climate change in portugal: state of the art

Climate change in Port galClimate change in Port galClimate change in Portugal: Climate change in Portugal: State of the artState of the art

Joaquim Flores

Climate change and cities symposiumS b b i hb h d d t ti f h i li tSuburban neighbourhood adaptation for a changing climate (SNACC)

27th April 2010 - UWE Conference and Exhibition CentreFrenchay, Bristol

Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores

• Objective

– Overview of the Portuguese situation in relation to Climate Change:to C ate C a ge

• Mitigation

• Adaptation


• Structure

– Portuguese portrait

– General policy– General policy

– Concrete actions


PORTUGAL t itPORTUGAL: a portrait



Large sea jurisdiction / two Atlantic archipelagos

Source: PNPOT, 2007



Source: PNPOT, 2007


PORTUGAL: a portrait

Source: Statistics Portugal, 2008


PORTUGAL: a portrait

High numbers of sunlight hours per year

Source: Meteo Institute



Low GNP

Source: PNPOT, 2007


Population ageingPopulation ageing

Source: Statistics Portugal, 2008



Population ageing

Source: PNPOT, 2007



High density in the coastcoast

Source: PNPOT, 2007



High density in the coast –energy consumptionenergy consumption

Source: PNPOT, 2007



Land use

Source: PNPOT, 2007



Main risks

Source: PNPOT, 2007



Spatial model

Source: PNPOT, 2007



Public expense with environment: waste e waterPublic expense with environment: waste e water management


Diogo Homem, 1563


• Oporto-1945


• Lisbon-1966


• Emissions


Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) per Capitakg CO2 equivalent

8 00010 00012 000

02 0004 0006 0008 000

EU27

PT

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Source: European Communities, 2010


CO2 Emissions per Capita

8000

10000

0

2000

4000

6000

CO2 per capita (kg/cap) - Portugal

CO2 per capita (kg/cap) EU27CO2 per capita (kg/cap) - EU27 Average



Greenhouse Gases:

- Emissions increased 37% - 1990-2003

- CO2 represents 80% of Greenhouse Gases in Portugal

- From those 50% are from fuel to electricity and cars

B t 1990 2003 CO2 f i 95%- Between 1990-2003 CO2 from cars increase 95%

Source: PNPOT, 2007


• Madeira Island - 20-02-2010

• 42 death• 120 hounded• 200 lost home


• Portugal - 21-04-2010

• Severe weather conditions in localized pointspoints

• Thousands of Euros of prejudiceThousands of Euros of prejudice


• Drought - 2005

• Precipitation 40% above average of last60 years

• 90% of the country affected for several monthsWater s ppl• Water supply

• Agriculture• BiodiversityBiodiversity


• Drought - 2005

• Nasa satellite imagery


• Forest fires - 2005

300.000 ha32-553 fires


• Forest fires - 2005


• Heat wave – 2003

• High temperatures• Low air humidity• 14 days• Interior

• Fires (425.000ha)• Water supply failure

Source: IGP (2003)



Source: Portugal - Ministry of Health (2004)



Source: SIAM (2004)


• Lisbon – EXPO98

• Environmental conscientiousness turning point

• Environmental practice• Environmental academic research• Environmental policy


CIAM – Climate Change Impacts Adaptation and Mitigation Research Group

http://www.siam.fc.ul.pt/CCIAM/


• SIAM and SIAM II – Scenarios, Impacts, d Ad i Mand Adaptation Measures

• http://www.siam.fc.ul.pt/


• SIAM

• Started in the summer of 1999, with funding from the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation (Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian, FCG). Since ( ç , )January of 2000 it was also support by Portuguese Government

• Ended in October 2001 with the publication of the final report in book form


• SIAM II

• Started in January 2002, focusing in case studies.

• Ended in 2006 with the publication of the fi l t i b k ffinal report in book form


• European funding project: CLIMAAT and CLIMAAT II (Interreg)Cli i h A l i I l d• Climat in the Atlantic Islands

• http://www.climaat.angra.uac.pt/


• SIAMSignificant increase in mean temperatures until the end oftemperatures until the end of the XXI


• SIAM

• Significant increase in mean temperatures until the end of the XXI

•• Summer maximum temperature:Summer maximum temperature:

– Portugal mainland +3ºC in coast and +7ºC in the interiorin the interior

– Madeira +3ºC– Azores +2ºC


• SIAM

Global• Global warming


SIAM• SIAM

Si ifi t i i• Significant increase in mean temperatures until the end of the XXI

•• In General:In General:Increase in the intensity and frequency of– Increase in the intensity and frequency of heat waves

– Increase in the number of hot days (temp. above 35ºC)

– Increase in the number of Tropical nights (temp above 20ºC)(temp. above 20 C)

– Decrease in the number of cold days (temp. under 0ºC)


• SIAM

Red ction in• Reduction in rain


• SIAM

R d ti f th i i l i S i• Reduction of the rainy season, mainly in Spring and Autumn (different scenarios forecast a reduction in annual rainfall in the continent by 20-40% of current

)levels).

• A significant reduction (about 30%) in annual g ( )precipitation is also projected for Madeira during this period.

• In the Azores, changes are predicted in the annual rainfall cycle but without substantial impact on total precipitation.


• SIAM• The main impacts include:

• Probable changes in flood and droughtregimes, as well as changes in the quality and g , g q yavailability of water;

Si ifi t i i th i k f fi h d• Significant increase in the risk of fire hazards;

• Considerable increase in air pollution levelsConsiderable increase in air pollution levels and ecological disturbances, which may lead to significant changes in the dynamics of infectious disease transmission as well asinfectious disease transmission as well as regional variations in agricultural productivity;


• SIAM• The main impacts include:

• Increase of the erosion processes and consequently of the flooded areas;q y ;

• Reduction in the yield of irrigated crops.


• SIAM


• Portuguese funding project: PORTCOAST (2004-2007)

• Present and future Portuguese coastal li t d it i t th bi l i lclimate and its impacts on the biological

communities

• http://www.io.fc.ul.pt/zoologia/projectos/portcoast/


• Coastal erosion

• 67% of the Portuguese coast is in erosion risk and lost of land in theerosion risk and lost of land in the next decades due to climate change.

Source: Portcoast, 2008


• Coastal erosion

• CascaisRed ction in more than 50 % of• Reduction in more than 50 % of beach coast until the end of XXI.

• In the most pessimit cenarios, some beaches can reduce their sand inbeaches can reduce their sand in 80%.

Source: SPACCC, 2010


• CLIMATE CHANGE & TOURISM IN PORTUGAL: POTENTIAL IMPACTS & ADAPTATION MEASURES(CLITOP) - 2007( )

• http://www.siam.fc.ul.pt/clitop/


• Conclusions

• ScenariosIncrease in temperature– Increase in temperature

– Reduction of rainfall

• ImpactsImpacts– Droughts– Water– Fire risk– Coastal erosion

Source: SIAM, SIAMII, CLIMAAT, PORTCOAST


• National Commission for Climate Change (1998)C i ã Alt õ Cli áti• Comissão para as Alterações Climáticas

I t t i l C i i i• Intersectorial Commission in Government

• Elaboration of Climate Change National Plans and PoliciesNational Plans and Policies


• National Program for Climate Change (2004 and 2006)P N i l Alt õ• Programa Nacional para as Alterações Climáticas

• http://www.apambiente.pt/politicasambiente/AlteracoesClimaticas/PNAC/Paginas/default.aspx


• National Program for Climate Change (2006)P N i l Alt õ• Programa Nacional para as Alterações Climáticas

• Monitoring PNAC (execution indicators) http://www.cumprirquioto.pt/Home.action

• Quioto Target: less than 27% CFC emissions in relation to 1990 (2008-2012)( )

• 2010 – 5% from target (17,62 Mt CO2e)


National Program for Climate Change (2006)Programa Nacional para as Alterações Climáticasg


• National Program for Climate Change (2006)P N i l Alt õ• Programa Nacional para as Alterações Climáticas

• Energy• Transportation• Emissions• Agriculture• Florest• Florest• Waste


• Portuguese Carbon Fund (2006)• Fundo Português de Carbono

• Greenhouse gases emissions (Emission• Greenhouse gases emissions (Emission Trading System)

• Managing the emissions trade in Portugal

• European Emission Trading System (EU ETSETS


• CO2 Emissions National Plan (2008)• Plano Nacional de Atribuição de Licenças de

Emissão de CO2Emissão de CO2

• http://www.apambiente.pt/Instrumentos/CELE/PNp p pALE/PNALE_II/Paginas/default.aspx

Li i f j i i d• Licensing of major emissions producers


• Climate Change Adaptation National Strategy (2010)E t té i N i l d Ad t ã à Alt õ• Estratégia Nacional de Adaptação às Alterações Climáticas (ENAAC)

• Approved in April 2010

• Scenarios and climat projections for the period 2080-2100, for mainland Portugal pe od 080 00, o a a d o ugaand Islands, Madeira and Azores


• Climate Change Adaptation National Strategy

• The strategy of the strategy:4 objectives:

I f ti d K l d ( it t– Information and Knowledge (necessity to develop solid cientific and thecnical base)

– Reduce the vulnerability and increase the answer capacity

– Involvement of all sectors

– International cooperation


2008-2009Strategic Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change inStrategic Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change in Sintra Municipality

Started in 2008 and ending in 2009 The objective of thisStarted in 2008 and ending in 2009 The objective of this project is to study climate change impacts and adaptation measures on specific sectors, namely, water resources, coastal zones, human health, energy, tourism, forests andcoastal zones, human health, energy, tourism, forests and biodiversity in the Sintra area.

From the CIAM Research Groupp

http://www.siam.fc.ul.pt/siam-sintra/home.php


2009-2010Strategic Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change inStrategic Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change in Cascais Municipality

The objective of this project is to study climate change impacts and adaptation measures on specific sectors, namely, water resources, coastal zones, human health,namely, water resources, coastal zones, human health, energy, tourism, forests, biodiversity and agriculture in the Cascais Municipality.

The impact assessment will allow to strategically plan adaptation as a response to climate change in Cascais.

From the CCIAM Research Group

http://www.siam.fc.ul.pt/PECAC/


2008 – Energy Efficiency National Plan(PNAEE 2015)(PNAEE 2015)


Import DependencyImport Dependency

2007 ( in % )

All fuels Solid fuels Oil Gas

EU27 53,1 41,2 82,6 60,3

PT 82,0 100 98,9 98,7

Source: European Commission 2010


2008 – Energy Efficiency National Plan(PNAEE 2015)(PNAEE 2015)

Programs and measures to achieve energy efficiency in several sectors in relation to final energy consumptionseveral sectors in relation to final energy consumption

- Transport

- Residential ans services

- Industryy

- State

- Behaviour

- taxes

- Funding


• National Electricity Mobility Plan (2008)

• 21 Municipalities


• Target: 1.350 charging points in em 2011

• The national pilot network will be compatible with all electric vehicules

• Slow charging points (six to eight hours from wind energy produced at night)from wind energy produced at night)

F t h i i t (20 t 30 i t i• Fast charging points (20 to 30 minutes in the day)


• Charging points:

• private garages• public access points located at public car

parks• car parks at shopping centers• hotels, airports, gas stations and other

places in those municipalities which have adhered to the pilot schemeadhered to the pilot scheme.


• A pre-paid card charg.e of the mobi.enetwork shall provide access to the supply points discounting the charging valuepoints, discounting the charging value

• This amount includes the electricity• This amount includes the electricityconsumed and payment for the charging service.se ce


• Electric Mobility Local Plan (Municipalities)

• Porto

• 168 slow charching points in the city

• Incentive measures to promote electric mobility in the city


• National Incentive to dismantle old vehicles

• Will be reserved to electric vehicles and high environmental performance vehicles with CO2environmental performance vehicles with CO2 emissions lower than 100 g/km


Lisbon – Expo98

Trigeneration system – Power-Heating-Cooling

15Km of network15Km of network

130 buildings connected (housing, hotels, offices, pavillions, major services)pavillions, major services)

MESAP – Modular Energy System Analysis and Planning (University of Stuttgart)


Lisbon – Expo98

Source: Climaespaço 2006


Lisbon – Expo98

Source: Climaespaço 2007


Oporto – 2010

Thermal Energy Urban NetworkRUTE Project (Rede Urbana de Energia Térmica)

Oporto Historical Centre (Downtown)

Thermal system – Heating-Cooling

Anchor Buildings/services


Oporto – 2010

Thermal Energy Urban NetworkRUTE Project (Rede Urbana de Energia Térmica)


Oporto – 2006RE START Project (European Funding)RE-START Project (European Funding)Pilot Project

XIX BuildingXIX BuildingNatural lighting

Natural ventilation

Support systems


• Smart grids - the future of electric energy di t ib tidistribution

C i ti i th di t ib iti t• Communication in the distribuition system

C i i ( hi h 1 )• Consumption metering (which 15m)

• Energy lost control


• InovCity

• Energy Box• Homes• Industry and services• Public lighting


• Smart grid Pilot Project

• Public/Private partnership

• Instalation of 31 000 energy boxes• Instalation of 31.000 energy boxes

• Comunication with 300 electricity network points in the city

• Will allow «savings on energy consumption and• Will allow «savings on energy consumption and distribution in Portugal»


• Public lighting efficiency

• 4 measures:• Introdution of LED technology – redution in 40% toIntrodution of LED technology redution in 40% to

50% in electricity consumption

• Intensity regulation according to natural light conditions

• Reducing light intensity in the dead hours (2:00-5:00 am) keeping the security levels

• Dynamic management of lighting – adaptation to traffic and human presencetraffic and human presence


2008 – Photovoltaic Solar Central

Solar Central – Amareleja - Moura

Sunny South of Portugal (temperature records in the Summer)

- Capacity to produce 46,41 Megawatts allowing to prevent the emission of 89.000 CO2 ton comparing to fossil productionproduction

- 2.520 Sun followers with 104 solar panels which

- 250 hectares

- The Central will produce 93 Gigawatts/hour per year, p g p y ,enough to 30.000 households consumption

- Is the second in the world - Olmedilla de Alarcon (Spain), with 60 Megawatts of production capacity and 85 Gigawatts/hour per yea


Aguçadoura wave farm – 2008

-Location 5km off the Atlantic coastline of northern Portugal

- Three P1-A Pelamis machines Capacity 2.25 MW (3 x 750kW)

-Status Proven installation of three units on fully i i d i i f d f l fcommissioned site infrastructure and successful export of

power into the local grid.

Th lti l P l i it ki th A d-The multiple Pelamis units making up the Aguçadourawave farm constitute both the world’s first, multi-unit, wave farm and also the first commercial order for wave energy convertersconverters.

- 1st stage – 3 machines – capacity to produce 750 kilowatts (kw) each allowing to average production of 7kilowatts (kw) each, allowing to average production of 7 Gigawatts/hour per year (Gwh).


Parque Eólico do Alto Minho I

Wind Energy Park – 2008

Major wind park in Europe

Windy North of Portugal

Capacity to produce 240 Megawatts and will prevent the emission of 500.000 CO2 ton comparing to fossil

d iproduction

Is now producing electricity for 300.000 households (1,5% f P t ti )of Portuguese energy consumption)

- 120 wind towers

-The Central will produce 530 Gigawatts/hour per year

- Portugal wind energy:- Portugal wind energy:- From 500 megawatts in 2005 to 5.000 in 2010


EU27 - 2007Renewables


Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresEU27 - 2007Renewables3,14% of EU27



Share of electricity from renewable energy sources in total electricity

8080Share of electricity from renewable energy sources in total electricity consumption (%) - EU27

Share of electricity from renewable energy sources in total electricity consumption (%) - EU27 (2009)

50

60

70

50

60

70

2010 OBJECTIVE

30

40

50

30

40

50 2010 OBJECTIVE2007 Total ShareEU27 OBJECTIVE

0

10

20

0

10

20

00

EU

27 BE BG C

Z

DK

DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU

MT NL

AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK



Sources of EnergyRenewables – 31,8%

Source: EDP, 2010


Thank You!

Joaquim FloresJoaquim Flores

[email protected]

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