Climate Process modeling Team (CPT)

Ming Ji (NOAA/OGP)Ming Ji (NOAA/OGP)

NAME Science Working GroupNAME Science Working Group

Nov. 6, 2003Nov. 6, 2003

NOAA ISIP Program

• Provide the Nation with a seamless suite of climate forecasts and application products to manage risks and opportunities of climate impacts due to intra-seasonal to interannual climate variations

ISIP Program Components

1. High-end model development (e.g., NCEP, GFDL, GMAO, CCSM)

2. Experimental Prediction 3. Forecast and Application Products Development4. Research and Development (e.g., NAME)

Observing and understanding Improving physical representation in models Transition research into operations

(e.g., improving operational models through CPTs) Legacies:

Thinking about impact on “operations” before thinking about the next process study

CPT as a Framework to Facilitate the Path of Research to Operations

• CPT is an attractive framework for linking theory, process studies and experiments, diagnostics, process model development, climate and prediction models, and observations.

• CPTs focus on improvements in major (operational) climate models as deliverable

Climate Process TeamsCooperative Development

Climate modeldevelopment &

improvementProcess modeldevelopment

Process experiments and observations

Data, knowledge

Lack of focus, little interaction

DeliverablesDocumented observations

Improved parameterizations

Impact evaluation

Plans for additional process studies

Observing requirements

• Improving key deficiencies of physical processes (parameterizations) common in climate models

Model intercomparison projects are insufficient to address how to improve physical processes in models

• Bridging the large gap between process research (process observation and process modeling) and climate model development efforts

• Guiding (some of) future process studies

• Identifying sustained observational requirements

Climate Process modeling and science Teams

Approach

• Provide resources to small teams of observationalists, diagnostic scientists, process modelers, and (one or more) developers of climate models:

– Focus on interaction & deliverables (not manuscripts) that lead to demonstrated improvement in climate models

– Establish collaborative efforts between the research community and modeling centers

– Encourage active long-term mechanisms

– Management mechanisms (Institutional and programmatic commitment)

NSF-NOAA Pilot CPT Development

Pilot Phase Summary

• US CLIVAR developed concept and recommended scientific areas where rapid progress was likely (GFDL-CCSM Priorities)

• NSF and NOAA announcement (2003: ~$2.5M per year) to address critical issues in IPCC class climate models

• Three Pilot CPTs established (2003) to demonstrate the concept:

– Low-latitude cloud feedbacks on climate sensitivity

– Ocean mixing in overflow regions (e.g. over steep topography)

– Mesoscale eddy interaction with upper-ocean mixing

April 2002 GFDL/NCAR Workshop on Atmospheric Model Development

Recommendations for science process teams:

What are the highest priority problems on which to focus attention in order to improve climate change models on < 5 year time scales?

1) Cloud feedbacks and climate sensitivity

How can we best confront our models with observations to improve cloud prediction schemes so as to reduce the uncertainty in global climate sensitivity?

2) Deep tropical convection and convective parameterization

Deficiencies in tropical convection schemes are a major impediment towards creating better coupled models and simulating regional climate change

Climate Feedback Differences Between GFDL and NCAR Models

Climate sensitivity rankingsLow level cloud changes at 2xco2

Timeline for Pilot CPTs

2002-2003: PlanningCCSM-GFDL workshopCPT white paperTropical Bias workshop (double ITCZ)Vest in the community (CCSM-SAB, CLIVAR-SSC/SSG, WCRP/JSC, NRC)

Spring 2003: Joint NSF-NOAA AOSummer 2003: ReviewsSept. 2003: Funding Decisions

Low-latitude feedbacks on climate sensitivity Three high-end modeling centers (CCSM, GFDL, GMAO) Eight University research groups (PIs)

Ocean mixing processes (2 teams, all Major OGCMs)Oct. 1, 2003: Start of 3-year projects

NAME CPTs ?

Goal: Improving operational weather and climate models through NAME obs and NAME science

2004: PlanningHigh priority processes: NCEP-GMAO-GFDL? Others? Diurnal Cycle? Convective Precip over complex terrain?

Vest in the community (NAME, VAMOS, GAPP, PACS, others)

Winter 2004/05: AO ?FY06 Starts ?