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November 20, 2008
California Environmental Protection Agency
California Air Resources Board
Climate Change Impacts on California
Scenario Assessment Findings of the Climate
Action Team
Achieving 2050 Target is Essential
CO2 TARGET400-450 ppm
2050 TARGET20% of 1990 EMISSIONS
CATASTROPHIC SEA LEVEL RISE AT ~2 ºC
OBSERVED WARMING0.7 ºC ATMOSPHERE + 0.6 ºC OCEANS = 1.3 ºC
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
CO
2 E
mis
sion
(G
igat
ons
CO
2 E
/yea
r)
BAU FossilFuel
Actual emissions
Global CO 2 Emissions Growth Accelerating
IPCC LowestEmission Scenario
80% reductionfor climate
stabilization
2-3% / year
15
18
21
24
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
1% / year
Global Fossil Fuel Emission (Gigatons CO2E/year)
Global CO 2 Emissions Growth Accelerating
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
CO
2 E
mis
sion
(G
igat
ons
CO
2E/y
ear) BAU Fossil
Fuel
Actual emissions
IPCC LowestEmission Scenario
80% reduction & climate
stabilization
Cal/EPA-OEHHA, “Environmental Protection Indicators for California” (2002), www.oehha.ca.gov/multimedia/epic/Epicreport.htmlWesterling et al., “Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity”, Science (2006)
California Climate Impactsover the past 100 years
0
2
8
7
1
9
10
3
4
1.3ºF (0.7°C) higher temperatures
7 inch sea level rise
12% decrease in fraction of runoff between April
and July
snowmelt and spring blooms advanced
2 days/decade since 1955
4-fold increase in wildfire frequency (over 34 years)
678910
0
4
3
2
5
1
ºF
11°F
By Governor Executive Order(2005)
Commissioned this peer-reviewed study (released in March 2006) of potential climate change impacts, and
Provided key scientific input to California’s landmark greenhouse gas reduction legislation, AB 32
www.climatechange.ca.gov
California Climate Change Scenarios
Assessment
Builds on 2006 study to:
1. Improve assessment of climate change impacts
2. Translate impacts into costs
3. Develop adaptation strategies
2008 Climate Action Team Scenarios Assessment
(work in progress)
Medium Warming Range
(5.5 – 8 °F)
6
7
0
2
1
Projected Climate Impacts on California, 2070-2099 (as compared with 1961-1990 )
Higher Warming Range
(8 – 10.5 °F)
8
9
10
Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to California (2006), www.climatechange.ca.gov
4
3
5
Lower Warming Range
(3 –––– 5.5 °F)
ºF
SierraSnowpack
Sea Level
Energy Demand
30-60% loss
70-80% loss
90% loss
6-14”
14-22”
22-30”
3-6%
10%
20%
Decrease in Sierra Nevada Snowpack2070-2099
Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to California (2006), www.climatechange.ca.gov
April 1 snow water equivalent (inches)~0 453015
Medium Warming RangeLower Warming RangeHistorical Average (1961-1990)
2100 projected increase of 140 cm (55 inches)
in mean sea level
Coastline Changes
2050
2050 Mission Beach Coastal Inundation in San Diego
Messner et al. (2008). Climate Change Related Impacts in the San Diego by 2050. Scripps Institute of Oceanography, PIERClimate Change Research Center, Draft white paper, CEC-500-2008.
Present
Optimal
Marginal
Impaired
Wine Country
Cool Coast
Central Coast
Central Valley
1961-1990 Levels
Lower Warming 3-5.5°°°° F
Medium Warming 5.5-8°°°°F
Higher Warming 8-10.5°°°°F
Decreasing Wine Grape Quality,
2070-2099
Increasing EmissionsHayhoe et al. “Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California”, PNAS (2004)
Public Health Concerns
Air QualityHeat Extremes
Wild Fire SmokeVulnerable Populations
Hotter Days Lead to Higher Emissions and More Smog
Fresno, 2003-2006Riverside, 2003-2006
o F)
California Ozone Standard
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
40 60 80 100 120
Daily Maximum Temperature (
Max
imum
8-h
r A
vera
ge O
zone
(pp
b)
Daily Maximum Temperature ( F)o
California OzoneStandard
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
40 60 80 100 120
Max
imum
8-h
r A
vera
ge O
zone
(ppb
)
N. Motallebi (2008) Cal/EPA
Projected Ozone Response to Climate - 2050
Steiner et al., “Influence of future climate and emissions on regional air quality in California”, JGR (2006)Millstein D.E. and R. A. Harley (2008) Impact of Climate Change on Photochemical Air Pollution in Southern California. To be submitted to Journal of Geophysical Research.
Climate Penalty
CombinedEffects
-20
-10
0
10
20
% C
hang
e in
Ozo
neFresno Sacramento Bay Area South Coast
OzonePrecursorEmissionReduction
Climate Change Hotspots in U.S.
Diffenbaugh, N. S., et al. (2008). Climate change hotspots in the United States, Geophys. Res. Lett.
Increase in Wildfires
Westerling and Bryant, “Climate change and wildfire in and around California:Fire modeling and loss modeling” (2006), www.climatechange.ca.gov
LOWER WARMING RANGE
MEDIUM WARMING RANGE
2035-2064 2070-2099
0
30
60
% C
HA
NG
E IN
EX
PE
CT
ED
MIN
IMU
MN
UM
BE
R O
F L
AR
GE
FIR
ES
PE
R Y
EA
R
• Cost of unmitigated climate change� 2.5 to 5% of global economic
product in 2100 � For California: $270 to $540 billion
in 2100• Effective adaptation can limit the cost
of climate change impacts
Economic Impacts of Climate Change
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
US
CO
2em
issi
ons
(Gig
aton
s C
O2
E/y
ear)
3.2% year
450 ppm CO 2 prompt
8.2% year
450 ppm CO 2 delay
Delay Requires Steep Emission Reductions
Doniger et al., “An Ambitious, Centrist Approach to Global Warming Legislation”, Science (2006)
SummaryOverwhelming evidence human activities changing Earth’s climate
California already affected by climate change
Climate change increases air pollution control requirements
Early action makes targets easier to attain
Acknowledgments
Scientists from:• Scripps Institution of
Oceanography• UC Berkeley• UC Davis• UC Santa Barbara• Santa Clara University• LBNL, LLNL• US Forest Service• Oregon State University• Union of Concerned
Scientists
State Agencies: • CEC PIER Program• Cal/EPA• Cal/Trans• CARB• CDF• CDFA• DPH• DWR• OEHHA• Resources