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CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd May 23, 2017 Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance Huhtamaki PPL ltd. No. of shares (m) 75.5 Mkt cap (Rs crs/$m) 1890/292.7 Current price (Rs/$) 250/3.9 Price target (Rs/$) 304/4.7 52 W H/L (Rs.) 326/226 Book Value (Rs/$) 64.9/1.0 Beta 1.1 Daily volume (avg. monthly) 35740 P/BV (CY17e/18e) 3.5/2.9 EV/EBITDA (CY17e/18e) 7.8/6.8 P/E (CY17e/18e) 20.6/16.5 EPS growth (CY16/17e/18e) 7.7/6.6/24.8 OPM (CY16/17e/18e) 11.2/10.5/10.9 ROE (CY16/17e/18e) 20.0/18.6/19.2 ROCE (CY16/17e/18e) 11.5/12.3/13.6 D/E ratio (CY16/17e/18e) 1.0/0.8/0.6 BSE Code 509820 NSE Code PAPERPROD Bloomberg HPPL IN Reuters HUHT.BO Shareholding pattern % Promoters 68.8 MFs / Banks / FIs 6.3 Foreign Portfolio Investors 1.0 Govt. Holding 0.0 Public & Others 23.9 Total 100.0 As on March 31, 2017 Recommendation BUY Phone: + 91 (33) 4488 0011 E- mail: [email protected] Figures (Rs crs) CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17e CY18e Income from Operations 1225.33 2037.38 2177.78 172131.23 2391.10 2674.22 Other Income 15.53 14.24 17.33 19.02 22.19 EBITDA (other income included) 134.58 246.53 259.56 270.09 313.68 Net Profit after MI and EO item 62.91 77.13 83.05 91.96 114.76 EPS (Rs) 9.48 10.61 11.42 12.18 15.20 EPS growth (%) 15.4 11.9 7.7 6.6 24.8 Equity 14.54 14.54 14.54 15.10 15.10 Company Brief Huhtamaki PPL is a leader in the flexible consumer packaging sector serving various large and mid corporate players in the FMCG business. HPPL offers a wide portfolio of packaging solutions that include flexible packaging, labeling technologies and specialized films for high barrier. Quarterly Highlights Net sales were hit negatively by 2.2% & 2.8% in Q1CY17 as compared to previous quarter and same quarter of the last year respectively. HPPL reported a volume de-growth of 6% & 2% in Q1CY17 as compared to Q4CY16 & Q1CY16 respectively. Again, for the same period other income increased by 16% & 41% respectively. In Q1CY17 raw material to sales ratio moved up by 300bps to 67.3% last quarter (y-o-y) but declined 60bps (q-o-q) as the company managed to pass on some increase in cost last quarter. Thanks to recent surge in crude oil prices OPMs have been hit hard in last few quarters- 15.1% in Q1CY16 to 10.1% in Q4CY16 to 10.3% in Q1CY17. Excise duty has gone up recently as excise exemption at its plants in Rudrapur and Parwanoo got over in H2CY16; no blanket exemptions exist now. Pummeled by lower margins, PBT plunged by 40.9% & PAT by dreadful 52.6% to 16.32 crores ($2.4m) as compared to 34.46 crores ($5.1m) in the same quarter a year before. Modest fall in interest cost (- 19.8%) and depreciation expense (-9.5%) did little to contain the carnage. The merger of Positive Packaging and Webtech Limited got completed in Q2 after the company received requisite approvals with the scheme of merger becoming effective from April 1, 2017. The stock currently trades at 20.6x CY17e EPS of Rs 12.18 and 16.5x CY18e EPS of Rs 15.20. Fortified by recovery in volume and margins, earnings would rise by 17.6% on average over the next two years, though most of these gains would not accrue before CY18. Undermining synergy benefits arising out of merger could not be pragmatic. Yet fluctuation in crude oil prices bears no little risk. On balance we advice buying a stock with revised target of Rs 304 (previous target: Rs 327) based on 20x CY18e earnings (peg ratio: 1.1) over a period of 9-12 months.

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Page 1: CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd - Business Standardbsmedia.business-standard.com/_media/bs/data/market...(Navi Mumbai) to Greater Mumbai Region by the end of 2017. Additionally, company is set

CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd May 23, 2017

Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance

Huhtamaki PPL ltd.

No. of shares (m) 75.5

Mkt cap (Rs crs/$m) 1890/292.7

Current price (Rs/$) 250/3.9

Price target (Rs/$) 304/4.7

52 W H/L (Rs.) 326/226

Book Value (Rs/$) 64.9/1.0

Beta 1.1

Daily volume (avg. monthly) 35740

P/BV (CY17e/18e) 3.5/2.9

EV/EBITDA (CY17e/18e) 7.8/6.8

P/E (CY17e/18e) 20.6/16.5

EPS growth (CY16/17e/18e) 7.7/6.6/24.8

OPM (CY16/17e/18e) 11.2/10.5/10.9

ROE (CY16/17e/18e) 20.0/18.6/19.2

ROCE (CY16/17e/18e) 11.5/12.3/13.6

D/E ratio (CY16/17e/18e) 1.0/0.8/0.6

BSE Code 509820

NSE Code PAPERPROD

Bloomberg HPPL IN

Reuters HUHT.BO

Shareholding pattern %

Promoters 68.8

MFs / Banks / FIs 6.3

Foreign Portfolio Investors 1.0

Govt. Holding 0.0

Public & Others 23.9

Total 100.0

As on March 31, 2017

Recommendation

BUY

Phone: + 91 (33) 4488 0011

E- mail: [email protected]

Figures (Rs crs)

CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17e CY18e

Income from Operations 1225.33 2037.38 2177.78 172131.23

2391.10

2674.22

Other Income 15.53 14.24 17.33 19.02 22.19

EBITDA (other income included) 134.58 246.53 259.56 270.09 313.68

Net Profit after MI and EO item 62.91 77.13 83.05 91.96 114.76

EPS (Rs) 9.48 10.61 11.42 12.18 15.20

EPS growth (%) 15.4 11.9 7.7 6.6 24.8

Equity 14.54 14.54 14.54 15.10 15.10

Company Brief Huhtamaki PPL is a leader in the flexible consumer packaging sector

serving various large and mid corporate players in the FMCG business.

HPPL offers a wide portfolio of packaging solutions that include flexible

packaging, labeling technologies and specialized films for high barrier.

Quarterly Highlights � Net sales were hit negatively by 2.2% & 2.8% in Q1CY17 as compared

to previous quarter and same quarter of the last year respectively.

HPPL reported a volume de-growth of 6% & 2% in Q1CY17 as

compared to Q4CY16 & Q1CY16 respectively. Again, for the same

period other income increased by 16% & 41% respectively.

� In Q1CY17 raw material to sales ratio moved up by 300bps to 67.3%

last quarter (y-o-y) but declined 60bps (q-o-q) as the company managed

to pass on some increase in cost last quarter. Thanks to recent surge in

crude oil prices OPMs have been hit hard in last few quarters- 15.1% in

Q1CY16 to 10.1% in Q4CY16 to 10.3% in Q1CY17.

� Excise duty has gone up recently as excise exemption at its plants in

Rudrapur and Parwanoo got over in H2CY16; no blanket exemptions

exist now.

� Pummeled by lower margins, PBT plunged by 40.9% & PAT by

dreadful 52.6% to 16.32 crores ($2.4m) as compared to 34.46 crores

($5.1m) in the same quarter a year before. Modest fall in interest cost (-

19.8%) and depreciation expense (-9.5%) did little to contain the

carnage.

� The merger of Positive Packaging and Webtech Limited got completed

in Q2 after the company received requisite approvals with the scheme

of merger becoming effective from April 1, 2017.

� The stock currently trades at 20.6x CY17e EPS of Rs 12.18 and 16.5x

CY18e EPS of Rs 15.20. Fortified by recovery in volume and margins,

earnings would rise by 17.6% on average over the next two years,

though most of these gains would not accrue before CY18.

Undermining synergy benefits arising out of merger could not be

pragmatic. Yet fluctuation in crude oil prices bears no little risk. On

balance we advice buying a stock with revised target of Rs 304

(previous target: Rs 327) based on 20x CY18e earnings (peg ratio: 1.1)

over a period of 9-12 months.

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[

Outlook & Recommendation

Industry Overview

Flexible packaging is at the forefront of important packaging trends in product protection, design and performance, consumer

convenience, and sustainability, all of which positively impact the environment, consumers, and businesses. The growth in food

& beverages and healthcare industries globally has attributed to the growth of plastic packaging market. Plastics currently

contribute to more than 40% of packaging needs of the country, and have successfully replaced traditional materials like paper

boards, metals, wood, glass, etc in many applications. They are widely used in packaging for agri, food and beverages, FMCG

items, pharmaceuticals, personal care products and other industries. A high growth of more than 15% in Indian retail industry is

driving the packaging market in India. The factors driving the retail industry in India include rise in per capita income,

increasing urbanization and increase in working women population. (Source: FICCI).

Plastic packaging is one of the fastest growing industries and stands at $700 billion globally. It has grown higher than GDP of

most countries. In developing countries like India, it grew at a CAGR of 16% in the last five years and touched $31.7 billion in

FY15. The Indian packaging industry, which constitutes about 4% of the global packaging industry, is expected to reach $72.6

billion in 2020 from $31.7 billion in 2015. The per capita packaging consumption in India is just at 4.3kgs, compared to 42kgs and

19kgs in developed countries like Germany and Taiwan respectively. However, in the coming year Indian packaging industry is

expected to grow by 18% p.a. wherein, the flexible packaging is expected to grow by 25% p.a. and rigid packaging to grow by

15% p.a. (Source: FICCI).

Source: FICCI Source: FICCI Source: IBEF

In global retail segment, F&B is one of the key growing segments and it falls among the biggest end users of packaging. Growth

in F&B sector will drive the packaging demand- thus plastic packaging- as it ensures food safety, quality and long shelf life. The

food packaging, which occupies over 70% of the global consumer flexible packaging market is growing by 4% on average in

volume terms and reached over 18.8 million tonnes in 2015 (Source: Smitherspira).

Beside F&B, the pharmaceutical sector is another major user of packaging which has become the major part of the drug delivery

system. With the overall drug approvals given by the USFDA to Indian companies doubling in FY16, the Indian pharma

packaging market is expected to grow 13-15% annually in the period 2015-2020 to $55 billion from $30 billion (2015). By 2020, it

is expected that India will become the third largest market for packaged goods in the world after China and the United States.

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Financials and Valuations

Revenues of the company grew by just ~7% in CY16 on a y-o-y basis, which stood at Rs 2177.78 crores ($324m) as compared to

Rs 2037.38 crores ($317.6m) in CY15. However, the revenue growth in Q4CY16 slid to 1% thereby generating revenue of Rs

522.52 crores ($77.4m) as compared to Rs 527.09 crores ($79.9) in the same quarter last year; this setback came after the political

move of demonetizing the high currency notes in India. Going further company’s overall revenue is expected to grow on an

average of 10.8% in the next two years to Rs 2391.10 crores ($370.4m) & Rs 2674.22 crores ($414.2m) in CY17e and CY18e

respectively. Currently, company’s EBITDA is around 11%, the merger synergies & the cost saving due to economies of scale

will help HPPL to sustain the current level of EBITDA margin in the long run.

Sources: HPPL, CD Equisearch Sources: HPPL, CD Equisearch

Company is in expansion mode and has set up a new flexible packaging manufacturing unit in Assam which has started its

commercial production by the end of Q1CY17. Further, the company’s subsidiary Webtech (now merged) has also set up a new

label manufacturing unit in Sikkim, to service its customers based in North East India. The capex incurred for the Assam and

Sikkim units was around Rs 45 crores ($7m). Further, a major sum of Rs 20 crores ($3.1m) will be incurred for relocation and

reconstruction of the main label manufacturing unit of Webtech Labels, primarily catering to pharma companies, from Mahape

(Navi Mumbai) to Greater Mumbai Region by the end of 2017. Additionally, company is set to incur a capex of Rs 60 crores

($9.3m) more in CY17, adding ~4000-5000 tonnes p.a. to the existing capacity of ~1 lac tones in CY17. Currently the capacity

utilization is around 80% and by squeezing another 9-10% of existing capacity the company expects to generate additional

turnover of Rs 150 crores ($23.2m) in near future.

Sources: HPPL, CD Equisearch Sources: HPPL, CD Equisearch

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Oil price are back above $50 as Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to retain supply cut deal to

axe 1.8m b/d in first half of the current year and which could be extended for further nine months, till March 2018. This

reduction of global oil supply in the overall world economy could increase the oil prices in the near term and thereby affecting

HPPL raw material cost. Due to volatility in raw material prices since Q2CY16 - accentuated by demonetization of high currency

notes in India, net profit grew by just 7.7% in CY16.

Sources: HPPL, CD Equisearch Sources: HPPL, CD Equisearch Sources: HPPL, CD Equisearch

The government’s move to scrap Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes has had an adverse impact in several FMCG companies.

About 70% stores reported that due to cash-crunch on both purchase as well as sales, their business has come down in

demonetization phase. There has been almost 40-50% impact on FMCG sales. Several companies faced a cut in production

during that time. Since Huhtamaki’s major revenue is generated from the FMCG sector being its major client, the impact of

demonetization on FMCG industry has adversely affected the revenue of the company in the last quarter of the CY16.

The stock currently trades at 20.6x CY17e EPS of Rs 12.18 and 16.5x CY18e EPS of Rs 15.20. Fortified by recovery in volume and

margins, earnings would rise by 17.6% on average over the next two years, though most of these gains would not accrue before

CY18. Undermining synergy benefits arising out of merger could not be pragmatic. Yet fluctuation in crude oil prices bears no

little risk. On balance we advice buying a stock with revised target of Rs 304 (previous target: 327) based on 20x CY18e earning

(peg ratio: 1.1) over a period of 9-12 months. For more info, refer to our Aug report.

Risks and Concerns

Volatility in raw materials At present raw material costs constitute nearly two third of HPPL’s revenues. Considering the outlook of petrochemicals, there

is a risk of high volatility. Volatility in raw material and energy prices (accentuated by fx movements) pose medium term

business risk.

Other Factors

Political, economic and financial market conditions can also have an adverse effect on the implementation of the company’s

strategy and on its business performance & earnings. Since a large portion of its revenue is derived from the FMCG sector, any

slowdown in this sector due to higher inflation or slowdown in rural spending can hit revenue growth. Flexible packaging

industry being a fragmented market can put HPPL into severe competition with other packaging companies like Uflex, Essel

Propack and TCPL Packaging.

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Cross Sectional Analysis

Company Equity* CMP MCAP* Sales* Profit* OPM (%) NPM (%) Int Cov ROE (%) Mcap/Sales P/BV P/E

Essel Propack 31 260 4080 2296 179 18.0 8.0 5.3 17.5 1.8 3.9 22.9

Huhtamaki 15 250 1890 2164 65 10.1 3.0 4.3 14.3 0.9 3.9 29.1

Jindal Poly 44 404 1771 6953 271 11.6 5.9 7.0 11.6 0.3 0.7 6.5

Uflex 72 355 2561 6068 329 13.7 5.4 3.2 9.5 0.4 0.7 7.8

Calculations on ttm basis *Figures in crores

Essel’s net profit declined by 7.6% in Q3 partially due to demonetization of high currency notes in India which impacted revenue

booking from AMESA region. Europe (excluding EDG) showed a revenue decline of 8% not least due to decline in new customer

development in non-oral care category. Essel has signed a ten year contract with an existing oral care customer. Also, strong

market presence in America and Europe has enabled the company to tap the new generation (high luster, recyclable) laminated

tubes for non oral care customers. Essel has introduced a new tube making technology named “SHOT” to meet the growing

demand for quality tubes for various products across sector. The company has introduced this new technology in US market

where it holds around one third volume share in laminated tubes segment. Continuous repayment of its long term debt has

improved its debt equity from 1.2 in FY15 to 0.7 in FY16 & 0.6 in FY17. We expect the debt-equity ratio to improve further in FY18.

Jindal Poly made an investment of Rs 32.30 crores for acquiring the remaining shares of his partially owned subsidiary GNL.

Global Nonwovens Limited is now a 100% subsidiary of the company. The nonwoven fabric market is expected to grow at 17%-

20% p.a. and to reach 40,000 tonnes by the year 2020. India’s 70% of the nonwoven fabric requirement is met by foreign players.

Also on account of merger the debt of the GNL would be re-priced which would reduce the interest cost by 270-280 bps due to the

strong financial strength of the Jindal Poly. The company is expected to incur a capex of Rs 750 crores ($116.2m) in next two years

to add 2 BOPP lines one each in US and Europe, this expansion plan would increase the BOPP’s capacity by 0.12mtpa to

0.586mtpa in the coming years. The production of the additional capacity is expected to commission in H1FY18.

Uflex Ltd is providing end-to-end flexible packaging solution to its customers and currently it has manufacturing facilities of

packaging films in India, Dubai, Mexico, Egypt, Poland and USA (current capacity- 3,37,000 TPA) and of packaging products at

multiple location in India (current capacity- 90,000 TPA). Uflex is setting up facility in the State of Gujarat for manufacture and

sale of aseptic packaging materials for liquid products with an annual capacity of 7 billion packs. The project shall be fully

completed in two stages.

Sources: HPPL, CD Equisearch Sources: HPPL, CD Equisearch Sources: HPPL, CD Equisearch CY For Huhtamaki PPL

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Financials

Quarterly Results Figures in Rs crores

Q1CY17 Q1CY16 % chg CY16 CY15 % chg

Income From Operations 511.84 525.61 -2.6 2177.78 2037.38 6.9

Other Income 5.51 3.91 40.9 17.33 14.24 21.7

Total Income 517.35 529.52 -2.3 2195.11 2051.62 7.0

Total Expenditure 458.89 446.48 2.8 1935.55 1805.09 7.2

EBITDA (other income included) 58.46 83.04 -29.6 259.56 246.53 5.3

Interest 8.53 10.64 -19.8 36.91 40.37 -8.6

Depreciation 20.63 22.79 -9.5 89.39 90.53 -1.3

PBT 29.30 49.61 -40.9 133.26 115.63 15.3

Tax 12.98 15.15 -14.3 51.77 36.90 40.3

Reported PAT 16.32 34.46 -52.6 81.49 78.73 3.5

Minority Interest N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.80 N/A

PAT after MI 16.32 34.46 -52.6 81.49 76.93 5.9

Extraordinary Item - - - -1.56 -0.20 -673.0

Adjusted Net Profit 16.32 34.46 -52.6 83.05 77.13 7.7

EPS(Rs) 2.24 4.74 -52.6 11.42 10.61 7.7

Income Statement Figures in Rs crores

CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17e CY18e

Income From Operations 1225.33 2037.38 2177.78 2391.10 2674.22

Growth (%) 12.9 66.3 6.9 9.8 11.8

Other Income 15.53 14.24 17.33 19.02 22.19

Total Income 1240.86 2051.62 2195.11 2410.12 2696.42

Total Expenditure 1106.29 1805.09 1935.55 2140.03 2382.73

EBITDA (other income included) 134.58 246.53 259.56 270.09 313.68

Interest 3.10 40.37 36.91 34.34 31.41

Depreciation 43.86 90.53 89.39 87.42 97.18

PBT 87.62 115.63 133.26 148.32 185.10

Tax 19.11 36.90 51.77 56.36 70.34

PAT 68.50 78.73 81.49 91.96 114.76

Minority Interest 1.90 1.80 N/A N/A N/A

PAT after MI 66.60 76.93 81.49 91.96 114.76

Extraordinary Item 3.69 -0.20 -1.56 - -

Adjusted Net Profit 62.91 77.13 83.05 91.96 114.76

EPS (Rs) 9.48 10.61 11.42 12.18 15.20

*To make the financials comparable consolidated accounts for CY14 & CY15 are taken above and standalone accounts (post merger) for CY16 onwards.

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Balance Sheet Figures in Rs crores

CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17e CY18e

Sources of Funds

Share Capital 14.54 14.54 14.54 15.10 15.10

Reserves 552.94 604.14 459.30 551.26 666.02

Total Shareholders' Funds 567.48 618.69 473.84 566.36 681.12

Minority Interest 22.03 23.83 N/A N/A N/A

Long Term Debt 35.41 435.21 408.21 375.00 340.00

Total Liabilities 624.92 1077.72 882.05 941.36 1021.12

Application of Funds

Gross Block 660.62 1559.66 1350.06 1470.07 1520.07

Less: Accumulated Depreciation 385.33 790.02 879.41 966.84 1064.02

Less: Impairment 0.00 14.91 14.91 14.91 14.91

Net Block 275.29 754.73 455.74 488.32 441.14

Capital Work in Progress 5.94 3.79 3.00 3.50 4.00

Investments 186.33 206.62 195.02 204.77 286.68

Current Assets, Loans & Advances

Inventory 98.25 156.07 182.50 200.75 220.83

Trade Receivables 245.78 418.87 462.79 509.07 570.16

Cash and Bank 11.65 15.37 31.10 14.81 24.62

Short term loans 16.15 20.65 21.82 23.91 26.74

Other Assets 15.31 32.76 28.73 30.17 31.67

Total CA & LA 387.13 643.71 726.94 778.71 874.01

Current Liabilities 212.77 466.19 478.73 511.44 559.21

Provisions-Short term 35.50 58.83 56.82 62.50 68.75

Total Current Liabilities 248.27 525.02 535.55 573.95 627.97

Net Current Assets 138.86 118.69 191.39 204.76 246.05

Net Deferred Tax -5.49 -4.24 3.14 4.30 5.50

Net long term assets 23.99 -1.87 33.76 35.71 37.75

Total Assets 624.92 1077.72 882.05 941.36 1021.12

*To make the financials comparable consolidated accounts for CY14 & CY15 are taken above and standalone accounts (post merger) for CY16 onwards.

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Key Financial Ratios

CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17e CY18e

Growth Ratios (%)

Revenue 12.9 66.3 6.9 9.8 11.8

EBITDA 7.0 93.3 6.2 3.0 16.1

Net Profit 22.1 22.6 7.7 10.7 24.8

EPS 15.4 11.9 7.7 6.6 24.8

Margins (%)

Operating Profit Margin 9.7 11.4 11.2 10.5 10.9

Gross profit Margin 10.2 10.1 10.3 9.9 10.6

Net Profit Margin 5.3 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.3

Return (%)

ROCE 12.5 13.9 11.5 12.3 13.6

ROE 14.0 16.8 20.0 18.6 19.2

Operating return on assets 23.5 32.4 28.9 28.4 30.6

Valuations

Market Cap/ Sales 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7

EV/EBITDA 9.1 8.3 7.6 7.8 6.8

P/E 19.1 22.6 21.2 20.6 16.5

P/BV 2.5 4.6 3.9 3.5 2.9

Other Ratios

Interest Coverage 27.0 3.9 4.7 5.3 6.9

Debt Equity 0.1 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.6

Current Ratio 2.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8

Dividend Payout Ratio 36.7 31.9 32.2 29.7 23.8

Turnover Ratios

Fixed Asset Turnover 5.5 5.3 4.5 5.1 5.8

Total Asset Turnover 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.9

Debtors Turnover 5.4 6.1 4.9 4.9 5.0

Inventory Turnover 11.5 14.2 11.4 11.2 11.3

Creditor Turnover 6.9 7.8 6.3 6.2 6.4

WC Ratios

Debtor Days 67.7 59.5 73.9 74.2 73.7

Inventory Days 31.6 25.7 32.0 32.7 32.3

Creditor Days 53.2 46.6 57.8 58.5 57.0

Cash Conversion Cycle 46.1 38.7 48.0 48.4 48.9

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Cumulative Financial Data

Rs crs CY13-14 CY15-16 CY17-18e

Income from operations 2311 4215 5065

Operating profit 234 477 543

EBIT 161 329 399

PBT 154 252 333

PAT 114 160 207

Dividends 45.0 51 55

OPM (%) 10.1 11.3 10.7

NPM (%) 5.1 3.8 4.1

Interest coverage 23.5 4.3 6.1

Debt-equity* 0.1 1.0 0.6

ROE (%) 13.3 16.3 18.8

ROCE (%) 12.0 14.2 12.9

Fixed asset turnover 5.1 6.0 5.6

Debtors turnover 5.7 5.9 4.9

Creditors Turnover 6.9 7.5 6.4

Inventory turnover 11.1 13.3 11.2

Debtor days 63.9 61.4 74.4

Inventory Days 32.8 27.4 32.5

Creditor Days 53.1 48.8 57.3

Cash Conversion 43.6 40.0 49.6

Dividend payout ratio (%) 36.6 32.0 26.4

CY13-14 implies two year ending CY14. *terminal year

The acquisition of Positive Packaging in CY15 largely explains the 1.8x increase in income from operations for the period CY15-

16 of Rs 4215 crores ($641.6m) from Rs 2311 crores ($385.9m) in CY13-14. Despite stress in OPM last fiscal, margin in CY 15-16

improved dramatically to 11.3% compared to 10.1% in the previous two year period (see table). However margin may shrink a

bit in ensuing two year period on account of crude oil price fluctuation precipitated by retention of oil supply cut mulled by the

oil supplying countries. The interest coverage ratio has declined sharply in CY15-16 as compared to CY13-14 due to increase in

average annual interest cost to Rs 38.64 crores as compared to Rs 3.43 crores. OPM for the two periods CY15-16 has gone up to

11.3% (by 120bps) as compared to 10.1% in CY13-14 period, whereas NPM for the same declined to 3.8% (a fall of 130bps) as

compared to 5.1%.

Promising sector trends will galvanize the revenue from operations by 1.2x in the period CY17-18e compared to CY15-16 which

will also drive the return ratios- ROE is expected to jump to 18.8% (250bps increase as compared to CY15-16) and for the same

period ROCE is expected to decline by 130 bps. Further, the interest coverage ratio is expected to improve on account of reduced

borrowings. Cash conversion cycle is expected to increase by 10days as compared to 40 days in CY15-16.

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Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance

Financial Summary – US dollar denominated

CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17e CY18e

Equity capital 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.3

Shareholder's funds 84.8 57.6 65.9 83.5 101.3

Total debt 6.6 79.7 66.0 63.5 58.1

Net fixed assets (inc CWIP) 39.6 78.7 67.5 76.2 68.9

Investments 29.4 31.2 28.7 31.7 44.4

Net current assets 21.9 17.9 24.3 27.5 33.9

Total assets 93.8 126.8 125.9 141.6 153.9

Revenues 200.8 317.6 324.0 370.3 414.2

EBITDA 20.9 38.5 39.0 41.8 48.6

EBDT 20.4 32.2 33.5 36.5 43.7

PBT 13.2 18.1 20.2 23.0 28.7

Profit after MI & EO 10.3 12.0 12.4 14.2 17.8

EPS ($) 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.19 0.24

Book Value ($) 1.17 0.79 0.91 1.11 1.34

*income statement figures translated at average rates; balance sheet at year end rates; projections at current rates (Rs 64.56/$). All dollar denominated figures are adjusted for extraordinary items.

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CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd

Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance

Disclosure& Disclaimer CD Equisearch Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as ‘CD Equi’) is a Member registered with National Stock Exchange of India Limited,

Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and Metropolitan Stock Exchange of India Limited (Formerly known as MCX Stock Exchange Limited). CD

Equi is also registered as Depository Participant with CDSL and AMFI registered Mutual Fund Advisor. The associates of CD Equi are

engaged in activities relating to NBFC-ND - Financing and Investment, Commodity Broking, Real Estate, etc.

CD Equi is registered under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014 with SEBI Registration no INH300002274. Further, CD Equi hereby

declares that –

• No disciplinary action has been taken against CD Equi by any of the regulatory authorities.

• CD Equi/its associates/research analysts do not have any financial interest/beneficial interest of more than one percent/material

conflict of interest in the subject company(s) (kindly disclose if otherwise).

• CD Equi/its associates/research analysts have not received any compensation from the subject company(s) during the past twelve

months.

• CD Equi/its research analysts has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by analysts and has not been

engaged in market making activity of the company covered by analysts.

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision.

Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such

investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to

in this document (including the merits and risks involved) and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such

an investment.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading

volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources

believed to be true but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for

general guidance only. CD Equi or any of its affiliates/group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may

arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. CD Equi has not independently verified all the

information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to

the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document.

While, CD Equi endeavors to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory compliance or

other reasons that prevent us from doing so.

This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,

redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Neither, CD Equi nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or

damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information.

CD Equisearch Private Limited (CIN: U67120WB1995PTC071521)

Registered Office: 37, Shakespeare Sarani, 3rd Floor, Kolkata – 700 017; Phone: +91(33) 4488 0000; Fax: +91(33) 2289 2557 Corporate Office: 10,

Vasawani Mansion, 5th Floor, Dinshaw Wachha Road, Churchgate, Mumbai – 400 020. Phone: +91(22) 2283 0652/0653; Fax: +91(22) 2283, 2276

Website: www.cdequi.com; Email: [email protected]

buy: >20% accumulate: >10% to ≤20% hold: ≥-10% to ≤10% reduce: ≥-20% to <-10% sell: <-20%

Exchange Rate Used- Indicative

Rs/$ CY14 CY15 CY16

Average 61.03 64.14 67.21

Year end 63.33 66.33 67.95

All $ values mentioned in the write-up translated at the average rate of the respective quarter/ year as applicable. Projections converted at

current exchange rate. Cumulative dollar figure is the sum of respective yearly dollar value.