CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGES AND SOLUTIONS IN INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING AND ADAPTATION

White Paper

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THE CHALLENGES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change results in conditions that are too hot, too dry and too wet, causing a rise in sea levels and an increase in the number of extreme events, such as storms, floods, droughts or landslides. The negative effects of climate change include impacts on infrastructure and economy [1], quality of life, health [2], social stability and peace [3, 4].

“Climate change is destroy­ing our path to sustainability. Ours is a world of looming chal­lenges and increasingly limited resources. Sustainable deve­lopment offers the best chance to adjust our course.” Ban Ki­moon

Climate change is not a novel phenomenon in historical dimen-sions. There is ample evidence showing that climate fluctuations have often been involved in gene-rating conflicts and perturbations in human history [5, 6]. Today, global warming is already causing an expansion of deserts and a rise of sea levels. In the future this will lead to uninhabitable regions on a grand scale. Impacts on infra-structure, resulting from storms, floods, landslides or rock falls, are already causing considerable uncertainty with respect to critical infrastructure such as traffic

connections, and are also threa-tening industry and settlements. Impacts on infrastructure in turn affect energy and food supplies. However, in contrast to earlier climate fluctuations, the current climate change is unprecedented as its origin is clearly anthropoge-nic [7]. There has been consensus in the scientific community for decades that anthropogenic climate change is actually occur-ring [8]. Today, it is considered a fact that human activities have altered the environmental condi-tions on earth to such an extent that this phenomenon warrants defining a new geological time unit known as the Anthropocene [9]

“The shift to a cleaner ener­gy economy won’t happen over­night, and it will require tough choices along the way. But the debate is settled. Climate chan­ge is a fact.” Barack Obama

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ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

According to the World Meteorological Organization the year 2016 was the warmest year since the onset of industrialization. It was 1.1 °C warmer compared to the temperatures in the pre-indus-trial era before 1880 [10]. El Niño induced droughts in southern Africa caused power shortages due to water scarcity in hydropo-wer plants. After two years with almost no precipitation in Ethiopia, the worst drought since 30 years threatened almost 20 % of the population with starvation [11]. Such developments do not only negatively affect emerging econo-mies, but also generate waves of migration, thereby threatening social stability worldwide.

The heat waves in Europe in 2003 and 2010 already demons-trated the effects of extreme events by causing thousands of fatalities, reduced grain harvests, decreased power production, and temporary shutdown of water -cooled nuclear power plants. Weather extremes in the year 2010 caused a-one-in-a-hundred year drought in China and enor-mous fires in the Ukraine. Due to the resulting crop failures and ex-port restrictions, the market price of wheat doubled worldwide [12].

The resulting increase of bread prices in the Middle East amplified an already existing discontent of people, ultimately contributing to the developments of the “Arab Spring”. In Syria, the worst drought in 900 years in the period between 2006 and 2011 caused starvation

of 85% of the livestock. As a consequence, 800,000 farmers lost their livelihood, which trig-gered a massive wave of migrati-on towards the cities. This in turn has been considered to be a key factor contributing to the civil war in Syria [13, 14]. The refugee crisis in Europe revealed that climate change also has the potential to negatively affect social and political stability [3, 4] in countries that, as yet have not been fully exposed to the direct effects of climate change. Even though the indirect effects of climate change on social pertur-bations are hard to prove scienti-fically, the direct effects of climate change cause significant and obvious damage to ecosystems [15], health [2], social stability [3] and economic assets [1]. Hence, the reality of human-caused climate change has now become broadly accepted and its implica-tions fundamentally affect political decision-making and economic strategies worldwide.

“The impact of climate chan-ge is a tremendous risk to the security and well-being of our countries.” Nancy Pelosi

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Figure 2: Overall insured losses due to geophysical, meteorological, hydrological and climatological events [20]. Only geophysical events (which are unrelated to global warming) do not show a steady increase since the year 1980.

Figure 1: Estimated total economic projections resulting from climate change benefits (blue) and damage (red) in the US for 2080-2100 [19]

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COST OF CLIMATE CHANGE

More than 10 years ago the economist Nicolas Stern reviewed the effects of global warming on the world economy [1]. He came to the conclusion that climate change mitigation measures adopted now will cost a fraction of the economic losses incurred in the future without such measures being taken.

Today, there is a broad consen-sus that insufficient investments in the near future will result in far hig-her costs in years to come. As a result, considerable financial and economic responses to climate change can be observed. For in-stance, banks are stepping up their efforts to raise funds for cli-mate change related actions towards climate change mitigation and adaptation. Investors are adapting their strategies by divesting on a large scale from fossil fuels, as mitigating global warming requires that large reserves of fossil fuels need to remain untouched.

Estimates of the costs incurred by adapting to a 2 °C warmer cli-mate between 2010 and 2050 ran-ge from US$70 billion to US$500 billion per year worldwide [16, 17]. Investments to cope with climate change are likely to rise further as climate change appears to pro-gress more rapidly than expected [18]. Recent estimates of climate change damage predict an increa-se of global warming costs of up

to 30 % of GDP in certain areas in the US for 2080-2100 (Figure 1) [19].

Costs of global warming arise

in many respects. Global players in the reinsurance sector such as Munich Re observe increasing losses due to events that may be linked, among others, to global warming such as meteorological, hydrological and climatological events (Figure 2). The destruction of infrastructure assets by storms, floods or fires not only disrupts critical transport and energy supply, but also threatens the health and safety of the people affected. The series of devasta-ting hurricanes in the USA in the year 2017 demonstrated this vividly. More frequent extreme events may lead to higher unem-ployment rates, reduced socio- political stability and may ultima-tely also increase the risks of civil or international wars.

“Around the world, climate change is an existential threat – but if we harness the oppor­tunities inherent in addressing climate change, we can reap enormous economic benefits.”Ban Ki­moon

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The Paris Agreement was a joint result of scientific knowledge, political will and economic neces-sity, and it was reached, almost miraculously, despite many politi-cal and economic obstacles. It provides unprecedented oppor-tunities for cooperation to address climate change. While cooperation among the public and private sector and other stakeholders is increasing, it remains to be seen whether the actions implemented will keep the effects of climate change at bearable levels for people and nations. In Paris, all countries agreed to limit the increase in global average tempe-rature “to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C”. While the efforts to mitigate climate change have not yet attained the necessary momentum to reach this goal, climate change appears to advance more rapidly than anticipated [18]. In response to this development, national and international organizations in the public and private sector are chal-lenged to find novel and effective ways of cooperation to implement the strategies required to cope with the resulting challenges.

Coping with global warming involves measures to reduce human-caused climate change (climate change mitigation) and measures to increase infra-structure resilience to the impacts of climate change (climate change adaptation).

CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION

Climate change mitigation involves reducing greenhouse gas emissions by means of increased energy efficiency, sus-tainable transport, renewable energy technologies, energy storage and transport, carbon dioxide capture and storage and mineral carbonation and industrial use, and last but not least by forest expansion.

The face of the industrial world has to change and this change will be driven by the 3 Ds of the power industry, namely Decar-bonization, Decentralization and Digitalization.

Decarbonization is inevitable in order to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

Decentralization is characte-rized by a transition process from centralized power systems and passive consumers toward more decentralized power systems, with a larger extent of small energy generation units, and active consumers.

Digitalization (Industry 4.0) and the creation of the “Digital Twin” is presumably one of the most challenging tasks of our time to mobilize energy efficiency, and will help, together with new tech-nologies and decentralized energy systems, to decouple economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions.

SOLUTIONS TO FACE CLIMATE CHANGE

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SOLUTIONS TO FACE CLIMATE CHANGE

ENERGY EFFICENCY, THE MOTOR OF CHANGE

A key strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions is decreasing energy utilization by changing energy use and develo-ping more efficient technical solutions. Increased energy efficiency, which ultimately also saves energy costs, is one of the most effective, and yet least applied means to reduce green-house gas emissions.

Important areas where energy efficiency can be increased are sustainable buildings and cities. Specific measures comprise deve-loping and optimizing energy efficient designs for building structures and facades. For urban areas, key measures are optimi-zed urban development schemes, including sustainable energy and transport concepts, and state-of-the-art water supply, wastewater treatment and waste management design solutions.

Industry, as the sector that is projected to account for the largest share of global energy demand by 2035, has a critical role to play in achieving international, sustaina-ble development goals, including energy security and climate change mitigation.

Industrial energy efficiency (IEE) opens up significant potential

for greenhouse gas reduction and has to be seen as a key driver for a comprehensive energy reduction.

Energy management and energy efficiency improvements of industrial plants aim at increased flexibility as well as optimized operation of power supply systems and may, for instance, involve utilizing ‘waste heat’, generated as a by-product of energy-intensive production processes, in conjunc-tion with intelligent control con-cepts. In this context, expanding individual parts of existing structures one by one is less effective than optimizing the energy efficiency across entire systems.

SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT

Around 25 % of the total green-house gas emissions worldwide are produced by the transport sector. Even though engines have never been as efficient as today, we are now moving faster and longer distances and therefore are increasing our energy consumpti-on for transport. Hence, transport is a key sector for reducing green-house gas emissions.

Several trends indicate that mobility behavior, transport and transport infrastructure will under-go enormous changes in the fore-seeable future. Electric vehicles

are promoted around the world as key solution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Given that the amount of battery electric vehicles worldwide is almost doubling every year, and that hydrogen and fuel cells are also gaining import-ance, these technologies may replace combustion engines to a large extent in the next decades.

The gradual introduction of autonomous vehicles and, more generally, the increasing import-ance of artificial intelligence based on neural networks for self-lear-ning control systems is likely to revolutionize transport. However, the impact of this on the climate could be counter-productive. For example, recent studies indicate that autonomous, electric vehicles might have a disruptive effect on the public transport sector, so new challenges and opportunities for public transport suppliers need to be considered.

However, only new approa-ches and strategies in the deve-lopment of transport infrastructure and spatial planning can help to reduce our dependencies on motorized transport and lessen the negative impacts of transport such as energy consumption, space requirements and noise emissions.

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SOLUTIONS TO FACE CLIMATE CHANGE

RENEWABLE ENERGY

The array of renewable energy sources is continuously increa-sing, ranging from photovoltaic power plants, photovoltaic hybrid and off-grid systems, concen-trated solar power plants, wind parks, biofuel and biogas plants, biomass and waste-to-energy- plants to geothermal energy plants. As solar and wind farms are often not built where power is needed, regional and national energy planning principles are changing along with the imple-mentation of more decentralized renewable energy production faci-lities. In the context of renewable energy, major challenges involve transporting energy from the origin of production to the area of consumption, storing energy in periods of over-production, and ensuring electric power network stability.

ENERGY STORAGE AND POWER SUPPLY RELIABILITY

Integrating renewable energy sources such as wind, solar and hydropower into the power system, and establishing lar-ge-scale energy markets is central to achieving objectives of afforda-bility, sustainability and security of supply in the context of climate change.

Reliability of power supply depends on the ability to match supply with demand in real time, a

task which will become more difficult with higher shares of vari-able renewable energy sources.

As renewable energy is

typically subject to fluctuations – wind, water and solar power production can fluctuate seasonal-ly, daily or even hourly – on- demand power supply requires a variety of new technologies in data processing, flexible power supply, smart grid and energy storage facilities to cope with these fluctuations.

Appropriate technologies invol-ve, among others, pumped stora-ge, gravity energy storage, power-to-gas storage, air pressure storage and battery storage.

One of the key future perspec-tives of energy storage is sector coupling with its headline “Power to X”, where X can be gas, heat, liquid or others. Intelligent control concepts will not only allow an optimized supply of energy consu-mers, but also the participation in balancing the energy market ( active consumers).

Many innovative concepts are being discussed, especially in regard to a decentralized power supply, where consumers also act as suppliers. One of these concepts addresses an increasing proportion of electric vehicles that are connected to the power grid while parking, which may help co-ping with power fluctuations by

acting as a means of distributed electric energy storage.

Upgrading and expanding power transmission lines to larger grids can also counterbalance fluctuations in power production. For instance, in the EU wind and hydropower will be transported from the north to the south of Europe, while solar power can be transmitted from the south to the north of Europe. Together with smart grid technology, this will also resolve issues with regard to network instability resulting from fluctuations inherent in renewable energy production.

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SOLUTIONS TO FACE CLIMATE CHANGE

CAPTURE AND STORAGE OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

While all forms of renewable energy are gaining importance in the overall energy mix, the target of the Paris Agreement implies reducing greenhouse gas emissi-ons to net zero in the second half of this century. However, the consumption of fossil energy continues to be on the rise. Therefore, reaching the targets of the Paris Agreement will require technologies to capture and store greenhouse gas emissions in combination with other climate change mitigation options, such as energy storage, energy efficiency, or switch to renewa-bles. Carbon dioxide has become a key business liability expected to decrease a firm’s value by USD 212,000 for every 1000 metric tons produced. Therefore, carbon capture and storage

(CCS) has been identified as

one of the key technologies to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the short- and medium-term time frame, specifically in fossil fuel-de-pendent industries. This promising technology is currently stimulating the expansion of the carbon cap-ture and storage industry [21].

The significance of future cap-ture and storage of CO2 for miti-gating climate change will nevert-heless depend on further factors, including financial incentives provided for implementation, and

whether the storage risks can be successfully managed.

CO2 storage can be used in large point sources. The CO2 captured can be compressed and transported for storage in geologi-cal formations, , in mineral carbo-nates, or for use in industrial processes.

CCS requires additional energy for capture, transport and storage and reduces the overall efficiency of CCS, e.g. of power plants to approximately 80 % to 90 %.

Even with an optimistic forecast of a world storage capacity for CO2 of 900 years and considering the undisputable storage risks, CCS is still likely to be an import-ant intermediate solution. In an ideal world the captured CO2 will be carbonized or reused for indus-trial purposes, for instance, for the production of synthesis gas ( power to gas).

CLIMATE ADAPTAION

Meteorological and hydrologi-cal shifts resulting from climate change are increasingly accompa-nied by extreme events that cause physical impacts on infrastructure leading to closures of roads, bridges and tunnels, and to the loss of communication or power supply. Impacts of storms, floods and geohazards such as mud-flows, debris avalanches, lands-lides, rockslides and mountain

creep cause destruction of trans-port infrastructure, energy infra-structure, and buildings.

Prolonged droughts lead to

water shortages in power produc-tion and water supply. These impacts affect people and commu-nities, disrupt businesses and cause loss of financial assets.

Adaptation measures to en-hance resilience involve, for instance, constructing dams and retention areas to cope with rising sea levels and to prevent floods, implementing water supply systems in arid areas and adapt-ing existing transport infrastructure by means of drainage systems and integrated urban drainage.

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KEY COMPETENCIES FOR FUTURE PROJECT PLANNING AND ADAPTATION

DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY

Unpredictable climate change effects disrupting infrastructure due to floods, storms, extreme temperatures, droughts or fires have been on the rise for several decades [20, 22]. In the future, the likelihood of such events is pre-dicted to increase even further. While changes, such as rising sea levels can be predicted qualita-tively, the future extent of such large-scale shifts in the environ-ment remains largely obscure. Other phenomena, such as the occurrence and magnitude of extreme events will always remain highly unpredictable.

Thus, when planning infra-structure projects with a long rea-lization and project lifetime, it will be of critical importance to incor-porate several probable future scenarios into project planning. Moreover, it will be important to allow for flexibility, so projects can later easily be adjusted to a range of future scenarios. For instance, given that future scenarios con-cerning the likelihood, extent and type of floods that are expected vary greatly between different cli-mate projections, flood control in-frastructure needs to be planned in such a way that it can be modularly adjusted to the actual

developments (Figure 3). Hence, project planning in the light of cli-mate change requires a no regrets planning approach [23], using se-veral possible future scenarios as a starting point for developing the best solution at the present time, which can easily be adapted to developments in the future expected to become reality. This highlights that planning future pro-jects under uncertainty requires completely novel ways of thinking as compared to business as usual planning.

16Figure 3: Comparison of business as usual (BAU) planning and no regrets planning (adapted from [24]).

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KEY COMPETENCIES FOR FUTURE PROJECT PLANNING AND ADAPTATIONINNOVATION

Facing the new challenges posed by climate change often requires entirely novel solutions, as many of the approaches that were adopted in the past and used for a long time will no longer con-form to a sustainable climate stra-tegy. Examples of necessary inno-vations include hybrid solutions, such as seawater desalination plants that provide water supply to areas facing increasing droughts, powered by renewable energy sources.

Other examples are integrated

solutions for port cities that offer resilience against extreme we-ather events and protect port areas against rising sea levels, while also creating space for business and recreation purposes. Furthermore, substantial develop-ments are beginning to take shape in the transport sector. For instance, due to the rising trend of sharing instead of owning, new “smart” technologies and autono-mous vehicles will more and more connect public and private trans-port and may pave the way for new mobility services and revolu-tionize travel.

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KEY COMPETENCIES FOR FUTURE PROJECT PLANNING AND ADAPTIONMANAGING CONFLICTS AND PROMOTING COOPERATION

Conflict management will be central to any climate change stra-tegy. First, rapid changes, as tho-se occurring in the wake of climate change, typically cause increased conflicts. Second, while much of the technology needed to mitigate and adapt to climate change already exists, it is often not imple-mented because of conflicts of interest among political, economic, social and environmental interest groups. Hence, a key to success-fully implementing technological adaptation and change involves dealing efficiently with emerging conflicts and fostering opportuni-ties for cooperation

The need for organizations to adapt to changing economic and environmental conditions due to climate change is also gaining im-portance. As dealing with climate change involves rapid changes in many respects, achieving resilien-ce in the context of climate change will require a cultural shift within and among institutions and enter-prises. To face this challenge, a business culture that promotes innovation, efficient communica-tion among all levels of organi-zation and professional conflict management within and between

organizations is essential. An open conflict culture allowing for the necessary feedback among different levels of organization can facilitate quick responses to the constantly changing eco-nomic and social environment. The numerous aspects invol-ved in mitigating or adapting to climate change result in ample opportunities for cooperation. For instance, the complexity in-volved in developing, planning and implementing innovative solutions for industry and infra-structure calls for an intensified cooperation between engineering companies, the scientific com-munity, climate change service providers, the insurance industry, finance institutions and govern-mental and non-governmental organizations.

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KEY COMPETENCIES FOR FUTURE PROJECT PLANNING AND ADAPTIONDECISION MAKING

Given that climate change is a global issue, the question how de-cisions to reduce global warming can reasonably be made on the level of enterprises is of vital importance. Despite overwhel-ming evidence to the contrary [6-9, 22, 25, 26], the conviction that global warming does not exist or has natural causes continues to persist among some people and decision makers. Yet a range of undisputable consequences of global warming, such as melting glaciers, rising sea levels, coral

bleaching and a growing number of extreme weather events can be observed worldwide. The associ-ated negative repercussions for people and the economy are fue-ling climate change skepticism and fuel worldwide activities to minimize further climate change. This trend is further enhanced by growing scientific evidence about the relationships between climate change and other environmental effects, such as the frequency of extreme weather events [22] and by continuously improved projec-tions on future climate change. International agreements, high-le-

vel decisions on direction by poli-tical leaders, the strategies of key economic leaders, and the activi-ties of NGOs and grassroots movements are increasingly driving climate change mitigation and adaptation activities towards future sustainability.

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CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY

Assuming corporate responsi-bility by pursuing a sustainable business policy that acknowledges the environmental and social implications of economic action is becoming increasingly critical for companies to demonstrate responsibility thereby promoting their reputation [27]. A company’s commitment to combatting climate

change and to safeguarding a public good, such as a stable cli-mate, can further enhance this effect and also provide a competi-tive advantage. Investments in demonstrating corporate respon-sibility by showing a credible com-mitment to a sustainability stra-tegy are therefore critical for future business success.

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PROJECT PLANNING UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE CONDITIONS

Alternative technologies and an innovative mindset in project planning and adaptation are of vital importance for coping with the challenges of global warming. Addressing the involved uncerta-inties requires a structured appro-ach, which shall be exemplified by the following five-step process.

Five steps to project planning and adaptation under climate change conditions (adapted from the World Bank [23]):

STEP 1: SCOPING

• What are the design options?• Is the project design flexible

in time and space?• Is it possible to estimate the

likelihood of future scenarios?

• What are the interdependencies of the project (socio-economic, political, environmental)?

• What are the uncertainties of the project (climatological, demographic, political, economic, and environmental perspective)?

STEP 2: RISK IDENTIFICATION AND CLIMATE IMPACT PROJECTIONS

• What are the climate-related risks in the respective region for each of the relevant clima-te hazards (temperature, pre-cipitation, flooding, drought, sea level change, wind)?

• Is climate a major factor with regard to the project?

• How significant are the clima-te-related risks in relation to other project-related risks?

STEP 3: RISK ASSESSMENT

• What are the risks quantified as a function of magnitude of event and likelihood of occurrence?

• What are the site elements and systems that are subject to the greatest potential risks?

STEP4: OPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION

• What are the options to re-duce risks to bearable levels so climate change resilience and robustness can be achieved?

• What are the options to re-duce greenhouse gas emissi-ons (i.e. greenhouse gas re-duction analysis)?

• How can the project be desi-gned so that it can be modu-larly adapted to likely future

scenarios (no regrets planning)?

STEP 5: SELECTION OF SOLUTIONS

• What is the best low cost/high benefits option for project re-silience and robustness?

• What is the design option with the lowest greenhouse gas emissions (e.g. hybrid solu-tions coupled with renewable energy production)?

1. Scoping2. Risk identification3. Risk assessment4. Options for climate

change mitigation5. Selection of solutions

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CONCLUSION

The task of dealing with the challenges posed by global warming may appear to be over-whelming and prevent taking action. However, addressing the issue of climate change is pos-sible and it is evident that infra-structure planning and adaptation will be of key importance. The implications of climate change affecting the environment and hu-man life in many ways are crus-hingly complex. However, every problem, and this includes the challenge of combatting climate change, can be solved, provided it can be structured into mana-geable parts. This requires a shift in mindset when planning projects under uncertainty and dealing

with direct and indirect risks that often cannot be estimated quan-titatively. Coping with climate ch-ange requires a global effort. To ensure that the synergistic effects of cooperation needed to keep climate change in check become reality, efficient conflict manage-ment at all levels of society will be of critical importance.

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AUTHORS

Dr. Ralph Bergmüller coordi-nates interdisciplinary activities towards a climate change bu-siness strategy at ILF Consulting Engineers. He is an environmental and social impact assessment (ESIA) expert and a permitting manager with broad experience in international large-scale infra-structure projects. Ralph is also an assistant professor at the University of Neuchâtel in Switzerland. A focus of his current research is conflict management in the context of climate change to avoid the ‘tragedy of the com-mons’ [5, 28].

Andreas Schwarz is in charge of the business field Thermal Power Plants at ILF Austria, offe-ring professional services throug-hout the life cycle of a project, innovative solutions for clients, business setup, retrofitting and efficiency engineering services. Andreas regularly works in close cooperation with Vienna University of Technology, University of Stuttgart and the Austrian Institute of Technology. He is also well connected to industry representa-tives, manufacturers and opera-tors, to ensure good information exchange ensure and best practice solutions.

Dr. Stephan Tischler is the head of the Transport Department at ILF Austria, senior lecturer for transport and environment at the University of Innsbruck and Environmental Ombudsman for the district of Landeck. After several years of academic tea-ching, research and coordination at the research center “Alpine Infrastructure Engineering”, in 2015 he published a book about mobility, transport and land use in mountainous regions.

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