climate information for mitigation and adaptation
DESCRIPTION
This presentation by Walther E. Baethgen asks and answers some of the most important questions concerning climate change: Adaptation to What? What Can We Expect? What Mitigation options are likely to succeed? Also it presents many interesting scenarios all related to climate change: for example how it would affect socioeconomics and vice versa.TRANSCRIPT
Walter E. Baethgen 2013
Walter E. BaethgenHead, Regional and Sectorial Research Program
IRI, The Earth Institute, Columbia University
Finding Synergies Between Adapting To Climate Change and Mitigation
Climate Information
for
Mitigation and Adaptation
Walter E. Baethgen 2013
Planning, Decision Making, Policy Making
Adaptation to What?What Can We Expect?
What Mitigation options are likely to succeed?
(REDD+, NAMAs, CDM)
Information on Future Climate
Walter E. Baethgen 2013
Future Climate Scenarios: Using Climate Models (GCMs)
Complex models that simulate physical processes in the atmosphere, oceans and land
Models are getting better
Walter E. Baethgen 2013
Climate Models: Simulating Past Observed ClimateExample: SE South America SONDJF
IPCC Model Range and Mean
Ano
mal
ies
(mm
/mon
th)
Walter E. Baethgen 2013
Observed
IPCC Model Range and Mean
Climate Models: Simulating Past Observed ClimateExample: SE South America SONDJF
Ano
mal
ies
(mm
/mon
th)
Walter E. Baethgen 2013
Future Climate Scenarios: Using Climate Models (GCMs)
2. Key Input:GHG Emissions
Assumptions:(e.g., in 2080-2100)
Technologies? Energy Sources? Deforestation rates?Population?
Uncertainties(IPCC Scenarios)
1. Great advances in science,but still lots to understand:Uncertainties due to Models
Walter E. Baethgen 2013
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
CO
2 p
pm
A1B
A1F
A2
B1
B2
CO2 atmospheric concentration for
different development options
Source: IPCC, 2001
Future Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios
In AR5: Radiative Forcing Values (similar assumptions)
Walter E. Baethgen 2013
Expected Global TemperatureFor Different Socioeconomic Scenarios
(Reference: 1986 – 2005)
Source: IPCC, 2013 (Draft) Uncertainty
Walter E. Baethgen 2013 Giannini et al., 2007
For Precipitation Uncertainties are Much Larger
This is for large “Windows”At Local level Uncertainties are much larger
East Africa
Individual Model Runs and Averages
Example in East Africa: 90% of the Climate Models agree it will become wetter
+25%
-10%
All scenarios have equal chances
Walter E. Baethgen 2013
However: Published articles with Crop Yield Projections
Uncertainty?
2020
2050
2080
Conclusion: Climate Change Scenarios are UncertainIPCC’s objective was not to create scenarios for impact assessment
PROBLEM:
This is easily understood
Can be “erroneously” believed
Maladaptation / “Malmitigation”
Percent change in Crop Yieldsfor one climate change scenario
Walter E. Baethgen 2013
Climate Change Scenarios and Decision Makers:
Decision Makers (including Policy Makers): Pressure to act on immediate to short-term problems
Scientific Community: Scenarios for 2080, 2100Great for Public Awareness, but CC is a problem of the FUTURE
CC scenarios: Uncertainty at regional / local level is large
Result:
CC is often not in the policy agendas, planning
Walter E. Baethgen 2013
Sahel: Annual Precipitation
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Rain
fall
(m
m)
Observed
We Need New Approaches:
1. Different Temporal Scales of Climate Variability
Annual Precipitation over the Sahel
Decadal Variability250mm in 20 years
“Climate Change”180mm in 100 years
Interannual Variability290mm from one year to next
55%
27%
18%Most of the world: 65% - 20% - 15% Int - Dec - CC
Walter E. Baethgen 2013
Initial ThoughtsScenarios based exclusively on Climate Models are uncertain (worse for precipitation, worse at regional, even worse at local)
Scenarios focusing only in “trends” (Climate Change) miss criticalInformation on Climate Variability that can affect Adaptationand Mitigation efforts (e.g., Interannual, Decadal Variability)
The majority of the total climate variability is found in the Interannual temporal scale (60-80%)
Walter E. Baethgen 2013
A Complementary Approach to “Traditional” Climate Change: Climate Risk Management
Future Climate: Work in “Near-term” Climate Change (i.e., 10-30 years)
-Establish a range of plausible future climate scenarios (with Decadal and Interannual)-Connect to Models: Crops, Carbon, Forestry (MITIGATION and ADAPTATION)-Identify interventions with highest chances of success
Some of the most damaging impacts of Climate Change are expected to be due to increased Climate Variability (droughts, floods, fires, storms)
Climate Change is a problem of the PRESENT (happening already)as opposed to a problem of the FUTURE
Start by improving adaptation to current climate variability
Mitigation options should be planned for the “long term”, but one large event (e.g., fire) may destroy all the efforts (i.e., consider interannual variability, climate risks)
Walter E. Baethgen 2013
Science-based Resources to Inform Policy
• Integrate Climate Information into Decision Support Systems, considering Uncertainties
Understandable and Actionable!
Final Comments
Climate Risk Management and Adaptation to Climate Change
•Improve Adaptation to Future Climate starting by Improving Adaptation to TODAY’S Climate•Adapt with flexibility: range of plausible climates interventions most likely to succeed
Climate Risk Management and Mitigation of Climate Change
•Mitigation efforts are also subject to Climate related Risks•Long-term Mitigation efforts can be hampered by short-term climate variability•Mitigate with flexibility: range of plausible climates interventions most likely to succeed
Walter E. Baethgen 2013
Thank you
Walter E. BaethgenHead, Regional and Sectorial Research Program
Leader, Latina America and Caribbean
IRI, The Earth Institute at Columbia University
Tel: (845) 680-4459
email: [email protected]: http://iri.columbia.edu/