Slide 1

CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA POST-COPENHAGEN: WHAT IS AT STAKE? Simon Carter Program Manager, Climate Change Adaptation International Development Research Centre Nov. 26, th 2009

Slide 2

Outline of talk How is Africa affected by climate change? Can Africa adapt to climate change? How? What is needed to support adaptation?

Slide 3

Why are African nations asking for developed countries to commit to deeper emissions cuts? Reduction of GHG by developed countries of 40% compared to 1990, by 2020 How is Africa affected by climate change?

Slide 4

Climate change is happening now Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007

Slide 5

What people are experiencing and less predictable Extreme and unpredictable weather Rising sea levels Shrinking water resources Soil degradation Livelihood stress Physical insecurity Food insecurity Getting hotter and drier

Slide 6

Increasing impacts: drought in Kenya Source: Oxfam (2006): Making the case. A national drought contingency fund for Kenya. 2009 Famine Early Warning System. Numbers of people directly affected by drought

Slide 7

Emissions are increasing faster than anticipated Source: Raupach et al, 2007

Slide 8

Future scenarios and possible impacts of continued emissions growth Can only be estimated, using models Multiple models can be compared to identify robust patterns Very conservative (eg IPCC scenarios)

Slide 9

Five degrees warmer? Percentage change in length of growing period, 2090s compared with present, for the average of the three AR4 SRES scenarios scaled to a global temperature increase of 5C, means of 14 GCMs. CropYield (kg per ha) % Yield Change 2000s 2090s +5C Maize954706-26 Beans656305-54 B. decumbens 13861368 Source: Thornton and Jones, 2009

Slide 10

(Source IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Working Group II Chapter 9) Increased exposure to water stress by 2055

Slide 11

Can Africa adapt? Not to five degrees of warming Uncertainty is very great pace, extent, costs Underlying, non-climatic factors limit peoples adaptive capacity limited success in addressing these factors No solutions paradigm shift needed

Slide 12

People are adapting - and we know a lot about how to support their efforts

Slide 13

Vulnerability: Who? Where? To what?

Slide 14

Existing livelihoods are changing

Slide 15

Adaptation can be enhanced, in familiar ways

Slide 16

Launched 2006 by DFID & IDRC CAD $65 million 46 projects across continent Action research and capacity building Climate Change Adaptation in Africa program (CCAA)

Slide 17

Capacity development through Participatory Action Research Desired conditions Present conditions Planning: Define desired conditions and actions to achieve them Monitoring: describe present conditions and follow implementation of actions Reflection/evaluation: compare present conditions to the desired ones, assess the value and effectiveness of actions Learning: Adjust actions to reach desired conditions more effectively; gaining knowledge through iteration Action, monitoring Reflection, evaluation Planning Learning

Slide 18

Adapting to drought in northern Kenya

Slide 19

Strengthening adaptive capacity in Rural Benin

Slide 20

Felix Levoavy, farmer, member of the local reflection group in Tampolo, region of Analanrifo, Madagascar Adapting to change in Madagascar

Slide 21

Paulette Marisoa, farmer, member of the local reflection group in Tampolo, region of Analanrifo, Madagascar

Slide 22