review and outlook of china’s economic development liu, shijin director of general office and...
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Review and Outlook of China’s Economic Development
LIU, ShijinDirector of General Office and concurrently Director-General of Research Dept. of Industrial Economy of the Development Research Center of the State Council, PR
C
I. China’s economic development has undergone historical changes
• The economy has been consistently and rapidly developed and the comprehensive national strength has been tangibly promoted.
From 1978-2003, China’s economy witnessed an annual growth of 9.3%,ranking first in the world. In terms of comparable price, China’s GDP in 2003 was 9.38 times that of 1978.
Compared with that of 1980, the aggregate of GDP of 2000 showed a fivefold increase and realized the goal of quadrupling the average per capita GDP in spite of the newly-added 300 million population.
Total value of GDP from 1978-2003 (per year)
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 30
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
GDP(100 million yuan) Growth rate( % )
The national wealth has gone up, the output of some major industrial and agricultural products has been increased by a big margin and the yield of some important products is among the first rank in the world.
The economic growth has changed from a supply-restraint one to a demand-restraint one.
In 2003, the average per capita GDP in China exceeded $ 1,000.
Changes of average per capita GDP of Chinese people from 1978-2003
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
19781979
19801981
19821983
19841985
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
Percapita GDP
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Growthrate
Average per capita GDP(yuan/per person )
GDPgrowth rate (%)
People’s life has witnessed great improvement in history.
Since 1979, the consumption level of the Chinese people both in urban and rural areas has been greatly raised and its growth has become one of the fastest in the world.
From 1978 to 2003, the Engel efficient (i.e. ratio between foodstuff consumption expenditure and the total consumption expenditure) of the Chinese residents both in cities and rural areas has been reduced respectively from 57.5% and 67.7% to 37.1% and 45.6%.
Engel coefficient for Chinese people
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
19781980
19851989
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
Engel coefficient for rural families(% )
Engel coefficient for urban families ( % )
Income of urban and rural people and growth rate(1973-2003) (per year)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 30
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Income for city dwellers (yuan) Growth rate (%)
Income of rural people and growth rate(1978-2003)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 30
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Income of rural people (yuan) Growth rate (%)
Retail sales of social product from 1978-2003
05000
100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 30
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Retail sales of social product(100 million yuan)
Growth rate (%)
Bank deposit balance at end of the year and growth rate for city and rural residents across the country
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
12000019
7819
7919
8019
8119
8219
8319
8419
8519
8619
8719
8819
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
03
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Bank deposit balance (100 million Yuan)
Increased volume Growth rate (%)
The number of rural poor had been reduced from 250 million in 1978 to 30 million in 2000, showing a decrease from 30.7% to 3% accounting for the total rural population.
Generally speaking, the urban and rural people have experienced two historical strides, namely from being poor to having adequate food and clothing, and from having adequate food and clothing to being well-off.
• The economic structure is undergoing adjustment and fast upgradin
g and has entered the mid-phase of industrialization.
• The industrial structure is showing an explicit development trend fro
m a low level to a high level and from a seriously imbalance to a ba
sically reasonable balance.
A comparative complete industrial system has been established.
Hi-tech technological industry has become an important force drivin
g forward industry and the entire economy.
Total investment for fixed assets and growth rate (1985-2003)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Total investment (100 million yuan) Growth rate (%)
Structural changes for three industries
Ratio of primary industry
Ratio of secondary industry
Ratio of tertiary industry
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
19781979
19801981
19821983
19841985
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
Ratio
-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
Growth rate
Growth rate ofprimary industry Growth rate of
secondary industryGrowth rate oftertiary industry
Structural changes for employment of three industries
Ratio for primaryindustry
Ratio for secondaryindustry
Ratio for tertiaryindustry
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
19781979
19801981
19821983
19841985
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
Ratio
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Growthrate
Growth rate ofprimary industry
Growth rate ofsecondary industry
Growth rate oftertiary industry
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
19781980
19851989
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
Urbanization rate in China
Urbanization rate (%)
• The pattern of opening up to the outside world in all fields has basically been formed and the previous closed and semi-closed economy has been initially turned into an open economy.
• From 1978-2003, the total volume of import and export had been increased from $ 20.64 billion to $ 851.2 billion, ranking from the 32nd place to the 4th place in the world.
Total volume of import and export and growth rate (1978-2003)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Total volume of import andExport ($ 100 million)
Growth rate (%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
19801985
19891990
19911992
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
Structure changes for China’s export products
Ratio for primary products Ratio for finished industrial products