Climate change and health Jouko Tuomisto, Professor Emeritus

THL, Dept. of Environmental Health

POBox 95, FI-70701 Kuopio, Finland

Key sources

• www.ipcc.ch

– Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis

– Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

– Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change

• http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/

– Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment

The simplest fact: Heat is directly dangerous

• Heat waves cause excessive mortality and morbidity especially among unprepared population

Excess deaths in France during a heat wave in 2003 Source: IPCC 2007

Daily mortality during the 1976 heat wave in Greater London Source UK Climate Change and Health

Then comes the climate change Source: The Economist Note: greenhouse effect is not climate change

Basics of climate change: carbon dioxide increases (red: Mauna Loa, Hawaii, Black: Antarctica, IPCC 2014)

Why is carbon dioxide increasing?

Source: Climate Change

Impacts in the U.S. 2014

Basics of climate change: other drivers (IPCC 2014)

Basics of climate change: observed changes IPCC 2014

Is it really carbon dioxide?

Source: Climate Change

Impacts in the U.S. 2014

Common argument: it’s natural variation

Source: Climate Change

Impacts in the U.S. 2014

Future is up to us: we are the uncertainty

Source: Climate Change

Impacts in the U.S. 2014

Basics of climate change: changes are not even (IPCC 2014)

Extreme weather conditions

NRC/NOAA Draft Report for public review:

Weather and Climate Extremes in a

Changing Climate, 2008

Average summer temperatures in Switzerland. 1864 - 2003

Back

Health impact is not even: risk factors Source: UK Climate change and health 2007

Projected increase in heat-related deaths in Chicago Source: Climate impacts report USA 2009

Urban heat island effect Source: Climate change impacts report USA 2009

Parts of cities

can be up to 4

°C warmer

than the

surrounding

rural areas:

•energy

production

•asphalt

absorbs heat

•less wind

•less

vegetation

Not only extremes: Pathways by which climate change affects health and favourable conditions may help.

Source: IPCC 2014

Air pollutants and climate change Source: UK Climate change 2007

Temperature and ozone Source: Climate change impacts report USA 2009

Ozone and hospital admissions (Canada, multicenter study)

103

104

105

106

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

0 50 100 150 200 250

Daily max. 1-h O3 level ug/m3

Ho

sp

ital

adm

issio

ns,

res

p.

nex

t d

ay

Burnett et al., 1994

Smoke can reach Baltimore from Quebec

Mutual benefits of abatement

• Climate change and particulate/toxic air pollutants are caused by the same activities, esp. production of energy by burning; therefore abating air pollution should also mean decreasing CO2 and methane production

• Production of some pollutants (esp. ozone) is increased by increased temperatures; therefore fighting climate change improves air quality

• Forest fires caused by hot and dry springs and summers spread particulate matter over long distances

Infectious diseases will become more common

• Particularly vector borne diseases, if the conditions for vectors favour new territories (malaria mosquitoes, ticks etc.)

• Some bacterial diseases due to changes in temperature and moisture conditions (cholera, salmonella, other diarrhoeal diseases, food poisoning)

• Prediction problematic, because standard of living and preventive measures make a difference

Source: Climate Change

Impacts in the U.S. 2014

Climatic drivers on vector born diseases Source: IPCC 2014

Falciparium malaria predictions 1961-1990 climate Source: UK Climate change 2007

Falciparium malaria predictions 2080 climate Medium-high scenario. Source: UK Climate change 2007

Source: Climate Change

Impacts in the U.S. 2014

Mean temperature and Salmonella infections in New Zealand 1965-2000

Source: WHO 2004

Food availability will change and malnutrition increase

Changes in water availability in different parts of the World

Source: IPCC 2007

Causes of decreasing crop yields Consequence: in wealthy countries economic losses, in poor countries famine and refugee problems with many health consequences

• Drought: less precipitation and/or more evaporation

• Increases in temperature and CO2 levels initially benefit crop growth, but higher levels of warming negatively affect growth and yields, and favour weeds, diseases and insect pests

• Changes may increase quantity but worsen quality (e.g. protein content of forage)

• Also heavy downpours are likely to reduce crop yields in some areas

• The impact is worst in already stressed regions (e.g. Africa, Mediterranean countries, some regions of the U.S.)

Crop yield impacts (IPCC 2014)

Impacts on agriculture and forestry productivity Source: IPCC 2007

Source: Climate Change

Impacts in the U.S. 2014

Relative vulnerability of coastal deltas Source: IPCC 2007

People displaced:

Extreme > 1 million

High 50 000 – 1 million

Medium 5000 – 50 000

Increased flood risk in New York City Source: Climate change impacts report USA 2009

Light blue

shows the

areas now

projected

to be

flooded

once in

100 years.

These

could be

inundated

far more

frequently.

Weather-related insurance losses Source: Climate change impacts report USA 2009

Major health effects due to Climate Change (size of impact and confidence on the estimate)

Source: IPCC 2007

Not only extremes: Pathways by which climate change affects health and favourable conditions may help

Source: IPCC 2014

Health effects of social disruption

• Food shortage and displacement lead to refugee problems that are most acute in neighbouring areas but may involve far-off regions due to emigration

• Hygienic conditions deteriorate especially due to refugee camps and result in outbreaks of diarrhoeal and other infectious diseases

• Poverty and lack of food lead to social restlessness and violence, sometimes even ethnic conflicts and disasters (Jared Diamond: e.g. Rwanda and Burundi in 1990s)

Key messages related to health (in U.S.A.) Source: Climate change impacts in the U.S. 2014

See also whatweknow.aaas.org

Climate science is not only recent

Source: Climate Change

Impacts in the U.S. 2014

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