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CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd Dec 8, 2016
Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance
LIC Housing Finance Ltd (LICHFL)
No. of shares (m) 504.7
Mkt cap (Rs crs/$m) 27923/4114.1
Current price (Rs/$) 553/8.2
Price target (Rs/$) 671/9.9
52 W H/L (Rs.) 624/389
Book Value (Rs/$) 199/2.9
Beta 1.5
Daily volume (avg. monthly) 3363740
P/BV (FY17e/18e) 2.6/2.2
P/E (FY17e/18e) 14.5/12.4
Cost to Income (FY16/17e/18e) 14.7/15.4/15.3
EPS growth (FY16/17e/18e) 19.8/16.1/17.3
NIM (FY16/17e/18e) 2.5/2.6/2.7
ROE (FY16/17e/18e) 19.6/19.4/19.4
ROA(FY16/17e/18e) 1.4/1.4/1.4
D/E ratio (FY16/17e/18e) 12.1/11.8/11.3
BSE Code 500253
NSE Code LICHSGFIN
Bloomberg LICHF IN
Reuters LICH.BO
Shareholding pattern %
Promoters 40.3
MFs / Banks / FIs 5.2
Foreign 26.4
Govt. Holding 1.3
Total Public 26.8
Total 100.0
As on Sept 30, 2016
Recommendation
BUY
Phone: + 91 (33) 4488 0055
E- mail: [email protected]
Figures (Rs crs)
FY14 FY15
FY16
FY17e
FY18e
Net Interest Income 1915.90 2265.83 2972.41 3484.52 4013.12
Non Interest Income 244.39 225.58 206.29 233.28 266.53
Pre-Provision Profits 1847.03 2109.19 2710.02 3146.84 3627.00
Net profit 1317.19 1386.19 1660.79 1927.37 2260.40
EPS(Rs) 26.10 27.47 32.91 38.19 44.79
EPS growth (%) 28.7 5.2 19.8 16.1 17.3
Company Brief LIC Housing Finance Ltd provides long term finance to individuals/businesses
for purchase or construction of house or flat for residential purpose/repair or
renovation of existing flat/houses. It also provides finance on existing property
for business/personal needs and also gives loans to professionals for
purchase/construction of clinics, nursing homes and diagnostic centres.
Quarterly Highlights
� Guarding the positive trend in the core home loan portfolio, LICHFL has
been able to fortify its individual loan book by growing at 14.7% y-o-y in
the first half. Competitive products and on ground marketing activities
have helped it to increase the disbursements by 13.9%. Grabbing the
opportunity from the Seventh Pay Commission, it has launched products
for central and state government employees at lower rates.
� Expansion in margins by 12 bps (2.7% vs 2.6%) in the last quarter from
increase in share of LAP portfolio (9.7% in H1FY17 vs 8.8% in FY16)
resulted in NII growth of 20.9% to Rs 885.19 crs ($130.4m) in Q2FY17
compared to Rs 732.31 crs ($107.9m) in Q2FY16. Higher operating costs due
to increase in arrear of wages led to hike in cost to income ratio by 112 bps
to 14.7% in the second quarter of the current fiscal.
� LICHFL continues to stand out in precluding accretion to stressed assets in
the individual segment. The GNPA ratio stood at 0.32% in the last quarter
against 0.33% a year back in this segment. Some concerns prevailing in the
project loans have been duly provided for. The one time provisioning of Rs
92 crs ($13.6m) in Q1FY17 on the bad project loans due to transition to
higher provisioning slowed down profits for that quarter (growth of 6.7%).
For H1FY17, the profit after tax stood at Rs 902.60 crs ($133.0m) compared
to Rs 793.87 crs ($117.0m) in H1FY16 registering a growth of 13.7%.
� The stock currently trades at 2.6x FY17e BV (14.5x FY17e EPS of Rs 38.19)
and 2.2x FY18e BV (12.4x FY18e EPS of Rs 44.79). Though demonetization
seems to have hit hard on the NBFC industry, LICHFL’s dependence on
lower riskier products would shield it from the much adverse effects which
may be observed in the coming few quarters for the industry. Expectation
of deterioration in property prices may slack its LAP portfolio
disbursements for some time but will revitalize in the long run. However,
dynamic shift in NIMs resulting from change in loan mix (core and
noncore portfolio) and new floating loans cannot be sorely undermined.
Reflecting all odds, we maintain “buy” rating on the stock with a revised
target of Rs 671 (previous target Rs 578) based on 2.7x FY18e BV for a
period of 9-12 months.
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[
Outlook and Recommendation
Housing Finance Industry
NBFCs have turned out to be the engines of growth and are an integral part of the Indian financial system, enhancing
competition and diversification in the financial sector. The housing finance industry has scripted a great success story in recent
years but it accounts for only 9% of our country’s GDP in FY16 which is much lower as compared to 20-30% in Malaysia and
China (See chart below). Such a situation in India is undoubtedly an opportunity for the Indian HFCs to contribute more to the
nation's GDP in the near future (mortgage penetration upto 16% by FY2021-22). The latent credit demand of an emerging India
will allow NBFCs to fill the gap, especially where traditional banks have been wary to serve. NBFC is expected to account for
17.1% of the total credit in the system by FY20 up from 9.4% in FY16 (Source: India Ratings).
According to ICRA, the total housing credit outstanding in India as on June 30, 2016 was around Rs 12.8 trillion compared to Rs
12.4 trillion in FY16. Increasing disbursements on construction linked loans, growth in the small ticket affordable housing
segment and demand from Tier II/III cities have boosted the credit growth. The home loan growth for small HFCs was seen at
36% in FY16 (37% in FY15) backed by increased focus on faster growing segments like affordable housing finance and the self-
employed borrower segments.
Source: NHB, RBI Source: ICRA Source: ICRA
Increasing number of new entrants in the housing finance industry, including HFCs promoted by existing NBFCs has led to
rising competition in the industry especially in the prime home loan and loan against property segment. Rising competitive
intensity has also led to slackening in the lending norms such as LTV ratio, easing of higher top-up loans and introduction of
new products (like fixed to floating). Moreover, the portfolio vulnerability is increasing with rising share riskier segments like
self employed and non housing loans which can weaken the asset quality going ahead.
The focus of the housing finance companies is on the affordable housing segment. They are at the forefront in catering to the
financial needs of the under-banked masses in the rural and semi-urban areas through strong linkages with these segments.
Given the increasing penetration levels along with the government thrust on the affordable housing segment, opportunities for
growth seem to be high. Despite such likelihood to grow, the new players in this segment will face the challenge in the form of
limited access to funding sources.
With the notification by the Finance Ministry, 41 housing finance companies are now approved under The Securitization and
Reconstruction of Financial and Enforcement of Security Interest Act (SARFESAI) which is a significant step towards bringing
HFCs at par with banks by enabling speedier loan recovery. One may also witness closer coordination between NHB and RBI
to regulate, develop and meet the capital requirements of HFCs so that the purpose of disbursing finance at affordable rates for
housing can be achieved instead of just growing outstanding loan book. Yet, with banks shifting to a new loan pricing regime-
the marginal cost of funds based lending rate (MCLR), the fall in the home loan rate will be a challenge for housing finance
companies.
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Loan Portfolio
Ceaseless rise in competition in the housing finance market along with slower disbursements (8.7%) in the last quarter (mainly
in the LAP segment) moved up the absolute loan book to Rs 131096 crs ($ 19315.6m) in the first half of the current fiscal
registering a growth of 14.9% from the same half of the previous year. Being the second largest player in the industry, it has
been able to keep pace of its loan book which has been predominantly led by the individual home loan book (accounts for
87.5% of the total portfolio). LICHFL’s risky developer loan book accounts for mere 2.7% of the total size which is expected to
stay in the similar range (2.7-2.9%) in the near future.
Phasing out of the currency from the system may impact the players in the housing finance companies in the coming few
quarters. HFCs with higher proportion of LAP business are expected to take a hit- mainly those to the self employed class.
Relatively, LICHFL bears a lesser risk in this concern compared to its peers as a larger portion of the 9.7% LAP portfolio is sold
to the salaried class with lower LTV ratio and smaller ticket size. Sharp correction in the real estate prices may lead to sluggish
mortgage growth in the few quarters with a strong turnaround in the long term. Lower property prices would substantially
increase the LTV ratio in the LAP books and so HFCs need to properly monitor such parameters. Expecting some slowdown in
the disbursements, we expect the total credit book to grow by 14.1% in FY17 to Rs 142866 crs ($21049.8m) and by 12.0% in FY18
to Rs 160010 crs ($23575.8m).
Source: LICHFL, CD Equisearch Source: LICHFL Source: LICHFL
Optimizing Cost of funds
Seeing a further decline in the corporate bond yields, LICHFL expects to drive down its cost of funds. Scaling up its
dependence on NCDs as source of borrowing (80.6% in H1FY17 vs 77.3% in FY16) which has rating of CRISIL AAA and CARE
AAA, the company has been able to avail funds at a weighted cost of 8.9% in the last quarter. Refinement in the loan mix with
lower risky products has kept the margins stable for the past few quarters. The NIMs hit the peak of 2.7% in the last quarter on
high yielding LAP portfolio and lower cost of funds. The company expects to focus on its core portfolio in the future which will
sustain the targeted margins of 2.7% in FY18.
Source: LICHFL Source: LICHFL Source: LICHFL
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Asset Quality
Looking at a wider market, the asset quality has remained quite resilient in the current fiscal. The GNPA in the home loan
segment for the industry was at one of the lowest of 0.6% at end of June 2016, while that in the non housing loan segment
was at a high of 1.3% in the same period. As usual, there is no such alarm on the asset quality front for LICHFL. The GNPA
at the end of the first half of the current fiscal stood at 0.57% as against 0.60% in the corresponding period a year back. The
asset quality has remained unblemished - NNPA declined to 0.28% in H1FY17 from 0.32% for the same period -as the
company continues to provide for the bad project loans.
Demonetization raises issues regarding higher non-performing assets for companies having high LAP exposure. HFCs like
Dewan and Repco face high LAP exposure of 15.7% and 20.7% respectively lending substantial part to non salaried class.
Thankfully for LICHFL, exposure to LAP is low with low share of non salaried segment. Greater thrust on increasing the
base of individual home loans (currently 87.5%) will keep a buffer from such shocks. We expect the asset quality to be gentle
for the company and with lesser dependence on riskier products; it will continue to report lower NPA figures (0.5%) in the
next two years.
Source: LICHFL, CD Equisearch Source: LICHFL, CD Equisearch Source: LICHFL, CD Equisearch
Financials and Valuation
Sloppy bank credit for mortgage loans helped HFCs to gain their share in this competitive industry. LICHFL was able to
keep up its positive trajectory by notching 22.5% growth in its net interest income in the first half of the current fiscal year.
Striking a balance between the asset growth and profitability, it was able to sustain the healthy margins by adjusting its
pricing mechanism which helped NII to jump to Rs 1723 crs ($253.9m) in H1FY17 as against Rs 1406 crs ($207.2m) in
H1FY16.
Strengthening its distribution network, LICHFL has been able to build its customer relationship well by launching new
products. With interest rates south bound, it offers conversion of fixed to floating loans and has also introduced pure
floating loans yielding 9.4-9.5%. LICHFL expects to increase its distribution in this arena and pull its constitution of floating
loans of the book to around 70% by end of this fiscal from the current 61%. Going ahead, we expect the asset base to grow
mildly and with stable margins the NII should grow at a CAGR of 16.2% over the next two years to Rs 3485 crs ($513.4m)
and Rs 4013 crs ($591.3m) in FY17 and FY18 respectively.
Higher operating costs in the first quarter of the fiscal (up by 65.4%, y-o-y) due to payment of arrear of wages increased the
cost to income ratio in the period (15.7% in Q1FY17). Though LICHFL stands at a better position compare to its peers like
Dewan (23.1%) and GICHFL (25%), however, increasing employee expenses may prove worrisome in coming years. We
expect cost to income ratio to shoot up to 15.3-15.4% in the next two years. Beside higher operating expenditure, higher
provisioning for bad loans has also slowed down the bottomline growth. The effect of demonetization may have an adverse
impact in the second half of the current fiscal and we expect the profits to gather momentum in the next fiscal. We foresee
PAT growing at 16.1% in FY17 to Rs 1928 crs ($284.0) and by 17.3% in FY18 to Rs 2260 crs ($333.0m) with ROE and ROA to
remain stable at 19.4% and 1.4% respectively in the next two years.
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Source: LICHFL, CD Equisearch Source: LICHFL, CD Equisearch Source: LICHFL, CD Equisearch
The stock currently trades at 2.6x FY17e BV (14.5x FY17e EPS of Rs 38.19) and 2.2x FY18e BV (12.4x FY18e EPS of Rs 44.79).
Notwithstanding its higher loan book base, LICHFL has consistently been able to grow its loan portfolio - CAGR of 24.3% in the
last eight years. It has been ahead of its competitors in a difficult housing finance industry in managing its cost of funds and
preventing sharp asset quality deterioration. However, margins have trailed compared to its peers -reflected by its scanty
portion of high yielding non core products and lending to non salaried segment (only 16%). Not overlooking the liquidity
crunch and a sense of uncertainty in the movement of estate prices in view of the recent cancellation of high value denominated
currency notes by government, earnings would grow annually 16.7% in the next two years. Reflecting all odds, we maintain
“buy” rating on the stock with a revised target of Rs 671 (previous target Rs 578) based on 2.7x FY18e BV for a period of 9-12
months. (For more info refer to our April report).
Source: LICHFL, CD Equisearch Source: LICHFL, CD Equisearch Source: LICHFL, CD Equisearch
Risks and Concerns
Slowdown in Real Estate Sector
Adverse developments in the real estate sector causing delay and default in completion of projects may cause a setback to
disbursement of new loans. With pressure on both the demand and supply side, residential real estate has gone into a vicious
cycle of ever increasing cost, falling demand, liquidity crunch and, delay in approvals adding to the woes of the developers.
Margins Pressure
Lending is the main activity of housing finance companies requiring maximum prudence on the part of lending financial
institutions. Inflationary trends, increased cost of borrowings, narrowing down of margins and intense competition pose big
challenge for sustaining profitability on a consistent basis. With interest rates declining and the home loan sector facing
declining asset quality, HFCs will face pressure on margins. The volatile macroeconomic environment, more precisely
fluctuations in interest rates, makes housing finance institutions more vulnerable to certain risks such as credit risk, liquidity
risk, and interest rate risk.
Stiff Competition
Spurt in competition, coupled with an intensive fight for market share between HFCs and Commercial Banks within the same
space can heighten the risk profile with aggressive underwriting standards. Over reliance on aggressively disbursing loans as
an easier option to build size and price war, and squeezing margins to undesirable levels are other areas of possible threats.
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Cross Sectional Analysis
Company Equity* CMP Mcap* NII* Profit* NIMs Loan Book
growth (%)
ROE
(%)
ROA
(%) P/BV P/E
LIC Housing Finance 101.0 553 27923 3289 1770 2.7 14.9 19.0 1.4 2.8 15.8
Gruh 72.8 311 11306 460 264 4.2 22.0 29.7 2.3 11.7 42.9
Dewan 313.0 247 7721 1813 810 2.6 19.7 15.2 1.1 1.3 9.5
Repco 62.6 561 3508 338 166 4.4 23.7 17.2 2.1 3.4 21.1
GIC housing 53.9 281 1513 281 133 3.6 19.4 17.9 1.7 1.9 11.4
Can Fin 26.6 1665 4433 359 194 3.4 28.8 21.7 1.8 4.6 22.8
*figures in crores; calculations on ttm basis
Source: Company, CD Equisearch Source: Company, CD Equisearch Source: Company, CD Equisearch
Source: Company, CD Equisearch Source: Company, CD Equisearch Source: Company, CD Equisearch
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Financials
Quarterly Results Figures in Rs crs
Q2FY17 Q2FY16 % chg. H1FY17 H1FY16 % chg.
Net Interest Income 885.19 732.31 20.9 1722.99 1406.23 22.5
Non Interest Income 42.12 47.97 -12.2 82.36 80.97 1.7
Total Income 927.31 780.28 18.8 1805.36 1487.20 21.4
Operating Expenses 136.36 105.98 28.7 274.52 189.53 44.8
Pre-Provision Profits 790.95 674.30 17.3 1530.84 1297.67 18.0
Provision 30.31 30.05 0.8 146.76 74.40 97.3
PBT 760.65 644.24 18.1 1384.07 1223.27 13.1
Tax 265.88 232.50 14.4 481.47 429.39 12.1
PAT 494.76 411.74 20.2 902.60 793.87 13.7
Basic EPS (F.V.2) 9.80 8.16 20.2 17.89 15.73 13.7
Equity (paid up) 100.93 100.93 - 100.93 100.93 -
Income Statement Figures in Rs crs
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17e FY18e
Net Interest Income 1915.90 2265.83 2972.41 3484.52 4013.12
Non Interest Income 244.39 222.58 206.29 233.28 266.53
Total Income 2160.29 2488.41 3178.70 3717.79 4279.65
Operating Expenses 313.25 379.21 468.68 570.95 652.65
Pre-Provision Profits 1847.03 2109.19 2710.02 3146.84 3627.00
Provision 21.53 7.25 146.46 204.30 176.01
PBT 1825.50 2101.94 2563.56 2942.54 3450.99
Tax 508.32 715.76 902.76 1015.18 1190.59
PAT 1317.19 1386.19 1660.79 1927.37 2260.40
Basic EPS (F.V.2) 26.10 27.47 32.91 38.19 44.79
Equity (paid-up) 100.93 100.93 100.93 100.93 100.93
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Balance Sheet Figures in Rs crs
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17e FY18e
Sources Of Funds 95520.45 112545.06 130497.77 147741.31 165389.85
Shareholders’ Funds 7532.90 7818.44 9145.98 10708.89 12544.11
Share Capital 101.00 101.00 101.00 101.00 101.00
Reserves and Surplus 7431.90 7717.44 9044.98 10607.90 12443.11
Non Current Liabilities 68296.63 82206.93 93141.07 105749.15 117933.49
Long Term Borrowings 67712.33 80518.55 90658.14 102871.35 114791.80
Long Term Provisions 705.99 696.66 806.33 958.60 1113.71
Other Long term Liabilities 134.88 322.75 865.70 1048.96 1157.73
Deferred Tax Liabilities(net) -256.57 668.98 810.90 870.25 870.25
Current Liabilities 19690.92 22519.68 28210.72 31283.26 34912.26
Short Term Borrowings 3738.11 2698.01 5440.44 5048.90 5654.77
Trade Payables 25.60 27.46 41.39 48.65 60.22
Other Current Liabilities 15557.40 19421.11 22268.36 25652.99 28553.80
Short Term Provisions 369.82 373.11 460.53 532.73 643.47
Application of Funds 95520.45 112545.06 130497.77 147741.31 165389.85
Non- Current Assets 86301.16 102260.62 118149.90 134868.93 151044.30
Tangible Assets 75.61 79.65 92.02 91.65 95.54
Capital Work in Progress 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Non-Current Investments 199.08 237.12 271.82 380.55 418.60
Long Term Loans and Advances 86026.43 101943.81 117786.01 134396.68 150530.11
Other Non Current Assets 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05
Current Assets 9219.29 10284.44 12347.87 12872.38 14345.55
Current Investments 0.23 0.02 5.02 1.07 1.07
Trade Receivables 68.29 69.62 85.39 104.18 121.89
Cash and Cash Equivalents 3022.38 2933.06 3926.80 3245.86 3583.84
Short term loans and advances 5503.83 6567.86 7535.44 8583.97 9614.61
Other Current Assets 624.56 713.87 795.21 937.30 1024.14
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Cash Flow Statement Figures in Rs crs
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17e FY18e
Net Profit (a) 1317.19 1386.19 1660.79 1927.37 2260.40
Non cash expenses & others (b) 20.06 143.81 297.20 271.32 184.43
Depreciation 7.63 9.38 9.72 10.36 11.11
Provisions/Write offs 20.12 6.28 146.46 204.30 176.01
(Profit)/Loss on sale of investments -0.44 -3.98 0.84 - -
(Profit)/Loss on sale of assets 0.05 -0.03 -0.06 - -
Net Deferred tax asset -7.68 132.02 141.92 59.34 -
Dividend Income -1.43 -0.67 -2.69 -2.69 -2.69
Others 1.81 0.82 1.01 - -
Adjustments in NWC & others (c ) -12794.44 -15799.46 -15001.18 -17725.63 -16838.75
Trade receivables -7.66 -1.33 -15.77 -18.79 -17.71
Trade payables 2.41 1.86 13.93 7.26 11.57
Other assets (net of liabilities) -12789.19 -15799.99 -14999.34 -17714.11 -16832.61
Net Cash flow from Operations (a+b+c) -11457.19 -14269.46 -13043.18 -15526.95 -14393.92
Purchase of fixed assets -20.99 -18.30 -22.10 -10.00 -15.00
Sale of fixed assets 0.05 0.04 0.07 - -
Net Investments -14.62 -33.70 -41.55 -104.77 -38.05
Dividend Income 1.43 0.67 2.69 2.69 2.69
Net Cash Flow from Investing activities (d) -34.13 -51.30 -60.88 -112.08 -50.36
Net borrowings 13271.49 14496.29 14399.30 15291.34 15146.70
Dividends paid(including CDT) -223.36 -264.84 -301.49 -333.25 -364.45
Net Cash flow from Financing activities (e) 13048.14 14231.45 14097.81 14958.09 14782.25
Net change (a+b+c+d+e) 1556.81 -89.31 993.74 -680.94 337.97
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Key Financial Ratios
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17e FY18e
Growth Ratios (%)
Net Interest Income 23.9 18.3 31.2 17.2 15.2
Total Income 24.6 15.2 27.7 17.0 15.1
Pre Provision Profits 27.2 14.2 28.5 16.1 15.3
Net Profit 28.7 5.2 19.8 16.1 17.3
EPS 28.7 5.2 19.8 16.1 17.3
Loan Book 17.4 18.6 15.5 14.1 12.0
Return Ratios (%)
ROE 18.8 18.1 19.6 19.4 19.4
ROA 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4
Return on loan assets 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5
Margins (%)
Cost To Income Ratio 14.5 15.2 14.7 15.4 15.3
Net Interest Margin (% of Loan Book) 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7
Asset Quality (%)
Gross NPA 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Net NPA 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Provision on Loan Book 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Valuation Ratios
P/BV 1.6 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.2
P/E 9.0 15.9 15.0 14.5 12.4
Other Ratios
Debt / Equity 10.9 12.3 12.1 11.8 11.3
Current Ratio 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Dividend Payout 20.2 21.8 20.1 18.9 18.8
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Cumulative Financial Data
Rs crs FY10-12 FY13-15 FY16-18e
NII 3666 5728 10470
Pre-provision profits 3656 5409 9484
PBT 3268 5301 8957
PAT 2424 3727 5849
Dividends 571 792 1123
Loan Book* 63080 108361 160010
Total debt* 56087 96532 141369
NII growth (%) 114.5 56.2 82.8
Pre-provision profit growth (%) 120.5 47.9 75.3
PAT growth (%) 102.3 53.8 56.9
Loan Book growth (%) 127.9 71.8 47.7
Cost to Income (%) 15.0 15.3 15.1
NIM (%) 2.7 2.2 2.6
ROE (%) 20.4 18.4 19.1
ROA (%) 1.7 1.4 1.4
Debt-equity* 9.9 12.3 11.3
Dividend payout ratio (%) 22.4 21.3 19.2
FY10-12 implies three year period ending FY12. *as at terminal year
Being one of the oldest running players in the industry, LICHFL has been able to thrive both in terms of
profitability and asset base. Continuous changes in both loan and borrowing mix has bode well for the company;
helped by the rising loan book, NII will increase nearly threefold in the period FY16-18e from the period FY10-
12. NIMs declined in the period FY13-15 due to low disbursement in the high yielding non housing loans. The
company witnessed weaker spread post FY12 as its share of project loans portfolio shrank from 8.5% in FY11 to
3.0% in FY14.
Despite lower provisioning in three year ending FY15, profit after tax grew by only 14.9% CAGR over the three
years. Higher operating costs in FY13 (Cost to income 16.5%) and creation of deferred tax in FY15 resulting in
PAT growth by just 5.2% in that year explains the slowdown in the said three year period (53.8% vs 102.3%).
Higher margins will somewhat offset the incremental provisions to be made in the period FY16-18e on the
project loans and will help the profits to grow at a CAGR of 17.7% in the three year ending FY18. Stable asset
quality and robust core income growth will help ROE to improve to 19.1% in FY16-18e from 18.4% in FY13-15,
while ROA will remain stable at 1.4% (see table).
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Financial Summary – US dollar denominated
million $ FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17e FY18e
Equity capital 16.8 16.1 15.2 14.9 14.9
Shareholders’ funds 1253.4 1249.1 1378.8 1577.8 1848.2
Total debt 13649.9 15422.7 16723.4 18597.5 20829.2
Total loans and advances 15229.7 17336.7 18892.8 21066.6 23595.6
Investments 33.2 37.9 41.7 56.2 61.8
Net current assets -1742.4 -1954.8 -2391.4 -2712.6 -3030.3
Total assets 15893.6 17981.1 19673.2 21768.1 24368.4
Net Interest Income 316.7 370.6 454.1 513.4 591.3
Pre-provision Profits 305.3 344.9 414.0 463.7 534.4
PBT 301.8 343.8 391.6 433.6 508.5
PAT 217.7 226.7 253.7 284.0 333.0
EPS($) 0.43 0.45 0.50 0.56 0.66
Book value ($) 2.48 2.48 2.73 3.13 3.66
Operating Cash Flow -1906.4 -2279.8 -1966.3 -2287.7 -2120.8
Investing Cash Flow -5.7 -8.2 -9.2 -16.5 -7.4
Financing Cash Flow 2171.1 2273.7 2125.3 2203.9 2178.0
Net Cash Flow 259.0 -14.3 149.8 -100.3 49.8
Income statement figures translated at average rates; balance sheet and cash flow at year end rates; projections at current rates All dollar denominated figures are adjusted for extraordinary items.
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CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd
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