overview of research in the carnegie mellon electricity ...electriconf/2008/pdfs/4-3 apt...research...
TRANSCRIPT
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Electricity Industry Center
Carnegie Mellon University
Overview of Research in the Carnegie Mellon
Electricity Industry Center
Jay AptTepper School of Business
and Department of Engineering & Public Policy
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Electricity Industry Center
Carnegie Mellon University
Overview of CEIC
• We are in our 7th year• 20 CMU faculty plus 5 associates elsewhere• 16 current Ph.D. students• 15 Ph.D. dissertations completed
– Former Ph.D. students now at U. of British Columbia, U. of Calgary, Duke, U. of Minnesota, Penn State, U. of Vermont, E3, EPA, LECG, RFF, WorleyParsons
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Electricity Industry Center
Carnegie Mellon University
• One of 27 Sloan Centers of Excellence • Created jointly with EPRI • Founded in August 2001 after competitive
proposals.• We define ‘Electricity Industry’ broadly to include
the companies that supply the equipment, all the organizations that build and operate the nation’s electric power system, agencies that shape and regulate the system as well as customers who use the power.
• Close cooperation with all stakeholders: Industry, regulators, government agencies, consumers, labor, national laboratories.
• Strategic focus on middle and long-term issues
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Electricity Industry Center
Carnegie Mellon University
Some research grows from tools developed here
• EIO-LCA• IECM• Risk Analysis• Risk Communication• Expert Elicitation
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Electricity Industry Center
Carnegie Mellon University
Research builds on our faculty’s expertise
– Public perceptions of CO2 sequestration– Sequestration regulatory environment– Renewables (wind, solar, biomass)– Air pollution, and human health– DG, DER, micro-grids– Agents, and control of cascading grid failures– ASPEN-based plant modeling– Energy efficiency
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Electricity Industry Center
Carnegie Mellon University
Strategic pieces
• Carbon dioxide control• Reliability and security• Renewables and their implications for reliability
and 4P emissions• Markets• DG, DER, efficiency, storage• Technology learning
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Electricity Industry Center
Carnegie Mellon University
Rough breakdown of journal articles
Carbon / climate, 29
Reliability & security, 17
Renewables, 14
Restructuring, 11DG, DR, storage, 11
Transmission, 6
Stakeholder processes, 3
Fuel cells, 2
3P control, 6
LCA, 6
Asset valuation, 6
Workforce, 2
Technology learning, 6
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Reducing the size of cascading failures through decentralized model predictive control
Paul HinesPh.D. Carnegie Mellon, 2007Assistant Professor, University of Vermont
NY City, Nov. 9, 1965© Bob Gomel, Life
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Agent
Local neighborhood,frequent communication
Extended neighborhood,Infrequent communication
No communicationwith external nodes
Agent
Local neighborhood,frequent communication
Extended neighborhood,Infrequent communication
No communicationwith external nodes
Autonomous
Agent neighborhoods
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Experiment: Can we reduce blackout sizes with DMPC agents?
• Create 100 extreme cascading failures from the IEEE 300 bus (node) test case
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Distribution of blackout sizesC
ost-w
eigh
ted
blac
kout
si
zes
(% o
f max
)
Mean
Median
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Electricity Prices and Costs Under Regulation and Restructuring
Prof. Seth Blumsack, The Pennsylvania State UniversityProf. Lester B. Lave, Carnegie Mellon University
Prof. Jay Apt, Carnegie Mellon University
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We studied the markup between cost and price
• Prices: Annual data from 1994 through 2005– 71 utilities– 37 states– Half the utilities participated in restructuring
• Wholesale competition (joining an RTO/ISO)• Retail competition• Divesting generation assets
– Rate data for each utility from detailed data collected every 6 months by EEI and published in “Average Rates and Typical Bills”
– Cents per kWh for each customer class, including fuel cost adjustment (as permitted by the regulators), less stranded cost recovery allowance (Competitive Transition Charge) = net rate
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We studied the markup between cost and price
• Costs: Annual data from 1994 through 2005 as filed on FERC Form 1 – Generation cost– Transmission & distribution costs– Cost of power purchases– Sales
• The effect of higher fuel prices are reflected in both the generation cost and the cost of power purchases, for each utility (rather than just a regional average fuel price that may not be what the utility actually pays)
• Retail prices and utility costs have been adjusted for inflation using the consumer and producer price indices
• Markup = Net Rate – Average Cost
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Costs have risen for both regulated & restructured
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Markups have increased more for restructured utilities
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Results
Rather than examining customer prices, we looked at the markup between the utilities’ cost and the price each charged. We used econometric regressions to investigate if restructuring explains what factors increased the markup.
1. Simply joining an RTO has had little effect on the markup.
2. Utility divestiture of generation has increased the markup by 1 cent per kWh.
3. Retail competition has increased the markup by 2½ cents per kWh.
The results indicate that most of the gains from restructuring have, thus far, gone to producers rather than consumers.
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Analyzing PJMAnalyzing PJM’’s s Economic Demand Response Economic Demand Response
ProgramProgramRahul Walawalkar, Seth Blumsack, Jay Apt,
Stephen Fernands
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Net Social Welfare AnalysisNet Social Welfare Analysis
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NSW calculations in 2006 for a DR NSW calculations in 2006 for a DR curve with slope of 0.15curve with slope of 0.15
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Electricity Industry Center
Carnegie Mellon University
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6 Months of Wind
Average Capacity Factor: 32%
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2.6 Days
30 Seconds
Power Spectral Density of Wind
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Electricity Industry Center
Carnegie Mellon University
Summary - wind• Even 104 summed 1.5 MW wind turbines have
fast and large power fluctuations.• The PSD of wind follows a Kolmogorov (f -5/3)
spectrum over 4 orders of magnitude.• Wind’s PSD matches that of load 2½ min – 1 hr.• A portfolio of slow, fast, and very fast sources is
the most economic way to match wind.• At large scale, wind is likely to have weather and
climate effects.
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Optimal Size for a Wind Transmission Line
Sompop PattanariyankoolLester Lave
Tepper School of Business
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1 345 689 1033 1377 1721 2065 2409 2753 3097 3441 3785 4129
Time
MW
Transmission Capacity
Wind power distribution
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Profit and transmission capacity
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1x 10
8
s (transmission factor)
Pro
fit ($
)
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Electricity Industry Center
Carnegie Mellon University
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
1400000 1450000 1500000 1550000
Seconds since 00:00:00 Jan 1, 2007kW
0
1000
2000
3000
250 750 1250
kW
(b)
4.6 MW TEP Solar Array (Arizona)
June 3, 2004
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Electricity Industry Center
Carnegie Mellon University
Nameplate capacityCapacity Factor: 19%
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Electricity Industry Center
Carnegie Mellon University
Comparison of wind and solar PV
Solar PV
Wind
Source: CEIC Working Paper CEIC-08-04, available at www.cmu.edu/electricity
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Electricity Industry Center
Carnegie Mellon University
3 Tracking Arrays (Arizona)
Scottsdale
Prescott
Yuma
~290 km~110 km
~280 km
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Electricity Industry Center
Carnegie Mellon University
Summary – solar PV• Solar PV in Arizona has fast and large power
fluctuations.• The capacity factor in NE Arizona over 2 years
was 19%.• The PSD of solar PV is significantly flatter than
that of wind, implying more required firm power.• There is no frequency region in which PV’s
fluctuations match the PSD of load.• 300 km separation provides very little smoothing
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Elisabeth A. Gilmore, Rahul WalawalkarPeter Adams, Jay Apt, and Lester Lave
Carnegie Mellon Electricity Industry Center (CEIC)
The Air Quality and Human Health Effects of Electric Energy Storage in
New York State
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EES Revenue opportunities4 Hr Energy Arbitrage in $/MWh
Average prices in summer (May - August) of 2001 – 2007Charging is from 1 – 6 am Discharging from 1 – 5 pm
NY WestCharging Price =
32.63 $/MWhDischarging Price =
61.22 $/MWhNet Revenue = 20.44 $/MWh
NY EastCharging Price =
33.96 $/MWhDischarging Price =
63.17 $/MWhNet Revenue = 20.44 $/MWh
NYCCharging Price =
41.07 $/MWhDischarging Price =
88.08 $/MWhNet Revenue = 36.75 $/MWh
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Charging and Displaced Plants
Plants displaced during discharging cycle
Plants used during charging cycle
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Upstate PM2.5 Concentrations Difference in mean daily PM2.5 (μg/m3) [July
21,2001] Coal Plant Charging Natural Gas Charging
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PM2.5 Concentrations in NYCDifference in mean daily PM2.5 (μg/m3) [July
21,2001] Distillate Fuel Oil Displaced Natural Gas Displaced
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Upstate NYC Net CostsCase I
(All Natural Gas) +3.80 -26.6 -22.9
Case II (Natural
Gas/Residual Fuel Oil)
+30.4 -26.6 +3.70
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Policy ImplicationsThe short-term benefits and costs of EES are a function of the characteristics of the systemBenefits from EES in NYC are large due to high population densitySystem net benefits depends on the mix of charging units (e.g. natural gas/residual fuel oil)NYISO needs to examine the marginal plants to evaluate the environmental benefits and costs of EES
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Technical and Economic Analysis of Syngas Storage in the Context of Flexible IGCC Operations
Current gasification operations: End use (turbine) tightly coupled with gasifier
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Syngas storage lowers the carbon priceat which IGCC is profitable
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Short run effects of a price on carbon dioxide emissions from US electric generators
Carnegie Mellon Electricity Industry Center
Adam Newcomer, Seth Blumsack†, Jay Apt,M. Granger Morgan and Lester Lave
Carnegie Mellon University
† now at Penn State University
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Midwest ISO
46
Short run
marginal price
Cumulative capacity (MW)
1. some shifts in dispatch(depends on marginal fuel priceheat rate and CO2 emission rate)
2. cost increase (depends on cumulative demandand CO2 price)
($/MW) $50 / tonne CO2
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Midwest ISO percent CO2 emissions reductions
47
‐0.5 ‐0.4 ‐0.3 ‐0.2 ‐0.1 0
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
18% 10%$35 / tonne CO2
10% –18% CO2 reductions
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48
Percent CO2 emissions reductionsPJM ERCOT
$35 / tonne CO2
11% –18% CO2 reductions 3% –6% CO2 reductions
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Mathematical real options analysis for CO2 under cap-and-trade (planning horizon 20 years)
Year of allowance price jump
CO2 Price($2007 permetric ton)
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Electricity Industry Center
Carnegie Mellon University
Thanks to all our funders, including:• EPRI• The A.P. Sloan Foundation• U.S. National Science Foundation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S.
Department of Energy, Tennessee Valley Authority, the U.S. Office of Naval Research, McDermott Technology, the ABB Group, Allegheny Conference on Community Development, Alliant Energy, Carnegie Bosch Institute, R.K. Mellon Foundation, National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Office of Energy and Technology Development, Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Team Pennsylvania Foundation, and others.
Special thanks to our CEIC Corporate Members and Associate Corporate Members:• APPA• Blue Source• Bonneville Power Authority• E3• Eastman Chemical• ELCON• FPL
www.CMU.EDU/Electricity
• Gasification Technologies Council• GE• JP Morgan Public Power Group• NRECA• Salt River Project• Southern Company