Capacity Development for Adaptation to Climate Change in Capacity Development for Adaptation to Climate Change in Asia – Climate Change Analysis Asia – Climate Change Analysis

JFY 2009JFY 2009------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------

Climate Change Projection over Climate Change Projection over Vietnam Simulated by Vietnam Simulated by

a 20 km-mesh MRI-AGCMa 20 km-mesh MRI-AGCM

By Tran Dinh Trong By Tran Dinh Trong

Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and EnvironmentVietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment

OutlineOutline1. Introduction

2. Present-day simulation2. Present-day simulation

2.1 Precipitation verification 2.1 Precipitation verification

2.2 Temperature verification 2.2 Temperature verification

3. Climate change projection3. Climate change projection

3.1 Precipitation3.1 Precipitation

3.2 Temperature3.2 Temperature

3.3 Extreme events3.3 Extreme events

4. Conclusions4. Conclusions

1. Introduction

Why climate change scenarios are important?Why climate change scenarios are important? How to build CC scenarios in this study?How to build CC scenarios in this study? What is MRI-AGCM?What is MRI-AGCM? What is aims of the report?What is aims of the report?

2. Present-day simulation2. Present-day simulation

2.1 Precipitation verification2.1 Precipitation verification::- realistically characteristics over the country in terms of spatial - realistically characteristics over the country in terms of spatial

and temporal distribution.and temporal distribution. - Rainy season: rainfall centers.- Rainy season: rainfall centers.

- seasonal distinction:- seasonal distinction: North: May – Aug.North: May – Aug.

Middle: Aug. – Nov.Middle: Aug. – Nov.

South: May – Nov.South: May – Nov.

- good correlation: in many areas- good correlation: in many areas

- unsatisfied features: in areas where the topography is - unsatisfied features: in areas where the topography is

complicated.complicated.

2.2 Temperature verification:2.2 Temperature verification:Satisfied features over Vietnam generally Satisfied features over Vietnam generally - Distinct seasonal variations: differences between winter and Distinct seasonal variations: differences between winter and

summer summer

North: 5 -10North: 5 -10ooC C

Middle: 3 - 5Middle: 3 - 5ooC C

South: 2 - 3South: 2 - 3ooC C

3. Climate change projections3. Climate change projections

3.1 Precipitation3.1 Precipitation : :

Rainy season:changes is not the same Rainy season:changes is not the same from regions to regionsfrom regions to regions

- Red River delta, Mekong River Delta: Red River delta, Mekong River Delta: +10 +10 ÷÷ +20% +20%

- remaining area: decreaseremaining area: decrease

(Central highland, the South Central) (Central highland, the South Central)

More flood

- Yearly revolution:- Yearly revolution:

early months of rainy early months of rainy season (May, Jun., Aug.): season (May, Jun., Aug.): Generally decreaseGenerally decrease

Late months of rainy season Late months of rainy season (Sep. – Nov.): Generally (Sep. – Nov.): Generally increaseincrease

- Intensity changes: - Intensity changes:

Dry season: Dry season: - Decrease: Decrease:

North mountain region of the North:North mountain region of the North:

<10%<10%

Central Highland, and Central Highland, and

South Central coast : > 20%South Central coast : > 20%

Downstream of Mekong River Delta: Downstream of Mekong River Delta:

10 10 ÷ ÷ 20%20% More droughts

- drizzling rains in North (a special - drizzling rains in North (a special characteristic in Feb., Mar.):characteristic in Feb., Mar.):

MoNRE: MoNRE: DecreaseDecrease

MRI model: MRI model: IncreaseIncrease

3.2 Temperature3.2 Temperature TTavav increases 0.2 – 0.3 increases 0.2 – 0.3ooC/decadeC/decade

South, the Central Highland and the South, the Central Highland and the Northwestern of the north: 2.5 - 3Northwestern of the north: 2.5 - 3ooCC

Remainders: 2-2.5Remainders: 2-2.5ooCC

(almost the North)(almost the North)

→ → South > NorthSouth > North

Increasing rate:Increasing rate:

Sumer: large area of 2.5 to 3Sumer: large area of 2.5 to 3ooC C increaseincrease

Wimter: large area of 2.0 to 2.5Wimter: large area of 2.0 to 2.5ooC C increaseincrease

→ → Summer rate > winter rateSummer rate > winter rate

3.3 Extreme events3.3 Extreme events Rainfall:Rainfall:

CDDCDD

SDII, R5d, R10 change SDII, R5d, R10 change extensively in the countryextensively in the country

Temp.:Temp.:

yearly mean daily maximum yearly mean daily maximum and minimum and minimum temperature increase by temperature increase by 3°C over the country.3°C over the country.

Days with T>35Days with T>35ooC: increase C: increase by 1-15 daysby 1-15 days

Nights with T>25Nights with T>25ooC: C: increase by 20-30 daysincrease by 20-30 days

4. Conclusions4. Conclusions

Model verification:Model verification:- The observed data and model data are quite appropriate The observed data and model data are quite appropriate

in terms of spatial and temporal distribution, especially in terms of spatial and temporal distribution, especially temperaturetemperature

- Areas with complex topography: Need to check more in Areas with complex topography: Need to check more in detail for rainfall.detail for rainfall.

Climate projection:Climate projection:

Rainfall: spatially and temporally varying projection.Rainfall: spatially and temporally varying projection.

- Rainy season: - Rainy season:

+ Increases in RRD, M+ Increases in RRD, MKKRD; decreases in Central RD; decreases in Central

Highland, South Central Coast. Highland, South Central Coast. → more floods in RRD, → more floods in RRD, MMKKRDRD

+ Early months: decrease >< increase: late months+ Early months: decrease >< increase: late months

- Dry season:- Dry season:

+ rainfall deficit in many areas: fall down to 10%-20% in + rainfall deficit in many areas: fall down to 10%-20% in

Central Highland and South Central coastCentral Highland and South Central coast → → more droughtmore drought

Climate projection:Climate projection:

Temperature: Temperature:

- annual average temperature increases in the whole country- annual average temperature increases in the whole country;;

- different rate of warming (RW) in all seasons and regions of - different rate of warming (RW) in all seasons and regions of Vietnam: Vietnam: RW in summer > RW in winterRW in summer > RW in winter

RW in South > RW in NorthRW in South > RW in North

Extreme events: significant spatially heterogeneous change in Extreme events: significant spatially heterogeneous change in

both heavy precipitation and extreme hot eventsboth heavy precipitation and extreme hot events..

- A positive trend is overwhelming a negative trend in terms of - A positive trend is overwhelming a negative trend in terms of heavy rainfall;heavy rainfall;

- Only positive sigh regarding to extreme temperature - Only positive sigh regarding to extreme temperature

Thank for your Thank for your attentionattention