Slocan Integral Forestry CooperativePublic Presentation

February 1-2, 2017 New Denver - Winlaw, BC

g13utzig@telus.netwww.kootenayresilience.org

Greg Utzig Kutenai Nature Investigations Ltd.Nelson, BC CANADA

Climate Disruption

What does it mean for wildfire and ecosystems?Should we care?

Can we do anything?

Part 1 – Climate Change Backgrounder

Climate Information

l Vulnerability/ Resilience Assessment of West Kootenay Forest Ecosystemsq Funded by BC Government – MoFLNRO - Future Forest Ecosystem

Scientific Council (G. Utzig, R. Holt, H. Pinnell, C. Pearce)

l Climate Change Conservation Planningq Funded by ENGOs – Wildsight and Conservation Northwest

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Climate Change Projects

l Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) –U of Victoria

l Climate Western North America(ClimateWNA) – BC MoFLNRO, UBC, U of A – Edmonton

l Climate Impacts Group (CIG) – U of WA

l International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

l Global climate disruption – What is happening? and Why?

l What do local climate projections indicate?

l What may this mean for local ecosystems?

l What mechanisms may contribute to change?l What can we do?

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Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

CarbonCycle

Long-termShort-termExchange

Photosynthesis

Respiration

4Source: National research Council. 2010. Ocean Acidification: A National Strategy to Meet the Challenges of a Changing Ocean. p. 3. Washington DC: The National Academies Press. Credit: Peter Olsen Photography Moment Getty Images

Marine Organisms Emissions

Agriculture

5Adapted from: Marian Koshland Science Museum

of the US National Academy of Sciences.

Amplified Warming6 Increased levels of GHGs trap

more infrared energy and heatthe atmosphere and the earth

Natural Warming1 Sunlight energy heats the earth2 Heat is radiated out (infrared energy)3 Radiated energy is absorbed by GHGs and re-radiated4 Some infrared from GHGs further warms the earth5 Remaining infrared is emitted to space

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3

4

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6Video on-line at NOAA http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/history.html

Recent CO2 Accumulation in the Atmosphere

Par

ts p

er m

illio

n

Par

ts p

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illio

n Since 1979, CO2 has beenincreasing at about

2 ppm/year –during 2015 there was

a 3 ppm increase

2011

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Long-term CO2 Accumulation in the AtmosphereCurrent

Par

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illio

n

Last 800,000 years

Par

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n

Video on-line at NOAA http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/history.html

The CO2 increase is unprecedented in the last 800,000 years

Weather and Climate

l Weatherq Day-to-day variation in temperature,

precipitation, humidity, wind and atmospheric pressure – the state of the atmosphere at a particular time

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World Climatesl Climateq Averages or extremes of temperature,

precipitation and other atmospheric variables over longer periods of time (months, years, decades, centuries)

Weather and Climate Variability

Climate Variability

Short term: (years todecadal) rises andfalls about the trendline (ENSO)

Climate Oscillations

Multi-decadal oscillations in regional climate (e.g. PDO, NAO)

Climate ChangeLong-term trends or major shifts in climate (mulit-decadal to century-scale)

From: Reasoner 2010 - CBT 9

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~1850-1900blue

~1900-2000green

~2000+yellow

0oC

2016

Trend of Mean Annual Temperature Columbia Basin (30 year “normals”)

From: Murdock 2007 - PCIC-CBT

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steepest increasebeginning recently

long-term trend

Loss ofColdestWeather

HistoricalClimate

New Climate

More HotWeather

Cold HotAverage

NewRecord HotWeather

Increase in Mean TemperatureProbability of

occurrence

Adapted from: Reasoner 2012 12

Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomalies

13From: Hansen et al. 2014; Goddard Institute for Space Studies http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

Summer Anomalies (JJA)

Winter Anomalies (DJF)Standard Deviation

More Hot WeatherMore Cold

Weather

Increase in Variance (more extremes)

Cold HotAverage

HistoricalClimate

New Climate

New RecordCold Weather

New RecordHot Weather

Frequency ofoccurrence

Adapted from: Reasoner 2012 14

Reduced, but ContinuingColdWeather

Cold HotAverage

HistoricalClimate

New Climate

Much More Hot Weather

and Record Hot Weather

Increase in Mean Temperature & VarianceFrequency of

occurence

Adapted from: IPCC 2001 & Reasoner 2012 15

Decadal Summer Temperature AnomaliesNorthern Hemisphere Land (1951- 61 reference period)

Adapted from:Hansen et al. 2012

2001-2011

1951-1961

Temperature Anomalies (oC)

Freq

uenc

y of

Occ

urre

nce

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Climatic Extremes

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• Increased amplitude• Reduced rate of movement• Weather systems stall

Calgary & SE BC - June, 2013

Jet Stream Modifications

Low

High

High

Mechanisms?• Heat waves• Drought• High intensity rainstorms/ flooding• Windstorms/ tonadoes• Lightning storms• Hail storms• Ice storms• Early spring heat/ late frost

combinations

Grand Forks, BC - July, 2012 Crossfields, AB - July, 2012

Boundary Sentinel

Jet Stream

18NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center – MERRA Dataset (June 1- July 8, 1988)

It is theorized that the loss ofarctic ice due to increasing temperatures is slowing the

eastward flow and increasing the amplitude of the jet stream

Alteration of the jet streampotentially increases the intensity

and duration of extreme eventssuch as droughts and severe storms

(cold polar air drawn southand warm air drawn north)

Fort McMurray Fire 2016

May 3 May 4 May 5

Jet Stream Configuration

Polar JetSteam:

increased amplitude,

weak and slowmoving

Images from Climate Reanalyzer, Climate Change Institute, U of Maine, USA http://cci-reanalyzer.org“. Natural Resources CAN

G. Utzig, P. Ag. 5/6/16Kutenai Nature Investigations Ltd. 19

Temperature Anomaly Compared to 1979-2000 Average

Temperatures8-15o C

above recentaverage

2,400homesburned

T. Reith/CBC; DarrenRD

Fire Danger Rating

FortMcMurray

(the contribution of Jet Stream alteration?)

l Global climate disruption – What is happening? and Why?

l What do local climate projections indicate?

l What may this mean for local ecosystems?

l What mechanisms may contribute to change?l What can we do?

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Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

General Circulation Models (GCMs)“Global Climate Models”

Representations of the global climate system

From: IPCC 2007 - AR4 WG1 and IPPC 2013 AR5

“3D pixels” representingatmospheric conditions at various elevations around

the earth through time

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GHG Emission Projections

these “drive” the models

Projected Changes for the 2050s

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Temperature

Precipitation Winter Spring Summer Fall

Winter Spring Summer Fall

From: CBT – average of A1B scenarios

Variability: Past vs. Potential Futurefor the Columbia Basin

From: Murdock 2007 - PCIC-CBT 23

Note that the projected annual temperature shifts far exceed historical variability (20th century), while the projected precipitation shifts do not.

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“We have options, but the past is not one of them”Sauchyn and Kulshreshtha 2008, p.295

“Times have changed – no longer is our goal sustainable development …. our goal must now be sustainable survival”

Blackstock 2008, p.15

www.kootenayresilience.org

It is all about that thin little layer of air