characteristics of wind and solar power for decision makers jay apt tepper school of business and...
TRANSCRIPT
Characteristics of Wind and Solar PowerFor Decision Makers
Jay Apt
Tepper School of Business and
Department of Engineering & Public Policy
Carnegie Mellon University
June 13, 2011
Briefing given to 2 sets of decision makers
• FERC staff May 26, 2011– Jamie Simler, the Director of FERC’s Office of Energy Policy
and Innovation;– Arnie Quinn, the Director of the Division of Economic and
Technical Analysis within the FERC Office of Energy Policy and Innovation;
– Ed Murrell, the Deputy Director of the Division of Economic and Technical Analysis
– Aaron Bloom, the "forecasting guy" in that office.
• Equinox Energy Summit June 5-9, 2011– 17 Ontario and Canada federal government ministers and
staff
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3
Hydroelectric
Wind
Geothermal
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Operating Wind FarmsWind farms > 5 MW
5
Land use can be benign
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Or, Not so Benign
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Extreme wind events are much more likely than predicted by Gaussian statistics
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Gaussian (normal) statistics
Actual Texas data
Wind sometimes fails for many days
5 10 15 20 25 30Date in January 2009
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
WM
BPA Balancing Authority Total Wind Generation
Sum of ~1000 turbines
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15 Days of 10-Second Time Resolution Data
Smoothing by Adding Wind Farms… has diminishing returns
Source: Katzenstein, W., E. Fertig, and J. Apt, The Variability of Interconnected Wind Plants. Energy Policy, 2010. 38(8): 4400-4410.
Hydroelectric Power has Droughts
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Wind Probably Does Too
Source: Katzenstein, W., E. Fertig, and J. Apt, The Variability of Interconnected Wind Plants.
Energy Policy, 2010. 38(8): 4400-4410.
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Operating Solar PVUnits > 5 MW
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
1400000 1450000 1500000 1550000
Seconds since 00:00:00 Jan 1, 2007k
W
0
1000
2000
3000
250 750 1250
kW
(b)
Comparison of Wind with Solar PV
4.6 MW TEP Solar Array (Arizona)
Minutes
kW
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Nameplate capacityCapacity Factor: 19%
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CO2 and NOx from natural gas that fills in
+
+
+
1
2
n
=
Firm PowerVariable Power
Compensating Power
Time
Power
Gas
Wind
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Emissions Factors
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
(Penetration Factor)
CO
2 E
mis
sion
s (t
onne
s/M
Wh)
Expected
Predicted
(a) LM6000
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
(Penetration Factor)
NO
x Em
issi
ons
(kg/
MW
h)
Expected
Predicted
(b) LM6000
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Final Comments
• None of this means that wind or solar (if costs ever come down) can't be used at large scale, but wind/solar will require a portfolio of fill-in power (some with very high ramp rates, some with slow), good land use planning, and R&D to optimize emissions control for fast and deep ramping.
