climate change and extreme weather events climate forecast applications for disaster mitigation in...
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Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events
Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation in Southeast Asia
S.H.M. Fakhruddin
Senior Technical Specialist, Climate Risk Management Division
Discussion Topics
• Extreme Climate Events Program
• Climate Forecast Application (CFA)
for Disaster Mitigation in Philippines
and Indonesia
• Climate Forecast Application in
Bangladesh (CFAB) for Flood Risk
Management
CFA Program Overview
• Trigger: Developed in response to the severe impacts Niño 1997 98• Period:
– 1998-2003:Extreme Climate Events Program (documentation of impacts, analysis of institutional responses, identification of opportunities for forecast applications)
– 2003-2008: Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation Program (tools development, capacity building, demonstration projects)
• Geographical coverage: Indonesia & Philippines (2003-2008) and Timor-Leste (2007-2009)
• Supported by: Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance of the United States Agency for International Development (OFDA-USAID)
• ADPC works with local, national, and international partners
CFA Demonstration SitesCFA Demonstration SitesAngatAngat
Nusa Tenggara Timur
IndramayuIndramayu
Dumangas, Iloilo
Indonesia 93% of drought years in Indonesia are linked to El Niño years
Severe drought reduced rice yields, requiring to import 5.1 million tonnes of rice
Economic crisis devalued rupiah by about 80%, pushing up price of imported rice to four times pre-crisis levels
Forest fires - out of control in Sumatra and Kalimantan
Philippines El Niño and peso depreciation collide and magnify impacts
60% depreciation of peso
Per capita GNP declined by 2.7%
Agriculture contracted by 7% and industry by 1.7%
Food and basic commodity prices increased rapidly
Socio-economic Impacts of ENSO 1997-98 in Indonesia & Philippines
El Niño impacts on rice production in the Philippines
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
Year
Pal
ay P
rod
uct
ion
( x
100
0 M
T)
El Nino
El Nino
El Nino
El Nino
Year Area Impacted (Ha) % of Total1988 92,488 1.191989 38,259 0.491990 63,646 0.821991 1,060,344 13.591992 49,676 0.641993 91,407 1.171994 705,566 9.051995 33,194 0.431996 72,042 0.921997 592,488 7.601998 216,145 2.771999 52,253 0.672000 55,638 0.712001 71,368 0.912002 176964 2.27
El Niño onset yearsEl Niño onset years
Impacts El Niño on paddy production in Indonesia
Impacted = lost over 25% of yield relative to average yield
Countries needed timely, usable climate information to manage resources effectively & reduce disaster risks. However, localized & usable climate information was not available to resource managers
Reasons why climate information was not available
• Absence of participatory mechanism for identifying user forecast requirements
• Available climate information not tailored to users’ needs and requirements
• Weak forecast producer-user communication channel
• Users have difficulty understanding forecast language
• Community-level dissemination is weak
• Users have no mechanism for processing climate information once it is received
• Feedback channel from forecast user to producer is weak or nonexistent in most cases
These are the gaps the CFA program aims to address
Need/ capacity assessments
Assessment of available technology
Capacity building through partnerships
Institutionalization of end-to-end system: pilot
demonstrations, replication
Apply information to enable pro-active decision making
Monitor and evaluate applicability of information
CFA Methodology:
Six step process
Focused Intervention:
Global climate
information providers
National institutions
End-users
End-to-end climate information generation and application system
Providing climate outlook
Interpreting global climate outlook into local outlook
Translating local climate outlook into impact scenarios
Communication of response options/ feedback
Major Achievements of CFAMajor Achievements of CFA
Indonesia & Philippines
The CFA program is instrumental in establishinginstitutional mechanisms that connect hydro-meteorological
communities, risk management institutions, & societies.
Farmers in Liquiça district learning basic rainfall observation at the Climate Field School for Farmers.
BMG
IPB
Universities
Agriculture Office at District Level
Marine and Fishery
Forestry
Health
TourismAviation - Maritime
Directorate of Plant ProtectionDept. of Agriculture
Related institutions
BMG
Translation of Climate Outlook Scientific Language Operational Language
(“Below Normal”) = (Lack of water)
Provision of Climate OutlookIn “meteorological language”
Conversion of Operational Language into e.g. Crop Management Strategies
Dissemination of Information to Farmers and evaluation of Farmers
Response
Change Crop Pattern ! Change Planting Time ! Change Crop Variety !
Institutional mechanism: Indonesia
Directorate of Plant Protection
IPB
Provision of climate outlook
BMG
Translation of climate outlook into
impact outlook
Indramayu Agriculture Office
Conversion of impact outlook into crop management
strategies
Dissemination of information to farmers and evaluation of
farmers response
SUB BAGIAN TATA USAHA
Drs. Agung Wradsongk o, MP
SUBDIT ANALI SIS & MITIGAS
I DAMPAK IKLIM
Ir. Jatmiko
SUBDIT PENGELO LAAN PHT
Ir. Sarsito WGS,MM
SEKSI KELEMBAGAAN
Ir. B. IndriastutiK
SEKSI PEMASYARAKATAN
Ir. Dyah Mutiawari
SUBDIT PENGE NDALIAN OPT
Ir. Hari Utomo
SEKSI OPT SEREALIA Drs. Ruswandi
, MM
SEKSI OPT KAC- ANG 2AN DAN
-UMBI 2AN Ir. Ety Purwan
ti
KELOMPOK JABATAN FUNGSIONAL
BALAI PENGUJI M UTU PRODUK TAN
AMAN Ir. Yayah Roliyah,
M Si
SEKSI ANALISIIKLIM
Ir. Irwan Kamal
SEKSI MITIGAS I DAMPAK IKLI
M Ir. Endang Titi
P. MM
DIREKTUR PERLINDUNGAN
TANAMANIr. Ati Wasiati
SEKSI PELAYANAN
TEKNIKDrs. Oscar Rulli
SEKSI PENGELOLAAN
SAMPLEDra. Tantri Indrianti
SUB BAGAIN TATA USAHA
Suparjo
SUB DIT PENGELOLAHA
N DATA OPTIr. Fatra Widjaya,
M Si
SEKSI INFORMASI &
DOKUMENTASIIr. Yarmiati
Munaf
SEKSI MONITORING
Drs. Tigor Sagala
*Subdivision on Climate Analysis
and Mitigation
Institutional innovation at Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture
Institutional mechanism: Philippines
GLOBAL CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS
Sea Surface Temperature AnomaliesRainfall Anomalies
Temperature Anomalies
CAB/ PAGASA/ DOST
Analysis / Downscaling techniques / Impact assessment procedures /
Forum Discussion
Tailored Local Climate Forecasts / Advisories (I loilo)
CLIMATE PATTERNS TRENDS
Near-real-time Data
HISTORICAL DATA AND INFORMATION
Episodic Events Documents
Dumangas Agromet Station
TWG CLIMATE FORUM
Prov’l Agricultural Officer Municipal Agricultural Officers
NIA Region VI Dumangas Agromet Station Officer
Farmers Reps. Local Irrigation System Office
IMPACTS / DECISION OUTLOOKS / ADVISORIES
FARMERS
Translation of Global Climate Forecasts into Impacts / Decision Translation of Global Climate Forecasts into Impacts / Decision Outlooks Outlooks and Advisories for the Endand Advisories for the End--User Farmers of Dumangas and Tigbauan, IloiloUser Farmers of Dumangas and Tigbauan, Iloilo
8” Standard rain gauge
Tipping bucket rain gauge
Automatic Weather Station raingauge
A pool of meteorologists has been formed & trained to provide tailored climate information for risk management in program countries. Through their interactions with institutions & communities under the Program, they understand that meteorologists should not just produce information but have to relate the information to the user context.
BMG
Kel-1 : bag sel Haurgelis/ Gabuswetan/
Bangodua
Kel-2 : bag.utara Indramayu
Kel-3 : bag.utara Anjatan/Sukra
Kel-4 : Krangkeng /Karangampel
Juntinyuat/ Sliyeg/Kertasemaya/
Jatibarang/Widasari/Sindang/
Lohbener/ bag.Utara Bangodua
Kel-5 : Kandanghaur/Bongas/bag.utara
Gabuswetan/bag.timur
Anjatan/Lohsarang
Kel-6 : Cikedung /bag.sel.Gabuswetan
/bag.utara Haurgelis/ Lelea
Climate ForecastsUpdated every month:
day 2125
Forecast delivery:day 2630
Collection of daily dataFrom day 20 (M-1)
day 20
Dumangas Climate Field School
A farmer shows his
revisedcroppingcalendar
Institutional and community-level dissemination channels indemonstration sites have been strengthened. Community capacity to use climate information have been built primarily through Climate Field Schools, climate forum, & community-level workshops
Indramayu Climate Field SchoolWomen farmers participating inthe Climate Field Schoolwork with extensionworkers in understanding rainfall graphs
Farmers in Losarang subdistrict Indramayushowing rainfallgraphs
Farmers in Losarang subdistrict Indramayushowing rainfallgraphs
F A R M E R S
Farmer Groups
P1-1
P1-2P1-2 P1-2
F A R M E R S
Farmer Groups
P1-1P1-1
P1-2P1-2 P1-2P1-2P1-2 P1-2P1-2P1-2 P1-2
Stage 1: training of agricultural extension specialists (district level)
Stage 2: training of agricultural extension workers (sub-district)
Stage 3: training of heads of farmers groups
Stage 4: dialogue with farmers
Climate field school: implementation process
Instrument areaStation building
Forecast applications for disaster mitigation isnow internalized and owned by local governmentsinvolved in the program
Municipal legislation assures local government support to the operations & maintenance of Dumangas Agro-Met Station
Raingauges in Indramayu Regency
Implementation experience:Indramayu, West Java, Indonesia, Dry season 2006-2007
WMO El Niño advisory, 2006
Preparing program for supporting the action plans and socialization
20072006Translation
Communication FlowCommunication Flow
BMG
Jun
e/July
A
ug
ust
S
ept/O
ct
Octo
ber
1st1st 2nd2nd
Janu
ary
F
ebru
ary
Mar/A
pr
A
pril
Dumangas community-based flood early warningsystem
The CFA program has been instrumental in demonstrating that use of weather & climate information can save lives and produce tangible economic benefits
El Nino 2002-2003El Nino 2002-2003As reported by the Iloilo Provincial
Agriculturist, due to early dissemination of the El Niño forecast, farmers in the province were able to mitigate its adverse impacts by switching to alternative crops (e.g. rice to watermelon)
El Niño damage - 64.00 M
Production of other
crops - 732.02 M
Difference Php 688.02 M
Key coping strategy: crop Key coping strategy: crop substitution substitution
Climate Forecast Climate Forecast Application in BangladeshApplication in Bangladesh
Objectives
Project Objective 1: Flood Forecast technology tested and Forecast technology tested and transferredtransferred, and capacities developed to operationalise:
A. 1-10 days forecastsB. 20-25 days forecastsC. 3-6 months forecasts
Project Objective 2: Application of flood information through pilot projects at selected sites, showing measurable improvements.
Project Objective 3: Flash flood forecast technology developed and tested on experimentalon experimental basis for North East Bangladesh
Implementation Plan
2006 2007 2008 2009
Pilot Testing the model, validation
& capacity building
Technology Transferred to
FFWC, physical supports, capacity
building
Refinement, validation, advisory support & bridging
Pilot Testing the model, validation
& capacity building
2000-2005 Model Development and Experimental Forecasts
Supported by USAID OFDA, ADPC
Supported by USAID through CARE Bangladesh
Institutional Collaboration For Sustainable End-to-end Flood Forecasts System
BMD
Climate (rainfall and discharge) forecasting technology
(EAS)/ADPC
Agro met translation
FFWC Discharge translation
IWM
DMB, DAE
Interpretation
Communication
End users
ADPC, CARE ,CEGIS ADPC
ADPC, CARE,CEGIS ADPC
Climate forecast ADPC GCEGI
S //GECIS
G
CFAB Model Area
Bahadurabad
Hardinge Bridge
Discharge Forecast Schemes
ECMWF Operational ensemble forecast
NOAA and NASA (i.e.CMORPH and GPCP)
satellite precipitation & GTS rain gauge data
Hydrologic model parameters
Discharge data
Downscaling of forecastsStatistical correction
Hydrological Model
• Lumped• Distributed• Multi-Model
Discharge Forecasting
• Accounting for uncertainties
• Final error correction
• Generation of discharge forecast PDF
• Critical level probability forecast
(I). Initial Data Input
(II). Statistical Rendering
(III). Hydrological Modeling
(IV). Generation of Probabilistic Q
(V). Forecast Product
Brahmaputra Discharge Forecasts 20081-10 day flood forecasts using ECMWF precipitation forecasts
Brahmaputra Discharge Forecasts 20071-10 day flood forecasts using ECMWF precipitation forecasts
2007 Brahmaputra Ensemble Forecasts and
Danger Level Probabilities
7-10 day Ensemble Forecasts 7-10 day Danger Levels
7 day 8 day
9 day 10 day
7 day 8 day
9 day 10 day
Plumes and probability pies for the first Brahmaputra flood July 28-August 6, 2007
High probabilities of exceedance of the danger level by the Brahmaputra at the India-Bangladesh border
Plumes and probability pies for the second Brahmaputra flood September 8-16, 2007
For the second flooding, short-term forecasting, successful in providing high probabilities of exceedance of the danger level by the Brahmaputra
1-10 Days Forecasts at Bahadurabad 2009
1-10 Days Forecasts in the FFWC Website
http://www.ffwc.gov.bd/http://www.ffwc.gov.bd/
Forecast updates from 72 hrs to 10 days
Traditional 3 days forecasts Forecast extended to 10 days
20-25 days and Seasonal Forecasts
• 20-25 days and Seasonal Forecast still in experiment. Not shared to public
Pilot AreasPilot
Areas
Target groups Decisions Forecast lead time requirement
Farmers Early harvesting of B.Aman, delayed planting of T.Aman 10 days
Crop systems selection, area of T. Aman and subsequent crops
Seasonal
Selling cattle, goats and poultry (extreme) Seasonal
Household Storage of dry food, safe drinking water, food grains, fire wood
10 days
Collecting vegetables, banana 1 week
With draw money from micro-financing institutions 1 week
Fisherman Protecting fishing nets 1 week
Harvesting fresh water fish from small ponds 10 days
DMCs Planning evacuation routs and boats 20 – 25 days
Arrangements for women and children 20 – 25 days
Distribution of water purification tablets 1 week
Char households Storage of dry food, drinking water, deciding on temporary accommodation
1 week
Flood risk management at community level decisions and forecast lead time requirement (Eg. Rajpur Union,
Lalmunirhat district)
USER MATRIX on Disasters, Impacts and Management Plan for Crop, Livestock and Fisheries sector
Disasters Crop Stages Season/month
Impacts Time of flood forecast
Alternative management plans
Early flood T.Aman Seedling andVegetative stage
Kharif IIJun – Jul
Damage seedlingsDamage early planted T.AmanDelay plantingSoil erosion
Early June
Delayed seedling raising,Gapfilling, skipping early fertilizer application
T.Aus Harvesting
Kharif IJun – Jul
Damage to the matured crop
Early June
Advance harvest
Jute Near maturity
June-July Yield lossPoor quality
May end Early harvest
S.Vegetables
Harvesting
June-July Damage yield lossPoor quality
Mar - Apr
Pot culture (homestead)Use resistant variety
High flood T. Aman Tillering Kharif - IIJuly-Aug
Total crop damage Early June
Late varietiesDirect seedingLate planting
Late flood T. Aman Booting Kharif IIAug-Sep
Yield loss and crop damage
Early July
Use of late varietiesDirect seedingEarly winter vegetablesMustard or pulses
Flood (early, high and late)
Cattle - Jun-Sep Crisis of food and shelter. Diseases like cholera, worm infestation
Early June
Food storage, flood shelter, vaccination de-warming
Flood Nursery table fishBrood fish
- June to Aug
Inundation of fish farmsDamage to the pond embankmentsInfestation of diseasesLoss of standing crops
Apr - May
Pre-flood harvesting,Net fencing/bana,Fingerlings stocked in flood free pond, High stock density
Risk Communication of flood forecasts 2007- 2008
54
Sending SMS to Mobile
Risk Communication for Flood Forecasts 2007-2008
Mobile phone
Flag hoisting
Institutional and community responses on 2007 flood forecast: ADPC Field Team
Flood forecast issued for two
boundary locations
Incorporated into customized local model
21 Jul
22 Jul
23 Jul
Communication to project partners
24 Jul
Communication to stakeholders and local DMC members
25 Jul
Communication to Disaster Emergency Group
26 Jul
Discussion of options with local communities, CBOs, local working group members,
networks
30 Jul
2 Aug
Information to relief agencies about the extent of flooding
Local institutions prepared response and relief plans
Community in low lands reserved their food, drinking water, fodder requirements
Local Disaster Management Committee and Volunteers prepared for rescue
Aid agencies arranged logistics and begin dialogue with district administration
Low lying areas are flooded on 29th July
Relief distribution started in affected locations
Flood water exceeded danger level on 28th July
Institutional and community responses on 2008 flood forecast- Report from ADPC field Team
Flood forecast issued for two
boundary locations
Incorporated into customized local model
27 Aug 28 Aug
29 Aug
Communication to project partners
30 Aug
Communication to stakeholders and local DMC members
Communication to Disaster Emergency Group, DAE, etc
31 Aug
04 Sep 10 Sep
The flood water likely increase
Low lying areas are flooded
Flood level could further recede and come down below danger level likely
Flood water exceeded damaging level on 1 Sep
Field team visit and observe the local
situation
Community responses to flood forecasts
Community responses to flood forecasts
Economic Beneifits
• In 2008 Flood, Economic Benefits on average per household at pilot areas– Livestock's = TK. 33,000 per
household – HH assets = TK. 18,500 per
household – Agriculture = TK 12,500 per
household– Fisheries = TK. 8,800 per
households
• Experiment showed that every USD 1 invested, a return of USD 40.85 in benefits over a ten-year period may be realized (WB).
Average Amount of Saving per Household
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000
Save agriculture
Save HH assets
Save Livestock
Save Fishereis
Amount (TK.)
Improvement Due to Long Lead Forecasts System
• FFWC able to increase the lead time from 72 hrs to 10 days
• This model performs consistently well and correctly predicted 2007 and
2008 floods
• The flood forecasts provides onset of flood, duration and dates of receding
of floods
• 1-10 days long lead forecasts provides enough lead time to interpret,
translate forecast information to users through established communication
channels
• The pilot testing of this long lead forecast information at high risk location
revels tangible benefits to the at risk communities
Key Lessons Learned: 2007- 2008 Flood
• 10-days forecast system availability is crucial for live and livelihoods preparedness and local agency response.
• Response to forecasts in low lying areas related to saving lives and small household assets (dry food, drinking water, fire wood, animal fodder, barrowing credit from micro-financing institutions)
• Response to flood forecasts in high lands are mostly related to preparedness activities like reserving seedlings for double planting, protecting fisheries, early harvesting, abandoning early planting, protecting livestock and preserving fodder
• Local institutions during 2007-08 in pilot unions are well informed and prepared for floods in advance
• The probabilistic nature of 1-10 days forecasts need to be communicated to the users at all level by innovative risk communication tools
• Capacity to interpret, translate and communicate probabilistic forecast information with impact outlooks with response options at various levels are crucial
• Long Lead forecasts are one of the best tools to enhance our adaptation to climate change associated risks at present and in future
• Agency level preparedness SoPs based on probabilistic forecast needs to be developed for livelihoods risk reduction
Key Lessons Learned: 2007- 2008 Flood
Flash Flood Forecasting
• Provided experimental 3 days rainfall forecasting for the NE region of Bangladesh in2008 and 2009. The model is integrated with a horizontal resolution of 9 KM X 9KM. The forecasted information showed good result since 2008
• Meso-scale rainfall forecast models effectively linked to the existing discharge forecast capability of the FFWC
THANK YOU