puri ifad climate_change
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Climate Change Thematic Window
Jo PuriHead of Evaluation
Deputy Executive Director, 3iewww.3ieimpact.org
AIM & COMPONENTS
Overall Aim: Improve lives• Better evidence on what
works and why• Improve awareness and
accountability• Effective allocation of funds• Increase likelihood that CC
interventions are able to contribute to reduced GHG emissions and increase resilience.
Climate Change Thematic Window
• Combination of 15 impact evaluations and 5 systematic reviews
• Can also include IEs requested by governments
Did the program cause the change?
Did the program cause the change?
Impact evaluation and policies
Would it have happened anyway?Would it have happened anyway?
If the program caused the effect, how much was the effect?
If the program caused the effect, how much was the effect?
Are there other ways, that are cheaper to get the same impact?
Are there other ways, that are cheaper to get the same impact?
Impact Evaluations
Impact Evaluations
– Efficacy and design– Effectiveness of
interventions. – What can be scaled
up? What can be/should be replicated?
– Cost effectiveness of interventions
– Trade-offs
Design: MARENA in Honduras
• The MARENA programme better natural resource management
• Impact of MARENA– Total farm output
increased by $295 per year compared with non-participants from different villages
– No spill over effects recorded
Are Protected areas effective?
- Selection bias in choosing PAs (implications for PES)
9
Roads (1982) and Forests Of North Thailand (1986)
NORTH THAILAND
Elevat.shp
Elevat.shp
1 - 1000 feet
1000 - 3500 feet
3500 - 6000 feet
6000 - 7700 feet
Elevat.shp
NORTH THAILAND
Elevat.shp
Elevat.shp
1 - 1000 feet
1000 - 3500 feet
3500 - 6000 feet
6000 - 7700 feet
Elevat.shp
Data
• Combination of cross-sectional spatially explicit raster (1:1m) and vector layers and district level census data.
• Physiographic: Elevation (DEM), Slope• Soil (FAO)• Socio-Economic: Population density • Cost of Travel to the market; Roads (DCW)• Protected Areas (IUCN), • Land Use 11
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Cleared Land (Y1 = 1) T- Stats
Slope (degrees) -0.088 -10.652
Elevation (ms.) -0.001 -8.095
Population density1990 (people/km2)
0.003 4.532
Log(cost) (1982)** -0.191 -9.729
Soil and Province Dummies Not Shown
Protected Area dummy (1986) -0.077 -0.332
Constant 1.295 8.870
Protected Area (Y2 = 1) Equation
Slope (Degrees) 0.034 5.297
Elevation (ms.) 0.001 9.058
Population density1990 (people/km2)
0.001 2.297
Log(cost) (1982) 0.192 7.477
Soil and Province Dummies Not Shown
Watershed dummy 0.188 3.543
Constant -4.098 -14.010
Log Likelihood -3714.7
No. of observations 4946
Trade-offs: Road building and Cropping
Systematic Reviews
• A policy relevant synthesis of evidence on effectiveness of a particular intervention
• An unbiased assessment • All available high quality/ scientific evidence.• Create a gap map (assessment of evidence)• Highlight areas where there is lack of high
quality evidence and recommendations for further research.
Interventions / Outcomes Awareness, knowledge Attitudes and Beliefs Risk behaviour / skills HIV transmission Take-up, retention. adherence Morbidity Mortality
Quality of life and well-being
Household well-being
Labour Participation/ productivity Empowerment Stigma
Treatment Access, Service quality
Behaviour change interventions
Peer Education Prevention for heterosexual men Behaviour change interventions for women ICT for youth Reducing stigma
Prevention for heterosexual men Peer intervetions Couples-focused behavioural interventions Challenges in HIV prevention research Prevention in occupational settings
Peer intervetions ICT for youth Condom use for HIV positive women Behaviour interventions for prevention
Prevention in Latin America
Peer Education
ICT for youth
Prevention in heterosexual men Prevention in occupational settings
Behaviour interventions for prevention School based interventions for youth
Influence of social agents
Peer interventions
Prevention in Latin America
ICT for youth
Prevention in occupational settings
School based interventions for youth
Condom promotion distribution
Prevention for youth in Africa
Information, education and communication
Educating traditional healers School-based sexual health in Africa Educating traditional healers Prevention for youth in Africa Increasing youth's use of health
services Peer-based interventions for HIV positive women Educating traditional
healers Peer-based interventions for HIV positive women
Peer-based interventions for HIV
positive women
School-based sexual health in Africa Peer-led sexual health education for youth
Prevention for youth in Africa Prevention in African youth Peer-based interventions for HIV positive women
Reducing stigma
Peer-led adolescent sexual health education Life skills education for youth
School-based sexual health intervetions in Africa Girls' education
Life skills education for youth Parent-child communication in
Africa Peer-led sexual health education for youth
Peer-based interventions for HIV positive women
Life skills education for youth
Parent-child communication in Africa
Prevention in African youth
Girls' education
Peer-based interventions for HIV positive
women
Mass communication Mass communication programmes
Increasing youth's use of health services
Mass media for young people
Community education, mobilisation
Community interventions for youth Behaviour interventions for prevention
Reducing stigma
HIV Testing and Counselling
Counselling for HIV testing of pregnant women Family planning Home-based VCT
Family planning
Routine vs. voluntary testing VCT Routine vs. voluntary testing Integrating PMTCT with health
services
Counselling for testing of pregnant women Family planning
Rapid T and C for pregnant women
Counselling for testing of pregnant women
Routine vs. voluntary testing
Rapid T & C for pregnant women
Prevention of Mother to Child Transmission
Counselling for HIV testing of pregnant women Integrating PMTCT with other health
services
Counselling for testing of pregnant
women
Biomedical interventions
Challenges in HIV prevention research
Population based biomedical interventions for STI control
Male circumcision
Antiretroviral Therapy
Impact of treatment on risk behaviour Children's adherence to ART
Non-clinincal outcomes of ART
Nurses ART
management
Nurses for ART management
Treatment and Care
Family support Task shifting in Africa
Task shifting in Africa Psychosocial well-being HIV affected children
Palliative care
Family-centred treatment for HIV positive children
Palliative care
Patient adherence Family-centred
treatment for HIV positive children
Task shifting in Africa Self-management
interventions
Self-management interventions
Family-centred treatment for HIV positive children
Health Systems Integrated HIV and TB Service delivery
in Africa Integrating PMTCT with health
services Task shifting in Africa Task shifting in Africa
Increasing youth's use of health
services Integrated HIV and TB Service delivery in Africa Integrated HIV and TB
Service delivery in Africa
Key populations
Peer-education Harm reduction for involuntary
detainees Peer-education
Harm reduction for involuntary detainees
Prevention interventions for female sex workers Behaviour interventions for prevention
Harm reduction for involuntary detainees Prevention interventions for female sex workers
Behaviour interventions for sex workers Male circumcision for prevention of homosexual acquisition
Harm reduction for involuntary
detainees
Behaviour interventions for sex
workers
Interventions to reduce HIV/AIDS stigma
Reducing stigma Reducing stigma Reducing stigma
Reducing stigma
Structural Interventions
Economic Interventions Economic interventions for HIV prevention Challenges in HIV prevention research
Economic interventions for HIV prevention
Economic interventions for HIV
prevention
Outcomes
What color is your cell?
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Climate Change: The evidence gap
• There are only 60 IEs...(continuing)
• Only 8 SRs directly related.
Best bang for your buck? Organization Funds Areas of Intervention
GEF $755.5 million (2012) Energy efficiency, Renewable Energy, Sustainable Transport sustainable forestry
WBG $3,300 million (2009) Renewable energy, disaster risk reduction
UNDP $400 million (2008-2012)
Mainstreaming climate change, and support of mitigation and adaptation projects
UNEP $50.96 million (2012) adaptation capacity, clean technologies, climate communications and outreach
UN-REDD $108 million (2008-2011)
Forestry initiatives
Others (OECD, DFID)
Investments include developing solar panel and clean coal technology, fishery science,
and others
IMPORTANCE OF THE 3IE THEMATIC WINDOW
Significance• There is a big gap between
the requirement and availability of funds. – Required $500 bn– Available $95 bn
• Different country blocs have different requirements and resources
• Multiple outcomes
URGENCY
Urgent and Timely• International agenda: GCF
and SDGs.• Small Island Developing
States • Stern report and IPCC
report: Science is well known but what works in terms of uptake?
• Next few meetings should be better informed: • GEF in 2014; • COP 20 in eastern Europe. • Roadmap for 2015
(Copenhagen)
POLICY IMPACT
Reduction in Vulnerability in West Bengal
• This 3ie funded study recommended that the government reduce costs for small farmers to acquire electric pumps
• This policy is now being implemented by the state government
• External validity
CLIMATE CHANGE THEMATIC WINDOW:
PROCESS AND DELIVERABLES
Short to Intermediate Outputs of the Climate Change Thematic Window
Briefing document and research agenda finalised
FEBRUARY 2013
Preliminary evidence gap-map on CC adaptation and mitigation
Draft reports of five systematic reviews
Final evidence gap-map available on 3ie website. FEBRUARY 2014
OCTOBER/NOVEMBER 2012
Short to Intermediate Outputs of the Climate Change Thematic Window
Efficacy/quick IEs results
NOVEMBER 2014 ONWARDS
Midline reports and process evaluations of funded impact evaluations start to become available
MAY 2014
Draft final reports of funded impact evaluations start to become available
NOVEMBER 2015 ONWARDS
Longer term Outputs of the Climate Change Thematic Window
OCTOBER 2017 Systematic reviews updated with new evidence available
Increase in availability and use of evidence high quality evidence to inform climate
change programming
WWW.3IEIMPACT.ORGThank you.
Weather Insurance: Smallholder Farmer Access to Weather Securities
• Ongoing 3ie funded study that offers weather securities to farmers in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh
• Main impact question– What is the impact of access
of weather securities on a smallholder farmer’s consumption and production decisions?
Community Driven Development in Sierra Leone
• The CDD seeks to build social capital, trust and capacity for collective action in the communities where it works
• This study adds to the growing body of evidence that these projects do not build social cohesion
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Attribute
Treatment
GroupMean
Comparison Group
Mean
T-statistic for test of Difference
(Comparison – Treatment)
% with public transport available all day
93% 89% -1.19
No. of days roads are closed 3.9 6.6 2.60**
No. using transportation to reach a primary school
2.1 2.1 0.04
Payment for transportation to Primary school (Quetzales per month)
58 74.5 1.84*
Avg. time taken to reach school (non-primary)
18.4 19.2 0.77
Avg. amt. paid for transportation to non-primary school (Quetzals
68.3 81.2 1.6*
Avg. time taken to reach a health center (any) – Minutes
51 53 0.6
Avg. amt. paid for transportation to reach a health facility (Quetzales)
33 90 2.85**
Average distance traveled to get wood. (Minutes)
68 62 -1.3*
Time taken to reach work 42 50 1.25*