Climate Risks, Threats, and Vulnerabilities: The Philippine Setting

Rosa T. Perez, PAGASA-DOSTRomeo S. Recide, BAS-DAAmelia Supetran, UNDP

Regional Workshop on Climate Risk Management for Asia

23 – 26 April 2007Kathmandu, Nepal

Observed Climate Change-Related Changes (IPCC, SPM-1,

2007) Warming of the

climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in:

1. Global average air and ocean temperatures

2. Rising global mean sea level

3. Widespread melting of snow and ice

Climate Change Signals, Impacts

and Vulnerabilities – the Philippine Setting• Surface temperature

increase and sea level rise are consistent with global trends. Hot days and hot nights have become more frequent

• Deadly and damaging typhoons, floods, flash floods, landslides, severe El Niño and La Niña events, drought, forest fires, etc. occurred more frequently, since 1980

• Agriculture; fresh water, coastal and marine resources; health, etc, adversely affected

ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE PHILIPPINES

y = 0.0143x - 0.206

-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5

61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00

YEAR

TEM

PER

ATU

RE

AN

OM

ALY

Note that 1982-83, 1989-90 and1997-98 were El Nino Years

Vulnerability to Drought (El Niño) of Major Agriculture Crops

Effect of Typhoons on the GDP and Agriculture

Agriculture is the Sector most affected by tropical cyclones. The highest ratio of tropical cyclone damage to agricultural output was 4.21% in 1990, followed in 1988 by 4.05%. Typhoon damage rose to more than 1% of GDP in 1984, 1988, and 1.17%, the highest, in 1990.

(Data source: NDCC/NSCB, 2003)

Vulnerability of Water Resources to Climate Change

• The frequency of occurrence of extreme events affects the rainfall and inflow patterns of the reservoirs.

• Annual inflows at Angat Dam were most deficient during the 1983-84 and 1997-98 strong El Niños (resulted in water rationing in Metro Manila)

• During the 70s, more cold, La Nina-type episodes dominated resulting to a relatively moist decade

Health in relation to Weather/Climate Parameters

• Many vector-, food-, and water-borne infectious diseases are sensitive to changes in climatic conditions

• Rainfall and humidity data could be useful indicators of rise in dengue and other vector/water borne infectious cases)

Vulnerability of Coastal (Marine) Resources to Warming

• The diversity of corals could be affected with the branching corals (e.g., staghorn coral) decreasing or becoming locally extinct and the massive corals (e.g., brain corals) increasing (WGII TAR, 2001)

• Massive coral bleaching in various reefs through- out the Philippines during the severe 1997-98 ENSO episode (Arceo, H.O. et al., 2001)

• Fish kills and high mortality of cultured giant clams, severe red tide outbreaks after strong El Niño periods. The worst incidence of red tide in Manila Bay occurred in 1992, another El Niño period.

Areas Endangered by ASLR(Provinces)

*Aurora*Cagayan*Quezon*Ilocos Norte*Ilocos Sur*La Union*Pangasinan*Zambales

*Bulacan*MetroManila*Cavite*Mindoro Oriental*Camarines Sur*Capiz*Iloilo*Cebu

Areas Endangered by ASLR

*Bohol*Leyte*Samar*Negros Occidental*Agusan del Norte*Davao del Sur

*Davao Oriental*Maguindanao*Misamis Occidental*Misamis Oriental*Surigao del Norte

Vulnerability to Extreme Weather Events

• The Ormoc catastrophic flash flood (November 5, 1991):

• Cherry Hill tragedy (August 1999):

• Payatas garbage-slide (July 10, 2000):

• Baguio-La Trinidad landslides (July 2001):

•

• Camiguin flashfloods (November 7, 2001):

• Southern Leyte-Surigao disaster (December 2003):)

• Aurora-Infanta floods (November-December 2004):

Extreme Weather Events: Tragedies after tragedies…

Vulnerability to Extreme Weather Events

In 2006, heavy, continuous rains caused massive landslides in:

• Guinsaugon, Southern Leyte• Legaspi, Albay

These extreme weather events have one thing in common – persistent torrential rains, causing landslides and flash floods, killing people and destroying properties along its path

Forests

• Increased conversion rate (to agriculture) with rainfall pattern changes

• Accelerated forest loss in drier areas; increased precipitation has resulted in soil erosion & flood occurrences

• Decrease in local biodiversity through extinction & inhibition of re-immigration from adjacent areas

PRESCRIBED ADAPTATION MEASURES

Adaptation: Information and awareness

• Coastal system description/observation (maps, tide gauges, buoys, remote sensing, surveys).

• Climate impact and coastal hazard assessment (scenarios, models, place-based analysis, analogues).

• Awareness raising (printed information, audio-visual media, interactive tools).

Adaptation: Planning and design• Simulation tools (sediment budget

models, hydrologic model, economic models)

• Decision tools (cost-benefit analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis, multi-criteria analysis)

• Integration tools and frameworks (e.g., Adaptation Policy Frameworks, National Action Plans for Adaptation)

• Cross-cutting technology (geographical information systems, remote sensing)

Adaptation: Implementation• Protect - decrease probability of

occurrence (e.g., dikes, seawalls, beach nourishment)

• Retreat - limit potential effects (e.g., establishing set-back zones, relocating threatened buildings)

• Accommodate - increase society’s ability to cope with the effects (e.g., early warning systems, contingency plans, insurance, comprehensive land use and agricultural practices)

Management Systems

• Environmental Management /Impact Assessment

• Integrated Water Resources Management

• Integrated Watershed Management• Integrated Coastal Zone Management• Disaster Risk Management• Integrated River Basin Management• Etc….

PROPOSED ADAPTATION MEASURESFOR THE PHILIPPINES

(Per the Philippines Initial National Communication on Climate Change)

Agriculture

• Changes in agricultural mgmt. practices

• Natural rainfall mgmt. incl. water impounding dams & evap. control;

• Cropping pattern adjustment• Diversified farming• Introduction of new, least cost

tech.e.g. hydroponics• Improvement of post-harvest &

bulk handling facilities

Coastal

• Guidelines & legislation for integrated coastal zone management

• Multi-hazard mitigation & protection plan for coastal areas

• Mangrove resources development, with emphasis on reforestation

• IEC campaign on climate variability and change and resultant impacts

• Limiting dev’t. of land sensitive to sea level rise, e.g. barrier islands, coastal wetlands, estuarine shorelines

Water Resources

• Comprehensive watershed management• Water allocation system & procedures• Enhancement of irrigation efficiency• Introduction of low water use crops &

efficient farming practices• Water reuse/recycling• Use of water pricing & structures• Promoting awareness of climate

variability & change

National Adaptation Efforts(with donor support)

• Multi-hazard mapping, risk assessment & early warning systems for 43 provinces

(READY)- AusAid/UNDP• Capacity building for NGAs on

adaptation- (WB)• Mainstreaming DRM into national dev’t.

planning (NPFP, MTPDP,CLUPs,LDPs)-EC/UNDP

• Nat’l. Adaptation Planning for CC – GEF/UNDP

• Nat’l. DRM Framework – ADB/UNDP

The way forward…Lessen the impacts of climate change: Undertake systematic physical, social and

economic vulnerability assessments and adopt appropriate adaptation measures;

Extreme weather events and sea level rise scenarios should be given priority, due to the Philippines’ unique geographical setting and proneness to storm surges;

Improve the warning system and disaster management;

Upgrade climate change awareness; Incorporate appropriate measures into

national development plans, etc.

The way forward…

Implement mitigation measures to lessen greenhouse gas emissions:

• shift in energy mix, • adoption of energy efficiency

measures ( no regrets actions resulting in positive ancillary benefits)

Thank you!