update from u.s. - shale 2petroleumclub.ro/downloads/shalegas/chris_faulkner... · • shale gas...

Chris Faulkner

CEO, Breitling Oil and Gas

Shale Gas World Europe 2013

Warsaw, Poland

Update from U.S. - Shale 2.0

www.breitlingoilandgas.com

0 50 100 150 200 250

Marcellus Haynesville Eagle Ford Montney Barnett Fayetteville Bossier Woodford Horn River Granite Wash Antrim Utica (US) Permian Delaware Niobrara Permian Midland Mississippi Lime Bakken (US) Anadarko tight New Albany Cardium

Unconventional Gas Play Rankings

Remaining Recoverable Gas Resources (Tcf)

Dry gas

NGL


0 6 8 18 20

Unconventional Oil Play Rankings

Recoverable Oil Resources (billion barrels) Bakken (U.S.) Eagle Ford Permian Niobrara Utica (U.S.) Anadarko tight Mississippi Lime Cardium Bakken (Canada) Tuscaloosa Granite Wash Woodford Monterey Alberta Bakken Montney Marcellus Barnett Utica (Canada)

2 4

Developing

10 12 14 16

Contingent+Prospective


Marcellus Resource


bcf

ed

16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2

Marcellus Production Forecast

0

2006 Other(s)

Anadarko

National Fuel Gas

Cabot Oil and Gas

2010 Ultra Petroleum

Southwestern Energy

Noble Energy

EQT Corporation

2014 Antero Resources

ExxonMobil

CONSOL Energy

Range Resources

2018 Shell

Talisman Energy

Statoil

Chesapeake


Marcellus Economic Analysis

Case Name Cabot Oil and Gas (Susquehanna County, PA) Chesapeake (North Pennsylvania) Consol Energy/Noble Energy (Joint Venture - Wet Gas) Range Resources (NE Pennsylvania) Breitling Oil and Gas (Super rich area) Talisman Energy (Pennsylvania)

Type Well Well 30-day IP EUR Spacing CAPEX NPV (mmcfe/d) (bcfe) (acres) ($mm) ($mm) 11.19 10.56 80 6.5 3.19 6.06 5.56 90 6.0 0.84 4.00 5.56 80 6.5 1.52 6.15 6.28 80 4.5 1.52 3.96 5.12 80 4.7 4.25 4.05 4.61 80 5.0 0.10

Breakeven gas price ($/mcfe) 2.99 3.56 3.26 3.20 2.24 3.93


Bakken/Three Forks Resource (U.S.)


tho

usa

nd

bo

ed

1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200

0

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Bakken Production Forecast

Unawarded Acres*

ExxonMobil Marathon Oil Kodiak Oil and Gas Northern Oil & Gas

Continental Resources

Statoil ConocoPhillips Breitling Oil and Gas Oasis Petroleum

Hess

Whiting Petroleum EOG Resources Apache Other(s)


Bakken Economic Analysis

Case Name 30-day IP (boe/d)

30 Year - EUR (Mboe)

Well Spacing (acres)

CAPEX ($mm)

Type Well Break even oil NPV ($mm) price ($/boe)

ConocoPhillips (Core Area)

Continental Resources (Nesson Anticline Area) EOG Resources (Core Area)

ExxonMobil (Nesson Anticline)

Hess (East Nesson)

Marathon Oil (Ajax and Hector Area)

Marathon Oil (Diomedes Area)

Marathon Oil (Myrmidon and Aeneas)

Oasis Petroleum (East Nesson)

Breitling Oil and Gas (West Williston)

Statoil (Rough Rider Area)

Whiting Petroleum (Lewis and Clark Area)

Breitling Oil and Gas (Sanish and Parshall Area)

660

1052

808

516

993

491

411

682

635

597

903

418

575

431

593

601

344

551

501

463

550

437

373

435

394

667

160

160

320

140

160

320-420

640

320-420

320

320

160

640

213

8.5

9.0

8.0

5.0

9.5

8.6

8.2

9.0

8.7

10.3

8.9

7.0

6.0

4.26

6.92

8.14

4.13

5.92

5.40

4.14

5.99

3.98

1.78

3.77

3.93

9.75

54.16

45.07

40.69

43.68

50.03

49.61

53.70

48.36

55.80

72.38

57.69

51.77

42.11


Permian Resource


tho

usa

nd

bo

ed

1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200

0

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Permian Production Forecast

Chevron

Pioneer Natural Resources Laredo Petroleum Energen EP Energy

Concho Resources

Apache ConocoPhillips Shell BHP Billiton

Devon Energy

Oxy Cimarex Energy Anadarko EOG Resources


Permian Economic Analysis

Case Name Cimarex (Bone Spring/Northern Delaware) Concho Resources (Avalon Shale/Delaware Basin) Concho Resources (Bone Spring/Northern Delaware) Devon Energy (Bone Spring) EOG Resources (Leonard Shale/Bone Spring Sands) OXY (Bone Spring/Avalon) Approach Resources (Wolffork) Concho Resources (Wolfberry) Devon Energy (Wolfberry) EOG Resources (Wolfcamp Shale) EP Energy (Wolfcamp) Laredo Petroleum (Wolfberry) Breitling Oil and Gas (Wolfberry) Breitling Oil and Gas (Wolfcamp horizontal)

30-day IP (boe/d) 618 486 622

545 559

556 151 113 150 540 490 143 114 567

EUR (Mboe) 551 410 515

531 446

469 110 140 171 420 444 138 141 511

Well Spacing (acres) 160 80 80

80 160

80 20 20-40 20-40 160 90 40 40 140

CAPEX ($mm) 7.0 6.0 6.0

5.6 6.0

6.5 1.2 1.8 2.5 5.5 8.2 2.2 1.6 7.0

Type Well NPV ($mm) 6.82 1.17 4.14

8.18 2.16

4.47 1.33 1.07 1.27 1.76 3.22 0.76 1.35 5.37

Breakevenoil price ($/boe) 41.35 69.69 43.47

33.42 59.53

48.06 38.43 50.83 53.85 62.12 58.84 61.10 44.06 46.35


Eagle Ford Resource


Eagle Ford Economics

Case Name BHP Billiton (Black Hawk) Anadarko/KNOC (Joint Venture) Chesapeake EOG Resources (Oil, Eastern Province) EOG Resources (Oil, Western Province) Talisman/Statoil (Joint Venture, Liquids Rich Area) Breitling Oil (Oil Rich Area) Marathon Oil (Volatile Oil) Pioneer Natural Resources (Joint venture with Reliance)

30-day IP EUR (boe/d) (Mboe) 1973.21 1066.8 533.51 450.3 631.58 543.9

996.15 506.3

662.67 492.2

1166.50 662.2

1403.66 605.9 651.45 643.0

1966.97 1000.0

Type Well Well Breakeven Breakeven Spacing CAPEX NPV gas price oil price (acres) ($mm) ($mm) ($/mcfe) ($/boe) 90-100 9.9 10.50 2.00 38.25 80 5.8 2.13 2.80 58.63 80 7.5 3.94 2.50 53.09

90 6.5 6.12 1.90 41.36

90 6.5 5.31 2.00 44.49

90 9.0 1.75 3.30 68.13

80 7.0 5.81 2.10 43.47 160 8.0 5.98 2.10 46.00

140 8.0 9.87 1.90 33.34


Tho

usa

nd

s B

bl/

d

6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Crude Oil & Condensate Production Forecast Other plays

Utica

Cardium

Anadarko & Panhandle Plays

Mississippi Lime

Niobrara

Permian Basin Tight Oil

Eagle Ford

Bakken


U.S gas price stability - As supply grows, price remains low, stable

Lower 48 gas supply has grown by 20 Bcfd since 2000, up 50%

• Driven by shale and infrastructure development post 2005

• Result: lower, more stable pricing leading to a manufacturing renaissance

Cold weather

Hurricanes Katrina & Rita Strong global economy Price run-up with crude oil


U.S. Shale Gas/Oil – 2013 pad drilling developments

(Dense Population)


Breitling King George Field (Barnett Combo)

Average decline curves from the major U.S. fields

19

million cubic feet per year

1

Adam Sieminski , FLAME

March 13, 2013


Update: U.S. Shale Gas/Oil – Longer, Targeted Laterals.


Closing Comments • Shale gas 2.0 revolution in U.S. – Shale gas is a game changer: U.S. no longer destined to be gas

importer. Will be exporting within 3 years

– Large coal to gas shift largest reduction in CO2 emissions in

the world. New U.S. Carbon Bill

– Low gas prices stimulus for particular industrial industries

– Will this be sustainable and make U.S. more competitive?

– Impact on world gas supply – demand/competition balance via LNG

– Transportation fuel? If so, when?

• Meanwhile the EU evolution…2.0? – There is shale gas potential, but commercial viability to be proven

– Current coal-to-gas price ratio harms gas power plants

– Calls for lenient position towards shale gas to support industry

– Diverse viewpoints country to country - politically driven

– Community backlash/early mover environmental movement

– Will shale gas be a game changer here. If so, when?


Challenges for Europe: U.S. 2008?


Thank you. Q/A

Chris Faulkner

CEO, Breitling Oil and Gas

Shale Gas World Europe 2013

Warsaw, Poland

update from u.s. - shale 2petroleumclub.ro/downloads/shalegas/chris_faulkner... · • shale gas...

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