charts march 27

8/9/2019 Charts March 27

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March 26, 2010 United States: Portfolio Strategy

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 3

The charts we are watching: A look back and look ahead at dividend policy and growth

Exhibit 1: Top dividend tax rate expected to rise to 28.8% in 2013

as of March 25, 2010

Exhibit 2: Effective dividend yield declines as tax rate increases


Source: Treasury Department. Source: Treasury Department, Compustat, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Exhibit 3: Goldman Sachs top-down earnings and dividend estimatesas of March 25, 2010

Exhibit 4: Dividend swap market pricing in faster near-term growthas of March 24, 2010

Source: Compustat and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: Compustat and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

0

10

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1960

1965

1970

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2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

T

axRate(%)

Long-TermCapital Gains

Tax Rate

TopDividendTax Rate

15%

29%

GS Estimate(includes 3.8%

Medicare surcharge)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Dividen

dYield(%)

1.4%

2.0%

Dividend Yield

Effective Dividend Yield(tax-adjusted)

2.0%

1.7%

Operating EPS DPS

2009E 2010E Growth 2009 2010E Growth

Consumer Staples $9 $9 4 % $3.69 $3.96 7 %

Information Technology 10 11 7 1.89 2.02 7

Consumer Discretionary 5 5 5 1.51 1.62 7

Materials 1 2 69 0.71 0.74 4

Utilities 3 3 15 1.75 1.82 4Energy 5 10 93 2.70 2.79 3

Telecom Services 2 3 32 1.93 1.98 2Health Care 11 12 9 2.91 2.96 2

Financials 4 12 251 2.42 2.38 (1)Industrials 7 7 6 2.88 2.67 (7)

S&P 500 $57 $76 32 % $22.41 $22.94 2 %

2 %

3 %

4 %

5 %

6 %

7 %

8 %

2010E

2011E

2012E

2013E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2019E

2024E

S&P500DPS

growth(yearoveryear)

Swap MarketCurrent

Goldman SachsTop-DownDividendCurrent

Dividend Growth Expectations

Swap Market12-Feb-2010


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S&P 500 Performance

Exhibit 5: S&P 500 sector performance over the last weekas of March 25, 2010

Exhibit 6: S&P 500 price return and daily trading volume LTMas of March 25, 2010

Source: FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Exhibit 7: S&P 500 sector performance over time


Exhibit 8: BEST and WORST performing S&P 500 STOCKS BY SECTOR



(3.0)

(2.1)(0.7)

(0.4)

0.0

0.2

0.3

0.6

1.21.2

0.0

(4.0) (3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0

Energy

UtilitiesMaterials

Health Care

S&P 500

Telecom Services

Industrials

Consumer Staples

Information Tech

Cons DiscretionaryFinancials

1-week Total Return (%)

01

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

600700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

25-Mar-08

25-May-08

25-Jul-08

25-Sep-08

25-Nov-08

25-Jan-09

25-Mar-09

25-May-09

25-Jul-09

25-Sep-09

25-Nov-09

25-Jan-10

25-Mar-10

Sharestraded(billions)S

&P500PriceLevel

S&P 500 daily trading volume (rhs)

S&P 500 daily price level (lhs)

Total Return Percentage Change (%)

1-Week 1-Month 3-Month 6-Month YTD 12-Month

Industrials 0 % 8 % 11 % 19 % 12 % 70 %

Financials 1 10 10 10 11 73

Cons Discretionary 1 8 9 23 11 69

Consumer Staples 0 3 5 12 6 32

Health Care (0) 3 2 14 3 35

Information Tech 1 7 2 14 2 59

Materials (1) 6 0 11 1 51

Energy (3) 1 (3) 4 (2) 20

Telecom Services 0 6 (5) 3 (4) 9

Utilities (2) 1 (6) 3 (5) 19

S&P 500 0 % 6 % 4 % 13 % 5 % 46 %

BEST STOCKS WORST STOCKS

Return (%) Return (%)

Sector Ticker 1-week YTD Ticker 1-week YTD

Cons Discr LEN 9 % 42 % DTV (4)% 0 %

Consumer Staples WAG 4 (1) KR (4) 4

Energy PXD 1 11 CNX (9) (14)

Financials HST 6 25 MS (4) (2)

Health Care AET 5 10 GENZ (11) 4Industrials CAT 4 10 MMM (3) (1)

Info Tech NVLS 8 8 JBL (7) (5)

Materials TIE 12 27 NEM (6) 2

Telecom Services Q 5 27 AMT (4) (2)

Utilities SCG (0) 1 NRG (8) (14)

S&P 500 TIE 12 % 27 % GENZ (11)% 4 %


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S&P 500 Performance (contd)

Exhibit 9: TOP 10 performing SUB-SECTORS over the last weekas of March 25, 2010

Exhibit 10: BOTTOM 10 performing SUB-SECTORS over the last weekas of March 25, 2010


Exhibit 11: TOP 10 performing S&P 500 STOCKS over the last weekas of March 25, 2010 Exhibit 12: BOTTOM 10 performing S&P 500 STOCKS over the last weekas of March 25, 2010


3

34

4

4

4

4

4

45

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Homebuilding

Auto Parts & EquipmentCommercial Printing

Casinos & Gaming

Other Diversified Financial Services

Computer & Electron ics Retail

Drug Retail

Hotels Resorts & Cruise Lines

Semiconductor EquipmentConsumer Electronics


(7)

(7)

(6)

(5)

(5)

(4)

(4)

(4)

(4)(4)

(8) (7) (6) (5) (4) (3) (2) (1) 0

Coal & Con sumable Fuels

Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Gold

Oil & Gas Drilling

IPP & Energy Traders

Electroni c Manufacturing Services

Paper Products

Oil & Gas Exploration & Prod uction

Real Estate ServicesOil & Gas Refining & Marketing


Return (%)

Company Name Ticker Sector 1-week YTD

Titanium Metals TIE Materials 12 27

Lennar Corp LEN Cons Discr 9 42

Novellus Systems NVLS Info Tech 8 8

Cliffs Natural CLF Materials 7 50

Viacom Inc. VIA.B Cons Discr 6 12

Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. HST Financials 6 25

Citigroup Inc. C Financials 6 29

Starwood Hotels & Resorts HOT Cons Discr 6 23

KLA-Tencor Corp. KLAC Info Tech 6 (14)

Wyndham Worldwide WYN Cons Discr 6 27

S&P 500 Average (0) 7

Return (%)

Company Name Ticker Sector 1-week YTD

Genzyme Corp. GENZ Health Care (11) 4

Consol Energy Inc. CNX Energy (9) (14)

Baker Hughes BHI Energy (9) 11

Nabors Industries Ltd. NBR Energy (9) (14)

BJ Services BJS Energy (8) 11

NRG Energy NRG Utilities (8) (14)

Jabil Circuit JBL Info Tech (7) (5)

Range Resources Corp RRC Energy (7) (8)

Smith International Inc. SII Energy (7) 51

AES Corp. AES Utilities (7) (19)

S&P 500 Average (0) 7


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Earnings and Sales

Exhibit 13: EARNINGS GROWTH: S&P 500 bottom-up consensus estimatesas of March 25, 2010

Exhibit 14: SALES GROWTH: S&P 500 bottom-up consensus estimatesas of March 25, 2010


Exhibit 15: TOP-DOWN vs. BOTTOM-UP: Goldman Sachs vs. Consensusas of March 25, 2010

Exhibit 16: REVISIONS: S&P 500 consensus EPS revisionsas of March 25, 2010


2010E Earnings Growth Annual

1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE 2010E 2011E

Financials 561 257 181 173 238 47

Energy 1530 73 44 46 88 28

Materials 167 111 28 32 68 30

Consumer Discretionary 787 36 15 6 44 18

Information Technology 80 55 35 10 39 13

S&P 500 70 38 30 26 38 20

Utilities 8 10 6 24 10 5


Health Care (4) 4 4 17 5 10

Industrials (5) (3) 22 4 4 19

Telecom Services (11) (6) 3 12 (1) 9

S&P 500 (ex-Financials) 52 24 18 15 25 15

2010E Sales Growth Annual

1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE 2010E 2011E

Energy 48 38 30 24 34 14

Materials 25 24 15 8 18 8

Information Technology 13 14 11 7 11 8

S&P 500 11 11 11 7 10 7

Health Care 5 6 9 5 6 4


Consumer Discretionary 8 6 6 2 5 6

Industrials (3) 1 6 4 2 5

Telecom Services 1 2 0 1 1 1

Contribution to EPS Annual earnings growth ratesGS Top-Down EPS Bottom-up GS Top-Down Bottom-Up

2010E 2011E 2010E 2011E 2010E 2011E 2010E 2011E

Energy $10 $15 $10 $13 93 % 45 % 88 % 28 %

Materials 2 3 2 3 69 15 68 30

Telecom Services 3 3 2 2 32 1 (1) 9

Consumer Discretionary 5 5 7 8 5 5 44 18

Utilities 3 4 3 4 15 1 10 5

Information Technology 11 12 14 16 7 10 39 13

Industrials 7 8 7 8 6 16 4 19Health Care 12 13 12 13 9 4 5 10

Consumer Staples 9 9 9 10 4 3 6 9

S&P 500 ex-Financials 63 71 67 77 18 13 25 15

Financials Operating EPS 12 19 12 17 251 54 238 47

S&P 500 Operating EPS $76 $90 $79 $95 32 % 20 % 38 % 20 %

+ Provisions & Writedowns 5 1 NA NA (63) (82) NA NA

S&P 500 EPS ex-P&W 81 91 NA NA 13 13 NA NA

75

76

77

78

79

80

31-Dec

31-Jan

28-Feb

31-Mar

30-Apr

ConsensusBottom-Up

$79

GoldmanSachs

$76

S&P 500 2010E EPS


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Revisions

Exhibit 17: EARNINGS and SALES REVISIONSAggregate dollars % change, as of March 25, 2010

Exhibit 18: Stocks with the most POSITIVE and NEGATIVE EPS REVISIONSas of March 25, 2010

Source: FirstCall, I/B/E/S, FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: FirstCall, I/B/E/S, FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Exhibit 19: S&P 500 1-Month Earnings Revisions Sentiment


Exhibit 20: 1-Month Earnings Revision Sentiment by SECTOR


Source: FirstCall, I/B/E/S, FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: FirstCall, I/B/E/S, FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

EPS REVISIONS SALES REVISIONS1 month 3 month 1 month 3 month

10E 11E 10E 11E 10E 11E 10E 11E

Materials 0.8% (0.3)% 4.9 % 4.2 % 0.4 % 0.5 % 4.1 % 3.2 %

Consumer Discretionary 0.6 0.3 6.9 4.3 0.2 0.5 1.8 1.4

Information Technology 0.4 0.5 8.4 7.2 0.5 0.6 5.5 6.0

Industrials 0.2 0.6 2.7 3.1 0.2 0.1 1.0 1.5

Health Care (0.0) 0.1 (0.4) (0.2) 0.1 (0.1) 1.0 0.9

Consumer Staples (0.0) 0.1 0.1 (0.2) 0.0 (0.2) 0.8 1.1

S&P 500 (0.1) 0.1 2.1 1.3 0.2 0.3 1.7 0.2Energy (0.4) (0.1) 1.3 (0.8) 0.5 0.7 1.2 (6.1)

Utilities (0.5) (0.6) (1.5) (2.2) NM NM NM NM

Telecommunication Services (0.9) (0.6) (5.0) (5.9) 0.0 0.1 0.1 (0.0)

Financials (0.9) 0.0 (1.3) (1.3) NM NM NM NM

POSITIVE EPS REVISIONS NEGATIVE EPS REVISIONS1 month 3 month 1 month 3 month

Ticker Revis. Return Revis. Return Ticker Revis. Return Revis. Return

X 613 % 17 % (63)% 10 % TSO (47)% 14 % (89)% 2 %

TIE 51 36 24 24 MWW (40) 20 NM (3)

DHI 29 5 NM 17 GT (37) 4 (60) (10)

LEN 23 11 55 35 AIG (31) 25 (13) 15

ODP 18 16 63 14 DFS (26) 14 (28) 3

MU 18 14 41 2 PHM (19) 9 13 14

AMD 17 14 64 (9) FHN (19) 10 NM 3

CMA 17 7 54 27 SUN (17) 10 (36) 12

WY 14 7 23 0 HIG (17) 14 (11) 18

SNDK 12 23 92 16 STT (14) 2 (13) 2

S&P 500 (0)% 6 % 2 % 4 % (0)% 6 % 2 % 4 %

(30)%

(20)%

(10)%

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

(60)%

(40)%

(20)%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

S&P500Mo

nthly%Return

1-MonthRe

visionSentiment

1-Month 2010 EPS Revision Sentiment (lhs)[(# pos. revisions - # neg. revisions)/ total revisions]

Price Performance (rhs)

S&P 500

(15)%

(10)%

(5)%

0 %

5 %

10 %

15 %

20 %

25 %

ConsumerDiscr

Industrials

InfoTech

S&P500

HealthCare

Materials

ConsumerStaples

Energy

Financials

Utilities

TelecomServices

Earnin

gsSentiment

1-Month Earnings Revision Sentiment by Sector[(# pos. revisions - # neg. revisions)/ total revisions]


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Style and Size

Exhibit 26: Total return by style and size over timeas of March 25, 2010

Exhibit 27: Total return by SECTOR for S&P 500 vs. Russell 2000as of March 25, 2010


Exhibit 28: GROWTH vs. VALUE relative performance over timeRussell 1000 Growth vs. Value, as of March 25, 2010

Exhibit 29: LARGE CAP vs. SMALL CAP relative performance over timeS&P 500 vs. Russell, as of March 25, 2010


Total Return Percentage Change (%)1-Week 1-Month 3-Month 6-Month YTD

Large Cap vs. Small Cap

S&P 500 0 6 4 13 5

Russell 2000 (0) 8 7 14 9

Large vs. Small (bps) 36 (201) (344) (139) (385)

Growth vs. Value

Russell 1000 Growth (0) 5 3 14 4

Russell 1000 Value (0) 6 5 12 6

Growth vs. Value (bps) 5 (86) (166) 192 (204)

Weight (%) 1-Week (% Return) YTD (% Return)Sector SP500 R2000 SP500 R2000 (bps) SP500 R2000 (bps)

Energy 11 5 (3) (5) 177 (2) 1 (280)

Information Tech 19 18 1 (1) 173 2 7 (451)

Financials 17 21 1 0 92 11 12 (45)

Materials 3 5 (1) (2) 88 1 5 (335)

Telecom Services 3 1 0 (1) 76 (4) (3) (121)

Industrials 10 15 0 (0) 53 12 6 645

Cons Discretionary 10 14 1 1 44 11 18 (745)

Consumer Staples 11 3 0 0 (12) 6 8 (238)

Utilities 3 3 (2) (1) (79) (5) 2 (622)

Health Care 12 14 (0) 1 (92) 3 9 (540)

Index 100 100 0 (0) 36 5 9 (385)

85

90

95

100

105

110

Jan-0

8

Mar-

08

May-0

8

Ju

l-08

Sep-0

8

Nov-0

8

Jan-0

9

Mar-

09

May-0

9

Ju

l-09

Sep-0

9

Nov-0

9

Jan-1

0

Mar-

10

May-1

0

Value outperforming

Growth outperforming85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

101

103

105

Jan-0

8

Mar-

08

May-0

8

Ju

l-08

Sep-0

8

Nov-0

8

Jan-0

9

Mar-

09

May-0

9

Ju

l-09

Sep-0

9

Nov-0

9

Jan-1

0

Mar-

10

May-1

0

S&P 500 outperforming

Russell 2000 outperforming


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Global Equity Market and Mutual Fund Performance

Exhibit 30: GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET performance over the past weekas of March 25, 2010

Exhibit 31: US EQUITY MUTUAL FUND performance vs. benchmarkas of March 25, 2010

Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: Lipper, Factset, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Exhibit 32: GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET performance over timeas of March 25, 2010

Exhibit 33: International and other MUTUAL FUND performanceas of March 25, 2010

Source: FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: Lipper, FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

(3)

(2)

(2)(2)

(1)

(1)

(0)

(0)

0

0

0

(0)

(3) (2) (1) 0 1

Brazil (Bovespa)

Chin a (MSCI China)

Spain (IBEX 35)

Japan (Nikkei)

UK (FTSE 100)

Europe (DJ Stoxx 600)

Australia (ASX 200)

France (CAC 40)

U.S. (S&P 500)

Korea (KOSPI)

Germany (Dax)

Mexico (Bolsa)

% Weekly price change

Avg. Total Return (%) Stdev No. of AUM

Lipper Indices 1-week YTD 1-Week YTD Funds $ bil

Large-Cap Core Funds (0.1) 4.4 0.3 1.3 30 252

Benchmark: S&P 500 0.0 5.0

Out / (Underperformance) (bps) (11) (63)

Large-Cap Growth Funds (0.2) 3.9 0.2 1.2 30 248

Benchmark: Russell 1000 Growth (0.0) 4.3


Large-Cap Value Funds (0.1) 5.2 0.3 1.3 30 224Benchmark: Russell 1000 Value (0.1) 6.3


Small-Cap Core Funds (0.6) 7.4 0.5 2.4 29 NA

Benchmark: Russell 2000 (0.4) 8.9


Price Return (%) USD

1-Week 1-Month 3-Month 2010 YTD 2009

Mexico (Bolsa) 0 8 5 8 52

U.S. (S&P 500) (0) 6 3 5 23

Japan (Nikkei) (2) 3 2 3 16

Korea (KOSPI) 0 8 3 2 62

Australia (ASX 200) (0) 10 5 2 69UK (FTSE 100) (1) 6 (1) (2) 37

Europe (DJ Stoxx 600) (1) 7 (2) (3) 32

Brazil (Bovespa) (3) 5 (1) (4) 144

China (MSCI China) (2) 4 (2) (4) 63

Germany (Dax) 0 9 (4) (4) 28

France (CAC 40) (0) 8 (5) (5) 26

Spain (IBEX 35) (2) 8 (14) (14) 34

Average (1) 7 (1) (1) 49

Avg. Total Return (%) Stdev No. of AUM

Lipper Indices 1-week YTD 1-week YTD Funds $ bil

International Equity

Global Funds (1) 2 0.5 2.0 30 181

International Funds (1) 0 0.4 2.3 30 378

European Funds (1) (1) 0.6 2.9 10 18

Emerging Market Funds (1) 1 0.5 1.4 29 NA

Real Estate and Natural Resources

Real Estate 1 11 0.3 1.3 30 37

Natural Resource (4) (3) 0.7 1.2 9 NA

Fixed Income

General U.S. Government Funds Index (1) 1 0.8 0.5 30 NA

A Rated Bond Funds Index (1) 2 0.4 0.8 29 NA

BBB Rated Funds Index (1) 2 0.8 1.4 30 NA


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Risk and Dispersion

Exhibit 39: Goldman Sachs Risk BarometerIndex is number of standard deviations from the average * 100

Exhibit 40: VIX Volatility Indexas of March 25, 2010

Note: Metrics included are implied option volatility (S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100), normalized skew, highyield credit spreads, credit derivative swap spreads, mutual fund net flows, and cash levels.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Exhibit 41: S&P 500 stock and sector average correlationas of March 25, 2010

Exhibit 42: Credit Default Swaps, 5-Year On-the-run Spreadsas of March 25, 2010


(300)

(200)

(100)

0

100

200

300

400

Dec-94

Nov-95

Nov-96

Nov-97

Nov-98

Nov-99

Nov-00

Nov-01

Nov-02

Nov-03

Nov-04

Nov-05

Nov-06

Nov-07

Nov-08

Nov-09

Nov-10

Risk Aversion

Increasing

Risk AversionDecreasing

25-Mar-10

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

Jan-90

Jan-92

Jan-94

Jan-96

Jan-98

Jan-00

Jan-02

Jan-04

Jan-06

Jan-08

Jan-10

Jan-12

81All time hig h on 20-Nov-08

18

25-Mar-10

0.73

0.38

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Dec-89

Dec-90

Dec-91

Dec-92

Dec-93

Dec-94

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Dec-96

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Dec-98

Dec-99

Dec-00

Dec-01

Dec-02

Dec-03

Dec-04

Dec-05

Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09

Dec-10

AverageCorrelation

Average stock correlation

Average sector correlation

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Oc

t-07

Dec-0

7

Fe

b-0

8

Apr-

08

Jun-0

8

Aug-0

8

Oc

t-08

Dec-0

8

Fe

b-0

9

Apr-

09

Jun-0

9

Aug-0

9

Oc

t-09

Dec-0

9

Fe

b-1

0

Apr-

10

HighYieldCDX(bps)

InvestmentGra

deCDX(bps)

CDX (IG) (lhs)

CDX (HY) (rhs)


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Goldman Sachs Recommendations and Forecasts

Exhibit 43: Goldman Sachs Recommended Sector Weightings (a)as of March 25, 2010

Exhibit 44: Goldman Sachs US Economics quarterly GDP forecastsas of March 25, 2010

(a) Sector weightings last rebalanced December 7, 2009.


Exhibit 45: Goldman Sachs COMMODITY and CURRENCY forecastsas of March 25, 2010 Exhibit 46: Goldman Sachs US Economics forecastsas of March 25, 2010


Sector WeightingsTotal Goldman Sachs Current GS GS

Return Recommended S&P 500 Overweight / Alpha

Sectors YTD Sector Weightings Weight Underweight YTD

Information Technology 2 % 19 % 300 bp (8)bp

Energy (2) 11 300 (19)

Materials 1 3 200 (7)

Consumer Staples 6 11 0 0

Industrials 12 10 0 0

Financials 11 17 0 0

Telecom Services (4) 3 (100) 9

Consumer Discretionary 11 10 (200) (11)

Utilities (5) 3 (200) 18

Health Care 3 12 (300) 5

S&P 500 5 % 100 % 0 bp (13)bp

Overweight

Neutral

Underweight

2.52.0

1.5 1.5

2.53.0

3.5 3.5

0.0 %

0.5 %

1.0 %

1.5 %

2.0 %

2.5 %

3.0 %

3.5 %

4.0 %

Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4E Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4EUSGDP

Growth(qoqannualized

%)

2010 2011

Forecasts

units Current 3m 6m 12m

Energy

WTI Crude Oil $/bbl 80.53 92.00 97.00 96.50

NYMEX Nat. Gas $/mmBtu 3.98 5.50 5.50 6.00

RBOB Gasoline $/gal 2.20 2.44 2.50 2.39

Metals

LME Copper $/mt 7435 7850 8045 7825

London Gold $/troy oz 1093 1260 1315 1390

London Silver $/troy oz 16.79 21.00 21.90 23.20

Currencies

Euro / US Dollar EUR/$ 1.33 1.45 1.45 1.35

US Dollar / Yen $/ 92.7 92.0 94.0 98.0

Sterling / US Dollar /$ 1.49 1.67 1.73 1.61

% Annual Change2009E 2010E 2011E

Real GDP (2.4)% 2.6% 2.4%

Consumer Spending (0.6) 1.9 1.4

Total Fixed Investment (18.3) (2.4) 4.2

Business Fixed Investment (17.7) (3.2) 2.3

Residential Investment (20.4) 0.7 10.9

Federal Government Spending 5.2 3.9 4.0Exports of Goods and Services (9.6) 12.1 7.5

Imports of Goods and Services (13.9) 7.8 2.5

Core CPI 1.7 0.8 0.1

Unemployment Rate 9.3 9.8 10.1

Fed Funds Rate 0.1 0.2 0.2

2-year Treasury Rate 0.9 0.9 2.0

10-year Treasury Rate 3.8 3.3 4.0


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March 26 2010 United States: Portfolio Strategy


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Recent US Portfolio Strategy

Please contact your Goldman Sachs salesperson for access to additional research or if you wish to be added to the US Portfolio

Strategy research distribution list.

Exhibit 51: Recent research from US Portfolio Strategy

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Latest Market Research Publication Date

US Sector View s: Global vs. Domestic tug-of-w ar w ithin the US equity market March 25, 2010

US Portfolio Strategy: Using Sharpe Ratios to enhance fund returns March 19, 2010

US Thematic View s: GARP Update February 28, 2010

US Equity View s: 4Q Earnings preview : Earnings rise, sales trough, margins expand January 19, 2010

US Portfolio Strategy 2010 Outlook: Cyclical start; defensive finish December 7, 2009

Franchise Research Publication Date

Global Dividend Sw ap Monitor: Updating our bottom-up dividend forecasts follow ing the results season March 5, 2010

Global Portfolio Strategy: Macro Conference - Asia 2010: Takeaw ays February 12, 2010

Global Portfolio Strategy: The New BRICS Nifty 50 - EM and DM Baskets November 4, 2009

Periodical Research Description Frequency Timing / Recent Release

Hedge Fund Trend Monitor Analysis of hedge fund holdings and positioning Quarterly February 22, 2010

S&P 500 Beige Book Qualitative assessment of S&P 500 quarterly earnings reports Quarterly February 5, 2010

Strategy Baskets Overview of US Portfolio Strategy thematic baskets Quarterly August 19, 2009

US Monthly Chartbook Monthly report on where to invest in the S&P 500 Monthly March 2, 2010

US Weekly Kickstart Five minute guide to the US equity market Weekly Friday PM

Where to Invest Now Marketing presentation highlighting recent research and best trade ideas Monthly March 5, 2010


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charts march 27

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