coal in the united statespower g $/ 0% then (1997) now (2013) future (2020) 11 u.s. shale gas...
TRANSCRIPT
Coal in the United StatesEffects of Regulations and Shale GasCl C l D 2013 I t ti l S i J
Jarad Daniels
Clean Coal Day – 2013 International Symposium ‐ Japan
Jarad Daniels
Office of Clean Coal
September 5, 2013p ,
World Coal ProductionChina – U.S.A – India – Australia ‐ Indonesia
8
9
World Coal Production
6
7
Tons
4
5
llion
Sho
rt T
1
2
3Bil
01980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
China U.S.A India Australia Indonesia World
2
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration
U.S. Coal ProductionHistorical and Projections
301200
U.S. Coal Production
20
25
800
1000
BTU
Tonn
es
10
15
400
600
Qua
drillion B
lion Metric T
5
10
200
400 Q
Mill
00
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
U.S. Total (Metric Tonnes) U.S. Total (Quads)
3Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration ‐ 2013
U.S. Electricity GenerationyHistorical Perspective
4000
4500
U.S. Electricity Generation
3000
3500
h
2000
2500
Billion
kWh
500
1000
1500
01950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Coal Petroleum Natural Gas Nuclear Renwables Total
4
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration
The President’s All‐of‐the‐Above Energy Strategy
“This country needs an all‐out, all‐of‐the‐above strategy that develops every available source of
American energy. A strategy that’s cleaner, cheaper, and full of new jobs.”
President Barack ObamaState of the Union Address
January 24, 2012
5
Coal: Critical to Our Energy SupplyCoal: Critical to Our Energy Supply…
Coal will remain the largest energy source for electricity generationsource for electricity generation through 2040…
B ill b 34% f l d COBut will be 34% of energy‐related CO2emissions by 2030
Source: EIA AEO2013
6 6
107 QBtu / Year
Energy Demand 201098 QBtu / Year
Energy Demand 2035
GasGas26%26%
CoalCoal20%20%
GasGas25%25%
CoalCoal21%21%
Q /77% Fossil Energy
+ 9%
Q /83% Fossil Energy
26%26%
NuclearNuclear8%8%
OilOil32%32%
20%20%25%25%
NuclearNuclear9%9%
OilOil37%37%
21%21% + 9%
United StatesUnited States
RenewablesRenewables14%14%
32%32%RenewablesRenewables
8%8%
37%37%
5,634 mmt CO5,634 mmt CO225,758 mmt CO5,758 mmt CO22
741 QBtu / Year80% Fossil Energy
505 QBtu / Year 81% Fossil Energy
GasGas23%23%
NuclearNuclear
CoalCoal30%30%
GasGas22%22% NuclearNuclear
6%6%
CoalCoal27%27%
WorldWorld
+ 47%
NuclearNuclear6%6%
RenewablesRenewables14%14%
OilOil27%27%
6%6%
RenewablesRenewables13%13%
OilOil32%32%
30 190 t CO30 190 t CO 44 090 t CO44 090 t CO
WorldWorld
7
14%14%
Sources: U.S. data from EIA, AEO 2012: World data from IEA, World Energy Outlook 2012
30,190 mmt CO30,190 mmt CO22 44,090 mmt CO44,090 mmt CO22
Drivers: EPA Regulations Impacting CoalIssue Federal Regulation/Compliance
Air SOx & NOx crossing state lines Cross‐State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR)finalized 7.7.2011; amendments proposed 10.2011; supplemental rule expected early 2012; 12.30.2011, DC Circuit
Near‐term (through 2015‐2016) Compliance Horizon for EPA regulations may create potential localized reliability issues
stay of CSAPR; 8.21.2012, DC Circuit decision vacating CSAPR (subject to possible EPA challenge)
Compliance: Unknown
Mercury and Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs)
Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) Rule for Electric Generation Units
reliability issues
Local reliability issues can be managed with timely notice and coordination on retirement and retrofit Pollutants (HAPs) Electric Generation Units
Finalized effective: 4.16.2012Compliance: ~2015
GHG emissions GHG New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) Proposed rule comments currently under review (new baseload
decisions
States and regions will play a valuable role in addressing EPA regulation Proposed rule comments currently under review (new baseload
and intermediate load units potentially impacted as of proposal date)
Compliance: Unknown
Water Cooling Water Intake CWA §316(b)
impacts
Non‐transmission alternatives can help alleviate reliability impacts h / h il blStructures – impact on aquatic
life final rule expected 11.2013
Compliance: Within 8 Years
Surface water discharges; Surface impoundments
Steam Electric Effluent Limitations Guidelinesproposed rule went out for public comment 4.2013
Compliance: Unknown
when/where available
EPA regulations are only one aspect impacting the future of our electricity systemCompliance: Unknown
Waste Coal Combustion Residuals (e.g., coal ash, boiler slag)
Coal Combustion Residuals (CCR) Rule proposed rule comments currently under review
Compliance: Unknown
system
8
Projected Change in Capacity j g p yBy Fuel Type
120
Cummulative GenerationAdditions & Retirements
80
100
city (G
W)
40
60
mmer Cap
ac
20
40
Net Sum
02013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038
Cummulative Coal Retirements Cummulative Coal Additions
Cummulative NGCC Retirements Cummulative NGCC Additions
9
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration ‐ 2013
CCS Specific Regulations p gCO2 Injection
f k lSafe Drinking Water Act• Two “classes” of injection, pertain to CO2,
Class II covers EOR and Class VI covers l t CO t
Clean Air Act• Pursuant to the Clean Air Act, EPA collects
and disseminates data on economy of CO2 i i th h it M d tlong‐term CO2 storage
• Class II has been governing CO2 EOR for decades
• Class VI was finalized in December 2010
emissions through its Mandatory Reporting Rule
– Two sub‐parts, RR & UU, apply to CO2 injection
– RR applies to geologic sequestration of CO2, Class • Class VI was finalized in December 2010, and has been accompanied by a series of guidance documents pertaining to various aspects of compliance
VI wells and Class II wells that “opt‐in” to reporting
– RR uses a mass balance approach to calculate stored CO2
UU li t th i j ti f CO t i ll– Site Characterization
– Area of Review and Corrective Action
– Testing and Monitoring
– Project Plan Development
– UU applies to other injection of CO2, typically business as usual EOR, and only requires reporting of quantities of delivered CO2
j p
– Well Construction
– Financial Responsibility
– Well Plugging, Post‐Injection Site Care and Site Closure (draft)
10
Capture Technology ProgressPerformance Drives Cost
35%
40%
ut]
Energy Penalty Reductions
30%
Plan
t Outpu
~ $150/Tonne
Energy Penalty Reductions Enable Cost Reductions
20%
25%
enalty [%
of
~ $60/Tonne
15%
eneration Pe
< $40/Tonne
5%
10%
Power Ge $ /
0%Then(1997)
Now(2013)
Future (2020)
11
(1997) (2013) (2020)
U.S. Shale Gas ProductionThe Increasing Role of Shale Gas
30 00
35.00
U.S. Gas Production
25.00
30.00
Feet
15.00
20.00
illion Cu
bic F
5.00
10.00
Tri
‐1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Offshore Onshore Conventional Tight Gas Shale Gas Total Gas Production
12
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration ‐ 2013
Historical and Projected Fuel PricesHenry Hub Spot Natural Gas PriceU.S. Average Minemouth Coal Price
12.00
Fuel Prices
8.00
10.00
U)
6.00
($/M
MBT
U
2.00
4.00
‐1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
U.S. Average Minemouth Coal Price Henry Hub Spot NG Price
13
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration ‐ 2013
U.S. Production ComparisonpCoal – Natural Gas
30
35
Total U.S. Production
25
30
BTU
15
20
Qua
drillion B
5
10
Q
01990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Gas Production Coal Production
14
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration ‐ 2013
Electricity GenerationyCoal vs. Natural Gas
45%
50%
Electricty Generation
2012 ‐ 1,547 Billion kWh
30%
35%
40%
ration
20%
25%
30%
f Total Gen
er
2012 ‐ 1,218 Billion kWh
5%
10%
15%% of
0%
5%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
% Coal % Natural Gas
15
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration ‐ 2013
Price based CompetitionPrice‐based Competition
l h d h l l h In recent years, natural gas has come into dispatch‐level competition with coal as the cost of operating natural gas‐fired generators has neared the cost of operating coal‐fired generators. A number of factors led to the growing competition… A build‐out of efficient combined‐cycle capacity during the early 2000s, which
in general was used infrequently until recentlyg q y y
Expansion of the natural gas pipeline network, reducing uncertainty about the availability of natural gas
Gains in natural gas production from domestic shale formations that have Gains in natural gas production from domestic shale formations that have contributed to falling natural gas prices
Rising coal prices
16
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration
Electric Power SectorCompetition between Coal and Natural Gas
l f d l d f f From 1990 to 2011, natural gas‐fired plants accounted for 77% of capacity, but only 18% of actual generation
h l f f From 2010 to 2013, we have seen natural gas increase from 24% to 27% of total generation, and it’s expected to increase to 30% by the 2030’s
C l i h l f l i i i b i h f Coal remains the largest source of electricity generation, but its share of total electricity generation, which was 51% in 2003, is projected to decline from 42% in 2011 to 35% in 2040
Dispatch depends largely on the relative operating costs for each type of generation, of which fuel costs are a major portion– There is significant uncertainty about future coal and natural gas prices
17
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration
Parting Thoughtsg g• Shale gas has been a game changer
i l i l i f h i• New Environmental Protection Agency regulations further constrain the potential for new coal builds
C b C d S (CCS) i lik l i d• Carbon, Capture and Storage (CCS) is likely required on any new coal plant built in the U.S.
E l d f CCS i h U S ill lik l k d f• Early adopters of CCS in the U.S. will likely take advantage of additional revenues by selling their CO2 for use in Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)– Carbon, Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS)
• Advanced technology solutions are necessary to help the U.S. have t l f ta strong coal future
18
EXTRA SLIDESEXTRA SLIDES
19
Carbon Capture: Not Just for Coal, But Also Natural Gas
“But I also want to work with this Congress to encourage the research g gand technology that helps natural gas burn even cleaner and protects our air and our water.”
President Barack ObamaState of the Union Messagef gFebruary 2013
20 20
Henry Hub Spot Natural Gas Pricesy pHistorical and Projected
12.00
Henry Hub Spot Natural Gas Price
8.00
10.00
6.00
$/MMBT
U)
4.00
($
‐
2.00
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
21
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration ‐ 2013
U.S. Electricity GenerationyFuture Projections
El t i it G ti
5000
6000
Electricity Generation
4000
5000
Wh
2000
3000
Billion
kW
1000
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Coal Natural Gas Total U.S. Generation Petroleum Nuclear Renewables
22
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration ‐ 2013
U.S. Coal ExportspTotal – Asia ‐ Europe
160
180
U.S. Coal Exports
120
140
Tons
80
100
illion Short T
20
40
60Mi
02010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Total U.S. Exports U.S. exports to Asia U.S. Exports to Europe
23
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration ‐ 2013
Total Coal ExportspAustralia – China – Indonesia – U.S.
600
700
Coal Exports by Country
500
600
Tons
300
400
illion Short T
100
200
Mi
02010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
U.S. exports Australia Exports China Exports Indonesia Exports
24
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration ‐ 2013
U.S. Electricity GenerationyBy Fuel Type
2,500.00
Electricity Generation, 2008‐2040
1 500 00
2,000.00
h
1,000.00
1,500.00
Billion
kWh
500.00
‐2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038
Coal Natural Gas
25
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration ‐ 2013
Fuel Prices and GenerationFuel Prices and Generation
9.00
10.00
70.00
80.00
Power Generation and Fuel Costs
6 00
7.00
8.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
U)
4.00
5.00
6.00
30.00
40.00
($/M
MBT
U
($/M
Wh)
1.00
2.00
3.00
10.00
20.00
‐
1.00
0.002008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038
Coal Natural Gas Henry Hub Spot NG Price Minemouth Coal Price
26
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration ‐ 2013
Delivered Fuel PriceTotal Generation by Fuel Type
9.00
10.002,500
Average Delivered Fuel Price & Electricty Generation
6 00
7.00
8.00
1 500
2,000
U)h
4.00
5.00
6.00
1,000
1,500
($/M
MBT
U
Billion
kWh
1.00
2.00
3.00
500
0.00
1.00
‐2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038
Coal Generation Natural Gas Generation Coal Price Natural Gas Price
27
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration ‐ 2013
Fuel CompetitionpCost of Generating – Spot Natural Gas Prices
9.00
10.00
70.00
80.00
Power Generation and Fuel Costs
6 00
7.00
8.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
U)
4.00
5.00
6.00
30.00
40.00
($/M
MBT
U
($/M
Wh)
1.00
2.00
3.00
10.00
20.00
‐
1.00
0.002008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038
Coal Natural Gas Henry Hub Spot NG Price
28
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration ‐ 2013
Coal‐fired plants continue to be the largest source of U.S. electricity generation (Source: EIA AEO13)
Wh
Billion
kW
B
29
Meeting global climate mitigation targets will likely require CCS g g g g y qIEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives:
CO2
aton
s of C
Gig
Source: International Energy Agency
30
Source: International Energy Agency