Climate Futures for Climate Futures for Tasmania:Tasmania:

Prospects, Impacts and Prospects, Impacts and Information for Adaption Information for Adaption

OptionsOptionsNathan Bindoff et al.Nathan Bindoff et al.

ACE CRC, DPIW, Hydro ACE CRC, DPIW, Hydro Tasmania,SES,BoM, GA, TIAR, TPAC, Tasmania,SES,BoM, GA, TIAR, TPAC,

CSIRO MAR CSIRO MAR

Projections of Future Changes in Climate

Best estimate for low scenario (B1) is 1.8°C (likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C), and for high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C (likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C).

Broadly consistent with span quoted for SRES in TAR, but not directly comparable

Research activities

•Fine scale climate projections

•Modelling water flows and reservoirs

•Key climate variables

•Planning, agriculture,

•utility sectors and environment

•Extreme events

•Changes in occurrence

•Consequence of change

•Eg drought, flood, frosts, heat waves

Storms/winds

Research Modules

AWBM

Assumption: no change in land use

Assumption: no change in land use

Tasmania Water Catchment Models

Factor of 1.0 represents no change in inflows

Factors <1.0 represents drying

Factors >1.0 represents wetter

Great Lake factors well below 1.0 and thus drying predicted

Others have drier Summers/Autumns and wetter Winters

Example: Hydro Tasmania Inflow

Prediction

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Arthur's Lake

Great Lake

Trevallyn Dam

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.50.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.31.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lake Burbury

Lake Mackintosh

Lake Rowallan

Most important lake

Key Outputs Outputs/Products

General Climate Impacts Assessments of climate conditions through 2100 Mean trends in key variables Changes in climate variables (winds, heat waves, rainfall) Reports

General Agricultural Impacts Assessments of impacts of climate on key agricultural

sectors through 2100 Changes in frost and their impacts Crop models and disease models, and impacts of climate

change Strategies for adaptation (economic modeling) Reports to the wider community. Extreme Events

Key Outputs Outputs/Products

Extreme Events (on land, and on sea-level) Risk of winds on infrastructure (eg residential, commercial and

industrial) Assessments of storm surges and sea-level on extreme sea level

returns for Tasmania through 2100 Strategies for adaption Reports

Water and Water Catcements Assessments of impacts on water and water catchments through

2100 Hydro Tasmania, dam and reservoir capacity (and hence yields) DPIW and Hydro Tasmania stream flow and water availability SES, provide data for updating flood and flood inundation maps Strategies for adaption Reports

Perceived unfunded gaps Bushfires (Bushfire CRC/GA are interested)

Landslip and soils (depends on extreme rainfall)

Impacts and risks of heat waves, flooding on built assets

Risks for power generation

Risks for natural environment

Risks for forests

Risks for river and catchment chemistry

Economics aspects in this framework.

The Players

Key user questions

Research Activities

Downscaling and global signals Tasmanian context

Research outcome and outputs

Resources

Introduction

Key User Questions:Climate Change

•Water policy and legislation

•Water management and infrastructure

•Power Generation

•Reservoirs, winds

•Power Distribution (heat waves)

•Emergency planning

•Bushfires, floods

•Protection of high value assets

•From tourism

•Impacts on power and water

dependent industry

•Agriculture

•Crops, wine, other horticulture, disease

•Sea level surges

•(from wind changes)

The Players

Fine Scale Climate Projections

What is downscaling

•CCAM – Cubic Conformal Atmosphere

Model

• CSIRO MAR (John McGregor)

•Validation phase

•IPCC – models are used

•Interpolation of pre-existing IPCC

scenarios

Example from South West Australia

Factor of 1.0 represents no change in inflows

Factors <1.0 represents drying

Factors >1.0 represents wetter

Great Lake factors well below 1.0 and thus drying predicted

Others have drier Summers/Autumns and wetter Winters

Example: Hydro Tasmania Inflow

Prediction

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Arthur's Lake

Great Lake

Trevallyn Dam

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.50.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.31.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lake Burbury

Lake Mackintosh

Lake Rowallan

Most important lake

Resources 5 new postdoctoral fellows, 1 liason officer, project

management team

Engagement of skills and expertise from the consortia members, including Tasmanian State Departments and business enterprises

$8 million over three years (cash + inkind)

Data Management (TPAC Digital Library)

Potential Collaborations

CERF funded projects

Other initiatives (eg SEACI).

Climate models, and climate model credibility

Observations 1980-2000

Mean Model 1980-2000

Projections of Future Changes in Climate

Best estimate for low scenario (B1) is 1.8°C (likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C), and for high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C (likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C).

Broadly consistent with span quoted for SRES in TAR, but not directly comparable

• Precipitation increases are very likely in high latitudes in 2090-2099

• Decreases are likely in most subtropical land regions in 2090-2099

Figure SPM-6, TS-30, 10.9

Projections of Future Changes in

Climate

Tasmania

The most important spatial pattern (top) of the monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1900 to 2002.

The time series (below) accounts for most of the trend in PDSI.

Drought is increasing most places