climate challenges for food animals

1

The Future is HereYvette Bordeaux, Ph.D., Penn Earth & Environmental Science

Climate Challenges for Food Animals

22

Overview

• The evidence for climate change

• Climate forcings• Anthropogenic causes• World Response• Impacts on food animal

Penn Vet Annual Conference | Climate Challenges for Food Animals

33

The Evidence

Source: NASA Images of Change


http://climate.nasa.gov/images-of-change?id=586#586-exceptionally-early-ice-melt-greenland

44

The Evidence-Sea Ice Change

• In 2019 Arctic sea ice remained younger, thinner, and covered less area than in the past.

• The 12 lowest extents in the satellite record have occurred in the last 12 years.

Source: NOAA Arctic Report Card 2019Penn Vet Annual Conference | Climate Challenges for Food Animals

https://arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2019/ArtMID/7916/ArticleID/841/Sea-Ice

55

Differences for January

PrecipitationTemperature

Source Climate.govPenn Vet Annual Conference | Climate Challenges for Food Animals

https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/data-snapshots/averagetemp-monthly-cmb-2018-10-00?theme=Temperature

66

Differences for August

PrecipitationTemperature

Penn Vet Annual Conference | Climate Challenges for Food AnimalsSource Climate.gov


77

Average US Temperature in September

Source: NOAA


https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/national/time-series/110/tavg/1/8/1895-2019?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1901&endbaseyear=2019&trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=1895&endtrendyear=2019&filter=true&filterType=binomial

88

Drought-Is this normal variability?

September 15, 2020September 15, 2015

Penn Vet Annual Conference | Climate Challenges for Food AnimalsSource Climate.gov


99

Climate Forcings


1010

What is Climate Forcing?

• Any influence on climate that originates from outside the climate system itself.

The surface of our sun. Photo: Mann & Kump, 2015.


1111

The Climate System

• Hydrosphere• Oceans

• Lithosphere• Land surface

• Cryosphere• Glaciers

• Biosphere• Ecosystems

• Atmosphere


Melting glacier in Iceland. Photo Credit: Yvette Bordeaux

1212

Earth’s Climate Forcing

• Milankovitch Cycles• Incoming solar radiation• Volcanic eruptions• Surface reflectivity

• Albedo• Greenhouse gases


Erupting volcano. Photo: Mann & Kump, 2015.

1313

Human Induced Climate Forcing

• Atmospheric aerosols• Industrial output• Human Caused Wildfires

• Increase Warming through • Greenhouse Effect

Penn Vet Annual Conference | Climate Challenges for Food AnimalsWildfire in California. Photo: Mann & Kump, 2015.

1414

Greenhouse Effect


1515

Earth’s Energy Budget


1616

Greenhouse gasses in the Atmosphere

CO2CH4N2OCFC


1717

The Greenhouse Gases

Source: IPCC (2014)

F-gases=Fluorinated gases (i.e. hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6))


https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/

1818

What is the concentration of CO2 in the Atmosphere?


1919

Greenhouse Gases

• Absorb infrared radiation from Earth

• Mainly H2O vapor and CO2

• Monthly Average:• 1958: 317.45 ppm• 2020: 414.7 ppm

Source: NOAA


https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2636/Rise-of-carbon-dioxide-unabated

2020

Sources of Carbon dioxide (CO2)

• Natural Sources• Decaying matter• Natural wildfires• Volcanic eruptions

• Anthropogenic sources • Fossil Fuel burning• Limestone Roasting


The Carbon Cycle. Photo: Mann & Kump, 2015

2121

Energy Related CO2 emissions

Source: IEA


https://www.iea.org/articles/global-co2-emissions-in-2019

2222

CO2 emissions over time

Source: NOAAPenn Vet Annual Conference | Climate Challenges for Food Animals

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ff.html

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ff.html

2323

CO2 in Oceans• CO2 highly soluble in

seawater• Excess CO2 in atmosphere

locked up in oceans• CaCO3 biogenic

sediments• Stimulate growth of

phytoplankton which consume CO2

• =~38,000 BTChlorophyll map of the world. Source: SEAWIFS


https://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/SeaWiFS/

2424

Other greenhouse gasses


2525

Global Warming Potential (GWP)

• The ratio of the warming caused by a substance to the warming caused by a similar mass of carbon dioxide

• Usually based on a residence time of 100 years


Greenhouse gas molecules. Photo: Mann & Kump, 2015

2626

Methane (CH4)

• GWP =28-36 *• Sources:

• Agriculture• Waste Management• Energy Use (natural Gas)• Biomass Burning

Methane concentration in atmosphere Source: NOAA

*over 100 years USEPA


https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts

https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/understanding-global-warming-potentials

2727

Nitrous Oxide (NO2)

• GWP=265-298 *• Sources:

• Agriculture (especially fertilizer use)

• Product of incomplete fossil fuel burning

Nitrous Oxide concentration in atmosphere Source: NOAA

*over 100 years USEPA



https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/understanding-global-warming-potentials

2828

F-Gases

• Sulfur hexafluoride• 22,200

• Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC)-12

• 8,500• CFC-11

• 5,000• Hydrochlorofluorocarbons

and hydrofluorocarbons range from

• 93 to 12,100

Source: NOAAPenn Vet Annual Conference | Climate Challenges for Food Animals


2929

World Agreements


30

IPCCestablished

Kyoto Protocol

An Inconvenient TruthAl Gore Paris Climate

Agreement

UNFCC established

1989 1994 1997 2006 2015

A Short History of Worldwide Attempts to Control Emissions


3131

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

• United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change.

• Created in 1989 to aid policymakers in understanding

• Regular scientific assessments

• Potential future risks• Recommend adaptation

and mitigation options


32

IPCCestablished

Kyoto Protocol


Agreement

UNFCC established

1989 1994 1997 2006 2015


Penn Vet Annual Conference | Food Animal Track

3333

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC)

• 197 Parties to the Convention• Purpose:

• “Prevent “dangerous” human interference with the climate system”

• Objective• “stabilize greenhouse gas

concentrations “”at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human induced) interference with the climate system.“”


3434

UNFCC

• Industrialized countries are expected to

• Lead in reduction of emissions

• Give financial support to developing countries

• Submit annual inventories


3535

UNFCC

• Annual conferences to measure progress and reassess goals

• Conferences of Parties • COP


36

IPCCestablished

Kyoto Protocol


Agreement

UNFCC established

1989 1994 1997 2006 2015



3737

Kyoto Protocol

• Adopted in 1997 and ratified in 2005

• Purpose:• Reduce emissions of 6

greenhouse gasses in 41 industrialized countries and EU to 5.2% below 1990 levels.

• Target period 2008-2012• 192 Parties

• US joined in 1997• US dropped out in 2001


3838

Kyoto Protocol Doha Amendment

• Adopted in 2012• Purpose:

• Further reduce emissions of 6 greenhouse gasses to 18% below 1990 levels.

• Target period 2013-2020• 37 Industrialized countries and

the EU committed• Did not reach the 144

instruments of acceptance needed to enforce the amendment.


39

IPCCestablished

Kyoto Protocol


Agreement

UNFCC established

1989 1994 1997 2006 2015



4040

The Paris Climate Accord

• COP 21 held in Paris• 195 countries including US

signed• Objective:

• Prevent a global temperature rise of 2oC above pre-industrial levels

• US dropped out in 2016


4141

The Paris Climate Accord

• Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC)

• “Each climate plan reflects the country’s ambition for reducing emissions, taking into account its domestic circumstances and capabilities.”

• Plans are to be updated every 5 years


4242

Consequences of a warming planet


4343

Some Consequences of Warming

• Heat Waves• Wildfires• Vector-Borne Disease• Flooding• Drought• Increased Storm Intensity• Sea Level Rise

• Storm Surge


Effects of drought. Photo: Mann & Kump, 2015

4444

Average US Temperature Increasing

• In US, annual average temperature increased by 1.2°F (0.7°C) for the period 1986–2016

Source: Climate Science Special ReportSource Climate.gov


https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/6/


4545

Heat Stress for Food Animals• Increases in daily maximum

temperatures or heat waves can lead to heat stress for free range food animals

• Result in changes in respiration rate, heart rate, blood chemistry, hormones, and metabolism

• Increased intake of water and reduced feed intake

• Affects reproductive efficiency• High temperatures adversely affect

pasture and range conditions and reduce forage crop and grain production

Source: Fourth National Climate Assessment

Penn Vet Annual Conference | Climate Challenges for Food Animals Drought stricken crops. Photo: Mann & Kump, 2015

https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/10/

4646

Heat Stress for Dairy Cows

• Negative impacts to include: • Appetite suppression• Rumen fermentation process• Lactation yield

• Frequent higher temperatures also lower milk quality

• Reduced fat, lactose, and protein percentages

• In 2010, heat stress was estimated to have lowered annual U.S. dairy production by $1.2 billion.




4747

Heat Stress for Beef Cows

• Similar impacts as Dairy• Higher temperatures result

in• Reduced appetites • Reduced grazing/feeding

activity• Increase in water intake




4848

Forage Quality

• Forage quality is expected to be affected by rising CO2concentrations

• Decrease in dietary iron,zinc, protein, and other macro- and micronutrients



Drought stricken crops. Photo: Mann & Kump, 2015


4949

Vector-Borne Diseases

• Abundant late-spring and early-summer moisture

• Insect related disease on the rise as a result

• The geographic range of suitable habitats for insect vectors is expected to continue shifting northward into New England in the next several decades



Mosquitos. Photo: Mann & Kump, 2015


5050

Wildfires

• Wildfires in the west are impacting air quality around the world

Source: AirNow

Source: NASA


https://www.airnow.gov/sites/default/files/2019-03/protect-your-large-animals-and-livestock-from-wildfire-smoke.pdf

https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/goddard/2020/nasas-aqua-satellite-continues-to-capture-natural-disasters

5151

Regional Impacts- Northeast

• Heat waves• Heavy downpours• Agriculture and ecosystems

will be increasingly compromised

Source: NASA


Regions of the US. Source: Fourth National Climate Assessment

https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/


5252

Regional Impacts- Northwest

• Reduced water supplies for competing demands

• Erosion of top soil• Increasing wildfire• Insect outbreaks• Tree diseases causing

widespread tree die-off

Source: NASA





5353

Regional Impacts- Southeast

• Extreme heat • Decreased water

availability

Source: NASA





5454

Regional Impacts- Midwest

• Extreme heat• Heavy downpours • Flooding • Air and water quality

Source: NASA





5555

Regional Impacts- Southwest

• Increased heat• Drought • Insect outbreaks• Increased wildfire• Declining water supplies will

reduce agricultural yields

Source: NASA





5656

References

• AirNow Fires

• Climate Science National Report

• Fourth National Climate Assessment

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

• Mann, M. E. and L. R Kump, 2015. Dire Predictions. Understanding Climate Change. The Visual Guide to the Findings of the IPCC. Pearson.

• NASA Images of Change

• NASA Vital Signs of the Planet

• NOAA Arctic Report Card

• NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory


https://www.airnow.gov/fires/

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/


https://www.ipcc.ch/

https://www.amazon.com/Dire-Predictions-Visual-Guide-Findings/dp/1465433643

https://climate.nasa.gov/images-of-change


https://arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2018/ArtMID/7878/ArticleID/789/Harmful-Algal-Blooms-in-the-Arctic

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/

climate challenges for food animals

Documents