Climate Change Mitigation and Sustainable Development:

A Framework for Integration

John Robinson

CLA, WGIII

July 18, 2001

Purpose of Presentation

• Report on the findings from TAR WGIII and the SRES that relate to the issue of sustainable development

Why consider Sustainable Development (SD) in TAR?

• SD and climate change mitigation (CCM) are linked– SD policies may affect emissions and mitigative

capacity– CCM affects SD prospects

• SAR pointed to connections but didn’t explore them in detail

• Cross-cutting paper on development, equity and sustainability produced

What is Sustainable Development?

• Many definitions but can usefully think of SD in terms of 10 challenges:

- Clean air - Transportation

- Clean water - Housing

- Food - Jobs

- Energy - Waste disposal

- Land use - Health care

• Key is integration across all three domains of SD: social, economic and environmental

Elements of Sustainable Development

Socio-EconomicDevelopment

Paths

Climate Change

Impacts

Emissions

 An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Anthropogenic Climate Change

Mit

igat

ion

Linkages between Climate Change Mitigation and Sustainable Development in WGIII

Development paths

Ancillary benefits(Chapter 2)

(Chapter 1)

(Chapter 10)

(Chapters 7-9)

SD CCM

(Chapters 3-6)

1. Implications of CCM for SD

2. Implications of SD for CCM

3. Integrating CCM and SD Policies

WGIII Findings

SD CCM

SD CCM

SD CCM

1. Implications of Climate Change Mitigation for Sustainable Development

• Climate change mitigation is likely to have significant impacts on the prospects for SD in various regions and sectors– Mitigation will reduce climate change and

other impacts on human and natural systems (“ancillary benefits”)

– Effects of mitigation policies and regimes

I. Unique and Threatened SystemsII. Extreme Climate EventsIII. Distribution of ImpactsIV. Global aggregate impactsV. Large Scale, High Impact Events

Mitigation Limits Climate Change Impacts

Mitigation and Other Environmental Issues

Mitigation Policies and Sustainable Development

• Rate of mitigation affects employment, welfare and intergenerational impacts– Slower mitigation can reduce shock

effects and lower costs if stabilization targets are higher

– Faster mitigation can reduce negative longer-term impacts, induce technological change, and lower long-term costs if stabilization targets are lower

2. Implications of Sustainable Development for Climate Change Mitigation

• Achieving SD goals will reduce emissions and contribute to mitigative capacity– This can be seen by taking a look at the

SRES and post-SRES analyses

Development Paths and Emissions:SRES Baseline Scenarios

A1 A2

B2 B1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

IPCC SRES A2 Scenarios

A2

550

750

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

IPCC SRES A1B Scenarios

450550650

Glo

bal

An

thro

po

gen

ic C

arb

oo

n D

ioxi

de

Em

issi

on

s (G

tC)

A1B

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

IPCC SRES B1 Scenarios

450550

B1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

IPCC SRES A1T Scenarios

A1T

450550650

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

IPCC SRES B2 Scenarios

450550650

B2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

IPCC SRES A1FI Scenarios

4505506

750

A

Mitigation and Development Paths:Comparison of reference (SRES) and

stabilization (post-SRES) scenarios

A1B

B2B1A2

A1FIA1T

3. Integrating Climate Change Mitigation and Sustainable

Development Policies

• Climate change policies may be more effective if integrated into sustainable development goals and policies

Linkages between Climate Change Mitigation and Sustainable Development

•Avoided CC impacts•Costs and distribution of costs•Ancillary benefits •Forestry/agriculture impacts

• Environmental & economic policies • Human and social capital• Infrastructure• Innovation and technology

CCMSDpolicy

CCMpolicySD

Conclusions

• There are strong linkages between CCM and SD

• Preliminary indications suggest that putting CCM in a SD context will improve the prospects for achieving both CCM and SD goals