achieving mitigation through adaptation: climate smart ... - a. mottet.pdf · achieving mitigation...

2nd December - FAO HQ (Rome)

GGAA conference :: Melbourne, Australia :: 15th February 2016

Achieving mitigation through adaptation:

climate smart livestock solutions in Southern Africa

Mottet, A., Teillard, F., Falcucci, A. & Gerber, P.

An FAO multi disciplinary project “Building the basis for scaling up Climate Smart Agriculture in Southern Africa”



In Southern Africa, demand for animal products will double between 2006 and 2050

•Need to increase production and/or imports

•Role of livestock in food security and nutrition, income and livelihood for millions of smallholders is growing

Annual meat consumption growth rateSource: FAOSTAT & FAO-OECD Agricultural Outlook



Source: ILRI

Density of poor livestock keepers• 45% of Zambian

population

malnourished

• 5.1 millions of poor

livestock keepers in

Zambia



Extreme droughtevents in the future

Source: IPCC, Special Report on Extreme Events, 2011

Consecutive dry days Low soil moisture

• Most exposed region: recurring

draughts affecting agricultural

yields and forage availability and

change in rainfall patterns

• Strong focus on adaptation, but

generally exclude livestock except

emergency types of response

(early warning systems and

disease control)

• Priority not given to livestock in

Zambia and Malawi despite high

potential



Questions

• What is the role of livestock in building resilience in Southern Africa? The example of Zambia

• Can interventions aiming to improve production and reduce variability also decrease GHG emissions?

• How can we support policy makers in addressing adaptation and mitigation issues through livestock?



Approach - (1) calculating feed baskets

Dry matterproductivity

BiomassAccessiblebiomass

Livestock requirements

Accessibleenergy

Satellite data

(DevCoCast)

Crop yields (GAEZ)

Land cover share

Usability/accessibility

(literature)

Energy content

(literature)

Grass

Residues

By-products

Feed basket Livestock distribution

Energy requirements (GLEAM)

Average feed basket (experts)Demand

Supply



Method– scenarios 2012-2030

ProductionCow milk, beef and goat meat

AdaptationTransmission of inter-annual variability from biomass to animal products

MitigationGHG emissions and emission intensity

Vegetation (supply)

2012-2030 scenarios

• Baseline

• Drought

Livestock (demand)

Improvement options

• Animal husbandry & health

• Feeding practices (improved grasslands

and replacement of part of the CR)



Approach – seasonality

Vegetation (supply)

• Crops: all grown in humid

season (except wheat)

• Grass: lower growth and

energy content in dry

season

Livestock (demand)

• By products: used in both

season

• Crop residues: only used in

the dry season

• Grass: lower requirements

in dry season (weight and

yield losses)



Approach – (2) impact on incomes

• Large-scale household panel data from the Zambian Rural Agriculture Livelihoods Survey (CSO, 2012). 2011/2012 cropping season, 8279 farms.

• No time series available : variability among districts

• Climatic variables to determine if 2011/2012 had been a dry year for the farms, compared with the previous 10 years: historical rainfall data from the Africa Rainfall Climatology version 2 (ARC2) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA-CPC).



Results - Production

• Sector growth: +24-30% production

compared to 2000-2011

• Improved practices: +57-80% in the

baseline scenario,

+49-71% in the drought scenario

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Liv

es

toc

k p

rod

uc

tio

n p

rox

y

2000-2011 Baseline Drought

scenario scenario

Practices

CurrentImproved

Practices

CurrentImproved

Meta

bo

lisab

le e

nerg

y i

n r

ati

on



Results - Adaptation0

.00

0.0

50

.10

0.1

50

.20

Inte

ran

nu

al v

ari

ab

ilit

y (

CV

)


scenario scenario0

.00

0.0

50

.10

0.1

50

.20

Inte

ran

nu

al v

ari

ab

ilty

(C

V)


scenario scenario

• Lower variability of livestock production compared to biomass availability,

especially in the drought scenario

• More reduction when including market stratification as improvement

Biomass production variability Livestock production variability



Results – Mitigation

• Emission intensities reduced through improvements options

• Absolute direct emissions increase due to sector’s growth and interventions reducing mortality

• When accounting for C sequestration in pastures through legume sowing and stocking rates

adjustments (Henderson et al, 2015), absolute emissions reduced by 25 to 31%

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

in

ten

sit

y

2000-2011 2012-2030

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

To

tal G

HG

em

iss

ion

s

2000-2011 2012-2030



Feed balance for residues and grass (dry season)

• Higher deficit

for crop residues

than for grass

• Higher distance

to cover to fill

deficit in crop

residues

Average distance to cover to fill deficit 31 km 8 km

Crop residues

Deficit/excess

Grass

Deficit/excess

Mean

Max.

Excess

Deficit



Livestock effect on income and its variability0.0

e+

00

5.0

e+

06

1.0

e+

07

1.5

e+

07

Gro

ss

in

co

me

Without livestock With livestock

Normal

Dryer than usual

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Va

ria

tio

n in

gro

ss

in

co

me

(C

V)

Without livestock With livestock

Normal

Dryer than usual

• Higher income in farms with livestock, including in dry years

• Lower income variation across farms, in farms with livestock



Methods and data caveats • Scare livestock technical performance data• Inexistent data on natural vegetation accessibility for animal feed• Partial knowledge on animal mobility• Scarce information on characterization of feed resources and their

quality• Inexact livestock numbers official statistics

Next steps:

• Work with newest income survey 2014-2015

• Integrate climate scenarios and their effects on natural biomass

productivity

• Upscale Zambian and Malawi case studies at regional level



Policy implications and conclusions•Improving feed digestibility: need extension and to address possible competition and improved availability of legume seeds (currently only velvet beans and lablab)

•Improving animal husbandry and animal health: need extension

•Improve grassland management: access to land and tenure systems. Limited investments needed but capacity development on grassland restoration, rotational grazing and grazing planning required.

•Livestock buffers variability in climate and available biomass, which results in more stable food production and income.

•Most climate research in Sub-Saharan Africa focuses on adaptation needs, but interventions in the livestock sector can also yield significant mitigation while contributing to increase productivity.

We cannot separate adaptation and mitigation



Thank you!

achieving mitigation through adaptation: climate smart ... - a. mottet.pdf · achieving mitigation...

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