climate futures for tasmania antarctic climate & ecosystems cooperative research centre...

Climate Futures for Tasmania

Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre

Prospects, Impacts and Information for Adaptation Options

Tas Sustainable Yields – 24 July 08Nathan Bindoff

ACE CRC Forum, 30 June 08 2

Our Starting Point

Climate change exists.

Greenhouse gas emissions a key driver.

Changes will have impacts.

Impacts are felt locally.


The Project

ACE CRC in consultation with others

Externally funded, consortium of funders

3-year project

Multiple climate projections to 2100, multiple models, multiple runs

Build on earlier work- Hydro Tasmania

Use CCAM with improvements

Longitude

Latit

ude

144°E 145°E 146°E 147°E 148°E 149°E44°S

43°S

42°S

41°S

40°S

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

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8

10

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

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0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Arthur's Lake

Great Lake

Trevallyn Dam

Great Lake

Trevallyn Dam


Special Elements

Highly collaborative project

Diverse focus – 4 areas of research

Strong communication and consultation element

Focus on stakeholders and end users needs

Modelling outputs freely available to everybody


Project Component Research Providers & Liaison Primary End Users GroupsStakeholders

1. Fine-scale climate projections ACE CRC, CSIRO, TPAC, BoM Research Components 2-4

2. Water and Catchments Hydro Tasmania, DPIW, ACE CRC Hydro Tasmania, Hobart Water, Esk Water, Cradle Coast Water, LGAT, Landscape Logic,

3. General Climate Impacts TIAR, DPIW, CSIRO, BoM, GA, ACE CRC TFGA, LGAT, Wine Industry Tasmania, Fruitgrowers Tasmania, Aurora Energy, Transend, Roaring 40s, SES, DPIW, DIER

4. Extreme Events SES, ACE CRC, CSIRO, BoM, GA SES, LGAT, Aurora Energy, Transend, Roaring 40s, DIER

Project Management Antarctic Climate & Ecosystem Cooperative Research Centre

Project Partners


Key Issues for End Users

Water policy and legislation

Water management and infrastructure

Power Generation (reservoirs, winds)

Power Distribution (heat waves)

Emergency planning (bushfires, floods)

Protection of high value assets (tourism)

Impacts on power and water dependent industry

Agriculture (crops, wine, other horticulture, disease)

Sea level surges (from wind changes)


Research Components

Fine Scale Climate

Projections


Project Resources

$7.5 million over three years (cash + in-kind)

5 new postdoctoral fellows, 1 liaison officer & project management team

Engagement of skills and expertise from the consortia members, including Tasmanian State Departments and business enterprises

Data Management (TPAC Digital Library)

Strong links with other projects CERF funded projects SEACI Tasmanian Sustainable Yields Project (TasSY)


Project Outcomes

Information for adaptation.

All modelling data and materials made publicly available.

Industries, government and community informed on likely future climate.

Capacity to plan appropriate, targeted, efficient adaptation strategies.

Understanding key risks and vulnerabilities.

Capacity to take maximum advantage of likely changes in climate.


Component Leaders

ModellingTony Hirst (CSIRO)Nathan Bindoff (TPAC)

Water and Catchments Bryce Graham (DPIW)Fiona Ling (Hydro Tasmania)

General Climate ImpactsDavid McNeill & Stephen Wilson (TIAR)Ian Barnes-Keoghan (BoM)

Extreme EventsBob Cechet (GA) Kathy McInnes (CSIRO)


Funding Partners

Funding Partners


Research Organisations

Research Organisations


Putting it all togetherFunders

(Funding Contracts)

DPIW – Michele Moseley Dept Primary Industries and

Water

Hydro Tasmania– Andrew Catchpole

SES – Chris Beattie

ACE CRC

CERF -Commonwealth Environment Research

Facilities (DEWH&A)

ACE CRCDr Kathy McInnes

CSIRO CMARDr Tony Hirst

Utas TPAC – Prof Nathan Bindoff

BoM– Ian Barnes- Keoghan

Utas TIAR Dr Stephen WilsonProf David McNeil

Hydro Tasmania– Kane Thornton

DPIW – Bryce Graham

Project Reference Group

End-User Representatives

“Virtual Network”

Partners’ Committee

Chair: Nathan BindoffResearch Organisations

(In-kind)

ACE CRC Board

Dr Katherine Woodthorpe (Chair)

End User Stakeholder Groups/End User Focus Groups

Determining User Needs and Road Testing end user products

CLIMATE FUTURESProject Leader: Prof Nathan Bindoff

Project Manager: Christie le GoyLiaison & Extension: Suzie Gaynor

General Climate Impacts

Fine Scale Climate Projections

Other research components

Water and Catchments

Hobart Water

Esk Water

Cradle Coast Water

Landscape Logic

Hydro Tasmania

Extreme Events

Wine Industry Tasmania

Fruit Growers Tasmania

Tasmania Farmers & Graziers Association

Dept Primary Industries & Water (DPIW)

LGAT

Aurora Energy

Transend

Roaring 40s

Dept Infrastructure, Energy & Resources

(DIER)

SES

Bruce Mapstone ACE CRC CEO

Geoscience Australia Dr Bob Cechet

Advisory Committee

Chair: Bruce Mapstone

Climate Futures for Tasmania

Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre

Prospects, Impacts and Information for Adaptation Options

Thank you


Full-time ACE CRC Staff

General Climate Impacts AnalystsGreg Holz (agriculture)Michael Grose

Extreme Events AnalystChris White

Modelling Analystto be appointed

Water and Catchments Analystto be appointed

Extension and LiaisonSuzie Gaynor


Project Management

GovernanceACE CRC CEO – Bruce MapstoneACE CRC Business Manager – Kate Maloney

ManagementProject Leader - Professor Nathan BindoffProject Management - Christie le Goy


Global Climate Models - windows into future(s)

GCMs are coarse scale

Community impacts often fine scale

CSIRO developed fine-scale method

This project provides fine scale information for Tasmania.

Modelling Concepts

Longitude

Latit

ude

144°E 145°E 146°E 147°E 148°E 149°E44°S

43°S

42°S

41°S

40°S

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

110°E 120°E 130°E 140°E 150°E 160°E50°S

45°S

40°S

35°S

30°S

25°S

20°S

15°S

10°S


Fine Scale Climate Projections

What is downscaling?

CCAM – Cubic Conformal Atmosphere Model

Validation phase

IPCC – models are used

Interpolation of pre-existing IPCC scenarios


Overlap with TasSY

• One scenario (of A2,A1B,B1), 6 models (three in first year), to 1960 to 2100, progressive to 2100. (Hydro project)

• Questions – Which scenario for TasSY (A2, A1B, B1)?– To 2030, or 2035?– Is 60km resolution sufficient for TasSY?– Time evolving?– How many models?


Compute resources

• Required resources (45days*24 cpu per 15km experiment, ~60 days*8cpu per 60km experiment)

• TPAC provides 128 processors, Disk 40 Terrabytes, Tape Silo (100Terrabytes) capacity ~50%

• Quote– 112 compute nodes, two tape drives, 100 Terrayte store,

$125k– 112 compute nodes, two tape drives, $100k – Three weeks for delivery after receipt of purchase order

• APAC, expansion will occur in November, “couldn’t purchase hours at the moment even if we could pay”


How to get alignment

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