climate change

‘’IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGIC PROCESSES MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES: CASE STUDY OF AFRICA AND INDIA’’

TERM PAPER

“WST 500”

Name- Celestin DEFORoll No.: 10369, Ph. D, 1st year Course Leader: Dr. Sushma. S.

Division of Water Science and Technology, IARI New Delhi

ContentIntroduction: what is Climate Change?

Climate Change status in Africa

Climate Change in India

Mitigation strategies of Climate Change

Adaptation strategies to Climate Change in Africa and India

Introduction‘’Global warming is for real. Every scientist knows that now, and

we are on our way to the destruction of every species on earth, ifwe don't pay attention and reverse our course’’. Theodore C. Sorensen;

Global warming is the ‘talk of the town’ in this century, with itsdetrimental effects already being brought to limelight by the recurringevents of massive floods, annihilating droughts and ravaging cyclonesthroughout the globe ;

Before embarking on a detailed analysis of Global warming and its impacts on climate, we should first know what climate, green house effect and global warming actually mean.

IntroductionThe climate is defined as’ the general or average weather conditions of a certain region, including temperature, rainfall, and wind’.

The earth’s climate is most affected by latitude, the tilt of the Earth's axis, the movements of the Earth's wind belts, and the difference in temperatures of land and sea, and topography.

Human activity, especially relating to actions relating to the depletion of the ozone layer, is also an important factor.

IntroductionGREEN HOUSE EFFECT

Green House effect is the phenomenon whereby the earth'satmosphere traps solar radiation, and is mediated by thepresence in the atmosphere of gases such as carbon dioxide,water vapor, and methane that allow incoming sunlight to passthrough, but absorb the heat radiated back from the earth'ssurface.

Thus the Green house gases (GHGs) provide a blanketing effect in thelower strata of the earth’s atmosphere, and this blanketing effect isbeing enhanced because of the human activities like burning of fossilfuels etc.

IntroductionEFFECT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON THE EARTH’S CLIMATE

Detailed researches of climatic events of the past 150 years haverevealed that the temperatures have risen all over the globe, withthe warming occurring in two phases.

The first phase was from 1919 to 1940, with an averagetemperature gain of 0.35°C, and the second phase was from 1970to the present, exhibiting temperature gains of 0.55°C.

Records show that the past 25 years have been the warmest timeof the past 5 centuries. The global warming has resulted in thewarming of the oceans, rising of the sea levels, melting ofglaciers, and diminished snow cover in the NorthernHemisphere.

Global Drivers of Change:9 billion people by 2050

Food crises

Climate change

Energy crises

Water scarcity

Dietary change

Urbanization

Collapsing fish

Stocks Pollution

2 Billion by 2050

Global food chains

disadvantage

smallholders

Networked science

Strength of BRICs

Growth of private

sector

Deforestation, soil

erosion and

exhaustion

Economies of

scale

increasing challenges – increasing opportunities Seleshi B et al, 2010

Global Drivers of Change:

In general, climate changes prior to the Industrial Revolution in the1700s can be explained by natural causes, such as:

changes in solar energy, volcanic eruptions, and natural changes ingreenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations.

Recent climate changes, cannot be explained by natural causes alone.But, by the human activities such as the production of GHG can verylikely explain most of that warming.

GHG (Green House Gas) are: CO2, CH4 and N2O

Climate change in AfricaThe six warmest years on record in Africa have occurredwithin the last 20 years and the average temperature roseapproximately 0.5 °C during the 20th century.

In addition, the continent has seen a decrease in rainfallover large parts of the Sahel and Southern Africa, and anincrease in parts of East and Central Africa.

The number of weather-related disasters, droughts andfloods, has doubled in Africa over the last 25 years, andAfrica has higher mortality rates from droughts than anyother region.

Climate change in AfricaProjection of the ricks of global warming in Africa

While the exact nature of the changes in temperature,precipitation, and extreme events is relatively known, there isagreement about the general trends.

Global mean surface temperature is projected to increasebetween 1.5 °C (2.7°F) and 6 °C (10.8°F) by 2100. Sea levels areprojected to rise by 15 to 95 centimeters (6 to 37 inches) by 2100.

Climate change scenarios for Africa indicate future warmingacross the continent ranging from 0.2°C (0.36°F) per decade (lowscenario) to more than 0.5°C (0.9°F) per decade (high scenario)(Hulme Desanker and Magadza 2001).

Climate change in AfricaThese years climatic variation manifests itself as extreme weather variations, such asfloods and droughts. These events are increasing in magnitude and frequency over theyears. The mean annual rainfall has been decreasing over the decades:

Many countries, including Botswana, Burkina Faso, Chad, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mauritaniaand Mozambique, experience drought at regular intervals.

The 1997-98 El Niño floods caused heavy damage to roads, buildings, bridges, railwaylines and other property including schools.

Incidences of epidemic diseases such as malaria increased during this period. This isrelated to improved conditions for mosquito breeding; mosquitoes transmit manyviruses, over 100 of which are known to infect humans, including malaria, dengue, yellowfever and severe and sometimes fatal encephalitis and dengue haemorrhagic fever(Akhtar and others 2001). Cholera, which is transmitted by water or food, could aggravatehealth problems in many parts of the world including Africa.

Lake Chad has already decreased in size by about 50% in the last 40 years.

Change Region

Average conditions

Temperature increase Entire continent (median projected increase in annual average

temperature: 3 to 4 ºC (end of century to present)

Decrease in rainfall West coast of Africa as far south as 15º N

Southern Africa

Increase in rainfall Northern parts of East Africa

Uncertain projections for rainfall Sahel (already high variability)

Guinean coast

Southern Sahara

Sea level rise Low lying islands and coastal zones

Delta regions

Extremes Increase in intense precipitation events Entire continent (this applies also in regions of mean drying because

there is a proportionally larger decrease in the number of rain days)

Cyclones Uncertain — changes in magnitude and frequency, and shifts in

cyclone tracks possible

Climate change in Africa

Source IPCC (2007)

Climate change in Africa

From 1973 to 2001, 50% of the Lake Chad have dried

Climate change in AfricaMore intense and unpredictable weather events are likely in countries such as Kenya, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, and Madagascar

The six warmest years on record in Africa have occurred within the last 20 years and the average temperature rose approximately 0.5 °C during the 20th century.

In addition, the continent has seen a decrease in rainfall over large parts of the Sahel and Southern Africa, and an increase in parts of East and Central Africa.

The number of weather-related disasters, droughts and floods, has doubled in Africa over the last 25 years, and Africa has higher mortality rates from droughts than any other region.

Many countries, including Botswana, Burkina Faso, Chad, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mauritania and Mozambique, experience drought at regular intervals.

Source, World Bank, 2009.

Climate Change in IndiaThere has been a particularly alarming effect of global warming on the climate of India.India is already a disaster prone area, with the statistics of 27 out of 35 states beingdisaster prone, with most disasters being water related.

The process of global warming has led to an increase in the frequency and intensity ofthese climatic disasters. According to surveys, in the year 2007-2008, India ranked thethird highest in the world regarding the number of significant disasters, with 18 suchevents in one year, resulting in the death of 1103 people due to these catastroph;

Warming trend over India has been reported to be 0.57 C per 100 years.

Floods, droughts and cyclones are key extreme climatic events

Permanent glaciers in upper Himalayas have vacated large areas, resulting in an increasein glacial runoff.

Plausible annual changes in area-averaged surface air temperature and precipitation oversouth Asia as a result of future increase in greenhouse gases.


(Lal et.al, 2004)


View of the different disaster prone areas of India

Recents Floods in indiaFLOODS IN BIHAR: over populated state in Northern India, extremely prone to

floods.The total area covered by the state of Bihar is 94,163 km2.

Its average elevation above sea level is 173 feet.Bihar faces the predicament of floods almost every year,

with the link between India and NepalThe Koshi River being one of the main reasons for the

flood in Bihar.Excessive rainfall due to the recent global warming in

Nepal leads to an overloading of dams and leads to flashfloods in the Bihar region.



People evacuated from their homes due to the incessant floods in India wade in the waters, searching for a place to make camp.

2005: MAHARASHTRA FLOOD: a major climatic catastrophe

occurred in the state of Maharashtra in the form of massive floorings, leading to a deathtoll of 5000 people. The areas of Mumbai, Chiplun, Khed, Kalyan, Ratnagiri and Raigadwere completely flooded

2007 SOUTH ASIAN FLOODS: global warming finally triggered a flood

formation that was so devastating, that it annihilated the entire South Asian region, destroying large zones in India,Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh. It’s most devastating effects were observed in South India, where it lasted formore than 15 days, killing more than 2000 people and affecting another 30 million.

2009 INDIAN FLOODS: The most affected states were Karnataka,

Orissa, Kerala, Gujarat and North-East Indian states, with over 200 people reported dead,and a million homes destroyed



ww.theatlantic.com/infocus/2013/06/early-monsoon-rains-flood-northern-india/100537/

A Hindu devotee tries to take a holy dip in the flooded waters of river Ganges in the northern Indian town of Haridwar, on June 18, 2013

Buses and trucks sit submerged in the rising waters of the Yamuna River in New Delhi, on June 19, 2013. (AP Photo/Tsering Topgyal)

Climate Change in IndiaA submerged idol of Hindu Lord Shiva stands in the flooded River Ganges in Rishikesh, in the northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, on June 18, 2013.

Torrential monsoon rains have cause havoc in northern India leading to flash floods, cloudbursts and landslides as the death toll continues to climb and more than 1,000 pilgrims bound for Himalayan shrines remain stranded.

ww.theatlantic.com/infocus/2013/06/early-monsoon-rains-flood-northern-india/100537/

2010 LADAKH FLOODS: On 6th August 2010, Leh and many other

villages of the Ladakh range were drowned by a downpour that killed at least 255 people

2011 INDIAN FLOODS: The 2011 surge of severe precipitation affected

India savagely, with surging flood waters in Northern and Eastern India affectingmore than 10 million people as the swollen rivers washed away roads and towns,particularly in the states of West Bengal, Bihar, Kerala and Assam.

2012 NORTHERN INDIAN FLOODS: The year 2012 is also

included in the continuous chain of years of floods in India. In Assam, at least 27 peopledied and 900,000 were forced to evacuate their homes as monsoon rains. Uttarakhand,Himachal Pradesh and Jammu


Droughts in India

People parched for water are ready to injure each other as they struggle to get water from a well in the drought affected areas of India


Cyclones

West Bengal, Orissa,Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu along the Bay of Bengal are the most affected


Mitigation StrategiesMany options of mitigating the atmospheric concentration of CO2 by 2050 atapproximately 550 ppm. Have been indicated by some authors.

C sequestrations in terrestrial ecosystems with renewable biomass constitute amajor C sink.

Forests, forestery and agriculture offer many benefict to the mitigationstrategies of climate change

1. Forests The global forests cover 3952 million ha, or 30% of the earth’s land area of

which about 95% are natural forests and 5% are plantations (FAO, 2005)

Tropical and subtropical forests comprise 56% of the world’s forests, whiletemperate and boreal forests accounts account for 44%. Forests are capable ofmitigating large amount of carbon dioxide.

Presently, the net rate of C sequestration in forest ecosystems (other than thosebeing deforested) is 1.7 to 0.5 Pg Cyr-1.

the forest sector has a biophysical mitigation potential of 5.4 PgCyr-1 onaverage up until 2050

Mitigation Strategies

2 Agroforestry An attractive and promising option for sequestering carbon on

agricultural lands while leaving the bulk of the land for agriculturalproduction,

Agroforestry plays vital roles in mitigation of atmosphericaccumulation of GHGs,

Carbon sequestration rates are very encouraging for complexagroforestry, boundary planting, hedgerow intercropping, and homegardens.


Mitigation StrategiesAgro foresty

practice

Carbon

sequestration rate

(tonnes C eq ha-1

yr-1)

Region

Complex

agroforestry

11 Central Africa

Boundary planting 35-50 Central Africa

Hedgerow

intercropping1-37 Indonesia and

IndiaSajwaj et al, 2008

3 Agriculture Agriculture provides the primary source of livelihood for more than

one third of the world’s total workforce, producing the food needed tosustain the population of our planet.

Agriculture directly contributes between 5.1 and 6.1 Pg CO2-eq (10-12%)to global greenhouse gas emissions, in form of CH4 and N2O, less CO2

There are a wide range of mitigation options in agriculture, with anoverall potential of up to 6 Pg CO2-eq yr-1, but with economic potentialsof around 4 Pg CO2-eq yr-1 at carbon prices up to 100 US$ t CO2-eq-1


Mitigation Strategies1. Manure and nutrient management

Manure is a major source of methane, responsible for some 400 milliontons of CO2-equivalent and poor manure management is a leading sourceof water pollution;

Use wastes for anaerobic biogaz digester and help climate;

Improve the use of N fertilizers in agriculture;

Now a day, organic farming is being promoted as a climate friendly andsustainable farm system. It is thought to contribute to GHG mitigationbased on a number of factors. Organic agriculture has a much reducedconsumption of fossil fuels for energy less vulnerability of soils to erosion, andan increase in carbon sequestration.

Mitigation Strategies2. Soil management

Most cultivated soils contain about 1 to 5% carbon by weight, much ofit stored in organic matter, derived from the residues of plants growingon the soil;

The goal of soil management, for GHG mitigation, is to increase thesoil organic matter, thus increasing the amount of organic carbon thatis retained in soils. Several soil management practices favour increasedsoil C storage.

3. Livestock management

An annual emission from livestock is about 7.1 billion tons (including2.5 billion tons from clearing land for the animals, accounting for about14.5 percent of emissions from human activities;

Animal nutrition has the potential to reduce urine and manure Ncontent, which will result in lower N2O emissions. Through breedingprogrammes, substantial progress has been made in reducing CH4

emissions per litre of milk produced or per kilogram of meat.


4. Energy management

A wide range of materials have been proposed for use, including grain, cropresidue, cellulosic crops (e.g. switch grass, sugarcane) and various treespecies.

These products can be burned directly, but often are processed further togenerate liquid fuels such as ethanol or diesel fuel;

These fuels release CO2 when burned, but this CO2 is of recentatmospheric origin (via photosynthesis) and displaces CO2 whichotherwise would have come from fossil C;

According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the use of ethanolblended with gasoline can reduce motor vehicle emissions of carbonmonoxide by 25% to 30% and also reduce ozone levels that contribute tourban smog.


Adapting to Climate ChangeAdaptation measures are a series of policies that reduce the

vulnerability of natural systems, human population and

economies to climate stresses and climate change (Duwing et al

1997). This can be achieved through:

Institutional Arrangements

Warning and Prevention of Floods

Management of Droughts

Adaptation in agriculcure

Improving Institutional Capacity

Integrated planning for extreme climatic events at all levels

Modern unified legislation for disaster management

Comprehensive, robust and accessible database

National network of all knowledge-based institutions

Introduction of weather-indexed insurance

Provision of adequate financial support foradaptation/ vulnerability reduction schemes

Adapting to Climate Change

Development and Management of Water Resources

Enhance water storage capacity,

Conduct strategic analysis of NRLP and implement the inevitable

Improved design standards in disaster prone areas

Enhance water productivity at all levels

Invigorate the traditional institutions at local levels

Promote private partnership in critical functions


Adapting to Climate ChangeAdaptation to Floods•Learning to live withthe floods• Improved flood forecasting• Area inundation forecast• Flood plain zoning ,enforcement of regulations• Community participation in flood management

Adapting to Climate ChangeDrought management is still

an ad-hoc and empirical famine intervention for providing instant

relief to prevent starvation.

Vulnerability mapping,

community involvement;

prevention, mitigation and

quick response, use of modern

tools and and procedures of

imonitoring, impact documentation and capacity building is not

yet fully in place

Comprehensive, decentralized system of drought declaration andmanagement

Vulnerability-level based system of drought response

Shift in favor of robust and integrated system of

livelihood opportunities

Water harvesting at local, community and strategic level as a strategicintervention for mediating drought impacts


Adapting to Climate ChangeAdaptation of Agriculture

•Use of biotechnology toformulate suitable geneconstructs to impart droughtresistance and heat and coldtolerance.

•Improved crop productiontechniques to enhance inputuse efficiency, use of resourceconservation technologies,attain higher yields .

•Special efforts for coastal,hilly and other critical andfragile areas.

THANK YOU

climate change

Environment

climate change status

impact of climate change

climate changes

introductionthe climate

global drivers of change

africaclimate change

sorensenglobal warming

introductionglobal warming