climate change risk perception, extreme weather, flooding...

Thomas Addoah

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Public Perception of Climate Change Risk: Understanding the Influence of

Extreme Weather (flooding) Experience on Climate Change Perceptions in

Accra- Ghana.

Thomas Addoah

Abstract

Understanding public perception of climate change risk and the factors that influence it has been

established to be crucial in generating support for climate change response. A number of factors

including the experience of extreme weather events have been identified in previous studies as having

an influence on public opinions and concerns of climate change. However, little is known of the public

risk perception of climate change and its influencing factors in a developing country contexts. This

study sought to investigate the risk perception of climate change among residents and the influence of

flooding experience in shaping such perceptions using a household survey. Results indicate that, flood

-victims showed higher risk perception by being more concerned about climate change than non-

victims. On the other hand, concerns about the impacts of climate change was seen to be the lowest

when compared with other current issues the country is facing. The results of this study bring the

perspective of a developing country into the knowledge base of climate change risk perception and the

influence of extreme weather events.

Keywords

Climate Change risk perception, extreme weather, flooding experience, Ghana, Accra,

Perceived Concern, Perceived Seriousness

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INTRODUCTION

The impact of climate change is being felt globally through various means including the

increasing occurrence of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, etc. (Myers et al.,

2013). However, the severity of the impact is predicted to be greatest in developing countries

because of their large reliance on natural resources and lack of adaptive capacity making them

more vulnerable (UNFCCC, 2006). Various countries have therefore developed policies and

initiatives on how to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Globally, countries

have come together through the UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP 21) to set an ambitious

target of dealing with greenhouse gasses (GHG) emissions mitigation, adaptation and finance

starting in the year 2020 after the Paris agreement.

Research has however shown that it will be difficult to implement climate change mitigation

and adaptation policies without taking into account the views and values of the general public

(Lorenzoni and Pidgeon, 2006). In addition, it has been established that the support or

opposition of a person to climate change response measures is contingent to his/her belief and

attitudes to such an issue (Leiserowitz, 2007; Lorenzoni et al., 2007; Capstick et al., 2014). It

is therefore imperative for policy makers to have a good understanding of public perceptions

regarding climate change and some of the factors that might influence such perceptions in order

to generate enough public support in the designing and implementation of climate change

policies and interventions (Hagen, 2013). Moreover, such understanding is necessary in

framing and communicating policies to the general public in order to ensure a proper inclusive

public participation in critical national issues such as climate change mitigation and adaptation

(Lorenzoni, et al, 2007).

Despite the large consensus on the importance of understanding public perceptions of climate

change and its implication on policies, there is little or no evidence of public perceptions of

climate change in Ghana and to the large extend in Africa. This is because most of the studies

on public perceptions and its influencing factors are done in the developed countries which

according to Pidgeon (2012) is partly due to the difficulties in conducting cross -national

surveys in developing countries. The only notable research about the perception of Africans on

climate change is the ‘Africa Talks Climate Change’ by the British Broadcasting Corporation

in 2010 (BBC 2010b).

Based on the vulnerability of developing countries like Ghana to climate change impact and

the crucial role of public opinion in the development and implementation of climate change

policies, this current study using a household survey conducted in Ghana provides empirical

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findings from the perspective of a developing country on issues of public perception of climate

change and how the experience of flooding which is considered as one of the manifestation of

climate change influences such perceptions. This will also help address the contextual

variations that exist within countries and regions on the opinions and concerns of the public on

climate change as alluded to by previous studies such as (Brechin, et al., 2011; Leiserowitz,

2007).

Predictors of climate change risk perceptions

Though, determining what shapes people’s perception of climate change is complex, previous

studies for example have suggested an association between climate change perception and

other variables such as socio-demographic characteristics (O’Connor, et al. 2002; Wood and

Vedlitz, 2007; Brody et al. 2008; van der Linden, 2015), socio-cultural factors (Smith &

Leiserowitz, 2012; Akerlof et al., 2013), recent experiences with (extreme) weather event

(Lowenstein, 2001; Weber, 2006; Joireman et al. 2010; Spence et al. 2011) and cognitive

factors such as persons knowledge on climate change (Malka, et al. 2009; Menny, et al. 2011;

Reser, et al. 2012).

In relation to personal experience, since climate change cannot be experienced directly

(Whitmarsh, 2008), it is therefore believed that a person’s perception of climate change may

thus be partially formed by his/her proximity to “danger”, for example, through personal

experience of a climate-related event or by living near or in a hazard-prone area (Lujala, 2014).

A plethora of findings from different research (Leiserowitz 2006; Brody, et al. 2008; Spence

et al. 2011; Akerlof, et al. 2013; Myers et al. 2013; Lujala et al. 2014) suggest that, personal

experience with extreme weather events does influence perception of climate change and thus

relate to people’s attitude on climate change policy. One of such extreme weather events is

flooding. Indeed, one of the concluded findings from the IPCC (2007) working group II is that

there is a high probability (67-95% likelihood) that climate change will result in more intense

precipitation events leading to increased floods, land and mudslide, and soil erosion. Although

a direct link between the experience of climate change and flooding experience has not been

established previously (Spence, et al. 2011), it is believe that the experience of flood event may

influence a person’s perception of climate change making him /her much concerned about the

effects and consequences and likely to take action or support initiatives that seek to address it.

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The role of climate change and variability in the occurrence of flooding in Accra

There is a contention on the role of climate change/variability in flooding in Accra among

researchers, institutions, and stakeholders (Douglas et al. 2008; Karley 2009; Rain et al. 2011;

Amoako and Boamah, 2014). Most researchers do not believe that climate change is the

fundamental cause of flooding in Accra while some believe it plays a role (See Douglas, 2008;

Karley, 2009; Rain, et al., 2011; and Appeaning-Addo, 2013).

Douglas et al (2008), argue in a study of five African cities; Accra (Ghana), Kampala (Uganda),

Lagos (Nigeria), Maputo (Mozambique) and Nairobi (Kenya) that, urban flooding in Africa is

not just related to heavy rainfall and other extreme climatic events, which has a link with

climate change, but also related to uncontrolled urbanisation. Similarly, Karley (2009) on

flooding and urban planning in Accra came to the conclusion that “whilst heavy rainfalls and

increased intensity of rainfall may result in flooding, the fundamental problem is that water

courses are being blocked as a result of human activities such as building houses on river beds

and across water courses, the lack of adequate and the right drainage infrastructure and the

siltation of limited drainage systems” (p..40). Rain et al (2011) also postulates clearly that, ‘the

massive growth of the Accra city’ is, first of all, the cause of floods hazards which make the

residents vulnerable to flood occurrence. Nonetheless, none of the studies completely ruled out

the role of climate change in the occurrence of floods in Accra. Similar sentiments were

expressed during the June 2015 catastrophic flooding that plagued the city where the president

of Ghana in his remarks acknowledged the role of climate change but was, however, quick to

add that, ‘the Accra, floods were exacerbated by human activities’ (Nuamah, 2015). This

indeed makes the linkage of climate change to flooding in Accra a complicated issue.

Although, other drivers as mentioned above contribute to floods, heavy rainfalls cannot be

ruled out as a major contributing factor to the occurrence of recent floods in Accra and Ghana

as a whole although it cannot be said with certainty that climate change/variability causes the

heavy rainfalls. For instance, in a media publication after the June 2015 floods in Accra, the

director of research at Ghana Meteorological Agency referred to the three days heavy rainfall

from June 1-3, 2015 as a contributing factor to the cause of the floods. Besides, he also stated

that, the heavy rainfall coincided with high tide in the sea, which prevented the rainwater from

flowing into the sea (Jafaru, 2015). It will therefore be inaccurate to link the cause of the

flooding to only urbanisation as some studies have suggested. Indeed, data obtained from the

Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMET) reported by Amoako and Boamah (2014) indicates

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that while the frequency of rainfall is reducing, the average intensity of rainfall per day appears

to have gone up.

Policy responses to climate change in Ghana

Ghana, like many other African countries, faces enormous social, economic and environmental

challenges that are likely to be exacerbated by the impacts of climate change if not tackled

(Owusu, et al. 2013). Ghana is also prone to many climate-related disasters such as floods,

droughts, disease epidemics, etc. The Africa Adaptation Programme- Ghana, estimates that

80% of disasters in Ghana are climate-related, hence raising a national concern on effective

adaptation, mitigation and resilience to climate change.

Though Ghana’s GHG emissions represent about 0.05% of global emissions, climate change

priorities are gaining momentum in the political sphere and across economic sectors

(Nachmany, et al, 2015). Ghana, after ratifying the UNFCCC in 1995 submitted its first, second

and third national communications in the year 2000, 2011 and 2015 respectively. There is

currently a National Climate Change Policy launched in 2013, which aims to promote low

carbon development, increase policy coherence on climate change, and increase Ghana’s

attractiveness to funding for mitigation. Ghana has also submitted its Intended Nationally

Determined Contributions (INDCs) to UNFCCC and recently ratified the Paris climate change

agreement. All these indicate the country’s efforts on addressing climate change and its impact

on society. The main issue now is how to get the public to ‘buy-in’ to what the government

aims to contribute towards the reduction of green-house emissions as stated in the INDC. This

can be achieve adequately by knowing the level of awareness and perception of the public on

climate change and the factors that influence such perceptions. Hence the relevance of this

study.

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DATA AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

The data collection took the form of a face-to-face household survey in two communities in

Accra (the capital city of Ghana) where respondents were asked questions on their level of

awareness, belief, and knowledge of climate change and whether the experience of flooding

significantly affects their perception (concern and seriousness) of climate change. Accra, due

to the topography (lowland) is very susceptible to flooding and has been experiencing same.

For the purpose of this study, assessment of flooding experience was restricted to flooding

event which occurred on June 3, 2015 in the city. Moreover, this particular event was chosen

because of the timing and the magnitude of damage it caused. Data from a survey of 65

households from two communities (Mpoase and Oyarifa) in the Accra Metropolitan Area

(AMA) was analysed statistically. The two communities were selected based on their degree

of impact to the flooding event. Mpoase was severely affected by the floods causing damage

to properties since its one of the coastal communities while Oyarifa on the other hand which is

an inland from the coast, was not affected by the floods.

A structured questionnaire was constructed using questions from previous studies (Whitmarsh,

2008; Reser, et al, 2012; Taylor, et al 2014). Drawing on items from Reser, et al., (2012) study,

six questions were used to measure the climate change risk perception of respondents. Climate

change perceptions have been measured in several ways in previous studies. While some

studies use a single item, others such as Reser, et al (2012), Leseirowitz, (2006) developed a

single composite measure to ascertain the risk perceptions of people on climate change. For

this study however, in order to examine climate change perception in more detail, the six items

used by Reser, et al. (2012) were split into two measures based on the wordings; three for

‘Perceived Concern’, that is how concerned respondents are about climate change and another

three for ‘Perceived Seriousness’, that is how serious do respondents perceive climate change

to be. This two-dimensional measure according to van der Linden (2015) gives a detail insight

on the issue of climate change perception than a uni-dimensional measure.

A scale reliability analysis1 was done to check the internal consistency of the scale items. The

analysis revealed that the Cronbach alpha2 of both scales (indices) are sufficiently high; 0.72

and 0.86 for ‘Perceived Concerned’ and ‘Perceived Seriousness’ respectively above the cut-off

point of 0.5 suggested by (Field, 2013, Pallant, 2013). Aside the high internal consistency, the

1 This is done to test the ability of a measure (questionnaire) to produce consistent results when the same entities are measured under different conditions. 2 A measure of the reliability of a scale

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three items on the perceived concerned scale are the same items Spence et al. (2011) used in

their study to measure concerns about climate change for a nationally representative British

sample.

DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS

General level of awareness and knowledge about climate change

Respondents’ awareness level of climate change was explored by asking them whether before

the survey they had heard the term climate change which is sometimes referred to as global

warming. The results indicated that 75% of the sample answered in the affirmative with radio

(42%) being the highest source of hearing the term climate change/global warming. However,

when the 75% of the respondents were asked to rank their level of knowledge on the issues of

climate change on a 4 point Likert scale ranging from ‘a great deal to ‘nothing at all’, it came

out that, 53.4% believe they know ‘nothing at all’ or ‘only a little’ about the issues of climate

change compared to 12.1% who said they know ‘a great deal’. This indeed implies that,

awareness does not necessarily equate to self-assessed knowledge.

This corroborates with the BBC (2010) Africa Talk climate change, which also found that,

awareness is high however; people lack understandings on the causes of climate change. This

finding further highlights the importance of framing and communicating climate change.

Another implication of this study in the context of Ghana is that, it might highlight the

weaknesses of the governments’ climate change awareness campaign of only creating

awareness without educating the public on the causes of it.

In relation to the causes of climate change, the pie chart below (figure 1) indicates what

respondents think is the principal cause of climate change. The majority of the respondents

(39%) believe that climate change is caused by both human activities and natural changes with

6.3% not believing in the occurrence of climate change. overall, about 73% of respondents hold

the view that human activities contribute to climate change. This might be good for policies

that might require behavioural change and sustainable consumption.

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Figure 1: Pie chart showing respondents’ opinion on the causes of climate change

Respondents Risk perception of climate change

Analysis of the data (Table 1 and Table 2) shows that 75% of respondents say they are ‘fairly

concerned’ to ‘very concerned’ that climate change might affect them personally and 83% in

relation to the effects on their society. This is consistent with studies that suggest that personal

risk from climate change are usually judged to be lower than societal risks (Spence and

Pidgeon, 2010; Leiserowitz, et al, 2010). In relation to how serious respondents see the impact

of climate change, about 85% believe it will be a ‘fairly serious’ to ‘very serious’ problem for

their country (Ghana) if nothing is done to tackle it compared to about 79% for the world in

general.

Paradoxically, while the overall risk perception looks high among respondents, this high level

of concern is reduced when climate change is compared to other issues in the country such as

the economy, poverty, healthcare, unemployment, electricity supply, and others. In fact,

respondents ranked climate change the least important issue that needs to be address in Ghana

now (figure 2). Other studies reported similar patterns in the UK (Whitmarsh, 2008; Capstick,

et al. 2015); US (Leiseirowitz, 2012) and other European countries (Eurobarometer, 2011,

2014). The only difference is that, climate change was not ranked the least among other issues

in those developed countries. This is not surprising, particularly in the context of a developing

country like Ghana where there is prevalence of issues such as poverty, unemployment, erratic

34%

40%

17%

3%6%

Respondents opinion on the causes of Climate change

Mostly by human activities

Both human activities and naturalchanges

Mostly by natural changes

No sufficient evidence

Climate change is not occuring

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power supply and economic challenges. These issues are more discussed and politicised in the

media compared to climate change that can appear abstract and often cannot be experienced

directly (Whitmarsh, 2008).

TABLE 1: Respondents perceived level of concern about climate change in general,

personally and in society (N = 65)

SCALE ITEM RESPONDENTS RESPONSE

Perceived Concerned Scale Very

Concerned

Fairly

Concerned

Not very

concerned

Not at all

concerned

Don’t

Know

How concern, if at all, are you

about climate change in

general?

37

(57.8%)

11

(17.2%)

10

(15.6%)

5

(7.8%)

1

(1.6%)

How concerned are you that

climate change might affect

you personally?

32

(50%)

16

(25%)

6

(9.4%)

8

(12.5%)

2

(3.1%)

How concerned are you about

potential effects of climate

change on your society in

general?

37

(57.8%)

16

(25%)

5

7.8%)

5

(7.8%)

1

(1.6%)

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TABLE 2: Respondents level of perceived seriousness of the impacts of climate change

currently, to their country (Ghana) and globally (N=65)

SCALE ITEM RESPONDENTS RESPONSE

Perceived Seriousness Scale

Very

serious

Fairly

serious

Not very

serious

Not at all

serious

Don’t

Know

How serious a problem do you think

climate change is right now?

37

(57.8%)

13

(20.3%)

8

(12.5%)

4

(6.3%)

2

(3.1%)

If nothing is done to reduce climate

change in the future, how serious a

problem do you think it will be for

Ghana?

48

(75%)

6

(9.4%)

3

(4.7%)

4

(6.3%)

3

(4.7%)




the world?

44

(68.8%)

7

(10.9%)

4

(6.3%)

3

(4.7%)

6

(9.4%)

FIGURE 2: Bar graph showing frequency of what respondents perceive to be most

commonly important problems facing Ghana now.

33 34

9

17

4

19

9

18

13

5

27

Nu

mb

er

of

Re

spo

nd

en

ts

Note: respondents were asked to select the 3 most important issues from a list of 11 issues

Number of respondents selecting an issue as important

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The influence of flood experience on climate change perception

A Chi-square test was used to measure the differences between flood victims and non-victims

in relation to their concern and seriousness about climate change. For purposes of analysis, the

responses were recoded into dichotomous variable (0= ‘Not concern’ and ‘Not serious’ while

1=’Concern’ and ‘Serious’). The results as shown in (Table 3 and Table 4) indicate that the

experience of flood do have influence on climate change perception such that, flood victims

have higher scores on all the survey items used to measure perception of climate change.

However, in terms of significance, personal experience of flooding was only a significant

predictor of ‘perceived seriousness’ but not ‘perceived concern’ of climate change.

Respondents who were affected by the floods tended to have significantly higher perceptions

in terms of how serious the effect of climate change is or will be if not tackled than non-flood

victims. Indeed such a discrepancy in the statistical significance between the two indices gives

justification for the approach adopted by this study to measure climate change perception using

two indices (perceived concern and perceived seriousness).

The finding from using this approach has given a detail understanding of climate change risk

perceptions and highlights the influence of personal experience on peoples’ risk perception of

climate change such that, a person’s level of concern might not necessarily imply how serious

he/ she sees the effects of climate change to be unless maybe there is an experience of a climatic

event such as flooding before such a person can appreciate the seriousness of the effects of

climate change. Again, this finding highlights the importance of context in the framing and

communication of climate change issue as suggested by Spence and Pidgeon (2010). In this

context, the term ‘serious’ appears to have a stronger correlation to risk perceptions of

respondents than ‘concern’ which might not be the same elsewhere. It could be argued that, the

use of the particular phrase or terminology (concern or serious) might have elicited different

emotions which several studies have found to influence risk perception (Leiserowitz, 2006;

Slovic, 2000; van der Linden, 2015).

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TABLE 3: Variation in responses to questions about perceived concerned about climate

change according to flooding experience (chi-square results) (N = 65).

(Perceived Concerned)

Survey questions

Response

Categories

(Recoded)

Flood

victims

N = 32

Non-Flood

victims

N = 33

How concerned are you about climate

change?

Concerned 81.2% 69.7%

Not concerned 18.8% 30.3%

How concerned are you that climate

change might affect you personally?

Concerned 81.3% 69.7%

Not Concerned 18.7% 30.3%

How concerned are you about

potential effects of climate change on

society in general?

Concerned 96.9%** 69.7%**

Not Concerned 3.1%** 30.3%**

**p<0.01 (significant). The responses were coded into (0 =Not Concerned, 1 = Concerned)

TABLE 4: Variation in responses to questions about perceived seriousness of climate change

according to flooding experience (chi-square results) (N = 65).

(Perceived Seriousness)

Survey questions

Response

Categories

(Recoded)

Flood

victims

N = 32

Non-Flood

victims

N = 33

How serious a problem do you think

climate change is right now?

Serious 90.6%* 66.7%*

Not Serious 9.4%* 33.3%*




Ghana?

Serious 96.9%** 72.7%**

Not Serious 3.1%** 27.3%**



problem do you think it will be for the

world?

Serious 90.6%* 66.7%*

Not Serious 9.4%* 33.3%*

*p<0.05, **p<0.01 (Significant)

Responses were coded and dichotomised (0 =Not serious, 1 = Serious)

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The study also sought to investigate the determinants of the two dependent variables

(‘perceived concern’ and ‘perceived seriousness’) and the predictability with flood experience

of perceived concern (model 1) and perceived seriousness (model 2) controlling for other

variables such as relatives and friends been affected by the floods, self-reported knowledge

about climate change, noticing weather changes and gender (Independent variables). Two

regression analysis were run using these variables (Table 5). The results indicate that, when

controlling for the other variables in the regression, flood experience is a significant predictor

of ‘perceived seriousness’ but not ‘perceived concern’. This means that flooding experience

was able to predict how serious the issue of climate change is to respondents. Again, weather

changes was seen to be a significant predictor of ‘perceived concern’ but not ‘perceived

seriousness’. This implies that respondents who reported to have notice changes in the weather

of Ghana for some time now were more concerned than those who reported to have not noticed

any changes. Flooding experience and the controlled variables jointly explains 20% of the

variance in ‘perceived seriousness’, (F (4, 58) = 2.92, p< 0.05, R2 = 0.20). No variable other than

flooding experience was a significant predictor on perceived seriousness of climate change.

Table 5: Multiple Regression Analysis on Perceived concern and Perceived Seriousness

Independent variable

Perceived Concern

Model 1

β

Perceived Seriousness

Model 2

Β

Flood Experience .14 .40*

Notice in weather changes .33* .17

Gender .13 .21

Climate change knowledge .11 .18

Relatives/friends affected by flood .15 -.12

N 65 65

R2 0.22 0.20

F 3.33 2.92

Note: 1. Dependent Variables are: Perceived Concern and Perceived Seriousness

1. Entries are standardised beta coefficients, * p < 0.05, (significant).

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CONCLUSION

The study found that majority of respondents are aware of climate change and believe that it

is occurring with a human factor contributing to it. Overall, respondents have a high climate

change risk perception and see it to be an issue of concern. However, when compared with

other issues in the country it came out that respondents perceive those issues as more important

and serious than climate change. The implication is that respondents are more likely to be

concerned about issues that are observable and easier to comprehend. Hence the need for more

education on climate change issues spanning the causes, impacts and responses. Probably, more

education will help people to understand why climate change should not be the least concern

amidst other issues and ‘buy-in’ to climate change mitigation and adaptation policies

Flood victims and non-victims differed significantly in their perceptions of how serious climate

change is but not on the general concern about climate change. The flood-victims perceived

climate change to be more serious than the non-flood victims. This indeed, emphasises the need

to distinguish between the two measures such that general concern about a phenomenon differs

from how severe it is perceived to be. While the attribution of weather events to climate change

is complicated, findings from this study highlight the importance of context in the framing of

climate change risk communication. In this context, making the content of climate change

communication strong and highlighting the seriousness of it might be a useful strategy. Again,

probably making a more explicit linkage between climate change and the frequency of floods

and other extreme weather events in Ghana might also be a useful communication strategy and

may encourage people to engage with the issue of climate change and take action to mitigate

the potential impacts (Spence et. al. 2011).

In terms of the linkage between flooding and climate change, it was found that, respondents

seems not to see any linkage between the two in relation to the flood that occurred on June

2015 with majority of them echoing what had been said in the media in relation to causes of

the flood. This finding adds to the existing complexity of the linkage of extreme weather events

to climate change.

Overall, this study appears to be first in examining the influence of flooding experience on

climate change perception in Africa. Hence, these findings will contribute to the literature from

the perspective of a developing country.

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