Climate Forecast Applications Institutionalizing Climate Forecast Applications for Agriculture

Climate Forecast Applications InstitutionalizationSustained operational use of seasonal climate forecasts beyond the life of a project (Hansen, 2002)

Climate Forecast Applications Key componentsInstitutional commitment-Providing forecast information-support for climate forecast application-policies that favour beneficial useResearchers need to understand policy profile and influence the policy to some extentCooperation between institutions (lateral and vertical interactions)Continuous incorporation of new developments

Climate Forecast Applications Institutionalization process should start evolving during the course of the project itself when other pre-requisites are satisfied

Climate Forecast Applications Demonstration of climate forecast application: Pilot sites

Climate Forecast Applications Country wide disaster calendar:

IndonesiaPhilippinesVietnam Jan - Feb: Floods

May - Sep: Drought Nov - Mar: Drought

Jul - Aug: Typhoons Aug - Nov: Typhoons

Sep - Nov: Floods

Dec - May: Drought

Climate Forecast Applications Climate forecast application experiences:Indonesia: Set up the National Forecasting Working Group in 1997 composed of BMG (Meteorological and Geophysical Agency), BPPT (Bureau of Assessment and Application of Technology), LAPAN (National Space Center) , Agricultural Research Institute, and Water Resources Management Research InstituteThe Working Group draws upon forecast information from ASMC (ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Center), IRI (International Research Institute for Climate Prediction), BOM (Bureau of Meteorology Australia), and UKMO (UK Met Office)Prepares seasonal forecast guidance that includes seasonal monsoon onset, and monthly and seasonal cumulative rainfall for 102 climate forecasting regionsNational user agencies process the outlook with reference to past impacts, for dissemination to provincial sectoral agencies as general alertsFeedback from field user agencies to national agencies happens when a disaster occurs (Strong feedback to ensure subsidies)Information not usable to the level expected for development planning

Climate Forecast Applications Climate forecast application experiences:Philippines: First season ahead forecast issued in Jan 1985; ENSO indices incorporated in seasonal forecasts starting 1987 during 1986-87 El NioEstablished the Drought Early Warning and Monitoring System (now known as National ENSO Early Warning and Monitoring System) in 1987, which provided seasonal forecasts to policy and decision makers, economic planners and emergency managersUser departments analyze potential impacts and accordingly prepare contingency plansFor example, the Department of Agriculture, on receipt of advisory:analyzes potential impacts and prepares vulnerability map for the countrys 12 administrative regionsmodifies map using inputs from irrigation department, food security agency, and agriculture research institutions disseminates information to regional/ provincial agriculture officesNeed to develop capacities to process information that is usable at the local level

Climate Forecast Applications Climate forecast application experiences:Vietnam: Seasonal forecast based on Eurasian snow cover, ITCZ, etc. Incorporated ENSO information in seasonal forecast only in 2000Seasonal forecast disseminated to agriculture, water resources and disaster management agencies as general alertNeeded to make climate information usable for development planning

Climate Forecast Applications The need:Climate forecast information that:is localizedtimelyin easily understandable languagemeets end user needs

The issues:Capacity to generate the localized informationExperience in communicating probabilistic scientific information for practical use by end users

Climate Forecast Applications Climate forecast applications : ConsiderationsInstitutionalization of the end-to-end climate information generation and application system Demonstrates local application of climate informationProvides localized climate information that matches users needs

Climate Forecast Applications Methodology: Six step processAssess user needs and existing capacities of national institutions to meet these needs (need/ capacity assessments)Assess relevance of latest scientific information to meet these needs (assessment of available technology)Develop partnerships and enhance capacities of national institutions to generate information (capacity building through partnerships)Institutional development to communicate information to end users (institutionalization of end-to-end system: pilot demonstrations, replication)Apply informationMonitor and evaluate applicability of information

Climate Forecast Applications End-to-end climate information generation and application system

Climate Forecast Applications Activities:Climate outlook: Create a database on climate, ENSO impacts, new forecast toolsDevelop climate scenario with ENSO indicesGenerate downscaled climate information products Develop seasonal climate outlookTranslation into impact outlook: Create an agro-climate databaseDevelop climate impact scenarios on critical stages of the crop cycle and impact of pests and diseases on crop productionDevelop seasonal climate impact outlook

Climate Forecast Applications Activities:Application: Develop institutional and project partnershipsSelect demonstration sitesAnalyze socio-economic / sectoral impacts of climate variabilityAnalyze institutional landscapeAnalyze policy-decision system interactionInclude downscaled climate information into current policy, decision systemEvaluate performance of new decision systemFormulate policy changes for climate information utilizationUptake policy and decision toolsReplication

Climate Forecast Applications Institutional mechanism: IndonesiaProvision of climate outlookBMGIPBTranslation of climate outlook into impact outlookIndramayu Agriculture OfficeConversion of impact outlook into crop management strategiesDissemination of information to farmers and evaluation of farmers responseDirectorate of Plant Protection

Climate Forecast Applications Institutional mechanism: Philippines

GLOBAL CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERSSea Surface Temperature AnomaliesRainfall AnomaliesTemperature Anomalies

CAB/PAGASA/DOSTAnalysis / Downscaling techniques / Impact assessment procedures / Forum Discussion Tailored Local Climate Forecasts / Advisories (Iloilo)

CLIMATE PATTERNS TRENDSNear-real-time Data

HISTORICAL DATA AND INFORMATIONEpisodic Events Documents

Dumangas Agromet Station

TWG CLIMATE FORUMProvl Agricultural Officer Municipal Agricultural OfficersNIA Region VI Dumangas Agromet Station OfficerFarmers Reps. Local Irrigation System Office IMPACTS / DECISION OUTLOOKS / ADVISORIES

FARMERS

Translation of Global Climate Forecasts into Impacts / Decision Outlooks and Advisories for the End-User Farmers of Dumangas and Tigbauan, Iloilo

Climate Forecast Applications Institutional mechanism: VietnamASMCIRIRCFCNCHMF (HMS)CRC (IMH)ARC (IMH)Agriculture Extension (MARD)QT Climate Information Application GroupQT HMACDistrictDistrictDistrictCommunesCommunesCommunesFarmersFarmersFarmersProvincial level Hydromet / Agricultural Extension Service

Climate Forecast Applications Partnerships with international, national, local institutions:Bureau of Meteorology and GeophysicsDirectorate of Crop Protection, Ministry of AgricultureBogor Agricultural UniversityCentral Bureau of StatisticsBULOG (National food logistics agency)Ministry of Regional InfrastructureBAKORNAS BPB(National coordinating agency for disaster management)CARE International in IndonesiaBPTP(Agency for the Assessment and Application of Agriculture TechnologyAgriculture and Rural Development BankProvincial governments: West Java and Nusa Tenggara TimurOffice of the Bupati, Indramayu Regency, West JavaFarmers groupsInternational Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI)Indonesia

Climate Forecast Applications Partnerships with international, national, local institutions cont.:PAGASA(Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services AdministrationDepartment of AgricultureBureau of Agricultural StatisticsNational Irrigation AdministrationNational Water Resources BoardNational Disaster Coordinating CouncilDumangas Municipal GovernmentLocal NGOsFarmers groupsNational Power CorporationInstitute of Meteorology and HydrologyHydrometeorological Service, VietnamAgrometeorological Research CenterClimate Research CenterMinistry of Agriculture and Rural DevelopmentQuang Tri Department of Science and EnvironmentVietnamPhilippine

Climate Forecast Applications Forums for climate information providers and users:National: Seasonal climate forum (national meteorological and hydrological service (NMHS), intermediate users - e.g. agriculture and water resources ministries)Inter- (user) agency committees (NMHS, agriculture and water resources ministries, water regulatory board, dam operators, water concessionaires, hydropower agency) Sub-national: Provincial working group (provincial meteorological and hydrological station, agriculture and irrigation departments, universities, local government units, NGOs)Local: Local climate forum (local meteorological and hydrological station, agriculture and irrigation departments, local government unit, local NGOs, farmers groups)Field schools (provincial and local meteorological and hydrological station, agriculture extension, farmers)

F A R M E R SFarmer GroupsP1-1P1-2P1-2P1-2F A R M E R SFarmer GroupsP1-1P1-1P1-2P1-2P1-2P1-2P1-2P1-2P1-2P1-2P1-2Stage 1: training of agricultural extension specialists (district level)Stage 2: training of agricultural extension workers (sub-district)Stage 3: training of heads of farmers groupsStage 4: training of farmersClimate field schools:Climate Forecast Applications Indonesia (Local level)

Climate Forecast Applications Delivery of locally-relevant climate information: IndonesiaIndramayu District, West Java, IndonesiaStep 1 : Revised climate forecast regions

Climate Forecast Applications Step 2: Preparation of forecast mapsIndramayu District, West Java, IndonesiaOnset of dry season 2003Dry season rainfall, 2003

Climate Forecast Applications Step 3: Preparation of forecast response planIndramayu District, West Java, IndonesiaImpact outlookFarmers response plan

Climate Forecast Applications Climate forecast application: Philippine experience - 2002-03Aug 2002: PAGASA issued the climate outlook for dry season Nov 2002 - Mar 2003, which forecasted rains below normal levelBased on this outlook, provincial agriculture office (PAO) prepared the impact outlook - tail-enders will not receive sufficient water for rice cropPAO prepared response plan advising farmers to change cropsMost farmers followed the advice and changed their cropThe experience demonstrated the economic value of climate informationThe experience convinced end users, local institutions of utility of climate information

Climate Forecast Applications Climate forecast application: milestonesIndonesia: BMG now releases forecasts that are relevant to the lead-time requirements of end usersBMG have refined the seasonal forecast for Indramayu by establishing 6 forecast regions in place of existing 2 regionsOwnership (district head has incorporated CFA as priority activity of district development plan)Counterpart funding (US$ 20,000) from BMG to support activity in IndramayuNational Government plan to streamline IPM field school programme with climate field school

Climate Forecast Applications Climate forecast application: milestonesPhilippines: Use of dry season 2002-2003 forecast was used by provincial agriculture office for the first time in preparing impact outlook and advised farmers to change cropsProvincial agriculture office proposed to establish a large number of local rainfall monitoring stationsDumangas municipality established local agromet stationLocal ordinance provides municipal funds to support climate forecast application on a continuous basis

Climate Forecast Applications Climate forecast Institutionalization: prerequisitesLocal level demonstration of providing locally relevant climate information on a sustained basisInvolvement of local institutions, with financial/ budgetary commitmentLocal institutions advocate for national policyNational policy replicates the programCapacity building of intermediary institutions to translate and communicate forecasts