climate change and impact on water resource planning
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Climate Change and Impact on Water Resource Planning. Eugene S. Takle Certified Consulting Meteorologist Director, Climate Science Initiative Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Climate Change and Impact on Water Resource Planning
Climate Change and Impact on Water Resource Planning
Eugene S. TakleCertified Consulting Meteorologist
Director, Climate Science Initiative
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of Agronomy
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
Eugene S. TakleCertified Consulting Meteorologist
Director, Climate Science Initiative
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of Agronomy
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
ASCE Environmental & Water Resources ConferenceAmes, Iowa
25 March 2010
OutlineOutlineIowa precipitation trends of
the 20th CenturyScientific basis for future
climate changeProjected future global and
regional changes in climateImpacts of climate change on
water resources management
Iowa precipitation trends of the 20th Century
Scientific basis for future climate change
Projected future global and regional changes in climate
Impacts of climate change on water resources management
Observed Trends in Iowa Precipitation
Observed Trends in Iowa Precipitation
State-Wide Average Data
State-Wide Average Data
31.5”
37.5”
19% increase
State-Wide Average Data
Totals above 40” 8 years2 years
State-Wide Average Data
Cedar Rapids Data
28.0” 37.0”32% increase
Cedar Rapids Data
7.8” 51% increase 11.8”
Cedar Rapids Data
20.2” 34% increase 26.8”
“One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6 mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Cedar Rapids Data
4.2 days 57% increase 6.6 days
Cedar Rapids Data
4.2 days 57% increase 6.6 days
2
11Years having more than 8 days
State-Wide Average Data
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
Iowa Agricultural Producers’ Adaptations to Climate Change
Iowa Agricultural Producers’ Adaptations to Climate Change
Longer growing season: plant earlier, plant longer season hybrids, harvest later
Wetter springs: larger machinery enables planting in smaller weather windows
More summer precipitation: higher planting densities for higher yields
Wetter springs and summers: more subsurface drainage tile is being installed, closer spacing, sloped surfaces
Higher humidity: more spraying for pathogens favored by moist conditions, more problems with fall crop dry-down, wider bean heads for faster harvest due to shorter harvest period during the daytime.
Longer growing season: plant earlier, plant longer season hybrids, harvest later
Wetter springs: larger machinery enables planting in smaller weather windows
More summer precipitation: higher planting densities for higher yields
Wetter springs and summers: more subsurface drainage tile is being installed, closer spacing, sloped surfaces
Higher humidity: more spraying for pathogens favored by moist conditions, more problems with fall crop dry-down, wider bean heads for faster harvest due to shorter harvest period during the daytime.
Great Flood of 1993 in the US Midwest:A New “Great Lake”
Lakshmi, V., and K. Schaaf, 2001: Analysis of the 1993 Midwestern flood using satellite and ground data. IEEE Trans. Geosci & Remote Sens., 39, 1736-1743.
Historical Data indicate this should happen about once every 500 years
Projected Future Trends in Iowa Precipitation
Projected Future Trends in Iowa Precipitation
“The future isn’t what it used to be”
Yogi Berra
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
NASA
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
Global Mean Surface Temperature
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009.
Global Carbon Emissions (Gt)
Actual emissions are exceeding worst case scenarios projected in 1990
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Balanced fuel sourcesEnergy intensive
More environmentally friendly
If current emission trends continue, global temperature rise will exceed worst case scenarios projected in 2007
FI =fossil intensive
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
IPCC 2007
December-January-February Temperature Change
A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus1980-1999
7.2oF
6.3oF
IPCC 2007
June-July-August Temperature Change
A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus1980-1999
4.5oF
5.4oF
June-July-August Temperature Change
A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus1980-1999
4.5oF
5.4oF
Not the direction of current trends
IPCC 2007
IPCC 2007
Low confidence in model projection of summer precipitation
IPCC 2007
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Low confidence
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Trend of increase in occurrence of heavy precipitation over the 20th C is consistent with increasing GHG concentrations.
Frequency of intense precipitation events is likely to increase in the future.
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
MitigationPossible
AdaptationNecessary
AdaptationNecessary
The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
AdaptationNecessary
AdaptationNecessary
MitigationPossible
The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions
Relationship of Streamflow to Precipitation in Current and Future Climates
Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest
Temperature
Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest
Temperature
*Estimated from IPCC reports
*Estimated from IPCC reports
Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest
Precipitation
Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest
Precipitation
Use of Regional Climate Modeling for Design and Decision-
Making:North American Regional
Climate Change Assessment Program
Use of Regional Climate Modeling for Design and Decision-
Making:North American Regional
Climate Change Assessment Program
Global models lack regional detail
North America coastlines and terrain at typical global climate model resolution used for the IPCC 3rd and 4th Assessment Reports.
Hadley Centre AOGCM (HadCM3), 2.5˚ (lat) x 3.75˚ (lon), ~ 280 km
North America at 50 km grid spacing
NARCCAP Plan
A2 Emissions Scenario
GFDL CCSM HADAM3link to EU programs
CGCM3
1960-1990 current 2040-2070 futureProvide boundary conditions
MM5Iowa State/
PNNL
RegCM3UC Santa Cruz
ICTP
CRCMQuebec,Ouranos
HADRM3Hadley Centre
RSMScripps
WRFNCAR/PNNL
Reanalyzed climate , 1979-2000
NARCCAP Plan
A2 Emissions Scenario
GFDL CCSM HADAM3link to EU programs
CGCM3
1960-1990 current 2040-2070 futureProvide boundary conditions
MM5Iowa State/
PNNL
RegCM3UC Santa Cruz
ICTP
CRCMQuebec,Ouranos
HADRM3Hadley Centre
RSMScripps
WRFNCAR/PNNL
Reanalyzed climate , 1979-2000
ISU Climate Science Initiative is now running four models
Iowa State University Climate Science
Initiative
Iowa State University Climate Science
Initiative ISU/CSI is the only organization in the
world running four different regional climate models for science, impacts and adaptation
Climate change impacts and adaptation Streamflow in the UMRB Subsurface tile drainage flow Pavement performance Building design standards Soil carbon Crop growth
ISU/CSI is the only organization in the world running four different regional climate models for science, impacts and adaptation
Climate change impacts and adaptation Streamflow in the UMRB Subsurface tile drainage flow Pavement performance Building design standards Soil carbon Crop growth
http://climate.agron.iastate.edu/ or Google ISU CSI
Iowa Environmental Mesonet
Iowa Environmental Mesonet
Collects over 400,000 observations per day
Serves out data to thousands of users each day
Receives over 10,000,000 web hits per day
Collects over 400,000 observations per day
Serves out data to thousands of users each day
Receives over 10,000,000 web hits per day
http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/
SummarySummary There is no scientifically defensible explanation for
atmospheric warming, increase in ocean heat content, and loss of ocean and land ice over the last 40 years other than increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gases
Climate challenges to water resource management are most evident in extreme events
Changes of extremes are more evident than changes in means
Global and regional climate models have much to offer for understanding future Midwest water resource management adaptation strategies
The Iowa Environmental Mesonet provides a wealth of environmental data relative to water resource management
There is no scientifically defensible explanation for atmospheric warming, increase in ocean heat content, and loss of ocean and land ice over the last 40 years other than increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gases
Climate challenges to water resource management are most evident in extreme events
Changes of extremes are more evident than changes in means
Global and regional climate models have much to offer for understanding future Midwest water resource management adaptation strategies
The Iowa Environmental Mesonet provides a wealth of environmental data relative to water resource management
For More InformationFor More Information
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/
For current activities on the ISU campus, regionally and nationally relating to climate change see the Climate Science Initiative website: http://climate.agron.iastate.edu/
Contact me directly: [email protected]
Contact Chris Anderson, Assistant Director of the Climate Science Initiative, [email protected]
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/
For current activities on the ISU campus, regionally and nationally relating to climate change see the Climate Science Initiative website: http://climate.agron.iastate.edu/
Contact me directly: [email protected]
Contact Chris Anderson, Assistant Director of the Climate Science Initiative, [email protected]