Climate Conundrum and the way ahead for India

“Climate change has not just been part of human history but has also shaped it decisively.”

With the global climate deliberations entering a new and nearly decisive phase and the world’s

top carbon emitters, the US and China, reaching surprise deals on controlling climate, a believer

may feel that the world is finally on the verge of solving the climate riddle. Alas, nothing can be

farther from the truth, as the Climate Conundrum continues to deepen with newer and starker

debates staring in the face of countries of the world, with India feeling the worst heat.

Global Logjam – How the story unfolded

Over the past six decades there has been a growing concern about global warming, being voiced at International forum. The subsequent political debates have centered on the idea that our atmosphere is sensitive to changes and that changes produced by humanity have caused global warming and the consequent climate change of the worst form. There is a widespread consensus that a build-up of greenhouse gases has caused global temperatures to rise thereby raising the probability of weather-linked events. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), a treaty that was negotiated into existence at the Earth Summit in Rio in 1992 with the explicit aim of having signatory countries work towards stabilising their emissions of greenhouse gases or keeping them within certain specified limits. A few years later in 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was ratified by 55 countries with 83 signatories, and came into force in 2005 and aimed at enforcing policy to ask specific states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Kyoto Protocol was more binding on advanced countries, included in Annex 1, because historical logic suggested that these countries were more responsible for the current global warming, having industrialised at a time when there was lesser understanding of the impact of rampant industrialisation. These countries, took binding emission cuts and accounted for two-thirds of emissions worldwide. The first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol lasted from 2008-2012 and was renewed for a second time for 2012 only to lapse in December of that year. A second commitment period was started in January 2013 and this will end in December 2020.

WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE?

Climate change refers to any substantial change in measures of climate (such as temperature or precipitation) lasting for an extended period (decades or longer). Climate change may result from natural factors and processes or from human activities.

Global warming is a term often used interchangeably with the term “climate change,” but they are not entirely the same thing. Global warming refers to an average increase in the temperature of the atmosphere near the Earth’s surface. Global warming is just one aspect of global climate change, though a very important one.

However the second commitment was agreed to on the condition that a new Protocol will be devised by 2015 that will impose legally binding emission limits on all countries including countries in the middle of economic transitions to market economies, like China and India.

LOCKING HORNS IN THE RUN-UP TO THE GLOBAL CLIMATE DEAL

The climate talks took a purposive turn with the world leaders meeting at Lima, in early

December, for the annual Conference of Parties (COP) summit, in the backdrop of the most

important assessment of global warming yet published, IPCC Asssessment Report-5. The report

proposes that Climate Change is set to inflict “severe, widespread, and irreversible impacts” on

people and the natural world unless carbon emissions are cut sharply and rapidly. The report

comes at a critical time for international action on climate change, with the deadline for a global

deal just over a year away.

The top three

China, the United States and the European Union remain the top three emitters of carbon dioxide, accounting for 29 per cent, 15 per cent and 11 per cent, respectively, of the world’s total.

After years of a steady decline, the emissions of the gas by the U.S. grew by 2.5 per cent in 2013, mainly due to a shift in power production from gas back to coal and an increase in gas consumption for space heating.

In the European Union, emissions continued to fall — by 1.4 per cent in 2013. The much lower increase in emissions in China — 4.2 per cent in 2013 and 3.4 per

cent in 2012 — was primarily due to a decline in electricity and fuel demand from the basic materials industry, and aided by an increase in renewable energy and improvements in energy efficiency.

With the present annual growth rate, China has returned to the lower annual growth rates that it experienced before its economic growth started to accelerate in 2003, when its annual carbon dioxide emissions increased on average by 12 per cent a year.

But the proceeding at Lima, to negotiate a draft text on a climate deal to be agreed in Paris next

year, were far from being smooth. After years of blocking progress at the climate talks, China

and the US had promised to be more proactive. But the longer the conference went on, the more

old conflicts came up. On one side of the conflict line there are industrialized nations, reluctant

to curb their carbon emissions, on the other side stand developing nations who are interested

mainly in compensation for climate impacts.

As a result of these conflicting stands the UN Climate talks at Lima wrapped up with a modest

agreement about the building blocks of a deal due to be agreed in Paris next year. The text of

Lima deal invites actions by all nations to combat warming, blurring a distinction in a 1992

IPCC ASSESSMENT REPORT 5

The report, released in Copenhagen in Nov,2014 by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is the work of thousands of scientists and was agreed after negotiations by the world’s governments.

This new overarching IPCC report builds on previous reports on the science, impacts and solutions for climate change. It is the first IPCC report since 2007 to bring together all aspects of tackling climate change and for the first time states: that it is economically affordable; that carbon emissions will ultimately have to fall to zero; and that global poverty can only be reduced by halting global warming.

The report also makes clear that carbon emissions, mainly from burning coal, oil and gas, are currently rising to record levels, not falling.

It concludes that global warming is “unequivocal”, that humanity’s role in causing it is “clear” and that many effects will last for

climate convention that split the world into two camps of rich and poor – under which the rich

had to lead the way.

Many emerging economies, such as India, insisted on that continued split. But the United States

and other rich nations said the world had changed and that developing countries also had to curb

their rising emissions.

The diplomatic formula encompassing the rival demands ended up in the text as: “Common but

differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in light of different national

circumstances.”

The Lima Call for Climate Action – represents the embryonic phase of the deal due to be

delivered in Paris. The talks in Paris won’t be easy but the world is counting on the leaders to

chalk out a really acceptable climate future.

WHERE DOES INDIA STAND

India is most vulnerable to the vagaries of climate change. Because of its pressing domestic

realities, India has maintained its emphasis on the traditional Principle of “Common but

Differentiated Responsibilities” and emphasised on the fact that India’s per capita GHG

emissions are one of the lowest in the world. The emphasis on this traditional and oft-heard

Indian argument rests on three ideas – India did not start global warming, India needs to be

New commitments, new ideas, and new financing for significant actions to address the challenge of climate change:

At UN climate summit, world leaders reaffirmed the need to take urgent action to limit global temperature rise to less than Two Degrees Celsius. Acknowledging that the world was not on a pathway to reach that goal, they also committed to significantly ramp up climate action. Following are some of the measures worth considering:

Conservation at the macro level by preserving whole ecosystem, not just parts thereof; Greater emphasis on Renewable Energy especially Solar Technology in terms of access and

affordability; Minimizing Carbon Footprints by promoting low carbon initiatives; Expanding forest and tree cover as an important Carbon Sink; Enhancing energy efficiencies and promoting the 3 R’s -- “Reduce, Recycle, Reuse”; Building resilience to empower vulnerable groups, women and local communities.

incentivised through technology and monetary incentives if it has to work towards curbing its

emissions and finally that the priority for India is to reduce poverty and for this growth is

essential.

However, India can’t stay insulated from the global concerns by harping upon its traditional

arguments. With countries like China altering their stands the heat is upon India, the fourth

largest contributor of fossil fuel emissions, to have a relook into the matter and redefine its

Climate crusade. India needs to change its traditional mindset and provide bold new leadership to

global climate change talks, as India has lot at stake when it comes to the consequences of

Climate Change on its own people.

At Lima India’s position was one of Optimism. India’s was committed to protecting the interests

of the poor and concerns of developing countries. India expressed that there is no ground for her

to agree to cut its emissions at the 2015 climate change summit, rather the three biggest emitters

must try to fill in the gap between what they have pledged and what is required to be done. India

may be the fourth largest emitter, but it is a relatively small emitter despite having a large

population. Its cumulative emissions are low: less than a third of China and a tenth of the US.

INDIA’S CLIMATE CHALLENGES

Climate Change will hugely impact India’s Agriculture esecially the vagaries of Monsoonal Climate. India’s economy is still heavily dependent on the southwest monsoon. 60 per cent of India will continue to remain rain-fed even after all of India’s irrigation potential were to be harnessed. Agriculture now accounts for less than 15 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but the livelihood and incomes of over 600 million Indians are still dependent on the monsoon.

With a long coastline, any rise in the mean sea level rise due to changing climate is a huge domestic challenge.

In the Himalayan region most glaciers (like the Gangotri) are retreating, though some glaciers (like Siachen) are advancing. This will have major implications for livelihood and food security in the Himalayan-Gangetic region.

A formidable challenge comes in the wake of issues dealing with forest conservation. Most of India’s

coal and iron ore is located in forest-rich areas in east and central India and is prone to deforestation and

the loss of carbon sinks. This may lead to further aggravating the situation.

However, the recent US-China agreement on pledging emission reduction has shifted the focus

of climate deliberations on Developing countries, especially India.

Though India maintains that there is no case for her to curb emissions, yet it will be wise that

some proactive steps be taken in this regard. India has to internalise climate considerations into

its development planning and must pass comprehensive legislations that make it mandatory to

meet climate change mitigation targets ahead of the international climate conference to be held in

Paris in 2015. This will also instill confidence in the international community on the country’s

seriousness in addressing the challenge of climate change and strengthen domestic initiatives.

The legislations should address energy efficiency targets, mandatory fuel efficiency standards,

quality of forest cover and establish standards for emission from power plants. The ‘grow now

and pay later’ model is unsustainable. India can also demonstrate its commitment by adopting a

low carbon approach to economic development. A study by the expert group of the Planning

Commission made public in April 2014 provides many options and it also showed that a low

carbon approach would only reduce average annual GDP by 0.1-0.15 percentage points. One

area where India really needs to get its act together and highlight it in negotiations as well is on

increase in solar capacity. The Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission had laid down the target

of 20,000 MW which has been raised to 100,000 MW and it’s a move in the right direction to

ensure energy security.

They way ahead for India is truly fraught with numerous challenges. On one hand India should

insist that there should be no reference to her annual emission reduction in the new Climate deal

till it achieves stabilization as developing countries did, thereby pressurizing the three biggest

emitters to meet their obligations. On the other hand India should leave no stone unturned to

make a transition from outdated and fossil fuel dependent technologies to greater use of

renewables, while agreeing to some global commitment on reduction in intensity of carbon

emissions. In wake of her low per capita consumption and falling global oil prices making

renewable options viable, India needs to switch to greener alternatives while making a massive

improvement in the zone of Energy efficiency across the board. Thus, the way ahead for India

must essentially lie on the terrain of Climate Sustainability or else Climate Conundrum will

remain a riddle forever.