cemp gstad

1 1 1

Citywire Switzerland

Gstaad, 12-13 September 2013

2 2 2

Member of Investment Committee

Sandra Crowl

3 3 3

3 subsidiaries in Luxembourg, Milan, and Frankfurt and 2 offices: Madrid, and London

2 custodians: Caceis Bank France and BPSS Luxembourg

Carmignac Gestion

Key facts and figures

Founded in 1989 by Edouard Carmignac.

The equity capital is held by the Management and employees and amounts to over EUR 1,467 Million.

Carmignac Gestion has EUR 54 Billion in Assets under Management

225 staff including 25 Fund Managers and analysts.

Source: Carmignac Gestion, 30/08/2013

4 4 4

International management team Excellence, sharing and synergy are at the cornerstone of our quality management

5 5 5

An experienced management team Expert knowledge of all asset classes

Frédéric LEROUX

Rose OUAHBA

Laurent DUCOIN

Simon PICKARD

David FIELD

Laurent CHEBANIER Country Risk

Julien CHERON Quantitative Analyst

Charles ZERAH

Carlos GALVIS

Keith NEY

Caroline SLAMA

Pierre VERLÉ

François-Joseph FURRY

Samir ESSAFRI

Markus KULESSA

Xavier HOVASSE

David Y. PARK

Haiyan LI-LABBÉ

Edward COLE

Simon LOVAT

Antoine COLONNA Consumer

Matthew WILLIAMS Finance

Tim JAKSLAND Innovation

Vincent STEENMAN Industry

Didier SAINT-GEORGES

Sandra CROWL

Jean MÉDECIN

MULTI-STRATEGY

INTERNATIONAL BONDS

EUROPEAN EQUITIES

NATURAL RESOURCES EQUITIES

COMMODITY EQUITIES

GLOBAL ANALYSTS

Edouard Carmignac CIO

24 15 11

18 18 15 14 12 9

13 13 9 5

21 14 11 14 9

20 11

21 19 22 8

26 22 19

Team Leader Fund Manager

Analyst Years of experience

6 6 6

Emerging market pioneer

*Morningstar qualitative report: 30/09/2012

© Morningstar. All rights reserved.

Strong knowledge of local markets is assumed by the cultural diversity of the investment team

(10 nationalities and 12 spoken languages).

Qualitative research On the ground research is a crucial part of our fund management and a relevant element in the decision-making process. We meet all the companies from our portfolios at least once a year.

Tapping into the Emerging Universe since the company’s inception in 1989.

Carmignac Gestion has a high-quality team consisting of analysts and managers who, whether directly or not, have all built up sound expertize in these markets.

Morningstar*

7 7 7

Emerging Markets in a More Complex World

8 8 8

Global recovery under the constraint of deleveraging

Source: Bloomberg, 31/08/2013

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

?

US 10-year yields Global Manufacturing PMI

?

9 9 9

The Fed’s liquidity injections have not led to a strong increase in credit and money supply

Rebased 100 as of August 2008, seasonally adjusted

*GDP price deflator

Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, US Department of Commerce

Monetary base 350

Bank credit 99

Money supply 135

Inflation rate* +1,26%

%, annual change

10 10 10

International Investors’ Holdings of Emerging Market Local Debt has accelerated until mid year 2013 A structural trend behind the Fed’s quantitative easing programme

Source: Emerging Advisors Group, at 10/06/2013

Equities

Local debt

Foreign debt vs. equity portfolio

International investors’ holdings of emerging market local debt are

approaching those of equities

11 11 11

Has QE Tapering Now Been Factored In ?

Source: EPFR, SG Cross Asset Research/Global Asset Allocation

Net flows into EM bonds funds Net flows into EM Equity funds

3m

cu

mu

lati

ve n

et o

ufl

ow

s ($

bn

)

3m

cu

mu

lati

ve n

et o

ufl

ow

s ($

bn

)

12 12 12

A stronger correlation between Emerging Asset classes than in 2008

Source : Bloomberg , data unhedged EUR

80

85

90

95

100

105

1102013

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1102008

MSCI Emerging Markets JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Composite Index

13 13 13

Emerging countries

14 14 14

Emerging countries with Current Account Deficits are Vulnerable

Source : Credit Suisse, July 2013.

2013e Current Account Balance, % of GDP

Cu

rren

cy p

erfo

rman

ce a

gain

st U

SD,

year

-to

-dat

e

Mexico

Poland

Indonesia

Turkey

China

Hungary

South Korea

Russia Philippines

Thailand

Brazil India

South Africa

Currency performance / Current Account balance

15 15 15

Fundamentals in Emerging Markets are Stronger Now than in 1997

Source: Bloomberg, August 2013

12.5%

16.6%

42.9%

116.2%

16.7%

12.0%

30.2%

46.3%

25.6%

47.8%

3.3%

#N/A

13.3%

46.1%

7.7%

8.0%

16.0%

19.9%

5.0%

18.4%

South Africa

Brazil

China

Hong Kong

India

Indonesia

Israël

Malaisia

Russia

Thaïland

July 1997 May 2013

China

Indonésia

South Korea

Malaisia

Philippines

Taïwan

Thaïland

Share of Hard Currency debt (% of total debt outstanding)

1995-96 (average) 1997 2006-07 (average)

2012

Higher FX reserve coverage of imports and short term debt

More debt issued in local currency as a percentage of total debt

FX rates are more flexible

FX reserve as a percentage of GDP

Source: BIS, CEIC, Citi Research, August 2013.

Please note that the figure for Brazil is not available for July 1997.

16 16 16

We are not in 1997

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

China

Source :

Risk of NPLs rise with higher debt, diminishing marginal benefits to growth/profits of borrowing the higher debt goes

Liquidity risks increase with rising LTD, incentives for off balance sheet lending and shadow banking grow

Loans to Deposits %

Ban

k C

red

it t

o G

DP

% Taïwan

Hong-Kong

Singapore

Philippines

Indonesia

Thailand

Malaysia

Korea

China

Korea

Korea

Singapore

Indonesia

Indonesia

Philippines Philippines

Migration path

India

India India

Thailand

China

China

Taïwan

Hong-Kong Singapore

Taïwan Hong-Kong

Malaysia

Malaysia

Latest 1997 2007

17 17 17

49.6

49.8

50

50.2

50.4

50.6

50.8

51

China : Some Signs of Resilience to Emerging Markets Turmoil

Source : Bloomberg, août 2013.

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

11500

12000

12500

13000 Hang Seng China Entreprise Index Chinese manufacturing PMI

18 18 18

Emerging markets are 2 standard deviations cheap on trend versus developed markets

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Source: Bloomberg, 27/08/2013

*MSCI Emerging Markets vs MSCI World

Premium

Discount

Price/trailing book value Emerging Markets vs Developed Markets

19 19 19

2

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

DevelopedMarkets

EmergingMarkets

156

75

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

DevelopedMarkets

EmergingMarkets

88

42

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

DevelopedMarkets

EmergingMarkets

Emerging Markets vs. Developed Markets

Source: Carmignac Gestion, May 2013

Low Levels of Public Debt

Lower Private Debt

Stronger Potential Growth

20 20 20

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

3,58%

Fundamentals: Emerging Countries Experiencing Stable Inflation

Source : Carmignac Gestion, April 2013

Global inflation in Emerging markets

21

Carmignac Emerging Patrimoine

22 22 22

Bonds

Min 50%

Currencies

Carmignac Emerging Patrimoine: Our diversified emerging market Fund

Interest rate risk

-4 +10

A broad modified duration range

Equity risk

0% 50%

Flexible equity exposure

•Government and corporate bonds denominated in local and global currencies (USD, EUR, etc.)

• Thematic approach

• Large cap bias

Take advantage of the appreciation or protect

against the depreciation of currencies

Equities

Max 50%

23 23 23

Process is Both Top-Down and Bottom-Up

MACRO / THEMATIC VIEWS FORMED BY: Close interaction with cross-asset and fixed income teams

Daily investment meeting with whole team Scheduled meetings as well as constant interaction Carmignac Emerging Patrimoine as a cross-asset fund

Access to independent macro analysis Subscription to a wide array of independent macro expertise

MICRO / BOTTOM-UP VIEWS FORMED BY: Close interaction with sector specific analysts

Formal monthly sector meetings “dual coverage” of major parts of our universe

EM team analyst coverage Analyst responsibility is geographic ‘Maintenance’ coverage rejected in favour of idea generation Access to alternative information sources : GLG etc

24 24 24

Global management of derivatives strategies feeding upon each fund manager's expertise

SIMON PICKARD Equity market and equity derivatives

strategy

CHARLES ZERAH Bond, modified duration and global currency

exposure strategies

FRÉDÉRIC LEROUX Global macroeconomic input Choice of market-timing Determination of the best derivatives

instruments

STRATEGIES TO PROTECT THE PORTFOLIO OR TO INCREASE MARKET EXPOSURE ARE

DISCRETIONARY

COLLECTIVE DECISION MAKING PROCESS

Market risk identification and monitoring

Determine hedging strategies and market exposure adjustments

Instruments Market timing

25 25 25

The Emerging markets team

Head of emerging markets team – portfolio manager

Joined Carmignac Gestion in 2000

SIMON PICKARD 21 years experience

Co-portfolio manager of Carmignac Emerging Discovery

Covers Latin America Joined Carmignac Gestion in 2008

Co-portfolio manager of Carmignac Emerging Discovery

Covers Asia ex-Greater China Joined Carmignac Gestion in 2007

Analyst Covers Greater China Joined Carmignac Gestion in 2011

XAVIER HOVASSE 14 years experience

DAVID YOUNG PARK 9 years experience

HAIYAN LI-LABBÉ 13 years experience

Analyst Covers Eastern Europe, Middle East

and Africa (EMEA) Joined Carmignac Gestion in 2013

EDWARD COLE 12 years experience

26 26 26

A “Small” Team and Low Turnover Means a Big Commitment to On-The-Ground Research

JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE 1 China 2 3

China 4 South Africa Taiwan

5 6 7 Democratic

Republic of Congo

8 UAE

UAE, Qatar

9

10 Singapore

11

Nigeria

12 Singapore

13

China

14 China

UAE, Saudi

Arabia

15

Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam

16

17 China

18

India

19

Mexico

20 Russia

Turkey

21 India Thailand

22 China Russia

23

24 Liberia

Singapore South Korea, Taiwan

25 India

China Brazil

Taiwan, South Korea

26

27 Dominican Republic

28

Thailand, Philippines

China

China 29

30

31

David Park

Xavier Hovasse

Haiyan Li-Labbé

David Field

Simon Pickard

Simon Lovat

Antoine Colonna

Matthew Williams

Tim Jaksland

Fund Managers

Analysts

Edward Cole

Edouard Carmignac

Pierre Verlé

Carlos Galvis

27 27 27

Eastern Europe and Middle East 8.7 4.6

What did we do?

Carmignac Emerging Patrimoine : Equity part

Source: Carmignac Gestion

8.6 3.6 3.5 3.2

Major economies 15.2 17.0

China/Hong Kong/Macao Of which Chinese domestic stocks Brazil India

8.6 4.1 4.2 4.3

Future large economies

Of which

11.6 14.0 3.9 0.5 0.5

3.3 1.5 1.7

Mexico Turkey Indonesia

Export-based economies South Korea/Taiwan

Pan-African stocks

3.8 3.7

3.7 2.8

23/08/2013 Geographic breakdown as % 22/05/2013

28 28 28

What did we do?

Carmignac Emerging Patrimoine : Equity part


Consumer goods / food retail 10.5

Internet and Smartphones

Finance

12.4

Leisure and automobiles 4.8

Energy, materials and gold 3.8

Industrials 0.8

Equity thematic breakdown as %

9.7

8.4

6.4

4.6

0.9

22/05/2013 23/08/2013

10.7 12.0

29 29 29

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Carmignac Emerging Patrimoine: An Active Management of Equity Market Exposure

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Performances may vary over time.


Equ

ity

Exp

osu

re (

%)

Change in equity market exposure

Intervention by Mario Draghi

Maximum exposure

Chinese macroeconomic data starting to improve

30 30 30

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Equities Bonds Cash

39.7%

60.0%

0.4%

43.2%

51.4%

5.4%

29/03/2013 31/07/2013

Positioning of the Portfolio


Asset allocation

At 06/09/2013

Equity exposure: 35.6%

Modified duration: 0.13

Cash: 5.44%

31 31 31

What did we do?

Carmignac Emerging Patrimoine: Bond part

Our interest rate strategies: 1. Reduction in modified duration 2. Tactical short positions on US

Treasuries 3. Short positions on Korean

interest rates

*50% JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Composite Unhedged (EUR) + 50% MSCI EM NR (EUR)


Geographic breakdown of modified duration (basis points)

Modified duration: Carmignac Emerging Patrimoine: 0.0 (vs. 7,0 on 22/05/2013)

Reference indicator*: 4.6 (vs. 4.9 on 22/05/2013)

United States -215.1

Mexico 65.5

Colombia 6.4

Peru 6.1

Chile 17.2

Brazil 6.3

Israel 3.9

Poland 31.9

Thailand 10.6

Russia 44.2

South Korea -23.2

Philippines 35.0

32 32 32

What did we do?

Carmignac Emerging Patrimoine: Currencies

(1) 50% JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Composite Unhedged (EUR) + 50% MSCI EM NR (EUR)

(2) Including the HKD


DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

26/08/2013 Delta versus

reference indicator(1)

USD(2) 41.0% +30.3%

Euro 50.5% +50.5%

Other 0.4% -

Total 91.9% -

EMERGING COUNTRIES

26/08/2013 Delta versus

reference indicator(1)

EMOA -0.2% -22.1%

Latin America 5.6% -17.0%

Asia 2.7% -31.8%

Total 8.1%

33 33 33

What did we do?

Carmignac Emerging Patrimoine: Asset Allocation and Equity Exposure


23/05/2013 22/08/2013

Equity Exposure 47.9% 25.1%

Equities 42.1% 42.5%

Bonds 55.7% 48.7%

Cash 2.2% 8.8%

34 34 34

Carmignac Emerging Patrimoine: Performance since Inception

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Performances may vary over time. Source: Morningstar, Carmignac Gestion, 26/08/2013 Base 100: 31/03/2011

Carmignac Emerging Patrimoine

A EUR acc -2.56%

Reference indicator*

-3.99%

MSCI Emerging Markets -13.84%

*50% JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Composite Unhedged (EUR) + 50% MSCI EM NR (EUR) .

52-week volatility

Fund: 9.39%

Reference indicator*: 10.88%

Performance since inception (31 March 2011)

35 35 35

Carmignac Emerging Patrimoine: a«Patrimonial» Fund

Source: Morningstar, from 01/04/2011 to 31/07/2013

*Global Emerging Markets Allocation

Carmignac Emerging Patrimoine A EUR acc

CEMP Peers Class Average*

Global Emerging Markets Bond - Local

Currency

Global Emerging Markets Equity

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16%

Carmignac Emerging Patrimoine vs. Morningstar Class Averages

Perf

orm

ance

Volatility

Higher Performance

With a lower volatility

36 36 36

EM risk and opportunities

Global growth

Liquidity

Deflation forces Lower default risk Healthier balance sheet

Domestic demand led growth Attractive valuation

EM risk

EM opportunities

37 37 37

Global management of derivatives strategies feeding upon each fund manager's expertise

SIMON PICKARD Equity market and equity derivatives

strategy

CHARLES ZERAH Bond, modified duration and global currency

exposure strategies

FRÉDÉRIC LEROUX Global macroeconomic input Choice of market-timing Determination of the best derivatives

instruments

STRATEGIES TO PROTECT THE PORTFOLIO OR TO INCREASE MARKET EXPOSURE ARE

DISCRETIONARY

COLLECTIVE DECISION MAKING PROCESS

Market risk identification and monitoring

Determine hedging strategies and market exposure adjustments

Instruments Market timing

38 38 38

Simon PICKARD

2008 Carmignac Gestion

2005 - 2008 Argos Investment Managers, Genève ─ Fund Manager, PAN-European equities

2000 - 2005 Carmignac Gestion, Paris ─ Fund Manager, PAN-European equities

2000 CFA Charterholder

1996 - 2000 Jupiter Asset Management, Londres ─ Fund Manager, eastern European equities

1992 - 1996 John Swire & Sons, Hong Kong ─ International Executive

1992 Master of Arts - Trinity College, Cambridge

Head of Emerging Equities

39 39 39

Charles ZERAH


2004 - 2009 Credit Agricole Asset Management, London ─ Head of Emerging Market bonds

1999 - 2004 Crédit Lyonnais Asset Management, Paris ─ Senior fund manager : Emerging Market bonds

1995 - 1999 Axa Investment Managers, Paris ─ Junior fund manager : Emerging Market bonds

1995 Master in Banking and Finance DESS in Finance, University of Paris II Panthéon Assas

Fund Manager ─ Global Bonds

40 40 40

Frédéric LEROUX


2001 - 2003 BNP Paribas Equities and HSBC CCF Securities, ─ Consulting for equity market derivative strategies with institutional clients.

1997 - 2000 KHEOPS Finance SA ─ Founder and Chairman. Creation and management of a FCIMT open-ended fund

1995 - 1997 Carmignac Gestion ─ Portfolio manager, derivatives and risk management

1989 - 1994 Cava Finance and Banque Scalbert-Dupont, Portfolio manager

1988 Graduate from Institut d'Economie Scientifique et de Gestion (IESEG) in Lille

Global Fund Manager

41 41 41

This presentation has been conceived for information purposes only and is intended to professional clients. It cannot be used for another purpose than the one it has been conceived for, and cannot be reproduced, distributed or communicated, partly or entirely, to third parties without prior written approval from Carmignac Gestion. This presentation is not an investment advice nor is it contractually binding. Due to their simplification, the information contained in this presentation are inevitably partial. This document may be subject to changes, without prior notice.

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. The value of an investment can rise or fall with market fluctuations, and shareholders may lose, as the case may be, the amount originally invested.

The access to the products and services described in this presentation may be subject to restrictions towards some persons or countries.

The risks and fees relative to the products are described in the KIID (Key Investor Information Document).

The KIID, prospectuses and annual periodic reports of the Funds are available on our website www.carmignac.com and can be obtained free of charge from our representative and paying agent in Switzerland : Banque Genevoise de Gestion, 15, rue Toepffer, CH-1206 Geneva. The KIID must be given to the investor before any investment.

Copyright : The data published in this presentation are the exclusive property of their owners as mentioned on each slide.

Non contractual document, redaction achieved on 06/09/2013

Carmignac Gestion – Société Anonyme au capital de 15 000 000 € - RCS de Paris B 349 501 676

Agrément AMF n° GP 97-08 du 13/03/1997 24 Place Vendôme – 75001 Paris – Tel : +33 1 42 86 53 35

Disclaimer

http://www.carmignac.com/





cemp gstad

Economy & Finance

emerging markets

fund management

emerging universe

investment team

quality management

emerging market pioneer

highquality team

emerging advisors group