Variations in Earth’s average surface temperature, over the past 20,000 years

Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time

Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,20

06, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,20

00

Source: IPPC, 2007

Gases How it is generated ? Global warming potential value

Atmospheric lifetime

Carbon dioxide

(CO2)

A naturally occurring gas released as a by-product of fossil fuel combustion, selected industrial processes and changes in the patterns of land-use, particularly deforestation. In terms of gross volume of emissions, it is by far the most important greenhouse gas.

1 200-10,000 years

Methane (CH4)

A gas released in coal mining, landfill operations, livestock raising and natural gas/oil drilling (among other processes) and human waste.

21 (21 times more potent in terms of global warming effect than CO2)

12 years

Nitrous oxide (N2O)

A gas emitted during fertilizer manufacturing and fossil fuel combustion.

310 120 years

Gases How it is generated? Global warming potential value

Atmospheric lifetime

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

A group of gasses emitted in selected manufacturing processes and frequently used in refriger-ation and air conditioning equipment.

HFC-23, HFC-12, HFC-134a and HFC 152a have global warming potential of 11700

260 years

Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)

Similar to HFCs, PFCs were developed and introduced as an alternative to ozone depleting CFCs and HFCs. They are emitted in a variety of manufacturing processes.

PFCs global warming potential ranges from 6.500 for CF4 to 9,200 for C2F6

45 years

Sulphur hexofluoride (SF)

The most potent greenhouse gas, released in a very limited number of manufacturing processes where it is used as a dielectric fluid.

Global warming potential of SF6 is equal to 23,900. SF6 represent the most dangerous group of anthropogenic-induced greenhouse gas emissions

3,200 years

Examples of greenhouse gases that are affected by human activities

CO2

Carbon dioxide

CH4

MethaneN2O

Nitrous oxide

CFC-11 Chlorofluorocarbon-11

HFC-23 Hydrofluorocarbon-23

CF4

Perfluoromethane

Pre-industrial concentration

~280 ppm

~700 ppb ~270 ppb

Zero Zero 40 ppt

Concentration in 1998

365 ppm 1745 ppb 314 ppb

268 ppt 14 ppt 80 ppt

Rate of concentration change

1.5 ppm per yr

7.0 ppb per yr

0.8 ppb per yr

~1.4 ppt per yr

0.55 ppt per yr

1.0 ppt per yr

Source: IPCC

Rising Impacts of Global Warming

Extinction of more than 40% of known species ; Global economic losses of up to 5% GDP ; Partial melting of Green land and W. Antarctica Ice sheets ; Eventually raising sea-level 1.3-2 feet.

Major changes in natural systems cause predominantly negative consequences for biodiversity, water and food supplies.Widespread coral mortality.Millions more people face flooding risk every year.

Increased risk of extinction for 20-30% of known species.Most corals bleached.Increasing mortality from heat waves, floods and droughts

Decreasing water availability ; Increasing drought in many regions ; Increasing wildfire risk ; Increased flood and storm damage ;Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory and infectious diseases

2080s

2050s

2020s

+50c

+40c

+30c

+20c

+10c

2007 Current Warming

Over 1980-1999 Temperature levels

Substantial burden on health services; Global food production decreases; About 30% of global coastal wetlands lost.

F-gases, 1.1%

N2O, 7.9%

CH4 14.3%

CO2 (deforestation,

decay of biomass, etc),

17.3%

CO2 (other), 2.8%

CO2 fossil fuel use, 56.6%

Global anthropogenic greenhousegas emissions in 2004

Who is responsible for global warming?

Developed countries have had a head start on developing countries in the industrialisation process. They have been emitting carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere for years before developing countries, at the time when the harmful effects of these emissions were not known, and hence there were no restrictions on emissions.

This is because of the energy intensive lifestyles of industrialised countries. Many of the uses of energy in the richer countries are for purposes of luxury, and the emissions caused from such uses may be termed luxury emissions.

But the lower per capita emissions of developing countries are because a large number of poor people do not even have access to basic amenities such as electricity. They will need their share of ecological space to increase what could be termed survival emissions. Citizens of richer countries will have to decrease their per capita emissions in order to allow these poor people to increase theirs, and to allow them to improve their living standards.

Pathways by which climate change affects human health

Regional weather changes

• Heatwaves

• Extreme weather

• Temperature

• Precipitation

CLIMATE CHANGE

Microbial contamination

pathways

Transmission dynamics

Agro ecosystems, hydrology

Socioeconomics, demographics

Health effects

Temperature-related illness and death

Extreme weather-related health

effects

Air pollution-related health effects

Water and food-borne diseases

Vector-borne and rodent-borne

diseases

Effects of food and water shortages

Mental, nutritional, infectious and other

health effects

Modulating influences

Overview of the health effects of climate change

Expected impacts are mainly for changes in frequency or severity of familiar health risks

1. Temperature-related illness and death

2. Extreme weather- related health effects

3. Air pollution-related health effects

4. Water and food-borne diseases

5. Vector-borne and rodent- borne diseases

6. Effects of food and water shortages

7. Psycho-social impacts on displaced populations

8. Health impacts from conflicts over access to vital resources

CLIMATECHANGE

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Health Burdens

• Following diseases will rise– Vector borne diseases– Diarrhoea– Malnutrition– Respiratory diseases– Cardiovascular disease

• Stress related problems also will rise

Year-wise ADD cases (1996-2005)

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

No

. o

f C

as

es

Year-wise Cholera cases (1996-2005)

4425

3173

35543839 3879

4178

3455

2893

4728

3154

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

No

. o

f C

as

es

Year-wise Viral Hepatitis cases (1996-2005)

131808 133594

113527

131798

152713146047

135859

151287

203939

134938

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

No

. o

f C

ases

Year-wise Entric Fever cases (1996-2005)

279438 269455

318510

379304

463578482863 488033

596684

658301

512557

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

No

. o

f C

ases

Endemic districts - 180 in 18 States/UTs)Endemic districts - 180 in 18 States/UTs)

Population: 450 million Population: 450 million

2006: 12317 Cases , 184 Deaths2006: 12317 Cases , 184 Deaths

Dengue Endemicity MapDengue Endemicity Mapin Indiain India

0

5000

10000

15000

20000Cases

0100200300400500600

Deaths

cases deaths

cases 16517 1177 707 944 650 3306 1926 12754 4153 11928 12317

deaths 545 36 18 17 7 53 33 215 45 156 184

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

2005 Cases: 11985, Deaths : 157

2006 Cases : 12317, Deaths : 184

Dengue/Dengue Haemaorrhagic Fever (DHF) Cases and Deaths in India

CHIKUNGUNYA FEVER2006

Affected districts: 188, Affected districts: 188,

Suspected Cases 1.39 millionSuspected Cases 1.39 million

Confirmed Cases 1985 out of 15504 tested (12.8%)Confirmed Cases 1985 out of 15504 tested (12.8%)

Current Burden of Climate-Sensitive Health Outcomes

• Temperature > 500 C in Western India in 1994.• Malaria epidemic in Surat following heavy rainfall in

same year.• Mumbai in Maharashtra experienced 944 mms of

rainfall on July 26 and 27,2005; > 1,000 deaths• In 2006, Surat (Gujarat), Barmer ( Rajasthan) and even

Srinagar experienced serious floods during monsoon. • Consecutive droughts between 2000 and 2002 in Orissa

affected 11 million people• Deaths due to heatstroke & cold reported every year

ROURK ELA

MANDL A

CHENN AI

CARNIC OBAR

SONAP UR

KHEDA

HARDW AR HALDW ANI

SHAHJA HANPUR

ALLAHA BAD

T W O p e n fo r m o nths

4-6

7-9

10-12

N.A

CARNIC OBAR

4-6

7-9

10-12

N.A

T W O p e n fo r m o nths

(a) (b)

Transmission windows of malaria in different states of India (a) in 2000 and (b) in 2080

Health: An Overview

Malaria may penetrate elevations above 1800 meters and some coastal areas.

10% more states may offer climatic opportunities for malaria vector breeding throughout the year with respect to the year 2000

Per-capita water availability in India

Aggregate annual utilizable water in India: 1100 billion Cu.m

Estimated water demand in India in 2025: 1013 billion Cu. m

1947 5150 Cu.m

2000 2200 Cu.m

2017 1600 Cu.m

1. ENVIRONMENTAL SANITATION & 1. ENVIRONMENTAL SANITATION & HEALTHHEALTH

HEALTH is defined as: “A state of complete physical, social and mental wellbeing, and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity”.

In this sense, health is seen as a resource for everyday life, as a positive concept that emphasises social and personal resources as well as physical capabilities.(World Health Organization, 1948)

Main Determinants of HealthSOURCE: Dahlgren, G. & Whitehead, M. 1991

Linkages between Sanitation & Health

• Diarrhoeal disease alone amount to an estimated 4.1 % of the total DALY (Disability Adjusted Life Years) Global Burden of Disease (WHO, 2004).

• 1.8 million diarrhoeal deaths each year (90% of them – among children < 5 years of age).

• Lack of attendance in schools (esp. girls) – performance negatively impacted.

• Child and Maternal health adversely affected.

Linkages between Sanitation & Health contd...

• Studies conducted by Dr. Feachem indicating relative importance of alternative preventive strategies concerning water supply, sanitation and health education revealed that health impact of supplying clean water alone is limited. However carefully designed programmes which combine water quality with improvements in water availability, safe disposal of human waste and hygiene education have the potential to be successful.

• The All India Institute of Hygiene and Public Health, Kolkata, in another study observed that the mortality and morbidity rates were higher in villages with only tubewell water supply facility than at places where only pour-flush waterseal toilets had been provided. The best results were found where both the facilities were available. The worst where none existed.

Sanitation a Top Medical Milestone

• More Than 150 Years of Medical Marvels: Sanitation Voted the Greatest Advance Since 1840.

• That's exactly the challenge the prestigious British Medical Journal posed to a small group of experts and the many thousands of their readers, mostly doctors. Well, almost exactly. They actually were looking for the greatest medical advance of the past 167 years, back to 1840, the year the journal was founded.

• In light of the truly staggering medical breakthroughs and scientific advances of the past 150 years, I think the final outcome of the contest will shock you. The ultimate winner? Sanitation!

• Sanitation received 1,795 votes. Antibiotics was a close second with 1,642 votes and anesthesia took third.

FACT: Access to Sanitation FACT: Access to Sanitation ProvisionProvision

Globally over 2.6 billion people lack basic sanitation worldwide – of which 650 million people reside in India.

Population without improved sanitation, (region wise) in 2008 (millions) – UNICEF-WHO JMP 2010 Update

Clean Development Mechanism

Clean Development Mechanism is designed to stimulate emission reductions in the developing countries, while also promoting sustainable development. The projects must qualify through a rigorous and public registration and issuance process. Approval is given by the Designated National Authorities.

The mechanism is overseen by the CDM Executive Board, answerable ultimately to the countries that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol.

Since 2006, the mechanism has already registered more than 1000 projects and is anticipated to produce CERs amounting to more than 2.7 billion tons of CO2 equivalent by 2008-2012.

CDM- How it works?The primary purpose of CDM mechanism is to allow industrialised countries to buy cheap reductions from developing countries.

Let us say that India decided to invest in a new power station, and has decided on a particular technology at the cost of X crore. An entity from an industrialised country (which could even be a company) offers to provide India with slightly better technology, which costs more (say Y crore), but will result in lower emissions.The industrialised country will only pay the incremental cost of the project-viz. Y minus X. In return, the ‘investing’ country will get ‘certified emission reductions’ (CERs), or credits, which it can use to meet its Kyoto commitments.

This is a very good deal indeed- but for the investing country. Not only do they sell developing countries their technology, but they also meet their Kyoto commitments without lifting a finger to reduce their domestic emissions. Countries like the US can continue to pollute at home, so long as it makes the reductions elsewhere.

Do developing countries like India stand to gain from the CDM?

Though the mechanism recognises and the right of developed countries to emit more GHGs, and hence their right to a higher standard of living than people in poor countries, the developing countries, like India, get benefited by this mechanism as well.

Apart from industries and transportation the major sources of GHGs emission in India are paddy fields, enteric fermentation from cattle and buffaloes and municipal solid waste.

The project can be executed using a Public-Private Partnership approach in which both the parties can invest and share the benefits. Investment and operating cost is recovered through sale of CERs, gaining annual CER for the country.

CDM Projects in India

India’s CDM potential represents a significant component of the golbal CDM market. As on 17 March 2009, out of 1455 projects registered with CDM Executive Board, 398 are from India and 453 are from China. The National CDM Authority in India has accorded Host Country Approval to 1226 projects costing Rs.151,397 crores. These projects are in the sectors of energy efficiency, fuel swithing, industrial processes, municipal solid waste and energy efficiency. If all of them get registered with CDM Executive Board, they have a potential to generate 573 million Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) by 2012. At a conservative estimate of US$10 per CER, this means a revenue of US$5.73 billion to the country.

3-truths: Climate change political and economic challenge

1. Is related to economic growth. No one has built a low carbon economy (as yet)

2. Is about sharing growth between nations and between people. The rich must reduce so that the poor can grow. Create ecological space.

3. Is about cooperation. If the rich emitted yesterday, the emerging rich world will do today. Cooperation demands equity and fairness. It is a pre-requisite for an effective climate agreement.

ConclusionsConclusions• Climate change is real, accelerating and it threatens all of us• Diverse, global and probably irreversible over human time

scales• Health impacts are potentially huge and threaten public

health security• The risks are inequitable; GHG are emitted by developed

countries but the health risks are concentrated in poor countries which have contributed least. These countries will suffer earliest and most.

• What we do now may not have major impact in next 40-50 years. But our efforts in next 10-20 years can have a profound effect on climate in second half of century

• A gift to the next generations