bangladesh university of engineering and technology climate change modeling: an overview climate...

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Climate Change Modeling: Climate Change Modeling: An overview An overview

A.K.M. Saiful Islam

Climate Change Training for Water Professionals

Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET

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Presentation outline Overview of climatic system

Green house effect

Global warming

Ice melt and rise of sea level

Climate model and predictions

General Climate Model - GCM

Regional Climate Model – RCM

Climate modeling at BUET

3D models


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Climate Systems

• The complicated system consisting of various components, including the dynamics and composition of the atmosphere, the ocean, the ice and snow cover, the land surface and its features, the many mutual interactions between them, and the large variety of physical, chemical and biological processes taking place in and among these components.

• Climate refers to the state of the climate system as a whole, including a statistical description of its variations.

Atmosphere

– 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, and 1% other gases.– Carbon dioxide accounts for just 0.03 - 0.04%. – Water vapor 0 to 2%


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Components of Climate System


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Green house gases

CO2 and some other minor gases

1. Absorb some of the thermal radiation leaving the surface of the earth.

2. Emit radiation from much higher and colder levels out to space.

These radiatively active gases are known as greenhouse gases.

– They act as a partial blanket for the thermal radiation from the surface which enables it to be substantially warmer than it would otherwise be, analogous to the effect of a greenhouse.


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Green house effect


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Human induced climate variation Perturbations of the atmospheric composition – the

enhanced greenhouse effect

Effect of aerosols:

– direct effect (scattering of incoming solar radiation)– indirect effect (affecting the radiative properties of clouds)

Land-use change (agriculture, deforestation, reforestation, afforestation, urbanisation, traffic, …)


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Increasing trends of CO2


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Human induced changes of green house gases


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Sector wise Green house gas emission


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Country wise emission of CO2

Per capita emissions of CO2 is less than 0.2 ton annually in Bangladesh, compared to 1.6 tons in the developing countries


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Global temperature and Greenhouse gases


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Temperature variation past 1,000 years


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Increase of Temperature past 140 year


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Trends of increase of Temperature


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Surface Air temperature (1960-1990)


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Antarctic Ozone hole

The Antarctic ozone hole forms in the southern hemisphere’s spring (Sept.-Nov) following the bitterly cold and dark Antarctic winter when stratospheric ice clouds promote production of chemically active chlorine and bromine.

This, in turn, leads to ozone destruction when sunlight returns in the Antarctic spring.

The serious thinning of the stratospheric ozone layer is caused by anthropogenic emissions of ozone depleting substances, such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) and halons. The atmospheric concentrations of these compounds have increased during the last several decades as a consequence of human activity.


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Ice melting Images from gathered from the Defense Meteorological

Satellite Program of NASA show the minimum Arctic sea ice concentration 1979 (left) and 2003 (right).

1979 2003


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Cracks in Ice bars


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Sea Level Rise (1980-2000)


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Climate Models Climate models are computer-based simulations that use

mathematical formulas to re-create the chemical and physical processes that drive Earth’s climate.

To “run” a model, scientists divide the planet into a 3-dimensional grid, apply the basic equations, and evaluate the results.

Atmospheric models calculate winds, heat transfer, radiation, relative humidity, and surface hydrology within each grid and evaluate interactions with neighboring points.

Climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice.


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Hardware Behind the Climate Model

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory


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General Circulation Model (GCM) General Circulation Models (GCMs) are a class of

computer-driven models for weather forecasting, understanding climate and projecting climate change, where they are commonly called Global Climate Models.

Three dimensional GCM's discretise the equations for fluid motion and energy transfer and integrate these forward in time. They also contain parametrisations for processes - such as convection - that occur on scales too small to be resolved directly.

Atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) model the atmosphere and impose sea surface temperatures.

Coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs (AOGCMs, e.g. HadCM3, EdGCM, GFDL CM2.X, ARPEGE-Climate) combine the two models.


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GCM typical horizontal resolution of between 250 and 600 km, 10 to 20 vertical layers in the atmosphere and sometimes as many as 30 layers in the oceans.


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Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) was a report prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the Third Assessment Report (TAR) in 2001, on future emission scenarios to be used for driving global circulation models to develop climate change scenarios.

It was used to replace the IS92 scenarios used for the IPCC Second Assessment Report of 1995. The SRES Scenarios were also used for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007.


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SERS Emission Scenarios A1 - a future world of very rapid economic growth, global

population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Three sub groups: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance across all sources (A1B).

A2 - A very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is that of strengthening regional cultural identities, with an emphasis on family values and local traditions, high population growth, and less concern for rapid economic development.

B1 - a convergent world with the same global population, that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline.

B2 - a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability.


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Non SRES Scenarios Non-SRES Scenario: PICTL

Experiments run with constant pre-industrial levels of greenhouse gasses.

Non-SRES Scenario: 20C3M

Experiments run with greenhouse gasses increasing as observed through the 20th century.

Non-SRES Scenario: COMMIT

An idealised scenario in which the atmospheric burdens of long-lived greenhouse gasses are held fixed at AD2000 levels.

Non-SRES Scenario: 1PTO2X (1% to double)

Experiments run with greenhouse gasses increasing from pre-industrial levels at a rate of 1% per year until the concentration has doubled and held constant thereafter.

Non-SRES Scenario: 1PTO4X (1% to quadruple)

Experiments run with greenhouse gasses increasing from pre-industrial levels at a rate of 1% per year until the concentration has quadrupled and held constant thereafter.


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gyGCM output described in the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (SRES scenarios), multilayer mean

Models Scenarios Variables

BCC:CM1BCCR:BCM2CCCMA:CGCM3_1-T47CCCMA:CGCM3_1-T63CNRM:CM3CONS:ECHO-GCSIRO:MK3GFDL:CM2GFDL:CM2_1INM:CM3IPSL:CM4LASG:FGOALS-G1_0MPIM:ECHAM5MRI:CGCM2_3_2NASA:GISS-AOMNASA:GISS-EHNASA:GISS-ERNCAR:CCSM3NCAR:PCMNIES:MIROC3_2-HINIES:MIROC3_2-MEDUKMO:HADCM3UKMO:HADGEM1

1PTO2X1PTO4X20C3MCOMMITPICTLSRA1BSRA2SRB1

specific humidityprecipitation fluxair pressure at sealevelnet upward shortwaveflux in airair temperatureair temperature dailymaxair temperature dailymineastward windnorthward wind


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GCM BCC-CM1

– AgencyBeijing Climate Center, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, No.46, S.Road, Zhongguancun Str., Beijing 100081, China

BCCR

– Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Univ. of Bergen, Norway

CGCM3

– Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) CNRM-CM3

– Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Meteo France, France


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GCM CONS-ECHO-G

– Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn (Germany), Institute of KMA (Korea), and Model and Data Group.

CSIRO, Australia

INMCM3.0

– Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Science, Russia.

GFDL

– Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA NASA-GISS-AOM

– NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA/GISS), USA


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GCM MRI-CGCM2_3_2

– Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan

NCAR-PCM

– National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NSF (a primary sponsor), DOE (a primary sponsor), NASA, and NOAA

Model NIES-MIROC3_2-MED

– CCSR/NIES/FRCGC, Japan UKMO-HADCM3

– Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, United Kingdom


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Prediction of Global Warming Figure shows the distribution of warming during the late

21st century predicted by the HadCM3 climate model. The average warming predicted by this model is 3.0 °C.


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Predicted Changes of Temperature


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Temperature increase versus SRES


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Predicted Sea Level Rise


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Sea level rise versus SRES


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Regional Climate modeling An RCM is a tool to add small-scale detailed information

of future climate change to the large-scale projections of a GCM. RCMs are full climate models and as such are physically based and represent most or all of the processes, interactions and feedbacks between the climate system components that are represented in GCMs.

They take coarse resolution information from a GCM and then develop temporally and spatially fine-scale information consistent with this using their higher resolution representation of the climate system.

The typical resolution of an RCM is about 50 km in the horizontal and GCMs are typically 500~300 km


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RCM - more realistically simulation


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RCM can simulate cyclones and hurricanes


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Steps of assessing impact of climate change


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Climate change modeling in Bangladesh PRECIS regional

climate modeling is now running in Climate change study cell at IWFM,BUET.

It takes more than 2 months to completely run an experiment of 30 years.

Currently running baseline (1960-1990) and A1B (1949-2100) scenarios over the Bangladesh region.


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Bangladesh region for PRECIS Grids: 88 x 88

Predict up to 3 hourly

Needs more than 100 GB free space.

Intel Pentium take one day to simulate 6 month.

Uses LBC data from GCM (e.g. HadCM3)

Data available for A2, B2, A1B scenarios.


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Predicting Rainfall

[Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]


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Predicting Maximum Temperature



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Predicting Minimum Temperature



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Thank you

bangladesh university of engineering and technology climate change modeling: an overview climate...

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