people perception about climate change and adaptation in
TRANSCRIPT
People Perception about Climate Change and People Perception about Climate Change and
Adaptation in the Arid Region of PakistanAdaptation in the Arid Region of Pakistan
Saif Saif UllahUllah KhanKhanProf. Dr. Prof. Dr. MahmoodMahmood--UlUl--HasanHasan
Prof. Dr. Muhammad Prof. Dr. Muhammad AslamAslam KhanKhan
Institute of Geography, Urban & Regional Planning, Disaster Management, University of Peshawar, KPK, Pakistan
The 2nd World Sustainability Forum 1-30 November 2012
Scheme of PresentationScheme of Presentation• Abstract• Introduction• Location of the study area• Methods and Data• Findings and discussions• Adaptation to climate change
– Water Sector adaptation– Coastal management – Agriculture – Forestry – Drought and Desertification
• Mitigation– Early warning system and monitoring – Raising public awareness – Improving R&D facilities:
• Conclusion and Recommendations• Acknowledgment
IntroductionIntroductionThe paper analyzes public perception regarding climate change and adaptation in the arid region of Pakistan 1961-2000 in terms of surface water, coastal management, overgrazing, deforestation, agriculture and livestock, drought and desertification, public awareness, emergency response, early warning system and monitoring, landuse change, waterlogging, and sources of energy etc.
Research declaration:• The gross per capita water availability in Pakistan was 5300 m3/year
(1951) that decline to 1200 m3/year (2000). • Due to decrease in precipitation of about 0.05inches (-1.27mm) and
increase in temperature of 1.6 0C (1961-2000), the climate in Pakistan shows a more vulnerable condition from 1961-2000.
Study Area LocationStudy Area Location• Aridity prevails over 676,400
sq.km area of Pakistan. The current arid region of Pakistan comprises of Gilgit-Baltistan province in the north, southern Punjab, whole of Sind, central and southern Baluchistan, and parts of Chitral and Dera IsmailKhan Districts in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province.
• Arid region extends northeast to southwest from latitude 370N into 23 1/20N and longitude
60oE to 75oEast.
MethodologyMethodologyVariablesVariables
• Precipitation
• Temperature
• Surface water
• Coastal Management
• Natural Disasters
• Agriculture
• Drought and Desertification
• Energy Sector
ObjectivesObjectivesThe main objective of the study is to know the public opinion and awareness about the climate change, causes, and adaptation in the arid region of Pakistan.
Research Questions:• what is the public opinion regarding
climate change, its impacts and how to cope with the problem?
• Are people of the arid region aware about this issue and willing to participate on the actions required?
Research HypothesisResearch HypothesisChanges in the temperature and Changes in the temperature and
precipitation in Pakistan have affected precipitation in Pakistan have affected
agriculture in arid lands of Pakistan agriculture in arid lands of Pakistan
severely and people perception is need severely and people perception is need
for the adaptation strategies to cope with for the adaptation strategies to cope with
the situation.the situation.
MethodologyMethodologyData collection
The work is based on primary data collected from the field questionnaire survey and personal interviews. The major questions are about temperature and precipitation fluctuation, deforestation, overgrazing, drought, desertification, landusechange, wars, crop production, population growth, construction of water reservoirs, river flow, environment policies, and willingness to cope with the climate change issue.As the security situation is not good in the entire arid region.Therefore, a questionnaire survey was conducted in the arid region of the lower Punjab, parts of Balochistan, Sind, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Upper and lower Khyber Pukhtunkhwa provinces taking into account random sampling method. The sample areas covers about 25 districts having different kind of desert landforms like pure desert, piedmont plains, irrigated desert, sand dunes, steppe, and barren mountains.
Analysis of DataAnalysis of DataThe work is based on primary data collected from the field questionnaire survey and personal interviews. The major questions are about temperature and precipitation fluctuation, deforestation, overgrazing, drought, desertification, landuse change, wars, crop production, population growth, construction of water reservoirs, river flow, environment policies, and willingness to cope with the climate change issue. As the security situation is not good in the entire arid region. Therefore, a questionnaire survey was conducted in the arid region of the lower Punjab, parts of Balochistan, Sind, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Upper and lower Khyber Pukhtunkhwa provinces taking into account random sampling method. The sample areas covers about 25 districts having different kind of desert landforms like pure desert, piedmont plains, irrigated desert, sand dunes, steppe, and barren mountains. It represents a clear picture of the entire arid region of Pakistan. The questionnaires were distributed among the students and teachers of the University of Bahawalpur, Peshawar, Karachi, and Quetta. The people who are surveyed and interviewed are including professors, lecturers, M.Sc and M.Philstudents, farmers, lawyers, and statisticians. Total of 150 questionnaires were distributed in which 130 questionnaires were returned with complete answers (Graph-1) and used for the analysis. Generally, approximately 6 questionnaires were collected from each district. A master sheet has been prepared from the public opinion that classified into tables and charts for the purpose of analysis and conclusion.
Natural Disasters (Floods) Natural Disasters (Floods) As Evidence of Climate ChangeAs Evidence of Climate Change
Kalam, Place of Origin
Nowshera CityCharsadda
Jehangira Chakdara Fort Sind Province
Natural Disasters (Land Slide, Snow Natural Disasters (Land Slide, Snow Avalanches & Tectonic Moment)Avalanches & Tectonic Moment)
Trapped 100 Pak Army, Skardu
Skardu
Land Slide at HunzaValley
Earthquake 2005
Physiography: GilgitPhysiography: Gilgit--BaltistanBaltistanBunji, GB
Gilgit City and Surroundings
Hunza, Valley, GB
Joint of Lesser Himalaya, K2, and Hindukush Mountains, near
Gilgit
Gilgit River
Gilgit River Indus River
Indus River
Physiography and Natural Vegetation, Physiography and Natural Vegetation, Sind, Punjab, and BaluchistanSind, Punjab, and Baluchistan
Mangrooves, Manora, Karachi
Umarkot, Sind
Chhor, SindKhirthar Mountains Sind
Arid BaluchistanArid Baluchistan
Gawadar Highway
Kech, Baluchistan
Chagai, Baluchistan
Mir Chakar Khan Fort
Baluchistan Coastal RegionBaluchistan Coastal Region
Buzi Pass
Gawadar Mastung
Sand Dues, Chagai
Precipitation DistributionPrecipitation Distribution
Annual Precipitation and TemperatureAnnual Precipitation and TemperatureGraph-4.2: Arid Region
Deviation of Mean Monthly Temperature and Precipitation from the Mean
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Months
Mea
n M
onth
ly P
reci
pita
tion
(Inch
es)
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Mea
n M
onth
ly T
empe
ratu
re (0 C
)
Precipitation -6.1 1.1 12.2 -0.1 -10.9 -8.9 41.7 33.4 -4.1 -19.9 -23.7 -14.7
Temperature -11.6 -9.0 -3.9 1.7 5.9 8.9 9.0 7.9 5.3 0.8 -4.9 -10.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Graph-6.1: Arid Region Palmer Drought Severity Index Latitudes 250-300 North and Longitudes 620-720 East (1871-
2000)
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1871
1881
1891
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
Years
Palm
er D
roug
ht S
ever
ity In
dex
Results and DiscussionsResults and DiscussionsAnnual Decline in PrecipitationAnnual Decline in Precipitation
Graph-1: Arid ReigionAnnual Trend of Precipitation (1961-2000)
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Years
Dev
iatio
n fr
om th
e M
ean
Total Seasonal FluctuationTotal Seasonal FluctuationGraph-13: Arid Region
Total Oscillation of Seasonal Precipitation (1961-2000)
-0.12
-0.1
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
Seasons
Sum
of D
evita
tion
from
the
mea
n (In
ches
)
1961-2000 -0.05 -0.04 0.05 -0.11
Winter Pre-Monsoon Monsoon Post-Monsoon
Results and DiscussionsResults and DiscussionsGross per capita Gross per capita AvailabiltyAvailabilty
Graph-6: Pakistan Per Capita Availability of Water Resources 1951-2000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Years
Wat
er p
er C
apita
(M3 )
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Popu
latio
n (M
illio
ns)
Per Capita Availability 5300 3950 2700 2100 1600 1200
Population 34 46 65 84 115 148
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2000
HinaHina Lake, Lake, QuettaQuetta BaluchistanBaluchistanHina
Lake,WinterHina Lake, Spring
Season
Hina Lake, Dry Summer
Desert Landforms, Gawadar
Expansion in the Arid Region 1961Expansion in the Arid Region 1961--20002000
Water Sector AdaptationWater Sector Adaptation•• Water Conservation Water Conservation
–– Construction of new Water Reservoirs Construction of new Water Reservoirs –– Construction of Seasonal Reservoirs Construction of Seasonal Reservoirs –– Construction of Small Dams Construction of Small Dams –– Construction of Inland Dams/lakes: Construction of Inland Dams/lakes: –– Construction of Inland PondsConstruction of Inland Ponds
•• Construction of River Embankments Construction of River Embankments •• Well planned Drinking Water Supply Well planned Drinking Water Supply •• Improvement in the Irrigation system Improvement in the Irrigation system •• Public Awareness Using Mass mediaPublic Awareness Using Mass media•• Policy for Water Management Policy for Water Management •• Establishment of Research and Development fundEstablishment of Research and Development fund•• Planning for water resourcesPlanning for water resources•• Foundation of Arid region development CenterFoundation of Arid region development Center
Adaptation to Coastal ManagementAdaptation to Coastal Management•• To build up coastal management regulations.To build up coastal management regulations.
•• EarlyEarly--warning and response systems regarding erosion, warning and response systems regarding erosion, deposition, change in the coastal land forms, floods, cyclones deposition, change in the coastal land forms, floods, cyclones etc.etc.
•• Designing of mega projects for the purpose to purify the salt Designing of mega projects for the purpose to purify the salt and to save the costal region from water logging and salinityand to save the costal region from water logging and salinity
•• To develop airborne irrigation system for the entire arid areas To develop airborne irrigation system for the entire arid areas of of BaluchistanBaluchistan and and SindSind provinces using ocean water. provinces using ocean water.
•• To design projects for improvement of the sea beaches for the To design projects for improvement of the sea beaches for the tourism purposes in tourism purposes in BaluchistanBaluchistan and and SindSind. .
Adaptation to AgricultureAdaptation to Agriculture•• Development of agricultural infrastructureDevelopment of agricultural infrastructure• Crop choice • Investment in irrigation infrastructure:• Water saving technologies: • Basic technology needs • Crop yield and water management • Expansion in irrigation system
Adaptation to ForestryAdaptation to Forestry• National level forest policy and laws. • Comprehensive monitoring system for forests resources and
ecosystem• Protection of existing forest resources and other natural
ecosystems.• Strengthen controls on forest fires, insects and diseases.• Biodiversity conservation and restoration• Establish National Center for Forests and Wildlife on Federal
and provincial level. • Implementation of climate change adaptation taxes on
industrial sector.• Educate locals about the impacts of deforestation on the
physical environment using mass media and community program.
Early warning system and monitoringEarly warning system and monitoring• To counter flood and storms, local governments are
required to develop city flood control and water drainage plans.
• To introduce new technologies for the monitoring and early warning system for flood, surface water, earthquakes, cyclones etc.
• To improve the forecasting of weather for agriculture and also to develop new forecasting centers throughout the arid region to control drought and desertification, water flow etc.
Raising Public AwarenessRaising Public Awareness• All level of governmental officials, decision-makers and educational
institutions should be exposed to climate change information andwork toward raising public awareness.
• Pakistan is required to employ the power of the mass media to disseminate information about climate change through books, newspapers, periodicals, audio and video products, and the Internet. Government is needed to integrate knowledge about climate changeinto the education curriculum of the arid region.
• To establish an incentive mechanism to encourage public and enterprise participation, increase the transparency of decision-making processes related to climate change issues, promote public supervision, and encourage social groups and NGOs to play activeroles in the adaptation of climate change especially in Baluchistan.
• To strengthen international cooperation on public awareness related to climate change issues, especially good practices on climate change
information dissemination and education.
Improving R&D FacilitiesImproving R&D Facilities• Establish of Dry Land Research and Development Funds
on federal and provincial level.• R&D should be run through experts and highly
specialized people. • Promote scientific research and technological
development . • Establish effective incentive and competition
mechanisms and a favorable academic environment for researchers, foster academic leaders and eminent candidates.
• Establishment of arid region climate change science and technology management Center.
• Use of the multilateral funds from foreign governments and international organizations.
Adaptation to Drought and Adaptation to Drought and DesertificationDesertification
• Awareness of the serious deterioration of the natural resources in the areas around the deserts.
• Mobilization and exploitation of water resources in different parts of the arid region.
• Control on the far reaching change in the land use of the arid region.
• Establishment of emergency response plan.• Storage of rainy water in pools or artificial ponds.• Plantation of drought resistant crops and vegetation.• To introduce comprehensive soil management techniques and
technologies.• Matching of soil types with appropriate crops and to educate
the locals regarding the crops and soil matching process.• To grow plantation forests, especially the acacia tree, in the
surroundings of the arid region to control desertification.
Conclusion and RecommendationsConclusion and Recommendations• To control deforestation, population growth, and over grazing.• To control atmospheric pollution, addition of chlorofluorocarbons, wars in the entire
region, nuclear conflicts, and vehicle emissions.• To introduce early warning system for floods and drought. • To prefer construction of new dams and barrages for the storage of flood water. • To take action for the depletion of underground water.• To aware the public regarding the impact of climate change using mass media and to
include climate change concept in the curriculum at school level.• To reserve funds for reforestation on mountains and to control deforestation in the
entire region.• To convince people for individual struggle and to preserve the national resources. • To decrease the multiple cropping on agriculture land in the arid region. • To introduce modern machinery for the cultivation of crops in the arid region.• To encourage usage of natural gas or solar energy instead of petroleum, coal, and
forests. • To increase literacy ratio and community based programs for the awareness of people
regarding climate change.• To revise environmental policy and to make sure Implementation of environmental laws
on national level.
Thank You