presentation russchenberg - clouds, climate, challenges

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Clouds, climate, challenges Herman Russchenberg Remote Sensing of the Atmosphere

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10/04/2013 TU Delft Climate Institute Symposium: Do clouds change in a warming climate?

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Page 1: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

Clouds, climate, challenges

Herman Russchenberg Remote Sensing of the Atmosphere

Page 2: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

Earth-atmosphere energy balance

Page 3: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

The radiation balance: a status quo

Solar energy

No atmosphere

Too cold to live in

Greenhouse gases

Too warm to live in

Cooling clouds

Nice in the shade

height

-20 +24 +14

Page 4: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

Clouds and climate

Clouds scatter light

Clouds absorb heat

Evaporation cools

Condensation warms

Cooling Warming

Page 5: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

A bit about cloud formation

Condensation level

No aerosols A few aerosols Many aerosols

Moist air parcels

Clouds

Page 6: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

rainfall formation

Large droplets: rainfall

More aerosols

Delayed rainfall

Longer cloud lifetime

Sustained impact on radiation

Page 7: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

Direct w

arming due to CO

2 Response of the earth Ad

ditio

nal w

arm

ing

Global warming: state of the art

Page 8: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

Short wave fluxes Long wave fluxes

Number concentration

Liquid water content

Optical depth = total extinction of radiation due to absorption and scattering

Page 9: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

Example of flux calculations

Page 10: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

Neg. Feedback

Pos. Feedback

Present

Perturbed Future

Strong Pos. Feedback

Possible cloud responses to warming

Page 11: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

Greenland melt, July 2012

Page 12: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

Bennartz et al, 2013, Nature

Impact of thin low level clouds on surface temperature

Page 13: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

How much light reaches the earth? How much is reflected into space?

How much heat leaves the earth? How much water condenses or evaporates?

How much water precipitates?

The cloud questions

Page 14: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

50 km

50 k

m

Climate grid

Why are clouds so difficult?

Page 15: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

Complexity of the problem

Large variety of cloud types

Global information needed

A large range of temporal and spatial scales

A multitude of different physical parameters

Page 16: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

How to solve this problem?

Models Observations

Page 17: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

Cesar Observatory

Delft University of Technology, KNMI, Wageningen University and Research Utrecht University, RIVM, ECN, TNO , European Space Agency

Groeten uit Cabauw

Page 18: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

Observation of light rain with different instruments lidar radar

time

heigh

t

Why multi-sensor strategies?

short wavelength long wavelength

Page 19: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

1.  Cloud thickness 2.  Liquid water content 3.  Droplet size 4.  Number concentration 5.  Vertical profile

What do we have to know?

Case study: water clouds

Page 20: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

Assume a cloud model

Cloud base

Cloud top

H

Expected response of radar

Expected response of lidar

Number of droplets

Water content

Page 21: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

radar lidar radiometer

Inside stratocumulus Radar reflection [dBZ]

Total amount of water [g/m^2]

Time [utc]

Page 22: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

estimate cloud parameters

Droplet concentration Profile particle size

Courtesy: Christine Brandau

Page 23: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

Extinction Optical thickness

radiative properties

Page 24: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

Questions

•  Can we use radiation measurements to evaluate cloud retrievals?

•  What’s the impact of the assumed vertical cloud profiles on radiation?

Page 25: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

Evaluation with radiative closure

•  retrieval of cloud microphysics

•  calculate the surface radiation

•  compare with surface radiation measurements

•  ARM mobile facility, Germany, 2007

•  Cloud radar, ceilometer, microwave radiometer

•  Pyranometer surface irradiance

Page 26: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

Models of the vertical cloud structure

Three models for different vertical

variations within the cloud

1.  Homogeneous Mixing 2.  Scaled-Adiabatic

Stratified 3. Vertically Uniform

Page 27: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

The 3 vertical cloud

models can

reproduce the

radiation at surface

with small biases

Surface radiation closure

Page 28: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

Impact of the vertical cloud structure

Three models for different

vertical variations within the

cloud

1.  Homogeneous Mixing

2.  Scaled-Adiabatic Stratified

3. Vertically Uniform

Page 29: Presentation Russchenberg - Clouds, Climate, Challenges

Way of the future: integration space, ground, air, models

Ice clouds

Water clouds

Mixed phase clouds

drizzle rainfall

Energy fluxes, evaporation Water balance

Aerosols Water vapour Trace gases

radiation