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Climate Change impacts and solutions for

India

Sanjay Vashist

Climate Action Network South Asia

Training for Trainers on Environment Audit

iCED, Jaipur

May 2015

Energy budget and greenhouse effect

The delicate balance

between the incoming short

wave (ultra violet) radiation

and the outgoing long wave

(infra red) radiation

maintains earth’s surface

temperature at a level

sufficient to support life on

the planet

Some gases (called greenhouse gases) present in the earth’s

atmosphere (in trace amounts) trap the outgoing radiation, raising

the temperature of the earth’s surface – the phenomenon is

commonly known as greenhouse effect

Causes of climate change

GHG emissions from

• Industrialization

• Urbanization

• Deforestation

• Land use changes

The targets cover emissions of the six main

greenhouse gases:

• Carbon dioxide (CO2);

• Methane (CH4);

• Nitrous oxide (N2O);

• Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs);

• Perfluorocarbons (PFCs); and

• Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)

Montreal Protocol

GHGs affected by human activities

CO2 CH4 N2O HFC-23

Pre-industrial

concentration

About 290 ppm About 700 ppb About 270 ppb Zero

Concentration in

1998

365 ppm 1745 ppb 314 ppb 14 ppt

Rate of

concentration

change

1.5 ppm/yr 7.0 ppb/yra 0.8 ppb/yr 0.55 ppt/yr

Atmospheric

lifetime

5 to 200 yr 12 yr 114 yr 260 yr

Source: climate change 2001, The Scientific Basis, Technical Summary of the Working

Group/Report 400 ppm in 2014

Science of Climate Change

Highlights of AR 5 (Science)…

Global changes- estimated warming of 0.85 degrees Celsius

since 1880, with the fastest rate of warming in the Arctic.

Sea- level rise- Greater that 66% chance that the Arctic Ocean

will be ice free during a greater part of the summer before

2050 under a high emission scenario.

Land based food systems- climate change to affect food

security in areas where most of the world’s food production

occurs.

Temperature rise- average annual temperatures could rise

by more than 2°C over land in most of South Asia by the

mid-21st century and exceed 3°C under a high emissions

scenario.

Highlights of AR 5 (Science)…

Rainfall trends- by mid-21st century southern areas of Asia

will experience more rainfall. Rainfall will be more

extreme near the centres of tropical cyclones making

landfall in South Asia.

Sea level rise- magnitude of sea level rise by the century’s

end implies increased risks for South Asia’s coastal

settlements particularly if combined with changes in

cyclone frequency or intensity.

Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections Projected Precipitation change in South Asia…

Impacts of 1-m sea level rise

TERI (1996)

TERI

Gangotri Glacier Receding

April 2008

Imja Glacial lake

Imja Glacial lake

Observed Impacts…

Ecosystems under stress …

Glacial melt with increased threat of GLOF

Agriculture productivity diminishing

Ocean acidification

7600 KMs - Coastal degradation

Increased desertification reducing areas under

cultivation

Migration Income/Economy Livelihoods

Global Goals to address Climate

Change ?

Key impacts as a function of increasing global

average temperature change

Source of GHGs…

Countries Responsible…

23

A viable climate regime must…

Mitigation: emergency climate stabilization Adaptation: inevitable, increasingly urgent While safeguarding a right to development

Global emissions profile…

Estimated at 50.1 GtCO2e per year (range: 45.6–54.6

GtCO2e per year. Median 48.8 GtCO2e)

Required emission levels in 2020 to meet targets are 44

GtCO2e per year

BAU emission levels in 2020 estimated to be 59

GtCO2e per year

Emission reduction pledges and commitments amount

to 3–7 GtCO2e per year.

Still a gap of 8 GtCO2e per year to be committed for 2

degree World

UNEP GAP report

Countries with pledges…

Australia, China, the European Union, India and the

Russian Federation are on track to meet their targets

Canada, Japan, Mexico and the U.S. and perhaps

South Korea are not on track to meet their targets

Not enough information available on Brazil, Indonesia

and South Africa

INDCs submitted by – EU 27, Russia, Mexico, USA,

Canada, Gambia

Greenhouse Development Rights –

to calculate responsibility to ACT !

27

Income and Capacity income distributions (relative to a “development threshold”)

Emissions and Responsibility fossil CO2 (since 1990) (showing portion defined as “responsibility”)

28

Population

%

Income

($/capita)

Capacity

%

Responsibility

%

RCI

(obligations)

%

EU 27 7.3 30,472 28.8 22.6 25.7

- EU 15 5.8 33,754 26.1 19.8 22.9

- EU +12 1.5 17,708 2.7 2.8 2.7

Norway 0.07 52,406 0.54 0.26 0.40

United States 4.5 45,640 29.7 36.4 33.1

China 19.7 5,899 5.8 5.2 5.5

India 17.2 2,818 0.66 0.30 0.48

South Africa 0.7 10,117 0.6 1.3 1.0

LDCs 11.7 1,274 0.11 0.04 0.07

Annex I 18.7 30,924 75.8 78.0 76.9

Non-Annex I 81.3 5,096 24.2 22.0 23.1

High Income 15.5 36,488 76.9 77.9 77.4

Middle Income 63.3 6,226 22.9 21.9 22.4

Low Income 21.2 1,599 0.2 0.2 0.2

World 100% 9,929 100 % 100 % 100 %

29

National obligations based on national “capacity” and “responsibility”

National obligations based on capacity and responsibility

2010 2020 2030

Population

(% of global)

GDP per capita

($US PPP)

Capacity

(% of global)

Responsibility

(% of global)

RCI

(% of

global)

RCI

(% of

global)

RCI

(% of

global)

EU 27 7.3 30,472 28.8 22.6 25.7 22.9 19.6

- EU 15 5.8 33,754 26.1 19.8 22.9 19.9 16.7

- EU +12 1.5 17,708 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0 3.0

Switzerland 0.11 39,181 0.60 0.27 0.44 0.37 0.30

United states 4.5 45,640 29.7 36.4 33.1 29.1 25.5

Japan 1.9 33,422 8.3 7.3 7.8 6.6 5.5

Russia 2.0 15,031 2.7 4.9 3.8 4.3 4.6

China 19.7 5,899 5.8 5.2 5.5 10.4 15.2

India 17.2 2,818 0.66 0.30 0.5 1.2 2.3

South Africa 0.7 10,117 0.6 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.2

Mexico 1.6 12,408 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.5

LDCs 11.7 1,274 0.11 0.04 0.07 0.10 0.12

Annex I 18.7 30,924 75.8 78.0 77 69 61

Non-Annex I 81.3 5,096 24.2 22.0 23 31 39

High Income 15.5 36,488 76.9 77.9 77 69 61

Middle Income 63.3 6,226 22.9 21.9 22 30 38

Low Income 21.2 1,599 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5

World 100% 9,929 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 %

Elements to address Climate

Change !

If fail to meet emission targets…

Costs of adaptation will increase

Currently available technologies will not be sufficient

Deployment of technologies to achieve negative

emissions or control solar radiation will be required.

These technologies could have significant

environmental impacts

Issues to be dealt…

Mitigation - Stabilise global average far below 2

degree C

Adaptation to enhance resilience on life supporting

ecosystems and infrastructure

Adequate response to climate induced Loss and

Damage cases

Climate Finance to scale up RE and Adaptation

measures

Technology transfer

Global Policy on Climate Change !

Post 2020…

Work stream 1 : decides that [the ADP] shall plan its

work …, including, inter alia, on mitigation,

adaptation, finance, technology development and

transfer, transparency of action and support, and

capacity-building, drawing upon submissions from

Parties and relevant technical, social and economic

information and expertise – Post 2020

Post 2020…

Must be based on science and equity;

Participation by all Parties is key;

Must be flexible and sensitive to national

circumstances;

Must be environmentally effective;

Must strengthen international rules-based

system;

Must address all elements of paragraph 5 of

1/CP.17 (Mitigation, Adaptation, Finance,

Technology, Transparency of Actions and

Support, Capacity Building)

Pre 2020…

• Work stream 2 : Further decides that the process shall raise the level of ambition and shall be informed, inter alia, by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the outcomes of the 2013– 2015 review and the work of the subsidiary bodies

• Decides to launch a work plan on enhancing mitigation ambition to identify and to explore options for a range of actions that can close the ambition gap with a view to ensuring the highest possible mitigation efforts by all Parties – Pre 2020

INDCs … Countries INDCs Adequacy

Switzerland 50% below 1990 by 2030 Medium

EU 27 at least 40% domestic below 1990 by

2030 Medium

Norway Economy-wide target by at least 40% below 1990 by 2030 Medium

Mexico unconditional target of 22%

greenhouse gas reductions below

baseline in 2030 Medium

USA 26-28% cut from 2005 levels by 2030 Medium

Russia only 6–11% below 1990 Inadequate

China

peaking CO2 emissions in 2030 at the

latest, and increase the share of non-

fossil fuels to 20% of primary energy

demand Medium

Japan emissions reduction target of 20%

below 2013 emission levels by 2030 Inadequate

Source: Climate tracker

India on Climate Change !

However…

Per-capita income at the exchange rate in current dollars in 2008: $1,016

The proportion of the population below a modest poverty line: 27%

300 million individuals living in abject poverty

55 percent of the workforce dependent on agriculture, which contributes less than 18 percent of the GDP

The proportion of households without an electricity connection: 40 percent

400 million individuals without electricity

Water shortages: endemic

The BIG Challenges Facing India

Pull the remaining poor out of abject poverty

Provide humane existence to all Bring electricity and water to all

Give secure shelters that can withstand heat, floods and heavy rains

Move the workforce out of agriculture into industry and services

In other words: Sustain the current rapid growth for another two to three decades

Historic Emissions…

1850-2002 United States: 29.3%

EU-25: 26.5%

Russia: 8.1%

China: 7.6%

Japan: 4.1%

India: 2.2% Source: Baumert, Kevin A; Tim Herzog, Jonathan Pershing (2005-

12). Navigating the Numbers: Greenhouse Gas Data and International Climate Policy

http://www.wri.org/publication/navigating-the-numbers

http://www.wri.org/publication/navigating-the-numbers

Sources in India…

NAPCC 8 Missions… Mission Objective Responsible Entity

National Solar Mission

20,000 MW of solar power by 2020

Ministry of New & Renewable Energy

National Mission for

Enhanced Energy Efficiency

10,000 MW of EE savings by 2020

Ministry of Power


Sustainable Habitat

EE in residential and commercial buildings,

public transport, Solid waste management

Ministry of Urban

Development

National Water Mission

Water conservation, river basin

management

Ministry of Water

Resources


Sustaining the Himalayan

Ecosystem

Conservation and adaptation practices,

glacial monitoring

Ministry of Science &

Technology

National Mission for a Green

India

6 mn hectares of afforestation over

degraded

forest lands by the end of 12th Plan

Ministry of Environment &

Forests


Sustainable Agriculture

Drought proofing, risk management,

agricultural research

Ministry of Agriculture

National Mission on

Strategic Knowledge for

Climate Change

Vulnerability assessment, Research &

observation, data management

Ministry of Science &

Technology

Country’s Preparedness…

All States has SAPCC Prepared

Mobilising Climate Finance for Adaptation

Incentives and Subsidies for Renewable Energy

Options

Third National Communications to UNFCCC

Tracking India action…

India @UNFCCC…

Positioned itself in BASIC group (emerging

economies) and also as Like Minded Group

Supports Kyoto Protocol type of architecture

(legally binding and committed)

Demands Equity principles to be basis of Post

2020 Climate deal

But is still to put forth any equity proposal

Committed to work towards Post 2020 deal,

where all countries will be legally binded

Have supported poor developing countries on

Loss and Damage positions

Have prioritised LDCs and Africa for short term

finance of 30 billion

Positioned to achieve relaxation on IPR to

facilitate technology transfer from West to East

Industrialised countries should raise its Ambition

in pre 2020

Public finance to GCF

India @UNFCCC…

SAPCC drafted in most States

Institutionally Ready to directly access International

Climate funds (through NABARD)

Prioritising Adaptation in National Policies

Carbon Tax as ‘Coal Cess’ - Mobilising finance from

domestic sources (17000 Cr by 2014)

8 Missions under implementation

20-25% Energy Reduction targets

Perform – Achieve – Trade Scheme in action

175 GW RE by 2022 (100 GW Solar; 60 GW Wind;

10 GW Hydro and 5 GW Biomass)

Adaptation Fund of 150 Crore

India @Home…

Post 2020, India need to put its new targets on

emission reductions / energy intensity reduction

targets. (INDC)

Role of Private Finance in GCF and domestic

climate finance architecture

Mobilising Climate finance for SAPCC

Draft and negotiate for Equity Framework to

review global pledges in UNFCCC

MRV / ICA architecture for Uni-lateral Mitigation

actions

Homework to be carried out…

India’s INDCs !

Principles… INDCs is an opportunity rather than burden !

Should be able to drive country’s development

agenda forward

Cumulative INDCs should be able to achieve far

below 2 degree C temperature goal

Should be about own responsibility and not others

burden. Thus ‘Equity and CBDR’ need to be the

basis

What ever the mitigation contribution type, INDC

should clearly present GHG reductions achieved by

proposed contributions

Should be able to build ‘Resilience’ of vulnerable

sectors

Operationalising Equity…

• Equitable Shares need to be calculated on –

• Adequacy i.e. 2 degree C temperature goal

• Responsibility – historic and future

• Capacity – GDP, technology and finance

• Adaptation Needs – Vulnerability

• Development Needs

Content of INDC (Adaptation) …

Adaptation Needs – collective responsibility of the

global community

• Countries with greater capability and

responsibility must assist

• National vision on adaptation and climate

resilience

• Analysis of vulnerable sectors: People,

ecosystems, institutions

• Identification of adaptation gaps and needs for

effective implementation of adaptation

• Parties should not table INDCs on adaptation as a

Substitute for mitigation contributions

• ‘Should represent a progression beyond the

current undertaking of that Party’… Lima Call of

Action

• Various estimates

• PBL study – 19% below BAU

• GDR – 6.7% below BAU

• Indian GHG emissions could be in the range of

approximately 4.2 to 4.7 GtCO2e in 2030

• Mitigation contribution could be in either economy

wide or specific sectoral targets, such as, energy

efficiency; solid waste management; RE target;

REDD;

Content of INDC (Mitigation) …

Supported / Unsupported…

Should present two part mitigation contribution

Unsupported - in line with equity and

CBDR&RC

Supported

Should be very ambitious, so that can gain

maximum in terms of self reliance on energy

sources

enables faster decoupling of growth and GHG

emissions

Green Climate Fund: Background Proposed in Copenhagen COP

Established in Cancun 2010

Kitty of 100 Billion

Headquarter in Songdo, South Korea

Governed by Board of balance of developed and developing countries

Disbursement through Direct access and Multi-lateral Organisations

50% for Adaptation and 50% for Mitigation

NDA-NIE-Executing agencies

Objective- Expected to become the primary multilateral channel for large-scale financing both for mitigation and adaptation actions. Objective is to promote the paradigm shift towards low-emission and climate-resilient development pathways by providing support to developing countries to limit or reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the impacts of climate change,

Key Design Features in the Governing Instrument

The Fund is accountable to and functions under the guidance of the COP

All developing countries are eligible to receive resources from the Fund.

The Fund will provide simplified and improved access to funding,

including ‘direct access.’ The Board will consider additional modalities

that further enhance direct access and country ownership.

The Fund will have thematic funding windows. Initially the Fund will

have windows for adaptation and mitigation and resources to balanced

across the two.

The Fund will have a private sector facility that enables it to directly and

indirectly finance private sector mitigation and adaptation activities

The Board will develop, manage and oversee an accreditation process

for all implementing entities based on specific accreditation criteria that

reflect the Fund’s fiduciary principles and standards and environmental

and social safeguards.

The Board will develop mechanisms to promote the input and

participation of stakeholders, including private-sector actors, civil society

organizations, vulnerable groups, women and indigenous peoples.

Institutions/Bodies Needed to enable access to

GCF Resources National Designated Authority’ means

an authority designated by a national

government to recommend to the Board

funding proposals in the context of national

climate strategies and plans, including

through consultation processes.

Implementing Entities’ means the

national entities and multilateral

organizations that have been accredited

by the GCF Board as meeting its criteria

for accessing funding in order to

implement eligible activities approved by

the GCF

Executing Entities’ means organizations

that execute eligible activities supported by

the GCF under the oversight of accredited

Implementing or Funding Entities

Capitalised GCF…

Financial Management and integrity

Financial Management and Integrity

Legal Status

Financial Statements and Audit Requirements

Internal Control Framework

Preparation of Business Plans and Budgets

Legal Status

1. Documents providing clear demonstration of legal status

and mandate

a. Provide separate letter confirming legal status if

necessary

2. List of foreign loan/donor funds handled over the last 2

years

3. Clarity or legal opinion that the applicant by virtue of its

enabling legislation has no restriction to do work as a

National Implementing Entity (NIE)


1. Audited Financial Statements of the Entity

2. External Auditor Reports with management comments

and responses

3. Audit Committee's Terms of Reference and agenda

and minutes of meetings

4. Name and brief description of accounting package

used


5. Policy/charter and other published documents (like

manuals) that outline the entity’s internal auditing

function

6. Copies of internal audit plans for last 2 years with

status of audits carried out

7. List of internal audit reports of last 2 years and sample

reports

8. Management response and action taken on internal

audit reports


1. Policy or other published document that outlines the

entity's control framework

2. Procedures describing the payment/ disbursement

system with particular reference to project payments/

disbursements


Objective of an Internal Control Framework

The organization has in place systems for internal

control over operational and financial matters which

provide reasonable assurance to all stakeholders that

transactions within the organization are:

Undertaken in accordance with management policy

and authority

Assets are protected against material loss or

unauthorized acquisition, use or disposition

Contd .. . 2


Objective of an Internal Control Framework

The organization has in place systems for internal

control over operational and financial matters which

provide reasonable assurance to all stakeholders that

transactions within the organization are:

All transactions are properly authorized and

recorded

Environmental and other organizational risks are

systematically and regularly identified

Action to handle the risks is planned, implemented

and reviewed


Demonstration of an effective Internal Control

Framework (ICF) Should include:

Documented organisational structure and division of

responsibility with reference to internal control

Established policies and procedures undertaken in

accordance with management policy and authority

Oversight/audit system that monitors the operation

of the internal control system and reports findings

and recommendations to the top management. This

could be the Audit Committee

Contd … 2


Demonstration of an effective Internal Control

Framework (ICF) must include:

System for top management to ensure that actions

are planned and implemented based on the findings

and recommendations of the oversight system

Annual public statement signed by Chief Executive

Officer describing the ICF and certifying that it

operates satisfactorily

Preparation of Business Plans and Budgets

1. Long Term Strategy/Business plans and/or Financial

Projections for the next 3 to 5 years

2. Annual budgets for the organization or entities within it

3. End of calendar year/fiscal year or periodical budget

vs actual report with analysis of variations for the

Entity’s expenditures

Sanjay Vashist

Climate Action Network South Asia

[email protected]

@sanjayvashist15

mailto:[email protected]