166667

    19400.6353750.54647058820.42551724141.0845

    19410.544750.44855203620.32980295571.0060833333

    19420.45950.3572398190.23709359610.9345833333

    19430.38481250.28167420810.1553201970.87975

    19440.32468750.22914027150.09285714290.8450833333

    19450.2840.20497737560.05773399010.82875

    19460.26856250.24123015870.2117194570.05655172410.8273333333

    19470.28268750.29587301590.24837104070.09231527090.8394166667

    19480.32618750.36476190480.30981900450.16290640390.86625

    19490.39293750.44694444440.38805429860.26054187190.9076666667

    19500.47231250.53793650790.47384615380.37330049260.9594166667

    19510.5521250.62924603170.55850678730.48738916261.01275

    19520.6220.70952380950.63529411760.59014778331.0591666667

    19530.6758750.76805555560.70031674210.67231527091.0951666667

    19540.71243750.79829365080.75226244340.72960591131.1249166667

    19550.73431250.79988095240.79158371040.7617733991.1566666667

    19560.74443750.77702380950.81773755660.77034482761.1949166667

    19570.7436250.7350.82751131220.755911331.23275

    19580.72831250.67682539680.81452488690.71665024631.2501666667

    19590.6918750.60214285710.77140271490.64911330051.2204166667

    19600.626750.50841269840.6920814480.55039408871.1210833333

    19610.5281250.39329365080.57443438910.420.9445

    19620.39618750.25706349210.42140271490.2617733990.70175

    19630.2378750.10452380950.24194570140.08477832510.4185833333

    19640.0665-0.0539682540.0509954751-0.09640394090.12725

    1965-0.09975-0.2029761905-0.1311312217-0.2628078818-0.142

    1966-0.24125-0.3237301587-0.282081448-0.3940394089-0.3649166667

    1967-0.34175-0.3987301587-0.3825791855-0.4732019704-0.5251666667

    1968-0.3916875-0.4172222222-0.4219004525-0.4913300493-0.6130833333

    1969-0.3909375-0.3793650794-0.4011312217-0.4501970443-0.62575

    1970-0.34725-0.2968650794-0.3323529412-0.3608374384-0.5674166667

    1971-0.2741875-0.1888492063-0.2340271493-0.2397536946-0.45025

    1972-0.1870625-0.0759920635-0.1255656109-0.1048768473-0.29525

    1973-0.1006250.0248809524-0.02325791860.0277832512-0.1305833333

    1974-0.0268750.10384920630.06149321270.14502463050.0130833333

    19750.0266250.15734126980.12230769230.23729064040.1099166667

    19760.05718750.18690476190.15764705880.29931034480.14675

    19770.0671250.19694444440.17027149320.33083743840.127

    19780.0626250.19369047620.16674208140.33635467980.06875

    19790.05206250.18373015870.1551583710.3230049261-0.0013333333

    19800.04343750.17246031750.14248868780.2978325123-0.0569166667

    19810.04206250.16218253970.13126696830.2643842365-0.0789166667

    19820.0486250.15067460320.11846153850.2219211823-0.0595

    19830.05918750.13230158730.09769230770.1673891626-0.0019166667

    19840.06756250.10170634920.06416289590.10.08325

    19850.06956250.05888888890.02018099550.02581280790.1835833333

    19860.06606250.0113888889-0.0231674208-0.04152709360.29025

    19870.06225-0.0280555556-0.0503167421-0.08546798030.3985833333

    19880.0628125-0.0483730159-0.0495022624-0.09477832510.50625

    19890.0675625-0.0461507937-0.0197285068-0.06970443350.6081666667

    19900.0715-0.02599206350.0296832579-0.02113300490.6944166667

    19910.070250.00527777780.08592760180.03729064040.7534166667

    19920.0673750.04634920630.14253393670.09798029560.7794166667

    19930.07650.1039682540.20366515840.16438423650.7785833333

    19940.116250.1890476190.28081447960.24694581280.77

    19950.20056250.30857142860.38429864250.35517241380.778

    19960.331250.46011904760.51633484160.49078817730.8216666667

    19970.49756250.63234126980.67009049770.64660098520.90725

    19980.681750.81023809520.83357466060.81064039411.0284166667

    19990.8663750.98063492060.99511312220.97128078821.1714166667

    20001.0386251.1351.14642533941.12049261081.3214166667

    Autumn

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    Bjrnya

    Hopen

    Svalbard Airport

    Ny-lesund

    Jan Mayen

    Standardised temperature

    Autumn

  • Johannessen, 2003Northern hemisphere temperature

  • PRECIPITATIONArctic Climatology Atlas, 2002JANUARYAPRIL

  • PRECIPITATIONArctic Climatology Atlas, 2002JULYOCTOBER

  • PRECIPITATION AT SVALBARD

  • PRECIPITATION GADIENTS COAST/INNLAND

  • MEASURING ARCTIC PRECIPITATION

    Diagram2

    111111

    1.022644776510.99941850741.10591163071.09536210711.0849132176

    1.08845773071.0267094710.99941850741.28338356451.3173866981.3522907415

    1.15850611931.06256946660.99941850741.48933542951.58441459751.6855636192

    1.23306251651.09968194820.99941850741.72833756251.90556775822.1009718009

    1.3124170381.13809066160.99941850742.00569372822.29181710832.6187575821

    1.39687847011.17784088030.99941850742.32755881632.75635732993.2641519848

    1.48677547131.21897945940.99941850742.7010754273.31505760314.0686042316

    1.58245785121.26155489021.00572709713.13453237413.98700371435.0713142251

    1.68429793141.30561735781.01207550823.63754862464.79515004596.3211427077

    1.79269199461.35121881.01846399224.22128675585.76710372257.878992182

    i=0.1 mm/h

    i=1 mm/h

    i=10 mm/h

    T=0 degC

    T= -5degC

    T= -10degC

    Wind speed (m/s)

    Correction factor

    Undercatch, Norwegian gauge

    IHB_EJF

    ks = exp{-0.04816 + 0.14883 vg + 0.009064 Tg - 0.007147 vg Tg}

    kl = eksp{-0.042303- 0.00101 ln(I) - 0.018177 vg ln(I) + 0.043931 vg

    vgiTgklkskl`ks`

    00.100.960.951.001.00

    10.101.051.111.051.11

    20.101.141.281.141.28

    30.101.241.491.241.49

    40.101.351.731.351.73

    50.101.482.011.482.01

    60.101.612.331.612.33

    70.101.752.701.752.70

    80.101.913.131.913.13

    90.102.083.642.083.64

    100.102.274.222.274.22

    01-50.960.911.001.00

    11-51.001.101.001.10

    21-51.051.321.051.32

    31-51.091.581.091.58

    41-51.141.911.141.91

    51-51.192.291.192.29

    61-51.252.761.252.76

    71-51.303.321.303.32

    81-51.363.991.363.99

    91-51.424.801.424.80

    101-51.495.771.495.77

    010-100.960.871.00

    110-100.961.081.08

    210-100.961.351.35

    310-100.961.691.69

    410-100.962.102.10

    510-100.972.622.62

    610-100.973.263.26

    710-100.974.074.07

    810-100.975.075.07

    910-100.976.326.32

    1010-100.987.887.88

    vgi=0.1i=1i=10Tg=0Tg=-5Tg=-10

    01.001.000.961.001.001.00

    11.051.020.961.111.101.08

    21.141.050.961.281.321.35

    31.241.090.961.491.581.69

    41.351.140.961.731.912.10

    51.481.190.972.012.292.62

    61.611.250.972.332.763.26

    71.751.300.972.703.324.07

    81.911.360.973.133.995.07

    92.081.420.973.644.806.32

    102.271.490.984.225.777.88

    i=10

    IHB_EJF

    010

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    i=0.1

    i=1

    i=10

    Wind speed (m/s)

    Corr.factor

    Undercatch

    Allerup

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    i=0.1

    i=1

    i=10

    Tg=0

    Tg=-5

    Tg=-10

    Wind speed (m/s)

    Corr.factor

    Undercatch Arctic

    Ark2

    kl = exp{-0.00101lnI - 0.012177vglnI + 0.034331vg + 0.007697 + c} ,

    vgiklkl (just)IHB

    10.11.021.021.05-0.042303

    20.11.091.091.14

    30.11.161.161.24

    40.11.231.231.35

    50.11.311.311.48

    60.11.401.401.61

    70.11.491.491.75

    80.11.581.581.91

    90.11.681.682.08

    100.11.791.792.27

    110.991.001.00

    211.031.031.05

    311.061.061.09

    411.101.101.14

    511.141.141.19

    611.181.181.25

    711.221.221.30

    811.261.261.36

    911.311.311.42

    1011.351.351.49

    1100.961.000.96

    2100.971.000.96

    3100.971.000.96

    4100.981.000.96

    5100.991.000.97

    6100.991.000.97

    7101.001.000.97

    8101.011.010.97

    9101.011.010.97

    10101.021.020.98

    Ark1

    1994SCENARIO 1 (T+ 2C)SCENARIO 2 (T+4 C)SCENARIO 3 (T+6 C)

    PRECIP.N0SPnor0SPNOR0SPC0N1SPnor1SPNOR1SPC1N2SPnor2SPNOR2SPC2N3SPnor3SPNOR3SPC3

    TYPEmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

    LIQUID60118.1127138.199187.2202.1223.7132263.4283.2318.1152293.5316.3357.1

    MIXED396065.585.63365.670.694.32026.329.3392437.641.260.2

    SOLID150174.3189.7338.5117119.2130.8244.29798.1107.8205.17367.975.2144.9

    ALL249352.4382.1562.2249372403.5562.2249387.9420.3562.2249399432.7562.2

    Ark3

    vgi=0.1 mm/hi=1 mm/hi=10 mm/hT=0 degCT= -5degCT= -10degC

    01.001.001.001.001.001.00

    11.021.001.001.111.101.08

    21.091.031.001.281.321.35

    31.161.061.001.491.581.69

    41.231.101.001.731.912.10

    51.311.141.002.012.292.62

    61.401.181.002.332.763.26

    71.491.221.002.703.324.07

    81.581.261.013.133.995.07

    91.681.311.013.644.806.32

    101.791.351.024.225.777.88

    Ark3

    111111

    1.022644776510.99941850741.10591163071.09536210711.0849132176

    1.08845773071.0267094710.99941850741.28338356451.3173866981.3522907415

    1.15850611931.06256946660.99941850741.48933542951.58441459751.6855636192

    1.23306251651.09968194820.99941850741.72833756251.90556775822.1009718009

    1.3124170381.13809066160.99941850742.00569372822.29181710832.6187575821

    1.39687847011.17784088030.99941850742.32755881632.75635732993.2641519848

    1.48677547131.21897945940.99941850742.7010754273.31505760314.0686042316

    1.58245785121.26155489021.00572709713.13453237413.98700371435.0713142251

    1.68429793141.30561735781.01207550823.63754862464.79515004596.3211427077

    1.79269199461.35121881.01846399224.22128675585.76710372257.878992182

    i=0.1 mm/h

    i=1 mm/h

    i=10 mm/h

    T=0 degC

    T= -5degC

    T= -10degC

    Wind speed (m/s)

    Correction factor

    Undercatch, Norwegian gauge

    True and fictitious precipitation trends in the Norwegian Arctic

    1Tittel + oversiktOK

    2KartNEI

    3Klimastatistikk, N-OK

    4temp + nedb trend i norsk arktisOK

    5MlefeilOK

    6Evap + wettingOK

    7Korr algoritmer, DNMI-mlerOK

    8Figur med korr.faktor (DNMI-mler)OK

    9Korr.faktor TretyakovOK

    10Trender i liquid, solid, mixed (grafer)OK

    11Endring i nedb.typer 1975-2001 (tabell)OK

    12Trend i corr.factorOK

    13Trender i nedbr (ukorr + korr)

    14Nedbrslag fra temp

    15Omslagstemp

    16Scenarier

    17Konklusjoner (inkl. konsekvenser for ferskvannsbalanse)

  • Annual fractions of liquid, solid and mixed precipitation at Svalbard Airport

  • SNOWDEPTH OVER THE ICEArctic Climatology Atlas, 2002JANUARYAPRIL

  • SNOWDEPTH OVER THE ICEArctic Climatology Atlas, 2002JULYOCTOBER

  • SURFACE SHORTWAVE RADIATION: SWCurry et al., 1996OBSERVATIONAL BASED Curry and Ebert (1992) SATELITE BASED (ISCCP, 1985) Rossow and Chang (1995) JUNE80N

  • DOWNWARD LONGWAVE RADIATION AT SURFACE : LWCurry et al., 1996OBSERVATIONAL BASED Curry and Ebert (1992) SATELITE BASED (ISCCP, 1985) Rossow and Chang (1995) JUNE80N

  • CLOUD FRACTIONCurry et al., 1996SATELLITE BASED (ISCCP) 60-90NOBSERVATIONALLY BASED OBSERVATIONALLY BASED(varying sky illumination corrected, Hahn et al., 1994) SATELLITE BASED (ISCCP, new cloud detection algorithm)

  • TOTAL CLOUDCOVERAPRILArctic Climatology Atlas, 2002JANUARYLOW CLOUDCOVER

  • TOTAL CLOUDCOVERArctic Climatology Atlas, 2002JULYLOW CLOUDCOVER

  • CLOUDS1. Norwegian Sea RegimeHigh cloudiness all year roundRelatively large amounts of cumulus in winter caused by warm water under cold air2. East Siberian RegimeVery clear in winter due to anticycloneVery dryCirrus dominates3. Polar Ocean RegimePronounced spring/summer maximum due to stratusForms over cooler ice surface (warm advection. latent heat cooling)

  • LOCAL EFFECT OF CLOUDS ON THE RADIATION BUDGET CLOUD RADIATIVE FORCING at a given level z is the difference in net radiation between cloudy and clear sky usually given in W/m2 LW longwave radiationSW shortwave radiationf

  • LOCAL EFFECT OF CLOUDS ON THE SURFACE RADIATION BUDGETCurry et al., 1996JUNE80N SURFACEOBSERVATIONALLY BASED Curry and Ebert (1992) POSITIVE: WARMING AT SURFACE

    NEGATIVE: COOLING AT SURFACE

  • LOCAL EFFECT OF CLOUDS ON THE SURFACE RADIATION BUDGETCurry et al., 1996JUNE80N SURFACEOBSERVATIONAL BASED Curry and Ebert (1992) SATELITE BASED (ISCCP, 1985) Rossow and Chang (1995) NET CLOUD FORCINGCRF POSITIVE: CLOUDS CAUSE WARMING AT SURFACE MOST OF THE YEAR EXCEPT SUMMERCRF NEGATIVE: CLOUDS CAUSE COOLING AT SURFACE DURING SUMMERLarge uncertainty!

  • LINKS BETWEEN ENERGY BUDGET AND CLIMATOLOGYNakamura and Oort, 1973 ANNUAL SUMMER WINTERMost times of the year two big terms are:1. Heating by lateral advection 2. Cooling by longwave radiation to spaceIn summer:1. Heating by lateral advection2. Cooling by surface (latent heat from ice/snow melting)REMEMBER THE TRANSTORT IS A VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL INTEGRALSUMMARY:

  • WINTERTIME ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ANDLOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE

  • LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION Semipermanent Highs and Lows The Arctic is characterized by "semipermanent" patterns of high and low pressure. These patterns are semipermanent because they appear in charts of long-term average surface pressure.

    Aleutian Low This semipermanent low pressure center is located near the Aleutian Islands. Most intense in winter, the Aleutian Low is characterized by many strong cyclones. Travelling cyclones formed in the subpolar latitudes in the North Pacific usually slow down and reach maximum intensity in the area of the Aleutian Low.

    Icelandic Low This low pressure center is located near Iceland, usually between Iceland and southern Greenland. Most intense during winter, in summer, it weakens and splits into two centers, one near Davis Strait and the other west of Iceland. Like its counterpart the Aleutian Low, it reflects the high frequency of cyclones and the tendency for these systems to be strong. In general, migratory lows slow down and intensify in the vicinity of the Icelandic Low.

  • ATMOSPHERIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION Siberian High The Siberian High is an intense, cold anticyclone that forms over eastern Siberia in winter. Prevailing from late November to early March, it is associated with frequent cold air outbreaks over east Asia.

    Beaufort High The Beaufort High is a high pressure center or ridge over the Beaufort Sea present mainly in winter. The North American High is a relatively weak area of high pressure that covers most of North America during winter. This pressure system tends to be centered over the Yukon, but is not as well-defined as its continental counterpart, the Siberian High.

  • Low level T is not representative?

    Trends in other budget terms?(sea-ice, radiation)A PARADOX?

  • HOW WELL DO WE KNOW THE SURFACE RADIATION BUDGET?

  • OBSERVATIONAL ESTIMATES THATCOVERS 70-90NThe ECMWF (ERA40) reanalysis 3-dimensional variational assimilation (T159L60)Raw satellite radiances assimilated into the systemSatellite data from the Vertical Temperature ProfileRadiometer (VTPR) starting in 1973, TIROS OperationalVertical Sounder (TOVS) data from late 1978

    NCAR-NCEP reanalysis 3-dimensional variational assimilation (T62L28)No direct assimilation of radiative fluxes.Estimate the vertical temperature and humidity profiles through a series of empirical and statistical relationshipsSatellite data from TIROS TOVS data from late 1978

  • OBSERVATIONAL ESTIMATES THATCOVERS 70-90NSRB V2: Version 2 of the Surface Radiation BudgetISCCP DX (30km res.) top of atmosphere (TOA) data and cloudsAtmospheric water vapor: 4-D data assimilation using the Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS-1).

    POLAR ISCCP Version 1 polar radiation fluxes (Key et al. 1999).ISCCP-D1 (280km res.) data top of atmosphere (TOA) data and cloudsAtmospheric water vapor: TOVS Pathfinder and ISCCP profiles

    Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Polar Pathfinder dataset (APP-X), Version 1 (Key, 2001). Extension of the standard clear sky products using the Cloud and Surface Parameter Retrieval (CASPR) system

  • 225 W/m299 W/m2260 W/m245 W/m2SWLWSWLWLW + SW 324 W/m2

    LW + SW 305 W/m2SOURCE:ERA40, SRB V2, ISCCPLW 70%SW 30%

  • Longwave radiation as an Arctic net energy sink ranges from 28 to 52 W/m2 There is no consensus on the seasonal cycle of net LW radiation. Shortwave radiation as a net energy source ranges from 43 to 50 W/m2 160

    140

    120

    100

    80

    60

    40

    20

    0

    SURFACE LW-LWSURFACE SW-SWHOW MUCH NET ENERGY IS AVAILABEL AT THE SURFACE? 0

    -10

    -20

    -30

    -40

    -50

    -60

    -70W/m2W/m2

  • HOW WELL DO WE KNOW THE INCOMMINGENERGY? Annual downward LW radiation estimates range from 205 to 230 W/m2 The spread in monthly values is typically 1030 W/m2 The amplitude of the seasonal cycle is not well constrained. ERA40 has the largest seasonal cycle265300SURFACE LWDIFFERENCE IN SURFACE LW320

    300

    280

    260

    240

    220

    200

    180

    160W/m240

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    -30

    -40

    W/m2

  • The NCEP reanalyses has a strong bias in downward shortwave radiation Annual downward SW radiation estimates range from 87 to 128 W/m2. The monthly spread is typically 1020 W/m2 during summerSURFACE SWDIFFERENCE IN SURFACE SWHOW WELL DO WE KNOW THE INCOMMINGENERGY?300

    250

    200

    150

    100

    50

    0W/m2

    20

    0

    -20

    -40

    -60

    -80

    -100

    W/m2

  • Annual downward radiation estimates range from 306 to 332 W/m2. The monthly spread is typically 1025 W/m2HOW WELL DO WE KNOW THE SURFACE RADIATION BUDGET?SURFACE LW +SWDIFFERENCE IN SURFACE LW+SW600

    500

    400

    300

    200

    W/m2

    30

    10

    0

    -10

    -30

    -50

    -70

    W/m2

  • HOW WELL IS IT SIMULATED WITHCOUPLED GCMs?

  • THE SURFACE RADIATION BUDGET IN COUPLED GCMsINCOMING LONGWAVE ENERGY

  • THE SURFACE RADIATION BUDGET IN COUPLED GCMsINCOMING SHORWAVE ENERGY

  • INCOMING ENERGYLWSWW/m2W/m2IPCC ENSEMBLE MEAN

    (IPCC AR4, 12 MODELS)218 W/m212.089 W/m2 8.0307 W/m212.1

  • ARCTIC CLIMATOLOGYATMOSPHERIC HEAT TRANSPORT

    HOW IMPORTANT IS IT ?

    ARCTIC ATM-SURFACE SYSTEM HAS A NET LOSS OF ENERGY Hartmann, 1994

  • No Solar Radiation in WinterUpward loss of heat from surface and atmosphere by longwave radiationHeat must be replaced or else temperatures would drop to near absolute zero.

    Where does the heat come from that replaces what is lost from longwave radiation to space?HORIZONTAL HEAT TRANSPORTARCTIC CLIMATOLOGY

  • ARCTIC CLIMATOLOGY

    ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE SYSTEMS WINTERTIME

    The three surface terms constitute the surface fluxIncrease in annual 2m temp and precipitation for the different BCM experiments (E76 E80) and15 CMIP models.Calculation: CMIP2_EXP-mean(CNTRL) (CNTRL over same 80 yrs as CMIP2 EXP)

Recommended

View more >