Climate Modeling for the Asia-Pacific-- ClimateAP and its applications

Tongli Wang, PhD

Faculty of Forestry

University of British Columbia

Change in global temperature

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IPCC fifth report

Historical change in CO2 level and temperature

3Source: http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/paleo/400000yearslarge.gif

C02 emission scenarios

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Projected future climates (IPCC AR5)

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Forests and climate change

• Climate change mitigation• CO2 Sequestration

• Green materials – to reduce the use of CO2 emission intensive materials

• Adaptation to climate change• To serve as a sink not a source of CO2

6Carbon sink Carbon source

Effects of climate on forest trees

• Climate is a major environmental factor affecting the performance of trees (environmental effect)

• Climate is also the most important evolutionary force causing speciation and within-species variation (genetic effect) in plants

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Globally, forest types are associated with climate types

Regionally, each tree species is adapted to a range of climatic conditions - climatic niche

Climate also shapes among-population variation along climate gradients within a species

Species range of lodgepole pine

Climatic niche

Pro

du

ctiv

ity

Climate change causes mismatches between the climate that trees adapted and the climate that trees are going to experience

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Pro

du

ctiv

ity

Current Future

Some existing trees will move out their suitable climate habitat

Waste of natural resources

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Current climatic niche distribution

Future climatic niche distribution

Lagging edge population extirpation

Adaptation over generations using standing variation

and gene flow

Natural migrationfrom leading edge

Natural populationresponses

Clim

atic

gra

die

nt

warm

cold

Aitken et al. 2015

A framework for climate change adaptation in forestry

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• Climate data for the past and the future

Climate data

Impact assessment

Adaptation strategies

• Plant-climate relationships

• Projections on tree species ranges

• Climate-based forest resources management

• Knowledge transfer (web tools)

Challenges in getting climate data

• Not easy to access for specific locations

• Not at a desirable resolution

• Not at an expected accuracy

• Not having enough biological relevant climate variables

• Historical and future from different sources• Different resolutions and variables

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Climate Modeling – Climate APInterface Coverage

How does it work?

• 1. Data sources

• 2. Downscaling algorisms

• 3. Calculated and derived climate variables

• 4. Integrations and downscaling of historical and future climate data

• 5. A user-friendly interface

1. Data sources ClimateAP

• Baseline data (1961-1990 normals)

• PRISM data at 4km for China

• WorldClim (4km) for the rest

• Historical annual data

• CRU: 1901 – 201x

• Future projections

• GCM projections from IPCC AR5

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2. Downscaling of the baseline data

• A combination of • bilinear interpolation and

• Elevation adjustment

bilinear interpolation Elevation adjustment

Approaches for elevation adjustment

• Polynomial functions𝑦 = 𝑎 + 𝑏1𝑥1 + 𝑏2𝑥2 +⋯+ 𝑐1𝑥12 + 𝑐2𝑥22 +⋯

• Partial derivative functions based on PRISM data that incorporated topography and expert knowledge

• Dynamic local regression

elev

MAT

= – 0.0183 + 5.5910–4 Lat – 2.2910–6 Lat Long

)( PRISMsite

elev

MAT elevelev

Dynamic local elevational adjustment

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Calculate differences between each of the 36 unique pairs

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Improvements by ClimateAP

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Fujian pilot site

ClimateBC is critical for climatic mapping BEC zones

Observed Predicted

Source: Hamann & Wang. 2005. Models of climate normals for genecology and climate change studies in BC. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 128: 211-221

3. Calculated and derived climate variables

• Calculate climate variables• Temperatures: MAT, MWMT, MCMT, TD,

• Precipitation: MAP and MSP

• Dryness: AHM and SHM

• Radiation: MAR

• Derived climate variables• Degree-days: DD<0°C, DD>5°C, DD<18°C

and DD>18°C

• Frost: NFFD, FFP, bFFP, eFFP

• Dryness: Eref and CMD

• Snow: PAS

Weather stations

4. Integrations and downscaling of historical and future climate data

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GCM data for future climate

Resolution at 3.75 x 3.75°

30GCM data (CanESM2 RCP4.5 2050s)

Downscaling approach

Future climate data

GCM

Anomaly

Reference period 1961-1990

Replaced by ClimateAP

Interpolation

ClimateAP output

+

It facilitates predictions for management unit

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Current Future (2050s)

Climate

Ecosystems

UBC Research Forest

ClimateAP output is better than original GCM or RCM

Tmax07 of 2011

ClimateAP generates climate data for the past years (1901 – 2012)

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ClimateAP includes 19 GCMs and 41 CC scenarios for three future periods

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ClimateWNA has been Widely used for climate related studies

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0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Number of citations

Year

This will likely to be the future for ClimateAP!

ClimateWNA

Future development: adding future annual data to ClimateAP

• To reflect annual variability and extremes

• 2 scenarios, 3 GCMs and 90 years = 540 sets

• Programming to achieve fast access to the time series data

A framework for climate change adaptation in forestry

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• Climate data for the past and the future

Climate data

Impact assessment

Adaptation strategies

• Plant-climate relationships

• Projections on tree species ranges

• Climate-based forest resources management

• Knowledge transfer (web tools)

Conditions for ecological niche models

Modeling and projecting bioclimate envelopes for BC ecosystems and tree species

• The basis:• The relationship between the realized niche and climate

variables

• Assumption: • The realized niche is the result of local adaptation and

interactions with other species and organisms under recent/historical climatic conditions

• Major challenges• Model accuracy

• Uncertainty associated with uncertain future climates

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Predicting BC ecosystemClimate data Ecosystem classifications

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Improvement in model accuracy

• PCA

• Discriminant analysis

• Machine-learning methods• Neural network• Random Forest +• Optimizations

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Observed vs. predicted BC ecosystems

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BEC Zones (observed) BEC Zones (predicted)

A local application: predictions of Subzones

48Kamloops Timber Supply Area (at 90m)

Predicted (current)Mapped

We chose 20 scenarios to represent the range and distribution

Predicted changes in temp. and precip. for BC by 134 climate changes scenarios for 2050s 49

Projected ecological responses to six selected climate change scenarios for 2050s

A consensus projection for 2050s

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Consensus predictions among the 20 selected climate change scenarios

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Model-agreement among the projections based the 20 selected climate change scenarios

52(Wang et al. 2012)

Results adapted into forestry policy

Climate niche Models – Chinese fir

• Contraction is the substantial

• Expansion is limited

• Concerned!

Wang et al. 2016

Masson pine

Wang et al. 2016

Chinese pine

Wang et al. 2016

Blue gum

Wang et al. 2016

Google map based ClimateAP (http://climateap.net/ )

• Spatial visualization

• Data access

Web-based climate tools for APFNetOutput 6

This web tool makes the spatial visualization easy and simple, and delivers the output data to users’ figure tips through a web browser.

Future development: more species and ecosystems

• More species: 10 species• China: two larch (Larix gmelinii and L.

olgensis) species, Scots pine (Pinussylvestris), Yunnan Pine (Pinusyunnanensis), black locust (Robiniapseudoacacia), Chinese cork oak (Quercusvariabilis), aspen (Populus tremula), mosobamboo (Phyllostachys edulis)

• Chinese Taipei: Cyclobalanopsis longinux(syn. Quercus longinux), Lithocarpusmegalophyllus (?)

Available ecosystem classifications

Climatic modeling for ecosystems

Current

Future

Wang et al. 2012

CC Impacts differ among ecological zones

Sub-BorealSpruce zone

Interior Cedar-Hemlock zone

Current CGCM3 A2 2080s

Contraction

Expansion

62Wang et al. 2012

Associate tree species with ecosystems

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Douglas-fir

Associate Project

Future

Conclusions

• ClimateAP • uses of the best available climate data and improves them

• Adds a large number of climate variables

• Offers a n all-in-one package: historical, current and future

• User friendly interface

• It facilitates ecological modelling at both species level to study the trend and local management unit to develop adaptive management strategies

• Our climatic and ecological models are competitive and accessible at your figure tips.