climate change: energy, technology, equity,...

Climate Change:Climate Change:

Energy, technology, equity, timingEnergy, technology, equity, timing……

March 29, 2007March 29, 2007

AOSS 605AOSS 605

Rosina Bierbaum Dean and Professor

World Primary Energy Supply by Source, 1850-1997

T changes for 2x CO2The two globes summarize computer simulations to compare the warming expected under a doubling of CO2

from the pre-industrial level with the warming expected from a quadrupling.

Note that N hemisphere mid-continent average warming in the 4xCO2

world is 15-25°F!

This is a roasted world.

ENERGY & ECONOMY BY INCOME CLASS, 2000TRANSI-

POOR TION RICH _____ _____ _____

POPULATION, billions 4.1 1.2 0.8GDP, trillion $ (ppp-corrected) 11 11 23INDUSTRIAL ENERGY, terawatts 2.9 3.2 6.3TRADITIONAL ENERGY, terawatts 1.4 0.2 0.2

per personGDP, thousand $ 2.7 9.2 29TOTAL ENERGY, kilowatts 1.0 2.8 8.1

[poor = <$5k/pers-yr, transition = $5k-20k, rich = >$20k]

ppp-corrected means GDPs in different currencies have been convertedto US dollars using purchasing power parities, not market exchange rates

Energy-related CO2

emissions

World CO2

emissions to 2030 from fuels

US EIA, International Energy Outlook 2006

U.S.

WorldAverage

The multiple aims of energy strategy

ECONOMIC AIMS

• provide reliable heat, fuel, & electricity for basic needs & economic growth

• limit consumer costs of energy

• limit cost & vulnerability from energy imports

The multiple aims (continued)

ENVIRONMENTAL AIMS

• improve urban and regional air quality

• avoid nuclear-reactor accidents & waste-mgmt mishaps

• limit impacts of energy development on fragile ecosystems

• limit energy-supply impacts on global climate

The multiple aims (concluded)

NATIONAL- & INTERNATIONAL-SECURITY AIMS

• minimize dangers of conflict over oil & gas resources

• avoid spread of nuclear weapons from nuclear energy

• reduce vulnerability of energy systems to terrorist attack

• avoid energy blunders that perpetuate or create deprivation

Why energy strategy is difficult

• The aims are often in tension with each other.

• There’s no technological silver bullet.

Total = 17,450 billion kWh

World electricity supply by source

About 1/3 of primary energy is used to generate electricity, and 2/3 of this comes from fossil fuels

Other renewable

2004

USA, China, India Comparisons, 2005USA China India

Population, millions

297 1306 1100

GDP/pers, 2005$ (ppp)

42000

7300 3700

Total energy supply, EJ

106 80 28

Oil consumption, EJ

42 15 5

Oil imports, Mb/d

12 3.4 1.7

Electricity generation, TWh 4200 2500 700

Electricity share from coal 50% 80% 70%

C emitted in CO2

, MtC

1700 1400 300 ppp = at purchasing-power parity, EJ = exajoules, TWh = terawatt-hours, MtC

= megatons of carbon in CO2

. Total energy supply includes biomass fuels. Electricity generation is gross, not net.

For world figures, see the accompanying handout.

Business-as-usual (BAU) forecasts to 20302005 2030

Primary energy, exajoules

World

514 750

United States

106

150

China

80 140

Electricity, trillion kWh

World

17.3 30

United States 4.0 6.0

China 2.4 4.8

World oil use by sector, 2003-2030

EIA, International Energy Outlook 2006

Transport continues to dominate.

Coal-fired capacity forecasts to 2030

Actual and projected coal-fired capacity, GWe

USA China India World

2003 310 239 67 1120

2010 319 348 95 1300

2020 345 531 140 1600

2030 457 785 161 2000

Source: US EIA, International Energy Outlook 2006

Slowing the rate of climate change by 2100 requires significant reductions in CO2

and CH4

emissions

Future emissions will be the product of four terms:Future emissions will be the product of four terms:

•• The global populationThe global population RisingRising

•• Energy use per person Energy use per person RisingRising

(related to standard of living)(related to standard of living)

•• Fraction of energy comingFraction of energy coming Depends on choiceDepends on choice

from fossil fuelsfrom fossil fuels

of technology of technology

•• Amount of carbon from fossilAmount of carbon from fossil Will rise if go to coal, Will rise if go to coal,

fuel generation of energyfuel generation of energy

unless sequesterunless sequester

Under continuation of BAU

• World use of primary energy reaches 2.5 times the 2000 level by 2050 and 4 times the 2000 level by 2100.

• World electricity generation reaches 5 times the 2000 level by 2100.

• World CO2 emissions reach 3 times the 2000 level by 2100.

Is there a problem with this?

The problem is not

“running out”

of energy

Some mid-range estimates of world energy resources. Units are terawatt- years (TWy). Total world energy use is ~15 TWy/year.

OIL & GAS, CONVENTIONAL 1,000UNCONVENTIONAL OIL & GAS (excluding clathrates) 2,000COAL 5,000METHANE CLATHRATES 20,000OIL SHALE 30,000

URANIUM in conventional reactors 2,000...in breeder reactors 2,000,000

FUSION (if the technology succeeds) 250,000,000,000

RENEWABLE ENERGY (available energy per year)sunlight on land 30,000energy in the wind 2,000energy captured by photosynthesis 120

Nor is the problem running out of money Projected capital investment for energy supply 2001-2030

This is under 1% of projected GWP and only about 5% of projected

world investment. (But it could reach 15% of investment in developing

countries.)

International Energy Agency 2005

• cost minimization vs. modernization, increased robustness & reliability, environmental improvements, energy security

• increased domestic fossil-fuel production (for security) vs. protection of fragile ecosystems

• increased nuclear-energy production (for greenhouse- gas abatement) vs. reducing risks of nuclear accidents & terrorism

Real problem: tensions among energy- policy aims

Real problem: No “silver bullet”

( No known energy option is free of question marks)

• conventional oil & gas… not enough resources?• coal, tar sands, oil shale… not enough atmosphere?• biomass… not enough land?• wind & hydro… not enough good sites?• photovoltaics… too expensive?• nuclear fission… too unforgiving?• nuclear fusion… too difficult?• hydrogen… energy to make it?

means to store it? • end-use efficiency… not enough smart end-

users?

• best compromise among competing economic, environmental, & security objectives, given the resources & technologies available at the time;

• to promote technological advances that reduce limitations of existing energy options, open new options, and reduce the tensions among energy- policy objectives.

The primary tasks of energy policy are thus…

• many of the goals relate to public goods (like national security) & externalities (like pollution) that are not priced in markets unless policies achieve this;

• markets often also need other kinds of help to avoid “market failures” from abuse of monopoly power, lack of information, perverse incentives, short time horizons, etc.

These ends cannot be achieved by markets alone, because...

The two biggest energy challenges are…

• Reducing the dangers from oil dependence

• Providing the affordable energy needed to create & sustain prosperity everywhere without wrecking the global climate with carbon dioxide emitted by fossil-fuel burning.

Let’s look at these in more detail….

The oil challenge: supply & security

• USA in 2005 used 21 million barrels per day of oil, importing 60% of it.

• Forecasts show US oil use rising to 28 Mb/d by 2030, with all of the increase coming from imports.

• World used 81 Mb/d in 2005, 50% of it traded internationally.

• Consumption forecasted to rise from 81 Mb/d in 2005 to 120 Mb/d in 2030.

• China’s imports by 2030 expected to reach 12 Mb/d.• It remains true that most of the world’s known &

suspected oil resources are in the Middle East.

Dangers of oil dependence

import dependence worsening balance of payments

enrichment of oil-exporting regimes that may use the money to export terror & import nuclear weapons

total oil dependence economic vulnerability to price shocks

increased incentive for military actionto maintain access

reduced freedom of action in foreignpolicy and counter-terrorism

Persian Gulf oil importers by region, 2003 & 2030

Developing Asia’s dependence on the Persian Gulf is already bigger than North America’s and is expected to grow much faster.

Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2006

The oil challenge

ENVIRONMENT• Most oil is used in transport vehicles, and these are

the largest sources of NOx and hydrocarbon air pollution.

• The number of cars in the world is soaring, producing increased congestion and even more pollution.

• Combustion of petroleum fuels accounts for about 40% of CO2 emissions from energy – same as coal – and this is expected to continue.

二氧化硫和氮氧化物产生量预测

Forecasts of S02 and NO2 Emissions

情景 Scenario 2000 2010 2020

二氧化硫

（万吨）

SO2 (10,000 tons)

A 情景 Scenario A 2719 4072 5738

B 情景 Scenario B 2719 3900 4947

C 情景 Scenario C 2719 3443 4056

氮氧化物

（万吨）

NOX(10,000 tons)

A 情景 Scenario A 1988 3417 4982

B 情景 Scenario B 1988 3273 4295

C 情景 Scenario C 1988 2889 3521

Liu Shijin, The State Council, 2004Under the preferred (green) scenario, NOX emissions still increase 75% by 2020.

Wet and dry reactive nitrogen deposition from the atmosphere, early 1990s and projected for 2050

Nitrogen pollution in 2050 vs

1990s

The climate-change challenge

• Global climate is changing rapidly and humans are responsible for most of the change.

• CO2 emissions are the largest driver & 75-85% of these come from combustion of fossil fuels (the rest from deforestation).

• Fossil CO2 emissions are immense (27 million tonnes/yr in 2005) & difficult to capture & store.

• The world’s 80%-fossil-fuel-dependent energy system represents a huge capital investment that takes 30-40 years to turn over.

• Avoiding biggest risks requires sharply reducing CO2 /energy ratio starting immediately.

How much mitigation?

•

Under continuation of “business as usual”

(BAU), global

average surface temperature (∆Tavg

) is likely to reach almost 2°C by 2050, 3°C by 2100, and 4-5°C by 2150.

•

The best current science indicates that…

–

∆Tavg

~ 1.5°C could

mean the end of coral reefs;

–

∆Tavg

~ 2°C

could

mean catastrophic melting of

Greenland & Antarctic ice, producing rates of sea-level rise that could reach 3-4 meters per century;

–

∆Tavg

~ 2.5°C

is likely

to sharply reduce crop yields

worldwide.

Suitable CO2

target?

•

Thus stopping at 2x pre-industrial CO2

(550 ppmv, corresponding to ~3°C), once thought a reason-able target by many) may not be good enough.

•

Many analysts & groups now conclude that prudence requires aiming not to exceed 2°C (450 ppmv

which many analysts think is

VERY tough).

Stabilizing Concentrations

Means Action Now …

Long-term Reduction Rate

Max Year

Max Emission

Start Date

Ceiling (ppmv)

0.5%0.6%0.8%1.1%--

20622049203320112005

12.511.49.78.06.0

2023201820132007Too late

750650550450350

KYOTO Emissions and Concentrations

Emissions Concentrations

665

717

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

ppm

v

Pre-Industrial"Doubling"KyotoIS92a

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

TgC

/yr

KyotoIS92a

Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryBattelle Memorial Institute

Renewables= 4 wedges

Efficiency= 4 wedges

Life cycle energy analysis of renewable energy

Wind

BIPV

Hydropower

Willow Biomass

U.S. Grid

30 – 60

3 – 6

30

9 – 13

0.3

Carbon Intensity (g CO2 eqv./kWh)

10 – 16

26

39 – 52

44 - 71

990

Net Energy Ratio

5.7 million ha willow plantations

130,000 ha BIPV

LAND AREA REQUIREMENTSElectricity consumption in MI = 103 million MWh

980,000 ha wind farm area

(class 4 wind)

Presenter

Presentation Notes

While these metrics are impressive. Each renewable system has its limitations. Compare the land area requirements for meeting the total electricity needs of michigan about 100 million MWh. In the case of willow biomass, 5.7 million ha would need to be planted compared to the installation of 130,000 ha of BIPV. This boxes are drawn at the same scale as this GIS map. Ag land is indicated in yellow which would be insufficient for the willow. The red area is urban land which represents potential sites for the BIPV. I’d like to explore the potential for these systems with a more in depth GIS analysis.

Wind in MIonshore 16,560 MW est. cap.

≈3.0 MW installedoffshore 44,288 MW est.

cap.0 MW installed

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Nameplate capacity in MI = 33,370 MW 2004, EIA

Michigan GHG Emissions Outlook

Baseline Michigan GHG Emissions (MMTCE) from 1900 - 2026Based on 12-Year Growth Rate of 9%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990 2002 2014 2026

Mic

higa

n G

HG

Em

issi

ons

(MM

TCE)

MI BaselineIntegrated MCCP Policy Scenario

9

MCCP GHG Results

Cumulative GHG Emission Reductions (MMTCE) from Integrated MCCP Policy Scenarios (2007 - 2025)

RPS

RFS

Appliance Standards

Building Codes

CHP

Carbon Seqestration

84 MMTCE GHG Emissions Reductions

U.S. Non-Nuclear DOE Energy RD&D With Events

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

1600.0

1800.0

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Req

uest

2008

Req

uest

Fiscal Year

mill

ion

2000

$

Efficiency Renewables Fossil (including CCT demo) Electricity T&D Hydrogen

PCAST Report 1997 G. W. Bush Takes Office

2001

W.J. Clinton takes office

NCEP Report 2004NRC Report2001

K. Sims-Gallagher, 2007. Harvard University

0

5

10

15

20

25

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030

MM

Bbl

/Day

U.S. Demand

Domestic Supply

U.S. Oil Imports

U.S. Oil Futures

0

5

10

15

20

25

1950 1990 2030

MM

Bbl

/Day

Adv Car Technologies

+ Light Trucks

+ Heavy Trucks

+ Net Imports

+ Biomass Liquids

+ ANWR

Domestic Supply

Imports

U.S. Demand

Domestic Supply

COAL IN THE U.S.?Cannot build conventional coal and meet climate targets

• Magnitude• 125 proposed plants,

500 million tons CO2

• Challenge• Stop old coal; shift

to cleaner options• Means• Education,

economic analysis, health analysis, media

Presenter

Presentation Notes

850 million new tons of carbon per year. Increase coal demand by 30 percent. This plants last 50 -70 years.

•IPCC 1990:

The observed increase [in temperatures] could be largely due to natural variability; alternatively this variability andother man-made factors could have offset a still larger man-made greenhouse warming.

•IPCC 1995:

The balance of evidence suggests a discernible humaninfluence on global climate.

•IPCC 2001:

There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is due to human activities.

•IPCC 2007: Most of the observed increase in global temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely

(90%) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. Discernible human influences include ocean warming, continental-

average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns.

Increasing Confidence in the Science

Key variables have beentracking or exceedingIPCC projections

IPCC projections published in the 2001 assessment were based on data to 1990.

Observations since 1990 havetracked the projections for CO2, have been near the high side of projected rangesfor temperature, and havebeen at the extreme high side of the projections for sea-level rise.

Rahmstorf

et al., Science Express, February 2007

2005 was the hottest year on record; the 13 hottest all occurred since 1990, 23 out of the 24 hottest since 1980.

J. Hansen et al., PNAS 103: 14288-293 (26 Sept 2006)

Green bars show 95% confidence intervals

Global surface temperature since 1880

°C

Computer models match observed ∆T on all continents

Black lines are decadally

averaged observations. Blue bands are computer models with natural forcings only. Pink bands are computer models with human + natural forcings.

IPCC AR4 WG1 SPM, 2007

Facing the challenge

••

Mitigation & adaptationMitigation & adaptation

are both

essential.

•

Human-caused climate change is already occurring.

•

Adaptation is already taking place without forethought & must be expanded—we need to anticipate future changes and develop planning, management, and technology solutions.

•

But adaptation becomes costlier & less effective as the magnitude of climate changes grows.

•

The greater the amount of mitigation that can be achieved at affordable cost, the smaller the burdens placed on adaptation.

•

Can ecosystems adapt? – Rates of change expected faster than observed

in the record of the last 10,000 years.

– Ecosystems cannot move “intact”.

– Interactions with other environmental stresses not considered.

•

Almost no research specifically done on ecological or societal adaptation– About 1-5% of the global change research

budget spent on adaptation

•

“Tipping points”

may be exceeded even at 2 degrees C and may be “dangerous”

Meanwhile, climate-change science

is actually being cut! Budget authority in constant FY2007$

Kei Kozumi, AAAS, 2-07

Changing Landscape

•

Sense of the Senate Resolution(to be followed by real legislation?)

•

Pressure coming from–

Cities–

States–

Mainstream corporate America

–

Investment–

International–

Drumbeat of science–

New voices:

Evangelicals–

The election

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Hagel: technology incentives; R&D tax credits; work with developing countries on GHG intensity;

Sense of the Senate Resolution, 6-22-05It is the sense of the Senate that Congress should enact a comprehensive and effective national program of mandatory, market-based limits and incentives on emissions of green-house gases that slow, stop, and reverse the growth of such emissions at a rate and in a manner that--(1) will not significantly harm the United States economy; and (2) will encourage comparable action by other nations that are major trading partners and key contributors to global emissions.

(passed, 53 to 44)

US Mayor’s Climate Protection Agreement

GHG Reporting & Registries

Eastern Climate Registry

Registries in Development

Sequestration Board Studying Registries

Lake Michigan Air Directors

Voluntary RegistriesMandatory Reporting

Pew Center, Global Climate Change, 2006

Renewable Portfolio Standards

ME: 30% by 2000

HI: 20% by 2020

IA: 105 MW

AZ: 15% by 2025

CO: 10% by 2015

NM: 10% by 2011

TX: 10,000 MW by 2025

CA: 20% by 2017

NV: 20% by 2015

MT: 15% by 2015

MN: Xcel 1125 MW by 2010

WI: 10% by 2015

NY: 25% by 2013

MA: 4% New by 2009

DC: 11% by 2022

NJ: 20% by 2020CT: 10% by 2010

MD: 7% by 2008

RI: 16% by 2009

PA: 18% by 2020

Renewable Portfolio Standards

ME: 30% by 2000

HI: 20% by 2020

IA: 105 MW

AZ: 15% by 2025

CO: 10% by 2015

NM: 10% by 2011

TX: 10,000 MW by 2025

CA: 20% by 2017

NV: 20% by 2015

MT: 15% by 2015


WI: 10% by 2015

NY: 25% by 2013

MA: 4% New by 2009

DC: 11% by 2022

NJ: 20% by 2020CT: 10% by 2010

MD: 7% by 2008

RI: 16% by 2009

PA: 18% by 2020

VT: equal to load growth 2005 - 2012

ME: 30% by 2000

HI: 20% by 2020

IA: 105 MW

AZ: 15% by 2025

CO: 10% by 2015

NM: 10% by 2011

TX: 10,000 MW by 2025

CA: 20% by 2010

NV: 20% by 2015

MT: 15% by 2015


WI: 10% by 2015

NY: 25% by 2013

MA: 4% New by 2009

DC: 11% by 2022

NJ: 20% by 2020CT: 10% by 2010

MD: 7% by 2008

RI: 16% by 2009

PA: 18% by 2020

VT: equal to load growth 2005 - 2012

IL: 8% by 2013 †

DE: 10% by 2019

†IL implements its RPS through voluntary utility commitments

WA: 15% by 2020

Pew Center, Global Climate Change, 2006

Corporate Commitments and Results

10% reduction

10% reduction$650 million saved

69% reduction$2 billion saved


25% reduction

9% reduction

6% reduction

10% reduction“It’s made

us more competitive”


13% reduction

Absolute cap


19% reduction

37% reduction

17% reduction

5% reduction

72% reduction

1% reduction$1.5 billion clean tech R&D

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Most of these are reductions over the period 1990-2010.

Climate Legislation in the 109th

http://www.unfoundation.org/SEG/

Millennium Development Goals

1. Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger--Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the

proportion of people living on less than $1/day and the proportion of people suffering from hunger.

2. Achieve Universal Primary Education

3. Promote Gender Equality & Empower Women

4. Reduce Child Mortality--Reduce by 2/3, between 1990 and 2015, the under-5 mortality

rate.

5. Improve Maternal Health--Reduce by 3/4, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal

mortality rate

6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases--By 2015 have halted

and begun to reverse the spread of HIV aids and the incidence of malaria and other major diseases.

7. Ensure Environmental Sustainability

8. Develop a global partnership for Development

Quality of life depends inextricably on 3 legs:

• environment

air, water, soils, mineral resources, plants, animals, nutrient cycles, the climate…

• economics

such as employment, income, wealth, markets, trade, technologies…

• sociopolitics

such as governance, justice, education, health care, science, culture & the arts, liberty, privacy…

Why can’t the MDG’s be achieved in a world vulnerable to Climate Change?

Most impacts are expected to be negative, especially for the poorest, most vulnerable nations

Water resources, coastal infrastructure, health, agriculture, and ecosystems are expected to be challenged in virtually every region of the globe

International, regional, and national institutions are ill- prepared to manage climate change impacts. Enhanced preparedness/response strategies are a global priority

New Orleans, 2005

Sometimes it paysto plan ahead…

(Scheraga, 2005)

Key Findings

• Two-pronged strategy: avoid the unmanageable (mitigation) and manage the unavoidable (adaptation)

• Mitigation & adaptation measures should be integrated & reinforcing

• Exceeding 2-2.5°

C above 1750 levels would entail sharply increasing risk of intolerable impacts. Avoiding this will require prompt action

• Mitigation: Solutions exist to avoid exceeding 2-2.5°

C & advance MDG’s

• Adaptation: We must develop technologies and disaster mitigation strategies to manage changes in water resources, coastal infrastructure, health, agriculture and environmental refugees. New thinking about natural resource planning and management, and preservation of ecosystem services are needed to cope with climatic conditions fundamentally different than the last 100 years.

The Roadmap - Mitigation

• Choose win-win solutions to avoid exceeding 2- 2.5°

C and advance MDG’s, including:

– Shifting to non-fossil fuel supply options

– Designing and deploying only coal power-plants types that can be affordably retrofitted to capture and sequester CO2

– Increasing efficiency in transportation and commercial/residential buildings sector

– Expanding use of biofuels in transportation

– Promoting reforestation and afforestation

– Achieving a tripling to quadrupling of public and private investment in energy research, development and demonstration

The Roadmap - Mitigation

• Set a new global policy framework– Achieve international agreement on target of no more than 2-

2.5°C temperature increase

– Negotiate multi-decade emissions reductions needed to achieve agreed target

– Agree to measure and reduce national energy and emissions intensity

– Respect common but differentiated responsibilities

– Establish a price on carbon emissions in all countries

– Bolster mechanisms to pay for incremental costs of low- emitting technologies for low-income countries

Wildlife can only react

But humans can anticipate

We can plan ahead…. or we can react

The opportunity - Adaptation

– Initiate regional vulnerability assessments that identify challenges and priorities (no longer happening at Federal level)

– Evaluate multiple environmental stresses and climate change in concert and develop solutions that are robust

– Develop technologies & disaster mitigation strategies to manage changes in water resources, coastal infrastructure, health, agriculture & environmental refugees

– Avoid new development on lowlying

coastal land – Bolster international development assistance to help most vulnerable

countries invest in adaptation & coping strategies– Improve the flow of information between individuals and groups to

support collective action and decisionmaking

The opportunity - Advancing Sustainable Development while addressing Climate Change

• Responding to Climate Change Can Advance the MDGs– Clean & affordable energy is essential for achievement of MDGs

– Decentralized, domestic energy sources (e.g., wind, biofuels) can generate jobs and avoid

foreign exchange needed for oil imports

– Sustainable land-use policies are vital for agricultural, forestry

• Integrated mitigation-adaptation strategies can drive investment and

growth:

– Create and rebuild cities to be climate resilient, reduce emissions and manage natural resources

– Harness advanced building designs for maximum resource efficiency & improved health

– Modern energy supplies for cooking and heating reduce wood burning associated with black

soot/aerosols, serious health impacts and land degradation


Adaptation options can include management, technology, infrastructure, institutions, monitoring, and new R&D (and be anticipatory or we will be reactive….)

•

Land-use planning to avoid invasive species, preserve biodiversity, facilitate migration, help wetlands “persist”

•

Cope with changing water supply, demand, timing & quality for both human and ecosystem needs

•

Seed banks, mass propagation techniques

•

Emergency response plans for droughts, floods hurricanes

•

Early warning alert systems / surveillance for disease vectors and extreme weather

•

Incentives / Disincentives / insurance

•

Prioritize lands to preserve

Some key referencesIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2001:

Synthesis Report – Summary for Policymakers, IPCC, 2001 http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/un/syreng/spm.pdf

National Commission on Energy Policy, Ending the Energy Stalemate: A Bipartisan Strategy to Meet America’s Energy Challenges, December 2004 http://www.energycommission.org

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policy Makers. 2007. http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf

UN Scientific Expert Group on Climate Change & Sustainable Development, Confronting Climate Change: Avoiding the Unmanageable and Managing the Unavoidable, United Nations Foundation, 2007 http://www.unfoundation.org/SEG/

http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/un/syreng/spm.pdf

http://www.energycommission.org/

http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf


Sectors: fisheries, water quality, human health, energy, and cross-cutting areas

Goal: Begin to develop an adaptation toolkit

For more information go to: www.snre.umich.edu

7% Emissions Reductions: Total US economic Costs (1997 billion$)

$0$10$20$30$40$50

Domestic Only Domestic,Some Sinks

Annex ITrading

Annex ITrading,

Moderate CDM

Annex ITrading, Some

Sinks

Annex ITrading, Some

Sinks,Moderate CDM

Development of International Development of International Climate Change RegimeClimate Change Regime

IPCC established

Kyoto Protocol

?????Framework Convention

(UNFCCC)

1988 1992 1997 2006

Scientific assessment

Non-binding aim

Binding emissions

target

Presenter

Presentation Notes

The climate change issue has emerged quite quickly. When the issue first emerged in the late 1980s, the first response was to create the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, to study the problem. The IPCC's assessment that there was a problem led to the negotiation of the Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992. And within a matter of a few years, countries decided the Framework Convention was inadequate, and decided to negotiate the Kyoto Protocol, which was adopted in 1997. In just 10 years, we see a progression in the policy responses, from scientific assessment, to a non-binding aim in the Framework Convention, to binding emissions targets in the Kyoto Protocol.

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