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Examensarbete i Hållbar Utveckling 170

Climatic Change, Irrigation Water Crisis and Food

Security in Pakistan

Climatic Change, Irrigation Water Crisis and Food Security in Pakistan

Muhammad Asif

Muhammad Asif

Uppsala University, Department of Earth SciencesMaster Thesis E, in Sustainable Development, 30 creditsPrinted at Department of Earth Sciences,Geotryckeriet, Uppsala University, Uppsala, 2013.

Master’s ThesisE, 30 credits

Supervisor: Roger Herbert Evaluator:Prabhakar Sharma

Examensarbete i Hållbar Utveckling 170

Climatic Change, Irrigation Water Crisis and Food

Security in Pakistan

Muhammad Asif

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Acknowledgment

I am extremely grateful to my dissertation supervisor Associate Professor Roger Herbert for his valuable feedback and guidance, which helps me to complete this Master thesis. Alongside I also want to thank my dissertation evaluator Prabhakar Sharma for his scholarly input. Besides evaluator, I would like to express my heartiest thanks to my thesis coordinator Dr. Elisabeth Almgren for her continuous support and coordination throughout the process.

Foremost thanks to all my family members for their patience, understanding and unconditional support during my studies.

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Contents Acknowledgment ............................................................................................................................................i

Contents ........................................................................................................................................................ ii List of Tables................................................................................................................................................ iii

List of Figures .............................................................................................................................................. iii Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................................iv

Summary .......................................................................................................................................................vi 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 1

1.1. The Statement of the Problem ........................................................................................................ 2

1.2. Research Objectives ....................................................................................................................... 3

1.3. Significance of the Study ............................................................................................................... 3

2. Research Methods ................................................................................................................................ 4

3. Climate Change, Water Scarcity and Food Security ......................................................................... 5 3.1. Water Scarcity and Food Insecurity ............................................................................................... 5

3.2. Climate Change and Food Security in South Asia ......................................................................... 6

3.3. Climate Change and Food Security in Pakistan ............................................................................. 7

3.4. The Food Security Challenge ......................................................................................................... 7

4. Nature of Irrigation System in Pakistan ............................................................................................. 8 4.1. Historical Development of Irrigation System ................................................................................ 8

4.2. Irrigation System of Pakistan ......................................................................................................... 9

4.3. Sources of Water .......................................................................................................................... 12

4.3.1. Surface Water Resources in Pakistan .................................................................................. 12 4.3.2. Groundwater........................................................................................................................ 12

4.4. Trans-boundary Water Conflict ................................................................................................... 13

4.4.1. The Indus Waters Treaty ............................................................................................................ 14 4.4.2. Apportionment of Indus Waters Accord ............................................................................ 14

5. Climate Change and Water Resources ............................................................................................. 16 5.1. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Rising Temperature ................................................................. 16

5.2. Rising Temperature and Changing Rainfall Pattern .................................................................... 17

5.3. Climatic Change and Irrigation Water Crisis ............................................................................... 19

5.4. Natural Calamities and Water Resources .................................................................................... 20

6. Climate Change and Food Shortage in Pakistan ............................................................................. 21 6.1. Nature and Extent of Food Shortage ............................................................................................ 21

6.2. Types of Food in Pakistan............................................................................................................ 22

6.2.1. The Status of Cropped Food................................................................................................ 23 6.2.2. The Status of Major Staple Crops in Pakistan ..................................................................... 23 a) Wheat ........................................................................................................................................... 24 b) Rice .............................................................................................................................................. 25 6.4.3. Animal-Based Food ........................................................................................................... 26 a) Livestock...................................................................................................................................... 26

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b) Fisheries ....................................................................................................................................... 27 6.5. The Relationship of Food Shortage and Climate Change ............................................................ 27

6.6. Socioeconomic Vulnerability to Food Shortage .......................................................................... 28

7. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................... 31 References .................................................................................................................................................... 33

List of Tables

Table 4.1: Pakistan’s Irrigation System Table 4.2: The Capacity of Water Reservoirs of Pakistan Table 4.3: Actual Surface Water Availability Table 6.1: Agriculture Growth Percentage from 2005-2012 Table 6.2: Area, Production, Yield of Wheat from 2007-2012 Table 6.3: Area, Production, Yield of Rice from 2007-2012 Table 6.4: Estimated Livestock Products Production List of Figures Figure 1.1: The map of global climate risk index 1992-2011 Figure 3.1: showing the reservoir capacity in region Figure 4.1: map of countries in water security risk index 2010 Figure 4.2: Indus Basin Irrigation System Figure 6.1: Map showing Pakistan at high risk of food security in FSRI, 2013 Figure 6.2: Inflation trend in metropolitan Karachi

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Abbreviations BCM Billion Cubic Meter ESP Economic Survey of Pakistan FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas FSRI Food Security Risk Index GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gases GoP Government Of Pakistan IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IRSA Indus River System Authority IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature IWT Indus Water Treaty KHH Karakoram-Hindukush-Himalaya KPK Khyber Pakhtunkhua LEAD Leadership for Environment and Development MAF Million Acre Feet Mha Million Hectors Mtons Million Tons NDMA National Disaster and Management Authority NWFP North West Frontier Province PARC Pakistan Agricultural Research Council PBS Pakistan Bureau of Statistics PC Planning Commission PMD Pakistan Meteorological Department SDPI Sustainable Development and Policy Institute UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNFPA United Nations Population Fund UNICEF United Nations Children Fund UNWFP United Nations World Food Program WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority WB World Bank WHO World Health Organization WSRI Water Security Risk Index WWF World Wide Fund

http://www.google.com.pk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&ved=0CEMQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fao.org%2Fstatistics%2F&ei=bHAUUpS8BMvo7AaS5IGgBw&usg=AFQjCNFSqzD5ZdlnO_scJsuT7uIL3b6dyA&sig2=Q4wRcbpQ-gzDODNc0rJqdw&bvm=bv.50952593,d.ZGU

http://www.google.com.pk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CCwQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ipcc.ch%2F&ei=im4UUt6VDOmt7QarxYHoBw&usg=AFQjCNFAawLD3GWiyGx0HC9l_uj-MVOiXQ&sig2=VdEE9Pkz30YYxEWTX7x-nw&bvm=bv.50952593,d.ZGU

http://www.google.com.pk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&ved=0CEgQFjAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fuser%2Fiucn&ei=C3EUUq-mE6fC7Aajx4GYBw&usg=AFQjCNHWa_a_IOtwmmkYkPU2Q7LHeamhVg&sig2=P-3J7suOG7DZTp_gIXUQ1w&bvm=bv.50952593,d.ZGU

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Climatic Change, Irrigation Water Crisis and Food Security in Pakistan MUHAMMAD ASIF

Asif, M., 2013: Climatic Change, Irrigation Water Crisis and Food Security in Pakistan. Master thesis in Sustainable Development at Uppsala University, No. 170, 39 pp, 30 ECTS/hp

Abstract This study describes the effects of climate change on food security in agricultural dependent country, Pakistan. Based on secondary sources of data, the study found out the evidences of climate change and its severe implications on already inadequate and depleted natural resources of the country. The major effects of climate change are in terms of rise in temperature, variations in precipitation pattern, increasing glacier-melt, and increasing evaporation and increased irrigation water requirements. In addition, the report focuses on Pakistan’s irrigation structure and existent capacity, irrigation water crisis, trans-boundary water conflicts (internal and external), food shortage and high inflation rate in food components. This shortage of food is mainly because of low-cropped productivity due to irrigation water crisis. Although the country has world’s largest integrated irrigation system, however, the water scarcity has made minds of farmers to shift cultivation from water intensive crops like rice, wheat, cotton and sugarcane to low water required crops and vegetables putting pressure on food market. Moreover, the crops yield is also less due to strong evaporation and the severity of temperature during long summer season. The constantly rising temperature for over last forty years coupled with variations in rainfall pattern often results into uneven surface water availability throughout cropping seasons. Further, extraordinary rise in temperature in mountainous region of Pakistan, causes extra melting of glaciers along with uneven annual precipitation which frequently results into flash floods with millions of people dislocated and loss of billions of worth in food, standing crops and infrastructure. Pakistan’s population is increasing with over two percent growth rate; therefore, the chief staple foods like wheat, rice, maize, sugarcane, and vegetables have become out of reach of poor people and have severe contingent social and economic implications in terms of further enhancing the vulnerability of poor marginalized segments of society. Keywords: Sustainable Development, Greenhouse gases, Temperature, Precipitation, Irrigation water, Agriculture, Food security

Muhammad Asif, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, SE- 752 36 Uppsala, Sweden

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Climatic Change, Irrigation Water Crisis and Food Security in Pakistan MUHAMMAD ASIF

Asif, M., 2013: Climatic Change, Irrigation Water Crisis and Food Security in Pakistan. Master thesis in Sustainable Development at Uppsala University, No. 170, 39 pp, pp, 30 ECTS/hp

Summary: This study is about climate change and its implications on water resources and food shortage in Pakistan. The study provides that Pakistan is country whose economy (21 %) is predominantly based on agriculture; however, country is facing problems of cropped food shortage, high inflation and irrigation water scarcity. The study finds that although in Pakistan, the emissions of greenhouse gases amounts to 309 Mtons of CO2 equivalent, which is just 0.8 % of the global world and ranks Pakistan on 135th position in per capita GHG emissions amongst nations, however, country is facing problem of climate change more than other countries due to trans-boundary emissions of greenhouse gases.

Resultantly, there is observed constant rise in temperature about 0.76°C in country generally and about 1.5°C rise in mountain regions of Pakistan that holds about 5000 glaciers in KHH ranges. The study indicates there is found gradual decreasing trend in per capita surface water availability, from 5260 m3 per year in 1951, to just 1000 to 1066 m3 in 2008 in Pakistan.

Due to rise in temperature especially in glaciered region and associated variations in precipitation pattern, the glaciers are melting and causing extreme events like floods because country although having world’s largest integrated irrigation system, does not have adequate water reservoirs to hold extra water. Therefore, due to fast receding tendencies of glaciers, most of the water goes wasted into sea along with causing damages to standing crops, stored food and billions of worth livestock, infrastructure and land resources.

In Pakistan, almost 61 percent (84 out of 137) of the districts (mostly in Khyber Pakhtunkhua, FATA and Balochistan) are reported as undersupplied for food both cropped as well as animal-based food. This shortage of food is mainly because of low-cropped productivity due to rise in temperature and scarcity of irrigation water. The study identifies that due to scarcity of irrigation water, the farmers are shifting cultivation from water intensive crops like rice, wheat, cotton and sugarcane (staple food) to low water required crops and vegetables putting pressure on food market. Moreover, the crops yield is also less due to strong evaporation and the severity of temperature during long summer season. The study found out the production of chief staple food like wheat, rice and sugarcane is reduced over first decade of 21st century in Pakistan.

Nevertheless, Pakistan’s population is increasing with almost 2 percent growth rate and therefore there is greater demand of food supply into market. However, due to inadequate supply of food in the market, the inflation rate is being too high in this decade. Resultantly, the chief staple foods like wheat, rice, maize, sugarcane and vegetables have become out of reach of poor people and have further enhanced the vulnerability of poor marginalized segment of society. Therefore, at this time, there is greater need to address the trans-boundary climate change issues; better management of water resources along with policies to shift into green economy, globally as well as countries specific.

Keywords: Sustainable Development, Greenhouse gases, Temperature, Precipitation, Irrigation water, Agriculture, Food security

Muhammad Asif, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, SE- 752 36 Uppsala, Sweden

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1. Introduction

The current study is about the irrigation water crises mainly occurring due to climatic changes and its impact on the food security of the agriculture dependent country Pakistan. According to World Food Summit (1996), the “Food security exists when all people at all times have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.” Food security stipulates that the availability of food, and its easy access, utilization and constancy are the four pillars and further the nutritional dimension is integral to the concept of food security (FAO, 2009a). Nevertheless, globally, food security is considered a big problem for the world community to feed almost estimated 9 billion population of the world by 2050. Therefore, the world community has consensus for the solution of this problem (FAO, 2009), mainly through investment in agriculture, improvement in food governance, and especially to proactively face the challenges of climate change on food security. According to estimates of IFAD (2012), there are approximately 925 million hungry people across the world and hence there is need to double food production by 2050. Further, the report identifies that 40 % of the world’s cultivable land is degraded due to various reasons inclusive of climate change. Due to the demand and supply gap of food products, the inflation rate is increasing and resultantly, poor people have to spend between 50 and 80 % of their income on food (IFAD, 2012).

Similarly, studies (McKinsey and Company, 2009) have identified that there is already global freshwater scarcity and in addition, there are forecasts about the prospect of increasing gap between the increasing demand of freshwater and its renewable supply by 2030. The estimated freshwater available for human consumption globally varies between 12,500 km3 and 14,000 km3 each year. However, by 2030 global fresh water requirements are estimated to increase by 40 % greater than current supply (4,500 billion m3 today to 6,900 billion m3)while the demand of fresh water will increase 50 % for one-third of the world’s population living in developing countries (McKinsey and Company, 2009: 5). Both WHO and UNICEF (2010) reported that globally, there are almost over 1.1 billion people, who do not have access to safe and clean drinking water. Climate change is affecting the complete fabric of humans in contemporary time. Climate change is associated with greenhouse emissions, rising average temperatures, varying rainfall patterns and ultimately rising sea levels (Moorhead, 2009). Further, the climate change has direct relationship with increase in temperature, increasing glacier-melt, increasing evaporation and indirectly by increasing crop-water requirements (Moorhead, 2009; Iqbal et al., 2009). With varying magnitude and intensity, there is no doubt about impact of climate changes on agriculture and food availability across the world. However, the most drastic impact is on developing countries particularly because their economic base is linked to agriculture and a large proportion of their populations depend directly on agriculture, agriculture related business and labour and also natural ecosystems for their livelihoods (Fisher et al., 2002; Stern, 2006; Cline 2007). Thus, climate change is a prospective ‘risk multiplier’ in some of the developing countries, where there is already a scarcity of food production and other natural resources to meet the demands. Studies have shown that there is greater certainty of rising of average global temperatures, which will continue to rise over the coming decades due to accumulations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Therefore, now, average temperatures are 0.7°C above the temperature at pre-industrial levels (Moorhead, 2009). It is further estimated that the average mean temperature has increased from 3 °C to 6 °C over the last hundred years and there is likely to be an increase of temperature from 1-3°C (Houghton et al., 1991) to 4.5°C or higher by 2080 (Moorhead, 2009). However, many climate specialists believe that the globe can bear the rise of 2°C that could be threshold, because above that rise in temperature the consequences are likely to be severe and hazardous to environmental systems (Moorhead, 2009). Anthropological studies provide that water has been substantial reality as far as survival and socio-economic progress of humanity is concerned. To sustain the ever-increasing population, humans’ mode of

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production shifted from the subsistence agriculture production to cash crops mainly aided by a complex irrigation system (Lamberg-Karlovsky and Sabloff, 1979; 121), especially in Mesopotamia and Indus Valley civilization. Currently, across the world, among the drastic and substantial challenges due to the climate changes, the availability of water is at the forefront and most essential. Accordingly, water being already scarce in many countries and regions of the world, there may be increasing demand and competition for water coupled with varying and less expected rainfall and river flows. In Asia, the changes in the patterns of monsoon rains, rapid snow melting in glaciers and subsequent floods are probably the greatest threats (Moorhead., 2009) for decrease in food production (Bruinsma., 2009). Along with river-irrigated areas, there is also likely to be an impact of rising temperature on substantial losses in crop yields in the rain-fed areas of wheat production in South and Southeast Asia (Fischer et al., 2002). Such decline in crop yields of wheat and rice especially in non-irrigated areas due to increase in temperature greater than 2.5°C in South Asia, will incur a loss in farm level net-revenue between 0 and 25% (Kumar and Parekh, 1998). Further, in case of food production in South Asian countries, due to climate changes, the net cereal production is projected to decline at least 4 to 10% by the end of this century (Alam et al., 2007). However, there might be significant regional differences in wheat, rice, and maize crop yields due to climate change (Rozenweig et al., 2001). Pakistan is one of those countries that are under a great threat from climate change.

1.1. The Statement of the Problem Pakistan is one of those countries whose economy (about 21%) is predominantly based on agriculture production; however, facing irrigation water shortage because the average rainfall in country is less than 240 mm a year (Ahmed et al., 2008; Wang et al., 2011). The 90 percent cultivation of land in country is mainly through irrigation using the available river-water and this cultivation contributes to over 80% of agricultural yield of the country (Iqbal et al., 2009). The high population growth 1.57% (Economy Watch, 2011 est.) and changing climate has tremendous pressure and implications on the means of agricultural production and irrigation water requirements, which are already inadequate for rapid increasing population of Pakistan. Pakistan is ranked at position 8th in most affected countries by effects of climate on climate risk index 1992-2011 (Harmelin and Eckstein, 2013: 11) as shown in Figure: 1.1.

Figure 1.1: The map of Global Climate Risk Index 1992-2011

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In Pakistan, certain crops are extremely climate sensitive such as rice, cereals, vegetables, spices, and other grains. Due to rising temperature and changing rainfall and resultant shortage of water, it is expected that problems with food security will arise due to low productivity especially in cropped food sector. The water crisis not only influences agriculture and animal breeding at individual level, but also at the systems in which it is managed. Furthermore, the food insecurity and resultant issues directly affect the livelihoods of rural people and indirectly on urban areas. In Pakistan, almost 61 percent (84 out of 137) of the districts are exceedingly undersupplied for food both cropped as well as animal-based food (SDPI, 2009). Food insecurity is crucial and greater hindrance to social and economic development of the country and needs critical scientific inquiry, and idea of viewing this issue in terms of climate change carries with it multipronged strategy to address the issue seriously.

1.2. Research Objectives The overall objective of this study was to investigate the current evidence for climatic change in Pakistan, and to study its relationship with the irrigation water crisis and its impact on the food security of Pakistan. However, the specific objectives were as follows;

• To document the nature and extent of climatic change in Pakistan • To understand the relationship of climate change and shortage of water • To identify how shortage of irrigation water is affecting the agriculture production of the country

and causing food insecurity • To determine what are the key areas where there is a need of policy makers to ensure the food

security in Pakistan.

1.3. Significance of the Study

This research contributes to two areas of social science inquiry. On the one hand, the research deals with the ecological science and environmental studies in a sense that its focus is to understand the impact of climatic change on the ecological aspects of water shortage on the surface and groundwater tables and its impact on food availability in Pakistan. On the other hand, this research will focus on the socio-economic impact of the irrigation water scarcity on the food production and availability in historical fashion. Agriculture production is not only important for the individuals’ socioeconomic progress but also contributes the economy of the state; therefore focusing on the real issues pertinent to agriculture production is significant in applied perspective.

The study is also significant because it emphasizes on rising temperature of the region and its impact on changing precipitation rate and melting of glaciers, the phenomenon which ensures the availability of water and subsequent food production in Pakistan. The study provides the analysis of gradual decrease of food availability, high inflation, and possible impacts on social and economic conditions of people of Pakistan. The study also takes into account the trans-boundary water conflicts between Pakistan and India keeping into mind the Indus Water Treaty (IWT). Beyond agriculture, this study is also significant in elaborating the severe effects of climatic changes, and shortage of quality and quantity of ground water that is necessary for food, health, and survival of the people.

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2. Research Methods

This study is primarily based on a literature study. Due to the nature of research, the emphasis and reliance was given to the secondary sources. All those sources, where the information required is already available in certain models using different variables and conducted in different time and space, such as government or semi-government publications, reports, previous researches, personal records and mass media commentaries are generally considered as secondary sources. Similarly, these official documents obtained from different state departments and authorities working on climate change, water, food security were helpful for data analysis. Further, the reports from different non-governmental organizations through internet resources were also obtained. The documents and reports were obtained from Ministry of Environment and Climate Change; Ministry of National Food Security & Research; Ministry of Finance; Food, Agriculture & Livestock Division; Pakistan Bureau of Statistics; PMD (Pakistan Meteorological Department); WAPDA (Water and Power Development Authority); IRSA (Indus River System Authority); Pakistan Flood Commission; Pakistan Engineering Congress; Pakistan Agriculture Research Council and Pakistan Planning Commission. In addition, the reports, documents, policy briefs obtained different NGOs working in Pakistan and UN organizations were also consulted.

This report is divided into seven sections, which explore different aspects of climate change, water scarcity, and food security in Pakistan. First section introduces the problem and second section provides methodology used in research and elaborates the structure of the report. The section three of the report establishes the relationship between water scarcities, climate change and food insecurity in global, regional (South Asia) and in Pakistan’s context. The section four provides detailed analysis of existing irrigation system in country and water management practices. Then there is section five describing the changing temperature and rainfall pattern in country resulting into climate change with subsequent affects on water resources. This analysis is based on reports, articles, and journal papers of Pakistan meteorological department. In the section six, the comprehensive analysis provides relationship of water scarcity with staple food production in country and resultant inflation and socioeconomic vulnerability of poor people of Pakistan. At the end, section seven concludes the report and provides suggestions briefly for the solution of the climate changes and food insecurity.

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3. Climate Change, Water Scarcity and Food Security

There is plenty of literature available in the domain of climatic change and its impact on humans. However, the relationship between the environment, water and food security is the contemporary important domain of research. In this section, the focus is to understand the relationship of climate change, water scarcity and associated problems inclusive of food insecurity. In addition, this section reviews literature about food insecurity generally at global, Asia and country level and tries to establish the relationship of climate change with food security and sustainability challenges.

3.1. Water Scarcity and Food Insecurity Rising temperature with subsequent changing precipitation, in one way or the other, causes scarcity in irrigation water and results into low food production. A water crisis can never be defined simply as a water shortage because nature is never ‘short’ of water. Even the driest desert constitutes an ecosystem. Water is short only when social actors have decided it so for a variety of reasons. This appears clearly, when the shortage is defined in an anthropocentric fashion. According to Trottier and Slack, (2004), “the social construction of scarcity may become less obvious when the shortage is defined in an eco-centric fashion”. The effects of rising temperature, melting glaciers and uneven rainfall on ecosystem could be drastic because there may occurs an increase in sea level at some places and draught conditions in other regions (Gulf of Marine Council on Marine Environment, 2010). Similarly, while describing the natural distribution of water, Lundqvist (2000) pointed out that thirst and hunger have another geographical distribution as compared to the overall availability of water.

In less developed countries, the majority of the population still lives in rural settings (Chen and Ravallion, 2007); and these mainly depend on natural resources for their livelihood. Their livelihoods in turn are also intricately connected with taking advantage of environmental conditions with the support of ecosystems (Barbier, 2010b). According to estimates of World Bank (2003), there are more than 600 million of the rural poor, who currently live on lands under stress of sever degradation and water scarcity and in dry lands susceptible to climatic and ecological disturbances. Similarly, in the major agriculture producing countries, there is tendency of rural populations to live on flimsy environmental conditions, and they are often likely to be a victim of sudden climatic changes. On the other side, there have been witnessed changes globally in the population growth fashion because in 2008 for the first time in human history, the growth of urban population surpassed the growth of rural population (UNFPA, 2007), thereby forcing global community to think in terms of food security for ever increasing population of the world. Similarly, during the decade of 2000-2010, in the less developed countries, the growth of urban of populations significantly improved than the growth of the rural populations (UNFPA, 2007). Therefore, for materializing the idea of sustainable development, in the literature, the emphasis has been given on transition to green economy, which can effectively assist in overcoming problems arising out of increasing population and food security. The studies have shown that, although with more carbon consuming industrialization, the world’s less developed countries are affected much by environmental degradation and pollution than most other developing countries (UNCTAD, 2010a). The reason being least developed countries do not have adequate knowledge about clean renewable energies and mechanism to control desertification and urban management (UNCTAD, 2010a). World Bank (2010) reported that, although the agriculture yield is increased worldwide, however, researches have shown that 1 billion people remain malnourished. Due to this during 2000 and 2007, estimated 27.8 % of children under age five in least developing countries were malnourished. In case of Pakistan, which is agriculture dependent country, Kaisar Bangali (2003) described the water scarcity in Pakistan as caused by a distortion in social and economic policies of the state. He argued that Pakistan receives far less the average rainfall in the world, therefore, the Indus River System is the lifeline for Pakistan; however, the political, economic, and technological management of water resources has been

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abjectly woeful because of the lack of consensus on the construction of mega projects like Kala Bagh Dam. Three provinces out of total four have rejected this megaproject for various reasons; the most dominant reason in province Sindh was the shortage of water downstream in Sindh resulting into loss of ecosystem and less irrigation water during winter season. Figure 3.1: showing the reservoir capacity in region

Source: theguardian: The Observer, Internet, 2013

In case of water crisis and its impact on food insecurity in Pakistan, World Bank in 2006 issued the report titled as “Better Management of Indus Basin Waters: Strategic Issues and Challenges” that indicated that Pakistan is moving from a water stressed country to a water scarce country due to high population growth. Ground water is being over-exploited in many areas, and its quality is also deteriorating. World Bank (2006) further reported that the developed countries like USA and Australia has water storage capacity over 5000 cubic meters, China has 2,200 cubic meters, while Pakistan has only 150 cubic meters per capita inhabitant. On the other hand, the dams of the Colorado can hold 900 days of river surplus, the dams in South Africa can store 500 days water, and India has capacity to store water between 120 and 220 days in its main rivers. On the contrary, the agriculture depended country Pakistan can store water for only 30 days in the Indus basin. Similarly, according to report published in theguardian (August 10, 2013), Pakistan is planning less reservoirs compared to regional countries (Figure, 3.1)

3.2. Climate Change and Food Security in South Asia Although climate change is occurring across the global world, South Asia is thought as one of the most susceptible regions towards extreme effects of climatic changes (Sivakumar and Stefanski, 2011). Similarly, Lal et al., (2011) also argued that due to climate changes, the variations in temperature and subsequent dissimilarity in precipitation rate, and over melting of the Himalayan’s glaciers and decreasing trend in food production are the main issues affecting South Asia. In South Asia, the problems of food security are exacerbating due to high growth of population. South Asia comprises only 3.3% of the world’s land area; however, this region has to feed approximately one-fifth population of the world (Rasul, 2010). World population is estimated to increase from the current 6.7 billion to 9 billion by 2050 with major portion of increase occurring in South Asia. Therefore, according to estimates of FAO, feeding for such population, there is need of 70 % increase in total agricultural production (Bruinsma, 2009). Climate

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change is not only risky for agriculture production but also for production’s stability. In many parts of the world, studies have shown that agricultural productivity is already low and there are limited means of coping with adversarial events, climate change further enhances the reduction in productivity (Fisher et al., 2002; Stern Review 2006; Cline 2007). The changes in the temperature and rainfall pattern due to climate change, results into shift of agriculture production seasons, the breakout of pest and disease. These in turn gives rise to food shortage, increases inflation rate, low nutrition and mortality, and issues of employment and livelihoods.

3.3. Climate Change and Food Security in Pakistan In case of general food security in South Asia, the high mountain systems comprising of thousands of glaciers and high precipitation in northwestern part of Pakistan are the foremost source of irrigation water for cropped food production especially rice, wheat, maize and vegetables in Pakistan, which are the chief component of food in South Asia (Rasul, 2010). Further, Rasul (2010) maintained that although Pakistan’s food production had attained self-sufficiency in food during the 1980s, however, due to irrigation water shortage because of several issues inclusive of climate change, the food production has failed to stay abreast of high population growth. In the case of food security in Pakistan, especially in rural areas of the country the agricultural production is recognized as the base of food availability and sustainability (Ahmad and Farooq, 2010). In addition to that, across the whole country, the livelihoods as well as primary food dependency of the people is mainly on agriculture and agriculture related labour and industry. However, in most parts across country and especially in agriculture zones, the agriculture is mainly (more than 80 %) possible through irrigation. Therefore, for that purpose, there is highly developed irrigation system and water for irrigation is derived from several glaciated areas of the world’s highest mountain ranges and is distributed through the huge river systems of Indus, Chenab, Jhelum and others. Similarly, a study conducted by Ahmad and Farooq (2010) identified that, in the areas where agriculture is fed rainwater in the high mountain areas of the Himalaya, monsoon is the main system of rainfall, which substantiates irrigation enough for cropping. However, a study conducted by Sultana et al., (2009) revealed likely beneficial impacts of climate change on agriculture in the mountainous monsoon belt of Pakistan. My study also focuses on understanding the existent irrigation system of Pakistan and current situation of water reservoirs and the issues related with future prospect of irrigation system of Pakistan.

3.4. The Food Security Challenge A recent study conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI, 2009), titled ‘Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation’, provide some expected outcome of climate change:

• If there are not taken serious measures to mitigate climatic changes, approximately 25 million more children will be malnourished by 2050

• In developing countries, irrigated wheat yields would be reduced by 30 % and irrigated rice yields by 15% by 2050

• Most significantly, the climate change will cause the inflation rate to rise by increasing the prices of wheat up to 90 %, rice up to 12 % and maize up to 35% by 2050

Different studies have shown that several pests and crops diseases, numerous animals, and countless humans are sensitive to climate. On the other hand, such reaction as well as the climatic change occurs almost in unpredictable ways (Moorhead, 2009).

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4. Nature of Irrigation System in Pakistan

This section is comprised of an introduction to irrigation systems, the origin of irrigation system in south Asia and its historical development peculiar to Indo-Pak subcontinent. In addition, it also includes essentially the existing irrigation system of Pakistan and irrigation water shortage and its fundamental relationship with climate change, mismanagement of water resources and internal as well as external trans-boundary conflicts over water resources. According to water security index 2010 given by Maplecroft for global risk analysis, Pakistan is ranked at 7th position in list of countries having extreme risk of water shortage (see Figure 4.1 for WSRI, 2010).

Figure 4.1: map of countries in Water Security Risk Index 2010

4.1. Historical Development of Irrigation System During centuries of humanity's ancient past, the Neolithic, Copper and Bronze Ages, the great rivers have played a very important role in the development of the inhibited parts of the world. Pakistan is located in the region where the great Indus Valley Civilization flourished. Archaeological evidences suggest that the great civilizations had the best chance of making progress and flourished near the banks of the rivers Indus, Nile, Tigris, Danube, and Ganges rivers (Lamberg-Karlovsky and Sabloff, 1979). Through the complex irrigation system, humans’ mode of production shifted from the subsistence agriculture production to cash crops with the rise of population. The Indus Valley Civilization (4000 - 3000 B.C) flourished along the banks of the river Indus (Briscoe and Qamar, 2005) and developed irrigation system. In Pakistan, the Indus and its tributaries (Chenab, Jhelum, Ravi, Bias, and Sutlej) played a very important role in the development of largest irrigation system in the world (Sohag and Mahessar, 2004). In Pakistan, the earliest canals existed during the reign of Feroz Shah Tughlaq in fourteenth century and the irrigation system developed during Mughal period between sixteenth to eighteenth centuries. However, at the start of 19th century, during colonial period the British started constructing irrigation canals in Indo-Pak

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sub-continent. Although Indus-derived irrigation has been practiced for centuries (Lamberg-Karlovsky and Sabloff, 1979), the basic physical framework of Pakistan's irrigation system was planned and constructed during the colonial period in the late 19th and early 20th century. Further to post-partition in 1947, there have also been major physical additions to the irrigation system.

4.2. Irrigation System of Pakistan The canal irrigation system in Pakistan was developed more than one hundred years ago. Currently, this irrigation system is recognized as world’s largest integrated irrigation system (Sohag and Mahessar, 2004), called as Indus River System (see figure 4.2 for detail), which receives more than 65 % of the fresh water from the world’s largest glaciers reserves in the Karakorum-Hindukush-Himalaya (KHH) ranges. In Pakistan, according to estimates of 2006-07, out of the total 23.39 million hectares of cropped area, the irrigated land accounts approximately 84 % of cropped area (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 2006-07). However, the low growth irrigation area coupled with non-inclusion of 8.33 Mha of wasteland into irrigation area may result into catastrophic situation mainly due to climate change (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 2006-07).

As irrigation deemed important to an agrarian economy in the basin, therefore, irrigation was extended under the British rule in the provinces of Punjab and Sindh (Michel, 1967; Mustafa 2001). Partition in 1947 divided the province of Punjab between India (East Punjab) and Pakistan (West Punjab) and the province's irrigation infra-structure, with headworks (structures controlling water flow) remained in upstream India, and the dependent canals fall in downstream Pakistan. Initially, temporary agreements were signed by East and West Punjab to ensure continued water supply to Pakistan's canals after partition. However, the agreements expired on 31 March 1948, and on 1 April 1948, East Punjab stopped the water flowing across the international border. For Pakistan, the timing could have been worse. Farmers in the Punjab plant two crops per year. The water shortage threatened both the winter crop that was about to be harvested, and the summer crop which would be sown immediately afterwards. Without water, both seasons' crops would be lost. The Inter-Dominion (Delhi) Agreement was signed on 4 May 1948, documenting the countries' agreement that each had needs to be met from the Sutlej River, and to continue bilateral talks (Shivananda, 1961).

According to Indus River System Authority (IRSA, 2013, Internet), the Indus Basin System contains 45 main canals emerging out of 20 river diversion structures. Many of the canals are large by world standards, 15 of them having capacities of over 280 cubic meters per second. The total operative capacity of these canals is 6,990 cubic meters per second and their annual conveyance capacity is 220 billion cubic meters. These canals transverse about 63,000 km to command nearly 14 million hectares of cultivable area through 87,500 watercourses, and each canal serves an average of 180 hectares of land.

In addition to that, there are 12 link canals transferring bulk of water supplies from western rivers to eastern rivers in case of water shortage. Similarly, there are two large dams named Tarbela in province Khyber Pakhtunkhua and Mangla in province Punjab with a combined storage capacity of 14.05 million acre feet equivalents to approx. 17.34 BCM (IRSA, 2013, Internet; WB, 2006). These dams have been built on the western rivers to regulate seasonal river flow and to use it for irrigation during the winter when the river inflow is only 19 % of summer flow but irrigation demand is quite high.

By design and capacity, the perennial canals are supposed to have continuous flow throughout the year except for a minimum of a one-month shutdown in January for maintenance. River flows are only sufficient to operate the perennial canals an average of 330 days/year, with a range from 241 to 336 days/year of operation. Non-perennial canals have a similar setup except that they are supposed to operate for an average of only 180 days and their range should be from 124 to 228 days of operation per year. Figure 4.1 below describes the integrated irrigation system of Pakistan.

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Table 4.1: Pakistan’s Irrigation System

Items Description in Numbers Major Reservoirs 3 Barrages / Headworks 18 Link Canals 12 Canal Systems 45. Length of Watercourses 107,000 km Length of Canals 56,073 km Average Canal Water Diversion 17.34 BCM Groundwater Abstractions 51.31 BCM Tube wells 1,000,000. Irrigated Area 44.5 Million acres Source: Water and Power Development Authority (2012)

Pakistan’s irrigation system contains two large reservoirs of water on the Indus River System, mainly the Tarbela Dam on river Indus in province of Khyber Pakhtunkhua and Mangla Dam on river Jhelum in province of Punjab. Both dams have combined live storage capacity of 17.34 BCM as shown in table 4.1. In addition, the third largest reservoir, named Chashma on Indus river in Punjab, is used only for regulation purpose and has the storage capacity of nearly 0.4 BCM (see table 4.1 for detail). These reservoirs provide water for irrigation of crops in the country. With the help of these reservoirs, approximately 77 % of water stored in kharif is used for rabi crops (kharif and rabi are crop seasons in Pakistan), while the other 23 % is normally used to add-on flows during early kharif and late kharif season. Current capacity and loss in capacity of major reservoirs is given in table 4.2. According to WAPDA (2012), due to increase in siltation and deforestation, the storage capacity of all three reservoirs has reduced by about 20%, to 14.69 BCM by the year 2011. Deforestation is considered as the major reasons behind dam siltation, which is the highest in the world (WWF- Pakistan, 2009). Therefore, the deforestation, siltation of reservoirs and rise in temperature, are combined to intensify the effects of climate change. It is further estimated that if the siltation at this rate persists, the combined storage capacity of three reservoirs is likely to reduce to 12.33 BCM (10.0 MAF) by the year 2025. Therefore, the alternate view of water and energy shortage have been viewed in building new reservoirs and Kala Bagh Dam which was first serious effort to manage water crisis, however it subjected to interprovincial political dispute over constructing mega dams on river Indus. The three provinces namely Khyber Pakhtunkhua, Sindh, and Balochistan were never in favor of this dam (Bengali, 2003). This is mainly because three provinces view construction of dam in Punjab, a way of manipulating already scarce water resources. Table 4.2: The Capacity of Water Reservoirs of Pakistan

Reservoir

Original (MAF) 2012 (MAF) Loss (MAF)

Gross Live Dead Gross Live Dead Gross Live Dead Tarbela (Running Length 1378‐1550)

11.62 7.72 3.90 7.73 6.63 1.10 3.89 1.09 2.80

Mangla (R.L 1040‐1210)

6.41 5.87 0.54 5.12 5.02 0.10 1.29 0.85 0.44

Chashma (R.L 637‐649)

0.87 0.72 0.15 0.32 0.26 0.06 0.55 0.45 0.09

Total 18.90 14.31 4.59 13.18 11.91 1.27 5.72 2.40 3.32

Source: Water and Power Development Authority (2012)

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The table 4.2 shows the gradual decreasing capacity of major reservoirs in Pakistan. In the table, full reservoir level or gross storage includes both active and inactive storages capacity of reservoir and that include the flood storage, while the live storage in operational way means quantity of water actually available at any time between the dead storage level and full reservoir level. The dead level is actually the lowest discharge outlet from the reservoir, which is maintained to hold sedimentation. Therefore, it is further estimated that if the siltation at this rate persists, the combined storage capacity of three reservoirs is likely to reduce to 12.33 BCM (10.0 MAF) by the year 2025. Therefore, the alternate view of water and energy shortage have been viewed in building new reservoirs and Kala Bagh Dam which was first serious effort to manage water crisis, however it subjected to interprovincial political dispute over constructing mega dams on river Indus. The three provinces namely Khyber Pakhtunkhua, Sindh, and Balochistan were never in favor of this dam (Bengali, 2003). This is mainly because three provinces view construction of dam in Punjab, a way of manipulating already scarce water resources.

Figure 4.2: Indus Basin Irrigation System taken from IRSA (2013, Internet)

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4.3. Sources of Water Pakistan is blessed with rich surface and subsurface water resources. From agricultural purposes to power generation; from domestic use to industrial purposes, the water resources have been used extensively without enough management on sustainable grounds. The major source of surface water in Pakistan is the river Indus and its tributaries such as rivers Chenab, Jhelum, Ravi, Sutlej and Beas (Pakistan Economist, 2001, Internet), that receives water from melting of glaciers in north and monsoon rainfall.

4.3.1. Surface Water Resources in Pakistan According to report of Punjab Irrigation and Power Department, (2009), surface water resources cover three quarters of the earth’s surface comprising around 1400 Million km of water on earth. The fresh water is only about 30 million km3 (2.20% approximately) and the primary source of fresh surface water resources is the precipitation occurring on our planet. Glaciers, rivers, lakes, and springs are the secondary sources and all of these are fed by rain. Consequently, surface water resources have been termed as elixir of life (Punjab Irrigation and Power Department, 2009). Nonetheless, in Pakistan, the precipitation is markedly varied in magnitude, time of occurrence with respect to different areas of country. However, most of the rainfall (almost two-thirds) is concentrated in the three summer months of July-September mainly because of two major sources of rainfall, the Monsoons and the Western Disturbances (Adnan and Khan, 2009; Rashid, 2004). From the Bay of Bengal, the monsoons originate and after passing over India, reach Pakistan, during mid July and continue until September. The catchments of Indus Plains fall in region that receives most of their rainfall from the monsoons. Thunderstorms are common phenomena during two periods mainly (i) April-June and (ii) October-November in Pakistan. These two periods are recognized as the driest periods of the year, particularly October and November (Naheed and Rasul, 2010; Adnan and Khan, 2009; Rashid, 2004). During these periods, thunderstorms caused by convection bring sporadic and localized rainfall (Khan, 1991), and causing much damages to standing ripened crops. Table 4.3: Actual Surface Water Availability

Million Acre Feet Period Kharif Rabi Total % incr/decr Average System Usage 67.1 36.4 103.5 -

2003-04 65.9 31.5 97.4 -5.9 2004-05 59.1 23.1 82.2 -20.6 2005-06 70.8 30.1 100.9 -2.5 2006-07 63.1 31.2 98.7 -8.9 2007-08 70.8 27.9 98.7 -4.6 2008-09 66.9 24.9 91.8 -11.3 2009-10 67.3 25 92.3 -10.8 2010-11 53.4 34.6 88 -15 2011-12 60.4 29.4 89.8 -13.4 Source: Indus River System Authority, 2012 However, in the last few years, the intensity of rainfall, especially in southern part (agriculture zone) of country, decreases because of low rainfall (Naheed and Rasul, 2010), whereas every year the temperature is getting harsh during summer in the months of June and July, with the increasing temperature and muddy storms and is especially damaging to paddy crops. Multan and adjacent areas are situated in the agriculture

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zone of Pakistan. However, climate conditions are very severe during the summers, when a temperature crosses 50 °C; however, the average annual rainfall is roughly 127 millimeters (Aleem-ul-Hassan et al., 2008). Adjacent to Multan, is situated the desert cholistan which continues until the desert thar in Sindh province, that generates heat waves during summer whereas the dust storms are common occurrence afternoon in this region especially in the pre monsoon and post monsoon seasons, which have greater impact on the horizontal visibility. The flows of the Indus and its tributaries vary widely from year to year and within the year. As far as the case o the water availability, mostly the water after extra melting of glaciers varies annually and wastes into the sea. The detail about percent increase or decrease in surface water availability during crop seasons (i.e. Kharif and Rabi) in Pakistan is provided in table 4.3.

4.3.2. Groundwater In Pakistan, groundwater provides the second largest contribution to the total water availability (Pakistan Economist, 2001, Internet). A report jointly presented by Project Management & Policy Implementation Unit (PMPIU) with the help of Asian development Bank in 2009 provided that in Pakistan, groundwater use has been a major factor in raising agricultural production for over the past 20 years. In agriculture areas, the surface irrigation water is not available throughout crop production, therefore, groundwater tube wells not only supply additional water but also these have been used to combat salinity and water logging (Lefebvre, 1999), along with providing alternative to surface water supplies with crop water requirements. However, due to excessive, uncontrolled and rapid private sector development of groundwater, there is a danger of excessive lowering of water tables and intrusion of saline water into fresh-water aquifers. In Pakistan water logging is another problem affecting the food security; it is estimated that of the total 2 Mha of land affected by water logging, Punjab and Sindh (which are main food producing provinces) shares 0.8 Mha and 1.1 Mha respectively (GOP-ESP 2007). On the other side, there are 6.67 Mha salt-affected areas in Pakistan (Khan, 1998; Khan, 2011), and Punjab shares 80% of salt affected land. Salinity and water logging have been one of the causes negatively associated with wheat production (Makhdum and Ashfaq, 2008). Government started different programs for salinity control and water logging problems. Among these programs, large numbers of deep tube-wells (thousands in numbers) mostly in Punjab were installed to control the groundwater table. This program initially proved to be quite effective in lowering the water table (Lefebvre, 1999) because tube-wells used most of the ground water by lowering water table. Particularly in the eighties, the development of private tube wells started with a boost, when locally manufactured inexpensive diesel engines became available. Most of these tube wells were individually owned. According to latest reports issued by the Government of Punjab, the total numbers of private tube wells are 944,649 working in Punjab (Government of Punjab-Bureau of Statistics, 2012:48). Generally, farmers install tube wells in fresh ground water zones and use ground water for irrigation purposes. Therefore, they have to face the shortage of surface water mainly because of over-exploitation of this resource. The sustainability of irrigated agriculture is facing a new threat of water shortage in ground water. Further, there is likely potential impact of rising temperature on already water logging and saline condition of land (Khan, 2011).

4.4. Trans-boundary Water Conflict Water systems transcend international boundaries in several ways. The water, on which we depend for so many different aspects of life, is globally circulated in a single, integrated system, the world's water cycle. This means that humanity as a whole depends on the same life-supporting system that is endlessly transcending international boundaries.

As described in detail in section 4.2, Pakistan’s irrigation system is based on Indus river system. However, due to her neighboring country India’s decision to construct dams on river Jhelum and Chenab, this has exacerbated the ongoing irrigation water crisis in Pakistan. In 1948 after the partition between India and Pakistan, the Indus Basin divided in a particularly complex fashion. Disputes over irrigation water intensified tensions, bringing the two countries towards war. Indus water treaty was signed in 1960 between

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India and Pakistan under the command of World Bank, and was concerned with the distribution of water of rivers between Pakistan and India (Biswas, 1992, 208).

4.4.1. The Indus Waters Treaty The dispute between India and Pakistan over sharing of Indus Valley River flows could not be settled through bilateral negotiations, and the dispute had to be solved through international mediation (Kokab and Nawaz, 2013:210; Biswas, 1992, 208). Under the Indus Waters Treaty, India was given the exclusive use of three eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas and Sutlej), while the western Rivers (Chenab, Jhelum and Indus) were left for Pakistan except for some specified uses of waters of these rivers by India (Kokab and Nawaz, 2013:210). Under treaty, a network of two storage dams, six barrages, and eight inter-river link canals was constructed in Pakistan (see detail in figure 4.1) to transfer water from Western Rivers to the Eastern Rivers and to the canal systems which were then receiving their supplies from the three Eastern Rivers (Kokab and Nawaz, 2013:212). According to Falkenmark (1990), “Water enters a country via this cycling system in two principal ways: as vertical input from the atmosphere over the territory and as horizontal input from upstream countries in entering rivers and aquifers. Life depends on man being able to withdraw water from this circulating system. Major withdrawals reduce the flow in the system, with consequences for downstream countries. These withdrawals may provoke regional conflicts that can be resolved by treaties, river compacts, or other types of international agreements”. Similarly, very recently, the conflict between Pakistan and India started due to construction of Baghlihar dam on the river Chenab and Wullar Barrage on river Jhelum by India; these rivers flow through Pakistan down and Pakistan reserves the right of using water of river Chenab according to Indus water treaty. The construction of these dams is thought in Pakistani circles to enhance the already crippling situation of water crisis and food security in Pakistan (Kokab and Nawaz, 2013:211). Understandably, therefore, there is a growing literature suggesting that conflicts around water resources will increase dramatically in the years to come and may even lead to war (Renner, 1996). Certainly, resource scarcity has been motivating wars among nations; however, historical or contemporary evidence does not support the notion that major wars have been fought over water resources (Homer- Dixon 1999). On the contrary, there is evidence that water may also become the unifying resource around which countries cooperate. In addition, the downstream water environment and poor citizens depending on it for livelihoods and survival are the first to feel the effects, as noted below. This environmental damage has the potential to alert the world community to the degradation occurring and to mobilize opinion within the relevant nations to reverse the situation through collaborative actions, so that worse conflicts may be avoided.

4.4.2. Apportionment of Indus Waters Accord Within Pakistan, internally the distribution of water among different provinces is done through Indus Water Accord (IRSA, 1991; Bengali, 2003). From the beginning of Pakistan, the provinces showed mutual support and good well to resolve different mutual issues inclusive of inter-provincial water disputes. Therefore, after the partition, the construction of Kotri, Taunsa and Gudu Barrages on river Indus was the result of such friendliness and cooperation. Similarly, the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord was a major breakthrough and a turning point in its march towards national consolidation (Bengali, 2003). Anderson Committee (1935), Indus (Rau) Commission (1939), Akhtar Hussian Committee (1968), Fazal-e-Akbar Committee (1970), Anwar-ul-Haq Commission (1981), and Haleem Committee (1983) had earlier attempted to resolve water distribution issues about water distribution formula between the provinces. All these attempts failed except Rau Commission (1939), which resulted in Sindh-Punjab (Draft) Agreement, 1945, which became the basis of water distribution between Sindh and Punjab until the 1991 accord. However due to the emergency pertaining in country in wake of partition of India in 1947, the relevant provincial assemblies could not ratify the draft into an agreement. Nonetheless, the Water Apportionment Accord of 1991 among all provinces of country, therefore, is recognized as revered agreement in the

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history of Pakistan, which was reached through a political process and inter-provincial consensus (Sharif, 2010; Bengali, 2003; WB, 1999). The Water Apportionment Accord was signed on March 16, 1991 at Karachi. In the Indus Waters Accord of 1991, all provinces agreed on the need of construction of new storages wherever feasible for planned future agricultural development. The Indus Water Accord of 1991 calculated portions of water not based on actual average usages then which stood at 129.55 BCM but at 144.31 BCM, perhaps taking into account the surplus, which will be created through new storages. The apportionment agreed under the 1991 Accord (IRSA, 1991; Bengali, 2003), thus, provides a total allocation of 69.01 BCM to Punjab, 60.14 BCM to Sindh, 7.13 BCM to NWFP ( now the province is named, Khyber Pakhtunkhua, KPK) and 4.77 BCM to Balochistan. Additionally, NWFP is entitled to 3.70 BCM being used through civil canals above the rim stations. The Water Accord also ensures the distribution of the balance river supplies inclusive of flood supplies according to formula agreed; according to which, the share in water is about 37 per cent each to Punjab and Sindh, 14 per cent to NWFP and 12 per cent to Balochistan.

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5. Climate Change and Water Resources

This section addresses the evidence about changing climate and its relationship with declining water resources, declining water availability, and the irrigation water crisis in Pakistan. Further, this section deals with greenhouse gas emissions and rising temperature, variations in precipitation, depletion in groundwater table, and resultant conditions of drought, floods, deforestation, salinity, that gives rise to low agriculture productivity.

5.1. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Rising Temperature

The IPCC (2007) has revealed that globally the warming tendency is 0.74oC per century between the periods 1906-2005. This warming due to increasing temperature is because of the human influence and actions giving rise to climate change (IPCC, 2007). The rising of earth temperature is considered as caused by greenhouse gases. The most important of these greenhouse gases is carbon dioxide (CO2), which generates approximately 60% of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect from a preindustrial level of 280 ppm to 384 ppm in 2007, thereby resulting high concentration of CO2 into atmosphere (Latif, 2009).

There are diverse reasons behind temperature rise on the global scale. Accordingly, some of the significant factors among human activities, include deforestation, industrialization and the over combustion of fossil fuels that results in increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (Trenberth et al., 2007; IPCC, 2007). Folland et al., (2001) stated that, concerning global warming, there is a trend of rising temperatures in areas of high latitudes during winter months; however, there is trend of high temperature in mid-latitudes during summers. Simultaneously, studies have shown that climate change with rising temperature might be considered rather advantageous in some mountain areas on local level to extend growing season (Hofer and Ceci, 2009).

In Pakistan, according to estimates, the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) during 2008 were amounting to 309 million tons of CO2 equivalent (PAEC-ASAD, 2009; GOP-PC, 2010). The energy sector is the 50% contributor in GHG followed by agriculture sector, which adds 39% to GHG emissions, whereas industrial sector adds 6% and other activities about 5% to overall GHG emissions (GOP-PC 2010; Sayed, 2011) in Pakistan. In past two decades, Pakistan‘s GHG emissions have nearly doubled; however, these emissions are only about 0.8% of the global scale, and ranks Pakistan on 135th position in per capita GHG emissions amongst nations (GOP-PC, 2010).

It is estimated that the crop production and livestock agriculture globally contributes approximately 15 percent of total greenhouse emissions today (Smith et al., 2007). These GHG emissions from agriculture field contains the emission of methane (CH4) from flooded rice fields and livestock, the discharge of nitrous oxide (N2O) from the use of nitrogen fertilizers (organic and inorganic ), and release of carbon dioxide (CO2) due to agricultural practices and intensification of enhanced grazing. Furthermore, the emissions of the agriculture also accounts for in other sectors such as transport, energy and industry from production of fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, and from utilization of energy for growing, irrigation, fertilization, harvesting, and for transport to market (Smith et al., 2007).

In Pakistan, the carbon emissions from local road transport already stand at around 13,025,000 tons and with annual growth rate of 7.5% in transport sector, there is likely chances of much increase in GHG emissions (LEAD, 2008). The global warming due to GHG by industrial countries and its trans-boundary impact, frozen water resources across the world are melting at on record rate giving rise to unprecedented number and extent of glacial lakes. Further, startling increase in temperature trends globally and especially in northern areas of Pakistan during the last decade has increased the snowmelt rate giving rise to lake formation process (Rasul et al., 2011).

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5.2. Rising Temperature and Changing Rainfall Pattern

The World Meteorological Organization (2011) has noted that due to rise in temperature the first decade of 21st century was ranked the warmest decade over globe and simultaneously, the year 2010 was graded as the warmest year (+0.53°C over average global temperature) followed by 2005 (+0.52°C) and 1998 (+0.52°C). In case of Pakistan, there has been recorded a 0.76°C rise in temperature for the last 40 years; however, the country witnessed 1.5°C rise in temperature over the mountain region hosting thousands of glaciers during the same period (Chaudhry et al., 2009). In contrast to the increasing temperatures, there was observed (Ahmad et al., 2009) from the data of PMD (Pakistan Metrological Department) stations network that there is somewhat cooling trend over Khyber Pakhtunkhua at a rate of -0.15 oC per decade for January, however, there found statistically significant rise of January temperatures in rest of the country.

Due to rise in temperature, there is observed change in precipitation trends not only in mountainous region but also in plain areas of Pakistan. Currently, snowfall rarely occurs at the elevations of 4000m above sea level, and the precipitation in the form of rainfall is common feature of these mountain areas (Chaudhry et al., 2009). Further, there is observed variations in precipitation pattern and now there is general tendency of occurrence of snowfall at the end of winter season. During November to January, which has been the core period of winter season in Pakistan, there is less frequency of snowfall recorded during previous decade, nevertheless, some consecutive spells of snow during February adds the amount of total snowfall of season (Rasul et al., 2011; Chaudhry et al., 2009). This snow which is accumulated at the end of the winter season, starts melting immediately with start of warming during March-April (Rasul et al., 2011) due to fresh falling and susceptible to melt easily with slight rise in temperature during these months. Further, the steady occurrence of heat waves due to rising temperature in glaciered mountains has been causing fast melting of snow thereby increasing the discharge of water into terminal lakes of glaciers to rivers and increasing the risk of flooding (Chaudhry et al., 2009).

Schroder et al., (2007) identified that due to climate change, the resultant loss of significant glaciers in Pakistan may gradually become critical, lest the high warming creates greater oceanic evaporation that could supplement precipitation (Rasul, 2009). Further, the analysis of gradual rising of temperature found out the shift of snowline about one kilometer higher than its location 25 years before (Rasul et al., 2011). Similarly, the shrinking of mountain glaciers and resultant reduction in duration of snow cover clearly manifests the implications of global warming in mountain areas (Barry, 2002). Further, the occurrence as well as intensity of heat waves has significantly increased annual mean temperatures along with an extraordinary increasing trend over the southern slopes of Karakoram-Hindukush-Himalaya (Rasul et al., 2008).

In Pakistan, there is an observed rise in mean temperature of 0.6-1 °C and resultant decline in precipitation up to 30 to 40 % with rising intensity in monsoon (Rasul et al., 2008). In addition, there is observed 0.5 -0.7 % increase in solar radiation over southern half of the country (Amir, 2008). With these effects, the glacier cover of country is melting rapidly. The estimated time for glaciers melt is 45 years which would result into 40 to 50 % less water for irrigation thereby causing food insecurity in 62 % (74) districts of the country (Amir, 2008). Simultaneously, in Pakistan the climate is mostly arid to semi-arid, however there is found significant variations with respect to various regions as well as in terms of time and space. Further, monsoon rains are a main hydro-meteorological resource for Pakistan, which contributes about 59% of the annual rainfall of country (Farooqi et al., 2005). Nevertheless, in Pakistan, since the start of 20th century, there is observed steady rising tendency towards annual mean surface temperature. Accordingly, as described earlier, about 0.6-1.0°C rise is noticed in arid coastal areas, arid mountains and hyper arid plains, both summer and winter precipitation witnessed 10-15% decrease in coastal belt and hyper arid plains, along with approximately 18-32% increase in monsoon rainfall pattern especially in sub-humid and humid areas (Rasul, 2010). There is also observed 0.5 to 0.7% increases in solar radiations over southern half of country along with 5% decrease in relative moistness in Balochistan (Farooqi et al., 2005).

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Climate has a direct relationship with water resource across the world. In Pakistan, like everywhere in the world, the climate plays significant role for ensuring water for the country on sustainable basis. In Pakistan as described earlier that monsoon is the chief rainfall pattern in the country. Accordingly, in most parts of Pakistan, the monsoon rainfalls contribute approximately 65-70% to the total annual precipitation. However, in the regions of food production mainly in Punjab and Sindh the monsoon contribution is more than 80% (Wang et al., 2011).

However, meteorological observation shows that as regards the strength of summer monsoon, the amount of summer rains varies annually depending upon the changing global as well as local climate condition. Meteorological observation provides that monsoon rainfall pattern be categorized into El Niño and La Niña effects. During El Niño /Southern Oscillation (ENSO), there are observed warmer sea surface temperatures on the Tropical Pacific and resultantly, high precipitation shifts are expected eastwards. Therefore, in South Asia, there is reduced rainfall in summer. On the other hand, the effect of La Niña leads to a strengthening of the Indian monsoon, and subsequently heavy monsoon rains get to Pakistan (Khan, 2004). Resultantly, there is experienced increased precipitation in the region, which along with provision of surplus water to reservoirs, often results in floods in rural as well as urban areas of the country. For instance, the La Niña effect was responsible for heavy rains thereby causing extreme floods in Pakistan in summer 2010 and 2011 (Rashid, 2004; Syed, 2011; Dobler and Ahrens, 2011).

Pakistan’s agro climatic classification states that in Pakistan about two-third of cultivable land lies in semi-arid to arid regions (Chaudhry et al., 2004). There are three mountainous ranges, the Himalaya, Karakoram and Hindukush, to north of Pakistan, which retain the world’s third largest snow/ice reserves (Rasul, 2006; Naheed and Rasul, 2010). These glaciered mountains are considered as the water tanks over the roof, which make available water to the reservoirs for utility and the climate has the operational control of this tank, especially in context of rising temperature and heavy accumulation of greenhouse gases (Chaudhryet al., 2007).

The melting of glaciers during extreme summer provides surplus water to big water reservoirs such as Tarbela or Mangla in Pakistan. Nevertheless, it is primarily essential to understand the impact of climate change on mountains. On global scale, the mountains cover about 20% of the Earth's surface, and are inhabited by 10% of the world's population; and most significantly, the mountains provide 50% of the freshwater to humans for drinking, home consumption, irrigation of crops, and of industrial use (Hussain et al., 2005). On the other side, it is estimated that among world’s 845 million chronically undernourished people, many millions of them also live in mountain regions (Hussain et al., 2005; FAO, 2002) across Andes, Himalaya and other large mountain areas of the world. The impact of climate change on mountain areas is manifold; on the one side, mountain environments are under direct threat from such factors like unsustainable agricultural practices, overutilization of natural resources, and excessive deforestation. On the other side, due to the factors mentioned above the rising temperature causing melting of snow/ice is resulting into multifarious problems.

The northwestern Himalaya bordering Pakistan is influenced by part of the summer monsoon rainfall seasons. The variation trends observed on three different climate stations in different Himalayan mountain ranges from the period 1901 to 2002 identified that average rise in temperature of this region is 1.6oC per century. This rising temperature trend is not only higher than the global average rise, but also this is the strongest during winter months of last two decades (Bhutiyani et al., 2007). Further, some of the high altitude stations in this region demonstrate an even higher rise up to 3.8oC per century. Similarly, there were observed increasing tendencies of warm spells during the 21st century for northwestern region of Pakistan (ul Islam et al., 2009).

Saeed et al., (2011) stated that the South Asian region due to its geography and population and other complexities is considered as one of the most challenging regions in the evolution of its climate. In case of increase of annual average and maximum temperatures for regional areas of especially Khyber Pakhtunkhua, this is the main catchment area of irrigation water reservoir (Chaudhry et al., 2009). Bhutiyani et al., (2007) found that there are tendencies of strong increasing temperature annually for the western part of Himalaya, which are extremely higher than the global average. Further, even at the end of 21st century, there is predicted warming with rising 5 to 6 °C temperature along the mountainous regions of northern Pakistan (Sheikh et al., 2010).

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The Indus River catchment area is constituted of total 5000 glaciers in which total ice reserve volume is 850 km (688 MAF) and active melting zone is between 3500 and 4800 meters above sea level (Hashmi, 2008). In Pakistan, snow and glacier melt adds more than 80% water to Indus River System flows during Kharif season (April-September) and this flow is projected to increase during next two to three decades (Ali, 2008), following which the glaciers would recede (IPCC, 2007). However, such glacier reserves will be empty, thereby resulting in reduction in river flows by up to 30% to 40% during next fifty years (World Bank, 2006). Rees and Collins (2004), show that the receding tendency of glaciers in Himalayas is much faster than any other glacier in the world, and if it continues on this rate, the glaciers in Himalayas may likely be disappearing by the year 2035. Pakistan does not have enough water reservoirs to store such extra water which will be wasted down to Arabian sea unspent and will add up to already scarce situation of irrigation water.

Other than increases in water due to over melting of glaciers, there are several positive advantages expected due to rise in temperature in the high-mountain areas. In Pakistan, especially in mountain regions of Swat and Chitral districts, the increase in temperatures during the winter season has resulted into shortening of the Growing Season Length (GSL) and increased yield for wheat crop (Hussain and Mudasser, 2004); however, it has negative impact with low yield in wheat crops in the Swat valley located in the sub-mountain region.

5.3. Climatic Change and Irrigation Water Crisis In Pakistan, the shortage of irrigation water is due to climate change effect coupled with mismanagement (discussed in section 3), therefore has become burning issue for Pakistan’s agriculture, for increasing population and economy of the country. Similarly, those most impoverished farmers who grow crops for subsistence are unable to cope with this water shortage. As stated in previous section, monsoon rainfall is the lifeline of Indus water system of Pakistan, which not only furnishes the national power supply, but also meets the requirements of irrigation for seasonal crops; further, reservoirs of the system provide water during low flow period in winter for 4-5 months (Naheed and Rasul, 2010). The countries like Pakistan, whose economy is dependent on monsoon rains for irrigation of crops; the variations in monsoon precipitation have a categorical impact on socioeconomic conditions of that country (Sajani et al., 2007). According to the estimates of Water and Power Development Agency (WAPDA), the availability of per capita surface water was 5260 m3 per year in 1951 in Pakistan. However, due to twofold impacts of rising temperatures with subsequent low annual rainfall along with increasing demand for growing population, per capita surface water is reduced to just 1066 m3 in 2008 (Ahmed et al., 2009; Mustafa, 2011, Ali et al., 2013:1;). The biggest reservoir of Pakistan is situated in Khyber Pakhtunkhua, a province located in northwestern side of Pakistan adjacent to northern areas, which hosts thousands of glaciers covered with snow/ice. Similarly, the major portion of irrigation water is the amount of precipitation in northwestern Pakistan and is kept in Tarbela dam to provide water for irrigation purposes and for power generation. However, there is observed considerable reduction in irrigation water during summers, particularly in the second part of the 20th century (Chaudhry et al., 2009). Nonetheless, during winter season, there is observed increasing tendency of precipitation all over the century. Moreover, the country generally experienced uneven decade wise rainfall and was highest throughout 1950s. The analysis of data gathered from different climate stations all over northern Pakistan identified a rising rainfall fashion during winter (Fowler and Archer, 2004). Furthermore, climate observation data also recorded a distinctive declining tendency of summer monsoon rainfall and a delay in beginning of monsoon, especially for the period of second half of the 20th century (Ashfaq et al., 2009). Wang and LinHo (2002) stated that the start of monsoon in northwestern Pakistan usually occurs at approximately on 15 July and main reason for these findings is an enhanced greenhouse forcing. On the contrary, the increase concentrations of carbon dioxide with increase in moisture directly results into small increase of monsoonal rains in South Asia, notwithstanding a possible declining of the monsoon rainfall distribution (Cherchi et al., 2011). The greenhouse forces along with diverse human

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tempted activities i.e. the excessive land-use through agriculture intensification (Niyogi et al., 2010) and irrigation (Saeed et al., 2009) have resulted into declining of the summer monsoon. Due to increasing demand of water and climate change causing the shortage of water farmers have to adapt groundwater irrigation extensively, resulting into groundwater levels to fall by 1-3 meters per year (Rasul, 2010). According to data provided by Indus River System Authority (IRSA, 2012), there is found negative trend of actual surface water availability in Pakistan during 1st decade of 21st century (see table 4.3 for detail).

5.4. Natural Calamities and Water Resources As stated earlier, for agriculture and food production, the summer monsoon rainfall is the major supplier of water for irrigation in South Asia including Pakistan (Syed, 2011). Nevertheless, the rainfall variations in both amount and its division with respect to time and space are exceedingly sensitive and significant for agricultural production (Rupa Kumar et al., 2006). The adverse impacts of climate change in Pakistan are higher glacial melt and floods, prolonged periods of regional droughts, hot winter and early extreme, scorching, and lengthy summers thereby resulting in irrigation water crisis and overall agricultural productivity (Mustafa, 2011). Climate change however is enhancing the vulnerability of agricultural zones to periodic natural catastrophes such as storms, floods, and droughts, often resulting into socio-economic losses of Pakistan (NDMA, 2007: 3). There is need of essential social vulnerability paradigm in order to understand why certain individuals, households, or communities, residing in the same geographic region, experience divergences in food insecurity. The poor under different vulnerable conditions are more exposed to social, economic, and agro-environmental effects of climate change. Although agriculture is facing the strongest impacts of climate change, however on global scale, agriculture is a significant factor contributing to harshness of global weather conditions by emitting CO2, CH4 and N2O (Smith et al., 2007; IPCC, 2005) into environment. These gases have significant contribution in changing climate conditions that result into hazards like floods, mud storms, and cyclones, uncertainty of rainfall and its uneven temporal and spatial distribution. On the other hand, there are witnessed longer dry spells in some areas, which result into drought (Lai et al., 1998).

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6. Climate Change and Food Shortage in Pakistan

This section of the report discusses climate change and its relationship with shortage of food in Pakistan. This section covers nature and extent of shortage in food productivity especially of staple-cropped food like wheat, rice and vegetables and certain animal-based food. In addition, the section also focuses on the effects of food shortage in enhancing the vulnerabilities of poor marginalized segment of society.

6.1. Nature and Extent of Food Shortage Water is essentially connected with the food security of Pakistan. The agriculture sector contributes 21% to the GDP of the country, however agriculture utilizes around 90-95% of the freshwater; moreover, the agriculture sector not only employs 43% of the total work force of Pakistan, but it also accounts approximately 68% of livelihoods (Sayed, 2011). It is estimated that, about 60 to 77 million Pakistanis, mostly residing in rural areas and dependent on agriculture productions, are under threat of food insecurity (estimates of UNWFP, mentioned in Sayed, 2011). If it is held true, then 50 % of Pakistan’s population is food insecure mainly due to food shortage and high inflation rate (Action Aid, 2008). The gradual decrease in irrigation water, agriculture productivity, in food availability and resultant high inflation in food manifests the changing climate conditions in Pakistan. The extreme weather conditions and subsequent high temperature is the direct cause of low yields in agriculture and such productivity decline is likely to increase by changing climatic conditions (Pena and Hughes, 2007). Research studies have shown that during the second half of the 20th century and early years of the 21st century, the rise in temperatures along with changes in precipitation rate, have already had diversified effects on agriculture worldwide (Lobell et al., 2011). In addition to that, global warming is supposed to causing the decrease in cereal production in South Asia up to 18 to 22 % until 2080 (von Braun, 2007). Currently, Pakistan is considered as at high risk of food shortage (maplecroft, 213) as shown in figure 6.1.

Figure 6.1: Map showing Pakistan at high risk of food security in FSRI, 2013

The climate change is affecting food productivity directly and indirectly. The major impact seems on cropped food production. On the one hand, the rising temperature is affecting agriculture yield directly,

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and, on the other hand, the changing in rainfall pattern and melting of glaciers are either cause floods or scarcity of water during drought, and are in this way, indirect cause of food shortage in country. The change in climate and resultant rise in temperature results on low-cropped yield, food productivity with reduced nutritional status in the first instance (FAO, 2008a). Similarly, sudden natural calamities, such as flood due to high precipitation and fast melting of glaciers or drought due to low precipitation, could result into complete loss of available stored food. In Pakistan, of the total 79.6 million hectares geographical area, about 27 % currently comes under cultivation; further, 86 % of cultivable area is irrigated making Pakistan among the high proportionate of irrigation cropped areas in the world (SDPI, 2009). The growth in cropped area in Pakistan progressed from 11.6 million hectares in 1947 to 23.4 million hectares in 2006-07 (GoP-ESP, 2008-2009), which is although slow but significant growth rate. Moreover, approximately, 8.3 million hectares of cultivable wastelands could be used for high yield crops (SDPI, 2009) as long as there is access to irrigation water. In Pakistan, there existed inter and intra provincial inconsistencies in terms of food security. According to SDPI (2009) report, Pakistan’s 48.6 % of the population is food insecure in which the highest food insecurity is found in FATA1 (67.7 %) areas followed by provinces of Balochistan (61.2 %), Khyber Pakhtunkhua (56.2 %), and federal capital Islamabad (23.6 %). According to estimates, about 82.4 percent population of Dera Bugti (Balochistan) is food insecure. Similarly, among the worst food insecure top 20 districts of Pakistan, there are ten districts from province of Balochistan, five from FATA areas; three districts from province of Khyber Pakhtunkhua; and 1 from Gilgit Baltistan and Sindh province each.

6.2. Types of Food in Pakistan In Pakistan, food is available in two major sources; one of these sources of food is crop based food while the other food is based on food obtained from animals, birds, and watery life. However, the food security and availability is often determined based on “consumption as against production” of the food relative to time and space. In Pakistan, during 2009 the proportion of surplus food producing districts (both animal and crop based food) dropped from 28.3 % in 2003 to 17.5 % in 2009; resultantly, the majority of districts in Pakistan were relying on external food supply (SDPI, 2009). According to Economic Survey of Pakistan (2011-12), agriculture adds about 21 % to Pakistan’s overall GDP; however, this sector’s performance with only 2 % growth rate has been weak than the performance of the livestock, which has standing at around 55 percent. The reason is that the annual rainfall is less than 240 mm, and therefore 80 % of the crop production is dependent on irrigation. Table 6.1 describes the negative growth in food production from 2005 to 2012. Table 6.1: Agriculture Growth Percentage from 2005-2012 Year Agriculture Major Crops Minor Crops Livestock Fishery Forestry 2005-06 6.3 -3.9 0.4 15.8 20.8 -1.1 2006-07 4.1 7.7 -1 2.8 15.4 -5.1 2007-08 1 -6.4 10.9 4.2 9.2 -13 2008-09 4 7.8 -1.2 3.1 2.3 -3 2009-10 0.6 -2.3 -7.7 4.3 1.5 2.2 2010-11 2.4 -0.2 2.7 4 1.9 -0.4 2011-12 3.1 3.2 -1.3 4 1.8 1 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 2102 1 Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan such as Mahmand, Bajaor, Khyber, Orakzi and North and South Waziristan Agencies

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According to SDPI (2009) report, in Pakistan, almost 61 percent (84 out of 137) of the districts are exceedingly undersupplied for both cropped as well as animal-based food. Among the provinces, about 23 out of 24 districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhua are extremely food deficient. Similarly, the other extreme food deficient districts of Pakistan include Balochistan (76 %), Sindh (26 %), Punjab (21 %), FATA (100 %), and Gilgit Baltistan (100 %).

6.2.1. The Status of Cropped Food In Pakistan, the contribution of agriculture to national GDP was 53% in 1949-50, however, due to diverse factors inclusive of climatic change, this figure reduced to 21 % in 2008-09, thereby giving rise to increase in industrial sector, which contributes approximately 17% of GDP. Interestingly, the agriculture is still the major sector of national economy of Pakistan, which not only provides food to ever-increasing population of the country, but also ensures employment for approximately 44.7 % of Pakistan’s labour force (GoP-ESP, 2009). Similarly, the agriculture in Pakistan predominantly depends on irrigation water. Therefore, about 22.05 million hectares of the total cultivated area in Pakistan, approximately 19.12 million hectares or 84% of agriculture land is irrigated, while the remaining 16 % is fed by rainwater. Due to this, the agriculture utilizes greater than 90% available fresh-water of rivers and provides over 80% of the total agriculture produce of the country (Bhatti and Akhtar, 2002). Similarly, there is also portion of Pakistan classified as arid to semi-arid, and where rainfall is not adequate to cultivate agricultural crops (Waraich, 2005). Although economy of Pakistan is still based predominantly on agriculture, however the country witnessed some years of good agriculture growth while the others have recorded slow growth over last sixty years. Whereas during this period of slow growth, the population of the country has increased over four-fold (Iqbal et al., 2009). The government records show that the wheat yield grew from 14,585 Mtons in 1990-91 to 21 Mtons in 2007-08 whereas the rice yield rose from 0.86 Mtons in 1950-51 to 5.56 Mtons in 2007-08 (GoP-ESP 2009). The slow growth in production during 1990s and then during last decade of 21st century has been pointed to climate change. Such spells of slow growth coupled with some sudden catastrophes like drought conditions and flood are attributed to an increase in food-insecurity in the country. With ever-increasing population growth and rapidly changing climatic conditions, this prospect food insecurity is becoming more and more significant. The changing climate has direct relationship with shortening and increasing of growing season length. The shortening of crop life cycle gives rise to resultant loss in crop yield, because due to shorter period, the crop is not capable to complete its full production-potential. Further, the rise in temperature directly affects crop production. To understand the effects of rising temperature on crop yields in Pakistan and in other countries, the crop simulation-modeling studies have pointed to substantial losses in crop yields (Iqbal et al., 2009). Along with river-irrigated areas, there is also likely impact of rising temperature on substantial losses in crop yields in the rainfed areas of wheat production in South and Southeast Asia (Fischer et al., 2002). Such decline in crop yields of wheat and rice especially in non-irrigated areas due to increase in temperature greater than 2.5°C in South Asia, will incur a loss in farm level net-revenue between 0 and 25% (Kumar and Parekh, 1998). Further, in case of food production in South Asian countries, due to climate changes, the net cereal production is projected to decline at least 4 to 10% by the end of this century (Alam et al., 2007). However, there might be significant regional differences in wheat, rice, and maize crop yields due to climate variability (Rozenweig et al., 2001).

6.2.2. The Status of Major Staple Crops in Pakistan The water crisis not only influences agriculture and animal breeding at individual level, but also at the systems in which it is managed. According to estimates, Pakistan’s 22.8 % area and 49.6 % population is vulnerable to impacts of climate change (Mustafa, 2011). Wheat production in Pakistan is projected to

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reduce by 6-9% with just a 1°C rise in average temperature; however, this rise in temperature is expected to reduce productivity of other cash crops like sugarcane, rice, mango, and cotton (Rasul, 2010). Nevertheless, due to less effective and steady management of irrigation water in country, only 40% of river water actually irrigates the crops (Mustafa, 2011). As regards the agriculture and food production in Pakistan, due to remarkable variability in soil and of climatic conditions, there is possibility of different variety of crops pertains to food. Generally, there are two cropping seasons possible in Pakistan i.e. Rabi (winter) season and Kharif (summer) season. The Rabi season starts from mid-October to end in April, and the main edible crops are wheat, barley, gram, pulses, and linseeds. Similarly, Kharif season starts from April to end in October and mainly maize and rice are cultivated during this season. In addition, the secondary Kharif crops also called as “monsoon crops” are sugarcane, cotton, soyabeans, millets (bajra, jowar), pulses (moong), groundnuts, fruits, and variety of vegetables. Nevertheless, peculiarly in Pakistan, approximately 90 % of the total cultivable area hosts the major crops like wheat, cotton, maize, rice, and sugarcane (Shahbaz et al., 2010; Hussain and Mudasser, 2007). In case of Pakistan, the wheat and rice are staple foods and provide about 50% to a daily caloric consumption (SDPI, 2009). Essentially, and quite unlike the other countries, in Pakistan wheat bread baked in locally mud oven named ‘tandoor’ is consumed three times a day. Wheat in Pakistan therefore accounts for 13.1 % of agriculture produce and contributes 2.8 % to national GDP. a) Wheat Pakistan experienced diverse type of yields of wheat at different points in history. It is estimated that in the lower regions, the yield is supposed to be between 500 and 1,000 kg per acre, whereas in plain areas, it is about 3,500 to 4,000 kg per acre (PARC, 1982). Nevertheless, major portion of cropping being dependent on irrigation water, therefore, apparently better management of water and retention through irrigation system, for instance by dams, pools, pits, canals, and retaining ridges are essential for enhancing agriculture production. Irrigation is recognized as generating approximately 130 % more yields than rain-fed agriculture productive systems practiced in developing countries. Pakistan has mixed experiences of over- and underproduction with regard to wheat growth. During 2008, Pakistan produced wheat crop of approximately 21.8 million tons, which was slightly under country’s normal requirements and therefore had to import over 2 million tons of wheat at highest prices (SDPI, 2009). Contrary to that, the wheat support price (from Rs.425 per 40 kg two years earlier to Rs.950) announced by the government during 2008-09 wheat agriculture year, Pakistan became able to produce 24 million tons of wheat (GoP-ESP, 2008-09). However, again the country witnessed drop in wheat production during 2010-11 and 2011-12 (see table 6.2); against the initial estimates for the 2011-12 wheat crop were around 23.5 million tons. However, the country witnessed a drop in production in yield per hectare posted negative growth of 4.2 % as against 11 % growth during 2010-11, mainly due to drought conditions in parts of the rain fed areas and delayed sowing of wheat due to various climatic factors (PBS, 2013). Table 6.2: Area, Production, Yield of Wheat from 2007-2012

Year Area Production Yield thousand hectares

% Change thousand tons % Change kg/Ha % Change

2007-08 8550 -0.3 20959 -10 2451 -9.8 2008-09 9046 5.8 24033 14.7 2657 8.4 2009-10 9132 1 23311 -3 2553 -3.9 2010-11 8901 -2.5 25214 8.2 2833 11 2011-12 8666 -2.6 23517 -6.7 2714 -4.2 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 2013

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A research study conducted by Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) in 2009, evaluated the impact of climate change on the Rabi crops such as mainly wheat in four different agro-ecological zones namely northern mountainous region, northern sub-mountainous region, southern arid plains, and southern semi-arid plains (Sayed, 2011). The data shows that with the increase in average temperature, the interval of the growth period of wheat will be shorten for all agro-ecological zones in Pakistan. Therefore, with a temperature increase in the range of 1-5ºC, the productivity of wheat will increase in the mountainous regions, however the wheat yield will decrease drastically in the sub-mountainous, arid and semi -arid areas (GCISC, 2009). Whereas, mountainous region is not wheat productive areas, rather wheat is chiefly grown (more than 90%) in arid and semi-arid areas (Sayed, 2011).

b) Rice Rice is considered as essential component of daily diet of approximately three billion people across the world, therefore it is recognized as fundamental to food security. Similarly, each year, rice is cultivated on almost 144 million hectors of land (Peng et al., 2004) across the world. However, the rice fields with its warm soils are emitter of methane, which is one of a greenhouse gases. Further, Peng et al. (2004) have gathered and analyzed the data for 6 years from 227 irrigated rice farms from those six major rice-growing countries of Asia, which accounts almost 90 % of the world's rice. The study identifies that rising temperatures along with change in rainfall pattern has caused 10-20 % loss in rice production in this region. Rice is not only the major staple crop of Pakistan, but it is seeded on around 2.5 to 2.6 million hectares of land, which constitutes approximately 11 percent of total cultivated area in Pakistan (PBS, 2012). The national consumption of rice is 2 million tons and it is second staple food after wheat and is major cash crop (SDPI, 2009). Pakistan is recognized as 12th largest rice producer in the world and one of the top five exporters of rice in the world and during 2009, rice exports earned nearly US$ 2 billion (SDPI, 2009). During 2010-11, the country witnessed negative trend about 18 % not only cultivation of land but also in about 30 % in rice yield; there also seemed negative growth about 14.6 % in kilogram/hector yield (PBS, 2012). The majority of the rice producing districts of Pakistan belongs to province of Punjab, where agriculture is more irrigation intensive. However, from 2003 to 2012, there has been consistent shortage of water (about 15 % recorded in 2010-11) as shown in the table 4.3. Further, the production of water intensive crops like sugarcane and rice are facing the irrigation water crisis. Sugarcane and rice consumes more water per unit area of crop than any other crop grown in Pakistan (WWF–Pakistan, 2010; Rasul, 2000). Table 6.3: Area, Production, Yield of Rice from 2007-2012 Year Area Production Yield

thousand hectares % Change thousand tons % Change Kg/Ha % Change 2007-08 2515 -2.6 5563 2.3 2212 5 2008-09 2963 17.8 6952 25 2346 6.1 2009-10 2883 -2.7 6883 -1 2387 1.7 2010-11 2365 -18 4823 -30 2039 -14.6 2011-12 2571 8.7 6160 27.7 2396 17.5 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 2013

Over decades, there has been a consistent shortage of water due to either less rainfall or blockade of water in river Jhelum and Chenab by India, violating the Indus Water Treaty, or due to mismanagement of water reservoirs, so that farmers in Punjab are facing shortage of water for rice cultivation (Hussain, 2010). The shortage of irrigation water coupled with power shortage in Pakistan has compelled farmers in Punjab to shift from cultivating rice crops to other low water minor crops mainly vegetables or wheat or sunflower thereby creating food crisis of major staple food. There is already inflation on the consumer side, the

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farmers are not getting good prices, and only the intermediary sitting in the market is getting an undue profit. Table 6.3 indicates the negative tendency during 2009 to 2011 in cultivation, production, and yield of rice in Pakistan. 6.4.3. Animal-Based Food Animal-based food includes the livestock and dairy products, meat, eggs and fisheries. Although, still there is found growth with respect to animal based food, however, there is greater challenge to meet the demand of ever-increasing population of Pakistan due to multiple reasons inclusive of effects of climate change on irrigation water to cultivate fodder for livestock and rising temperature effects on animal growth and survival. The status of animal-based food in Pakistan is assessed below. a) Livestock In the rural hinterland of Pakistan, the livestock is considered as the lifeline of social and economic fabric of society. Livestock not only provide essential food to individual households for food sustenance or for commercial purposes, but also livestock is source of livelihoods for millions of people in agriculture as well as arid infertile areas across the world. Therefore, generally, in Pakistan, livestock (cows, sheep, and goats) is a significant part of households’ pride in rural part, though significant in terms of people’s livelihoods. In the village households, villagers use to keep the livestock in small herds of about 4 to 10 animals for subsistence as well as for commercial purposes. Accordingly, fodder or feed for livestock is grown (IUCN, 2001). Therefore, along with grazing animals, the growing demands of fuel and feed results into rigorous deforestation. On the other side, crop cultivation is mainly feasible only through irrigation normally in areas of livestock rearing. According to government statistics, in Pakistan annually, the livestock sector produces about 41 million tons of milk, over and above 3 million tons of meat and in excess of 10 billion eggs (Food, Agriculture & Livestock Division, 2013). The following table 6.4 provides the detail about three food commodities derived from animals on their production on annual comparative basis. Table 6.4: Estimated Livestock Products Production* Species Units 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Milk thousand tons 44,978 46,440 47,951 Meat thousand tons 2,965 3,095 3,232 Eggs Million (Numbers) 11,839 12,457 13,144 Source: Ministry of National Food Security & Research, 2013 *The figures for livestock product for the indicated years were calculated by applying production parameters to the projected population of respective years. Further, there is need to expand the livestock sector rapidly to meet the demand of meat and dairy products for ever-growing population of Pakistan. The production and growth of livestock itself requires fodder that is obtained from either husk of wheat and rice or from grass grown especially as fodder crop. Further, livestock is the world’s largest manipulator of land resources because it utilizes 26 % of grazing land on earth surface, and 33 % of cropland for production of livestock feed (FAO, 2009). Such feature of livestock has manifold implications in respect of climate change. On the one hand, the rapid growth of this sector worldwide including Pakistan is causing deforestation, land degradation, and rise in temperature. On the other side, livestock’s ruminant digestion and disposal of dung is also responsible for largest emissions of methane and nitrous oxide on global scale (FAO, 2010b). As stated above, the conventional feed of livestock, especially in context of developing countries of South Asia, is provided by cropland that also needs extensive availability of water.

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In case of climate-wise hot countries like Pakistan, climate change is not only disastrous for crop sector, but it is resulting into vulnerability of the livestock sector. Due to rise in temperature and heat, the direct impacts on livestock are physiological stresses, lowering of milk and meat production. However, the indirect implications are witnesses in terms of extreme climate events such as floods, droughts, and heavy rainfall on the habitat and culture of animals. In addition, these also constitute the implications on the productivity of feed of animal, on reduction of nutritive quality of forage plants due to increase in CO2 concentration; priority of cultivation of land for staple food rather than animal fodder and lastly, the increased requirements of water for both animals and crops (GoP-PC, 2010).

b) Fisheries Along with agriculture, aquaculture like fishing and associated food industry provides food as well as opportunity for livelihoods of millions of people. Fisheries have become more essential to global food security especially in circumstances of climate change. In addition, fisheries provide significant food to humans along with agriculture and aquaculture; they provide approximately 50 % of the fish consumed by humans (FAO, 2009c). Even the fishing and other seafood is also facing the pressure of rapidly changing global ecological and regional climate change. Suddenly over the decades, numerous resources of fisheries worldwide have declined rapidly due to overfishing, pollution, water mismanagement, and gradual destruction of coastal areas. Pakistan’s fisheries have a significant contribution in economy and for food security of the country and it adds approximately 1.00 million tons of fish products annually (ESP, 2011-12). The fishery in Pakistan is constituted of marine sources (70 %); and the rest 30 % comes from inland sources mainly rivers and canals. These inland resources directly feed the people living near banks as well. Nevertheless, the heavy monsoon precipitation during the flood years caused devastation in respect of inland sources of fisheries resulting into high market prices of fish food in Pakistan. During winter season, water in rivers being less indirectly cause the low growth of fishery owing to over consumption of fish during winter. Above agriculture production, the fisheries at household level and on small scale commercial level has been providing food and livelihoods for considerable population in Pakistan. In addition, the world’s water environment including glaciers, seas, rivers and lakes provide not only healthy environment but also provide food production on sustainable basis. 6.5. The Relationship of Food Shortage and Climate Change In Pakistan, climatologically there are three principal factors, mainly the day length, temperature, and evaporation, which are significant in terms of crops productivity (Naheed and Rasul, 2011). The length of the day varies from 10 hours in January during winter to 14 hours in June during summer. Simultaneously, the crops growth in Pakistan is mostly neutral with respect to photoperiodicity (Naheed and Rasul, 2011). However, the temperature is significant factor for wheat production, especially at higher latitudes (PARC, 1982). Crop cultivation and productivity in Pakistan is climate driven. Therefore, rising temperature with subsequent impact on rainfall and availability of water causes irregular crop productivity. In Pakistan, in the Rabi season, main staple food like wheat, barley and pulses are grown. Nevertheless, the Rabi season starts in months which are often dry and receive little amount of rainfall in the country. Because of the dry environment, sowing is started a bit late during late November or early December, which often results into low yield. On the other hand, the low temperature in snowfall areas gives rise to long dormancy period of crops for which harvesting period extends up to May (Naheed and Rasul, 2011). Although the winter rains (December to March) play a vital role during Rabi season, however this rain is restricted to higher latitudes and in non-cultivable areas of the mountain ranges. Simultaneously, mostly at critical stages of the crop growth, long dry periods due to lowering rainfall became risky and results into poor crop yield. Therefore, there is much risk involved, when crops are sown which depend only on rains without supplementary irrigation water.

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The Kharif season begins when the crops of Rabi are harvested in May and the season lasts by the end of the calendar year. Cotton, sugarcane, rice and several vegetables are significant crops during this season. Although the crops of Kharif are more water intensive, the season normally begins with the driest and hottest months of May and June, when there is almost zero precipitation in the country. Rasul et al. (1993) stated that the rise in temperature has direct relationship with the rate of evapotranspiration and extra water requirement of crops in Pakistan. The temperature crosses 50°C during peak growth months of June, July and August in wheat and rice producing districts of Pakistan. Nevertheless, in the next three months from July-September, the monsoon rains play much pivotal role in coping with the dry conditions. These rains help in reducing the evaporation by increasing the humidity particularly in the northern half of the country (Naheed and Rasul, 2011). Further, such precipitation decreases the temperature in northern half of the country considerably, with small effect on temperature of southern half of country. Although, southern half of the country receives variations in precipitation on different years, however most of the time the amount of rainfall is insufficient to lower temperature to reduce over evapotranspiration due to high temperature and drier atmosphere. Simultaneously, sometime heavy rainfall and cyclonic activity cause a sudden change like floods or cyclones in southern region and along the coastal areas of Pakistan resulting into low cropped productivity

6.6. Socioeconomic Vulnerability to Food Shortage For populations more exposed to food scarcity, there is also a related social and economic vulnerability. Understanding vulnerability in broad socioeconomic context of the country reveals why certain individuals, households, or communities, residing in the same geographic region, experience divergences in food insecurity. The findings of research imply that poor undergoing different vulnerable conditions are more exposed to social, economic, and agro-environmental effects of climate change in Pakistan. Due to rapid urbanization and subsequent urban poverty, climate change has significantly increased food insecurity thereby causing the risk of severe undernourishment for poor (Ravallion and Chen, 2008) across the world. According to estimates of United Nation medium variant population and urbanization, by 2050, approximately 67 % of the world’s population will live in urban areas, whereas rural population will be declining from 3.4 billion in 2010 to 2.9 billion by that time (UN, 2011: 1-2). Accordingly, the rapid industrialization coupled with growing urbanization is giving rise to food insecurity especially in urban centers of Pakistan. The rural side is still capable to manage their food requirements; however, cities are often incapable of providing adequate opportunities to its citizens for employment and access to safe and sustainable food. In Pakistan, the high growth in population and low growth of agriculture is the direct cause of food shortage and high inflation rate. It is in common observation and citizens report that the urban poor have to spend his whole income in purchasing food. The sudden incidents caused due to climate change along with higher occurrences of natural as well as human-made disasters gives rise to serious disruptions in food production and food-supply into cities. Poverty and vulnerability is inseparable because poor are extremely vulnerable to changes in food security because on the one hand, poor are unable to meet their basic requirement of food on daily basis, and, on the other hand, they are extremely vulnerable to impoverishment, starvation, and even early mortality. Although there may be diverse reasons, the countries with less resources and downgraded economic conditions have the high poverty level and food insecurity. Pakistan is one of such countries and ranked at position 11th as country at ‘extreme risk’ on the Food Security Risk Index (FSRI, 2013), ahead of Bangladesh and India which, though at ‘high risk’ (ranked 20th and 25th), are better off than Pakistan. The vulnerability related to food security can be gauged by looking in terms of direct nutritional effects and livelihood. The vulnerability of poor at household level is mostly related with livelihoods. On the one hand, the opportunities to earn livelihood is scarce due to low productivity and resource constraints; it means that farmers often have less cultivable land and inadequate resources like high yield seeds, fertilizers, pesticides and irrigation water. On the other hand, natural or manmade calamities such as flood and drought cause harvest failure giving rise to threats to livelihoods of farmers. However, in rural hinterland the strong households with diverse agriculture assets are better survived from livelihood shocks.

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In addition, the poor are more vulnerable to food insecurity than that of rich due to the reason that rich could afford to sustain in condition of food insecurity and high inflation. Food inflation is significant indicator of food insecurity in any country. In Pakistan, the food prices soared 36 % during 2007-08 giving rise to extreme food insecurity (SDPI, 2009). Currently, food inflation is the constant problem and often experienced by citizens in every corner of Pakistan. There are diversified reasons for food inflation in Pakistan that are mainly natural as well as artificially created and often correlate in circumstances of food shortage. On the one hand, rising temperature and inadequate irrigation water has deep effects on crops yield, and, on the other hand, due to changing climatic conditions, the occurrences of natural disasters like floods, droughts or diseases result into spoilage and ultimately shortage of food. In this backdrop, the year 2010-11 and then 2011-12 in Pakistan observed high demand-pull and cost-push inflation during floods, which almost wiped out the major and minor standing crops in Khyber Pakhtunkhua, Southern Punjab, Interior Sindh, and some parts of Balochistan province. The data about inflation on yearly basis exposes that the CPI (consumer price index) was highest during flood timings in July 2011 at about 12.4 %, which reduced to 9.7 % in December 2011; however, it again rose to 11.3 % in April 2012 (GoP-ESP, 2013). This time the increase in CPI index was due to less availability of food in the market because year 2012 in Pakistan passed without experiencing flood. In urban area Karachi, which is the sole metropolitan of Pakistan, the prices of staple foods like wheat (approx 37% of total energy supply), and rice (approx 6% of total energy supply), rose from Rs: 12.00/kg, and 26.60/kg in June 2006 to Rs: 35.00/kg to Rs: 76.13/kg in June 2013 respectively (Global Information and Early Warning System,. Internet: 2013). Figure 6.1 and table 6.5 describes the increasing trend of prices of wheat and rice for the years 2006-2013. Figure 6.2: Inflation trend in metropolitan Karachi

Table 6.5: The inflation trend in staple food rice and wheat for year 2006-2013 in Karachi Year Rice ( Rs/Kg) Wheat (Rs/kg)

2006 20.6 12 2007 36.6 13.1 2008 58.5 23 2009 43.27 25 2010 43.27 25 2011 51.23 27.2 2012 66.54 28.5 2013 76.13 35

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The data shows that there was approximately 271% increase in prices of rice and approximately 200% increase in wheat prices recorded for the years 2006-2013 in Karachi. It was also the case in other urban areas of Pakistan with little variations. Further, the study identified that due to various law and order situation, the prices of such commodities are often observed much more than the above mentioned prices. Similarly, the impact of low agriculture production and subsequent food insecurity is manifold on women of south Asia including Pakistan. On the one side, women have to suffer from a low calories intake in developing countries like Pakistan. On the other side, in developing countries, especially in South Asia, women constitute approximately 50 % of the agricultural labour force (FAO, 2009a). Therefore, low growth in agriculture results into lowering of livelihood opportunities for women. With rapid increase in urbanization and growth in urban population especially in circumstance of global climate change in developing world, there is need to focus on supporting food and nutrition security (Satterthwaite et al., 2010). In this background, there is need to focus on large scale farming to make available the consistent adequate supply of food to meet the urban demand, which in case of Pakistani context needs irrigation water along with modern agriculture tendencies. The physical environment and agriculture has been coexistent from the dawn of human history. However, food security is embedded within ever changing biophysical and socioeconomic environment posed by climate change. There are scenarios of global food shortage with more regional effects, increased food demand from growing and wealthier global population, enhanced water conflicts, agriculture resource constraints, and ever-increasing demand and consumption of energy. However, it is difficult for poor and vulnerable countries, such as Pakistan, to adopt social regulations, economic initiatives, and biophysical adjustments to its food production, processing system and consumption culture. Although the Green Revolution in 1970s and 1980s improved agriculture productivity (Lefebvre, 1999) in Pakistan, however, such increased production could not exceed certain thresholds due to over population. Again, even after adopting the policy of population control and other agriculture support initiatives, Pakistan is still a net importer of several essential food items (SDPI, 2009).

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7. Conclusion

Environment, human existence, and food are inseparable as far as life on earth is concerned. Pakistan is one of those countries in South Asia, which has to face the severe implications of climate change, especially at a critical time of its social and economic development. About 21% of Pakistan’s (already crippled) economy is believed to be based on agriculture production and associated livelihood opportunities. Similarly, around 80% of agricultural yield is produced by cultivation of land mainly through irrigation from available river-water through world biggest irrigation system. This report demonstrates that climate change in Pakistan has given rise to increase in temperature, variations in precipitation, increase in glacier-melt, and increase in evaporation leading to further release of greenhouse gases, and further increasing temperature and crop-water requirements. The agriculture is heavily dependent on irrigation water obtained through an annual influx into the Indus river system (which is constituted of river Indus, Chenab, Jhelum, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) of about 180 billion cubic meters of water, mostly from monsoon rains and snowmelt in the Himalayas during summer warming.

Climate change is not locally specific; rather it has trans-boundary, regional and global implications in terms of global warming. It is now admitted fact that globally, the 19th and 20th centuries’ industrialization development has resulted in environment pollution and enhanced climate change that in turn has given rise to food insecurity, shortage of irrigation water, energy crisis and scarcity of a safe healthy environment in most parts of the world at large. In this background, the study finds out that although Pakistan is not contributing much greenhouse gases into atmosphere, however, the country is sharing the trans-boundary global warming. Simultaneously, both urban as well as rural areas in Pakistan are contributing in changing the climate. On the one side, urban centers are becoming congested with developing industries, increasing pollution, worsening atmosphere, and poor water quality and waste management. On the other hand, the rural areas are observing fast deforestation, crop failure, loss of biodiversity and habitat, barrenness and desertification. Moreover, the low forest cover of Pakistan is aggravating the effect of climate change in terms of rise in temperature and fast melting of glaciers in north.

Climate change has many implications for food security in Pakistan. First, uneven, and untimely availability of adequate irrigation of water causes lower crop yield in irrigated crop zones. Farmers are less interested in cultivating water intensive crops like rice and sugarcane that require more water now due to strong evaporation. Second, the severity of temperature with high evaporation during long summer season has direct impact on low crop yield. Third, the extra melting of glaciers coupled with uneven annual rainfall often results into flash floods with millions of people dislocated and loss of billions of worth in food, standing crops and infrastructure. Fourth, the frequency as well as intensity of extreme natural catastrophes like floods, drought, and cyclones, results into serious damages for the standing crops coupled with immense damage to life, livelihood, and property. Finally yet importantly, due to ever-increasing population of the country and inadequate supply of food in the market, the inflation rate is being too high for the poor people to have easy access to food. The chief staple foods like wheat, rice, maize, sugarcane, and vegetables have become out of the reach of poor people.

Therefore, at the time, when the global community is stressing the need for a transition to green economy in order to avoid further harshness in climatic conditions, the already agriculture-based countries such as Pakistan are facing problems associated with food security due to an irrigation water crisis for crop production. Food security not only carries with it the sufficiency of available food, but it also ensures people’s full access to food on sustainable grounds. Pakistan needs certain policy recommendations and actions to be taken on national and international level to overcome the effects of climate change and food shortage. First, there is a need to have a comprehensive foreign policy to be part of efforts at global level to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases at the trans-boundary level on the long-term basis. Locally, the reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases can be accomplished by reducing transport automobiles, stopping the increase in industrialization, encouraging green economy, and facilitating better agriculture practices. Second, on the short term, the successive governments in Pakistan need to put emphasis on agriculture, management of water through constructing reservoirs and control over population growth rate. There is need of building large reservoirs to store extra water in order to use it during winter to avoid the effects of floods that the country receives in case of uneven precipitation and extra melting of glaciers

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during summer season. Pakistan also needs to frame policy for agriculture constitutive of research, assistance to farmers for seeds, fertilizers and pesticides, and management as well as provision of irrigation water, and mechanism to regulate market for affordable prices of crops. Finally, Pakistan needs to have robust birth control policy in order to reduce the birth rate because with this increasing population growth rate, the country will have to face enhanced food shortage.

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