frontier pt1
DESCRIPTION
fmTRANSCRIPT
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 238: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 239: Economic outlook
ARS 2015 2016 2017
-/- 0.4 -0.7 0.0
13.4% 13,428 13,284 13,386
MXAR 43.1 43.6 44.0
10.4 19.3 26.4 25.2
16.9% -1.8 -1.6 -1.2
1.4 -4.9 -4.8 -5.3
1.5
20.6
11.6
8
19.3
IBG
194.5
70
19.8
Figure 240: Index and stock data
MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF # Analyst MSCI
($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
MXAR 20,595 -0.9 -12.8 4.2 9.9 1.4 20.8 54 13.4
YPF UN 6,277 -2.0 -23.5 -30.6 9.2 1.0 8.0 11 26.1
GGAL UR 3,470 0.7 0.4 62.0 10.3 3.6 30.0 5 21.4
BMA UN 3,496 6.6 -4.1 59.0 8.4 3.5 31.7 5 20.9
TEO UN 2,999 -6.4 -19.4 -20.5 9.5 2.6 24.5 9 12.4
BFR UN 3,436 -1.4 -17.2 33.2 11.4 3.8 31.1 3 7.9
AGRO UN 1,414 -6.1 10.5 48.0 20.5 2.7 8.6 10 4.6
PZE UN 1,210 4.9 -2.0 27.4 7.7 1.3 na 2 3.9
GLOB UN 1,003 -21.6 -13.7 108.5 25.4 6.4 19.1 9 2.8
GCLA AR 2,454 -13.7 -26.8 50.2 na 4.9 37.3 2 -
ALUA AR 1,864 -25.1 -35.0 -20.7 na 3.5 na 1 -
PAMP AR 1,540 0.4 -33.3 40.5 25.9 4.2 29.8 2 -
ERAR AR 2,484 -15.8 -32.0 -23.9 14.8 1.7 8.5 2 -
PATA AR 615 -6.4 -19.2 -31.6 na 4.1 na 0 -
BHIP AR 602 -9.7 -37.8 -23.4 na 1.7 na 1 -
TGSU2 AR 920 -11.9 -32.0 31.3 65.5 6.8 15.5 1 -
LEDE AR 358 -17.1 -12.9 -3.2 na 3.4 na 0 -
IRCP AR 994 -7.4 -37.4 1.2 na 12.9 na 0 -
MOLI AR 1,350 -14.9 4.7 25.6 na 8.7 na 0 -
Figure 241: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 242: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x) Figure 243: MSCI sector weights
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
970 1.2
Molinos Rio Plat Cons. Staples 338 0.3
Patagonia-B Cons. Staples 615 0.0
Irsa Propiedades Financials 353 0.0
Grupo Clarin-B Cons. Disc. 2,454 0.0
1.2
Petrobras Ar-Adr Energy 423 0.2
Adecoagro Sa Cons. Staples 990
Globant Sa IT
Aluar Aluminio Materials
Cons. Staples 358 0.1
Banco Hipoteca Financials 602 0.1
Trans Gas Sur-B Energy 451 0.1
Ledesma Saai
1,864 0.8
Pampa Energia Sa Utilities
Figure 237: Key data
Local Currency
S&P / Moody's Rating
Weight in MSCI FM (%)
Argentina
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
Local Index
Trailing P/B
Beta to FM
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
MSCI free float MktCap, $bn
No. of Companies
MSCI Index
2016 P/E
2016 EPS Growth
19.3
Ticker Name Sector
Real GDP (% YoY)
C/A balance (% of GDP)
Government balance (% of GDP)
CPI (year-end, %YoY)
3M ADTV ($mn)
$ Performance
GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
3MADTV
No. of Companies
MktCap ($bn)
Ypf Sa-Adr Energy 2,824 8.9
MSCI Argentina 11,620
Grupo Galici-Adr Financials 2,312
1.1
1,185
($mn)
1.6
Bbva Banco F-Adr Financials 859 1.3
3.3
Banco Macro -Adr Financials 2,268 2.9
Telecom Arge-Adr Telecoms 1,342
602 1.8
Siderar-A Materials
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
MSCI Argentina, $ MSCI FM, $
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan…
Jul-1
0
Jan…
Jul-1
1
Jan…
Jul-1
2
Jan…
Jul-1
3
Jan…
Jul-1
4
Jan…
Jul-1
5
Jan…
Argentina 3M ADTV ($mn)
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan…
Jul-1
0
Jan…
Jul-1
1
Jan…
Jul-1
2
Jan…
Jul-1
3
Jan…
Jul-1
4
Jan…
Jul-1
5
Jan…
Argentina Frontier
50%
30%
12%
5% 3% Financials
Energy
Telecoms
Cons.StaplesIT
69
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 244: Population, '000 Figure 245: Export destinations, total $69bn
Source: UN Source: IMF
Figure 246: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 247: Argentina - peso
Source: IMF Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel
Figure 248: Bank lending growth vs GDP Figure 249: Real GDP % change, YoY
Source: IMF Source: IMF
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0-19 20-64 65+
-2
-2
-1
-1
0
1
1
2
2
3
30
5
10
15
20
25
30
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS CPI (average % YoY)
0
50
100
150
200
250
3000.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0Ja
n-00
Dec
-00
Nov
-01
Oct
-02
Sep
-03
Aug
-04
Jul-0
5
Jun-
06
May
-07
Apr
-08
Mar
-09
Feb
-10
Jan-
11
Dec
-11
Nov
-12
Oct
-13
Sep
-14
Aug
-15
ARS vs $ ARS vs EUR Argentina REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
Stronger
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY) 9.0 9.2
8.48.0
3.1
0.1
9.5
8.4
0.8
2.9
0.5 0.4
-0.7
0.0 0.1
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
Bra
zil
EU
Eur
o A
rea
Chi
na
US
A
Chi
le
Ven
ezue
la
Uru
guay
Indi
a
Net
herla
nds
% of total exports Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
70
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 251: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 252: Economic outlook
BHD 2015 2016 2017
BBB-/Baa3 3.4 3.2 2.8
2.2% 23,899 24,507 25,500
MXBH 1.3 1.3 1.3
7.4 1.6 2.6 1.9
-4.3% -4.8 -5.9 -5.4
1.2 -14.2 -13.9 -12.6
0.5
6.9
3.1
3
0.4
BHSEASI
18.3
41
0.9
Figure 253: Index and stock data
MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF # Analyst MSCI
($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
MXBH 6,910 -1.3 -16.2 -23.9 8.1 1.2#N/A N/A 6 2.2
AUB KK 4,361 0.1 -2.9 -10.9 7.5 1.2 na 2 84.9
BATELCO BI 1,332 -5.0 -6.8 -8.5 7.1 1.0 na 2 10.8
ALBH BI 1,310 -4.3 -20.9 -29.0 na 0.5 -7.7 2 4.3
NBB BI 1,929 0.1 -3.5 -10.7 na 2.0 na 2 -
BBK BI 1,107 -10.6 -8.5 -13.8 na 1.2 na 0 -
SALAM BI 460 -12.8 -22.8 -33.1 na 0.5 na 0 -
GFH BI 327 -9.4 -12.1 -69.5 na 0.2 na 0 -
BMMI BI 330 -2.2 0.1 6.2 na 2.0 na 0 -
BISB BI 362 0.0 17.4 -21.0 na 1.3 na 0 -
BARKA BI 625 1.8 -10.4 -29.5 na 0.5 na 0 -
DUTYF BI 279 4.8 5.3 11.9 na 2.3 na 0 -
CINEMA BI 205 -9.9 -16.4 -24.0 na 1.8 na 0 -
BHOTEL BI 359 -3.1 -5.4 -3.7 na 1.9 na 0 -
ABC BI 1,555 17.6 0.0 -30.6 na 0.4 na 1 -
BCFC BI 331 0.0 9.2 9.2 na 1.2 na 0 -
ITHMR BI 333 -24.1 -29.0 -35.3 3.8 0.7 na 1 -
INVCORP BI 528 6.5 3.1 46.1 na 0.8 na 0 -
SEEF BI 238 -3.4 -2.5 -1.5 na 0.7 na 1 -
Figure 254: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 255: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x) Figure 256: MSCI sector weights
Note: gaps reflect lack of analyst estimates; spikes reflect change in index constituents
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
2016 P/E CPI (year-end, %YoY)
2016 EPS Growth C/A balance (% of GDP)
Trailing P/B Government balance (% of GDP)
Beta to FM
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
MSCI free float MktCap, $bn
BahrainFigure 250: Key data
Local Currency
S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)
Weight in MSCI FM (%) GDP/Capita, $
MSCI Index Population, mn
$ Performance
($mn) ($mn)
MSCI Bahrain 3,082 0.4
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
Local Index
MktCap ($bn)
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn)
Ticker Name Sector
Bbk Bsc Financials 471 0.1
Al-Salam Bank Financials 364 0.1
Ahli United Bank Financials 2,618 0.4
Bahrain Telecom Telecoms 333 0.0
Aluminium Bahrai Materials 131 0.0
FF Mkt Cap 3MADTV
Albaraka Banking Financials 225 0.0
Bahrain Duty Fre Cons. Disc. 209 0.0
Bahrain Cinema Cons. Disc. 179 0.1
Gfh Financial Gr Financials 309 0.0
Bmmi Bsc Cons. Disc. 245 0.1
Bahrain Islamic Financials 231 0.0
Natl Bank Bahr Financials 1,061 0.1
Ithmaar Bank Bsc Financials 156 0.0
Investcorp Bk -$ Financials 132 0.0
Seef Properties Financials 116 0.1
Gulf Hotel Group Cons. Disc. 179 0.0
Arab Banking -$ Financials 170 0.1
Bahrain Comm Fac Financials 167 0.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
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Jul-1
2
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Jul-1
3
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4
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Jan-
16
MSCI Bahrain, $ MSCI FM, $
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan…
Jul-1
0
Jan…
Jul-1
1
Jan…
Jul-1
2
Jan…
Jul-1
3
Jan…
Jul-1
4
Jan…
Jul-1
5
Jan…
Bahrain 3M ADTV ($mn)
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
Jan-
12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Jan-
13
May
-13
Sep
-13
Jan-
14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Jan-
15
May
-15
Sep
-15
Jan-
16
Bahrain Frontier
85%
11%4%
Financials
Telecoms
Materials
1,000
1,200
1,400
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
-10
-5
10
15
20
25
71
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 257: Population, '000 Figure 258: Export destinations, total $120bn
Source: UN Source: IMF
Figure 259: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 260: Bahrain - dinar
Source: IMF Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel
Figure 261: Bank lending growth vs GDP Figure 262: Real GDP % change, YoY
Source: IMF Source: IMF
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0-19 20-64 65+
-10
-5
0
5
10
15-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS CPI (average % YoY)
90
100
110
120
130
1400.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Jan-
00
Dec
-00
Nov
-01
Oct
-02
Sep
-03
Aug
-04
Jul-0
5
Jun-
06
May
-07
Apr
-08
Mar
-09
Feb
-10
Jan-
11
Dec
-11
Nov
-12
Oct
-13
Sep
-14
Aug
-15
BHD vs $ BHD vs EUR Bahrain REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
Stronger
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY)
7.0 6.86.5
8.3
6.2
2.5
4.3
2.1
3.6
5.3
4.5
3.4 3.22.8 2.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
Sau
di A
rabi
a
EU
US
A
UA
E
Eur
o A
rea
Kor
ea
Japa
n
Indi
a
Ken
ya
Tan
zani
a
% of total exports Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
72
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 264: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 265: Economic outlook
BDT 2015 2016 2017
BB-/Ba3 6.5 6.8 7.0
2.7% 1,266 1,356 1,463
MXBD 159.9 161.5 163.2
17.9 6.5 6.8 6.8
-3.5% -0.9 -1.1 -1.2
4.0 -3.2 -3.8 -3.6
0.3
9.1
2.1
5
4.0
DSEX
40.6
33
#DIV/0!
Figure 266: Index and stock data
MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF # Analyst MSCI
($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
MXBD 9,087 0.5 -3.8 -16.4 19.1 4.0 30.7 3 2.7
SQUARE BD 2,019 0.1 3.7 11.0 17.3 5.1 22.8 1 47.0
GRAM BD 4,493 3.3 4.1 -21.7 16.1 11.2 69.7 1 20.9
LAFCEM BD 1,075 -1.0 -13.7 -42.4 37.7 6.4 14.5 1 17.5
RENATA BD 827 -1.3 0.7 45.4 na 8.1 na 0 7.7
TITASGAS BD 588 -0.9 -34.2 -38.6 na 0.8 na 0 6.8
OLYMPI BD 641 5.6 9.6 33.8 30.7 14.9 36.2 2 -
BXPHAR BD 426 1.5 20.3 59.2 na 1.6 na 0 -
BATBC BD 2,267 6.0 -0.1 -0.2 na 15.5 na 1 -
ISLAMI BD 535 -6.2 -7.9 8.7 9.3 0.9 na 1 -
BEXIMC BD 258 -0.4 9.6 7.6 na 0.4 na 0 -
BRAC BD 428 -2.3 1.0 18.2 10.3 1.7 15.9 1 -
ACI BD 278 -3.5 -2.3 74.8 na 5.2 na 0 -
PUBALI BD 240 -0.1 0.5 -11.3 na 0.9 na 0 -
SUMITPOW BD 415 -0.3 11.6 13.4 na 1.6 na 1 -
HEID BD 397 -2.8 -9.4 10.8 na 4.8 na 0 -
NBL BD 208 2.1 -3.9 -13.3 na 0.6 na 0 -
DELTAL BD 177 -9.0 21.7 -18.1 na 11.9 na 0 -
IDLC BD 198 0.3 3.1 0.7 na 2.4 na 0 -
Figure 267: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 268: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x) Figure 269: MSCI sector weights
Valuation for local index due to lack of history for MSCI Index
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
Weight in MSCI FM (%) GDP/Capita, $
MSCI Index Population, mn
2016 P/E CPI (year-end, %YoY)
2016 EPS Growth C/A balance (% of GDP)
Trailing P/B Government balance (% of GDP)
BangladeshFigure 263: Key data
Local Currency
S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)
Ticker Name SectorFF Mkt Cap 3MADTV $ Performance
($mn) ($mn)
MSCI Bangladesh 2,149 4.0
Beta to FM
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
MSCI free float MktCap, $bn
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
Local Index
MktCap ($bn)
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn)
Renata Ltd Healthcare 165 0.1
Titas Gas Transm Energy 147 1.0
Olympic Inds Ltd Cons. Staples 439 0.6
Square Pharmaceu Healthcare 1,010 1.3
Grameenphone Ltd Telecoms 449 0.6
Lafarge Surma Ce Materials 377 0.9
Beximco Export Industrials 218 1.0
Brac Bank Ltd Financials 214 0.2
Aci Ltd Industrials 207 0.7
Beximco Pharmace Healthcare 370 1.7
Brit Amer Tobacc Cons. Staples 346 0.0
Islami Bank Bang Financials 299 0.2
Natl Bank Ltd Financials 153 0.1
Delta Life Insur Financials 141 0.6
Idlc Finance Financials 122 0.4
Pubali Bank Ltd Financials 177 0.0
Summit Power Ltd Utilities 174 0.7
Heidelberger Cem Materials 156 0.2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
MSCI Bulgaria, $ MSCI FM, $
0
5
10
15
20
Jan…
Jul-1
0
Jan…
Jul-1
1
Jan…
Jul-1
2
Jan…
Jul-1
3
Jan…
Jul-1
4
Jan…
Jul-1
5
Jan…
Bangladesh 3M ADTV ($mn)
55%
21%
17%
7%Healthcare
Telecoms
Materials
Energy
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-
12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Jan-
13
May
-13
Sep
-13
Jan-
14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Jan-
15
May
-15
Sep
-15
Jan-
16
DSEX Index Frontier
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
73
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 270: Population, '000 Figure 271: Export destinations, total $30bn
Source: UN Source: IMF
Figure 272: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 273: Bangladesh - taka
Source: IMF Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel
Figure 274: Bank lending growth vs GDP Figure 275: Real GDP % change, YoY
Source: IMF Source: IMF
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0-19 20-64 65+
-2
-1
-1
0
1
1
2
2
3
30
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS CPI (average % YoY)
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1600.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0Ja
n-00
Dec
-00
Nov
-01
Oct
-02
Sep
-03
Aug
-04
Jul-0
5
Jun-
06
May
-07
Apr
-08
Mar
-09
Feb
-10
Jan-
11
Dec
-11
Nov
-12
Oct
-13
Sep
-14
Aug
-15
BDT vs $ BDT vs EUR Bangladesh REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
Stronger
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY)
6.1 6.36.9
6.5
5.5 5.3
6.06.5
6.3 6.06.3 6.5
6.87.0 7.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
EU
Eur
o A
rea
US
A
Ger
man
y
UK
Net
herla
nds
Fra
nce
Spa
in
Italy
Can
ada
% of total exports Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
74
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 277: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 278: Economic outlook
BGN 2015 2016 2017
BB+/Baa2 1.7 1.9 2.0
0.1% 6,582 6,815 7,150
MXBU 7.2 7.1 7.1
na 0.3 0.9 1.5
na 1.0 0.2 -0.3
0.3 -2.0 -1.6 -1.2
0.5
0.3
0.1
2
0.0
SOFIX
1.3
15
0.1
Figure 279: Index and stock data
MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF # Analyst MSCI
($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
MXBU 272 -4.5 -4.3 -29.8 na 0.3 na 2 0.1
5MB BU 161 -6.1 0.6 -10.3 na 1.6 na 2 59.6
6C4 BU 108 -7.2 -9.0 -27.3 na 0.1 na 0 40.4
5MH BU 107 -5.4 -3.7 -11.3 na 3.0 na 1 -
6A6 BU 98 1.8 2.5 -19.7 na 0.8 na 2 -
T57 BU 75 -8.1 -9.3 -14.1 na 1.3 na 0 -
3JR BU 197 -3.8 -1.5 -29.7 na 0.9 na 2 -
5V2 BU 65 -8.8 4.6 26.6 na 0.8 na 0 -
5SR BU 43 -7.7 0.0 -13.1 na 0.9 na 1 -
4ID BU 37 -7.8 -2.2 -24.6 na 0.3 na 0 -
4I8 BU 28 -0.2 0.9 -6.4 na 1.3 na 0 -
5F4 BU 135 -2.1 -8.7 -14.4 na 0.3 na 2 -
6AB BU 111 -6.8 -4.2 -15.0 na 0.5 na 0 -
5BU BU 18 4.0 10.9 -2.1 na 0.5 na 1 -
4CF BU 63 -4.9 -5.2 -8.8 na 0.3 na 0 -
3NB BU 68 -0.5 -0.4 20.7 na 1.6 na 0 -
Figure 280: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 281: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x) Figure 282: MSCI sector weights
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
Weight in MSCI FM (%) GDP/Capita, $
MSCI Index Population, mn
2016 P/E CPI (year-end, %YoY)
2016 EPS Growth C/A balance (% of GDP)
Trailing P/B Government balance (% of GDP)
BulgariaFigure 276: Key data
Local Currency
S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)
Ticker Name SectorFF Mkt Cap 3MADTV $ Performance
($mn) ($mn)
MSCI Bulgaria 69 0.03
Beta to FM
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
MSCI free float MktCap, $bn
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
Local Index
MktCap ($bn)
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn)
Advance Ter-Reit Financials 98 0.02
Trace Group Hold Industrials 75 0.00
Sopharma Ad Healthcare 66 0.01
Monbat Ad Industrials 40 0.01
Chimimport Ad Industrials 28 0.02
M+S Hidravlik Industrials 107 0.00
Industrialen Cap Industrials 24 0.00
Cb First Financials 20 0.01
Albena Ad Cons. Disc. 20 0.01
Holding Varna A Financials 65 0.04
Stara Planina Ho Industrials 43 0.00
Industrial Holdi Industrials 37 0.00
Bulg-Real Est Fn Financials 18 0.01
Central Coop Bk Financials 11 0.01
Neochim Ad-Dimit Materials 11 0.00
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
MSCI Bulgaria, $ MSCI FM, $
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
Jan…
Jul-1
0
Jan…
Jul-1
1
Jan…
Jul-1
2
Jan…
Jul-1
3
Jan…
Jul-1
4
Jan…
Jul-1
5
Jan…
Bulgaria 3M ADTV ($mn)
100%
Industrials
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Jan-
12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Jan-
13
May
-13
Sep
-13
Jan-
14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Jan-
15
May
-15
Sep
-15
Jan-
16
n/a
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-10
-5
10
15
20
25
75
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 283: Population, '000 Figure 284: Export destinations, total $29bn
Source: UN Source: IMF
Figure 285: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 286: Bulgaria - lev
Source: IMF Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel
Figure 287: Bank lending growth vs GDP Figure 288: Real GDP % change, YoY
Source: IMF Source: IMF
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0-19 20-64 65+
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS CPI (average % YoY)
60
70
80
90
100
110
1201.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
Jan-
00
Dec
-00
Nov
-01
Oct
-02
Sep
-03
Aug
-04
Jul-0
5
Jun-
06
May
-07
Apr
-08
Mar
-09
Feb
-10
Jan-
11
Dec
-11
Nov
-12
Oct
-13
Sep
-14
Aug
-15
BGN vs $ BGN vs EUR Bulgaria REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
Stronger
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY)6.6
6.06.5
6.9
5.8
-5.0
0.7
2.0
0.51.1
1.7 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
EU
Eur
o A
rea
Ger
man
y
Italy
Tur
key
Rom
ania
Gre
ece
Fra
nce
Bel
gium
Sin
gapo
re
% of total exports Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
76
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 290: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 291: Economic outlook
HRK 2015 2016 2017
BB/Ba1 0.8 1.0 1.7
1.4% 11,551 11,813 12,321
MXCR 4.2 4.2 4.2
11.8 0.4 1.3 1.7
-61.0% 1.7 1.5 1.2
0.8 -5.1 -4.4 -3.6
0.6
2.0
1.1
2
0.5
CRO
10.0
25
1.0
Figure 292: Index and stock data
MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF # Analyst MSCI
($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
MXCR 1,954 -4.1 -6.6 -10.1 11.9 0.8 8.2 6 1.4
HTRA ZA 1,628 -3.8 -6.9 -15.3 11.4 1.0 8.8 2 71.1
ADRSPA ZA 988 -6.6 -6.7 -2.0 13.3 0.8 4.1 4 28.9
ZABARA CZ 1,695 1.3 5.4 4.7 na 0.7 na 0 -
PODRRA CZ 324 -3.7 -10.9 6.7 12.0 0.7 7.3 3 -
INARA CZ 3,833 -13.8 -15.6 -29.3 na 2.2 6.3 2 -
RIVPRA CZ 411 -4.1 -5.6 12.3 15.6 1.3 9.0 5 -
ATGRRA CZ 387 -2.6 -6.8 -14.6 11.5 1.4 11.4 4 -
KOEIRA CZ 233 -3.3 -8.8 -11.5 13.1 0.8 6.2 3 -
ERNTRA CZ 190 -2.9 -3.5 -25.5 12.7 4.0 33.8 4 -
KRASRA CZ 98 1.0 8.3 26.0 na 1.2 na 0 -
LKRIRA CZ 81 -2.7 -3.8 -40.2 na 0.8 na 0 -
TPNGRA CZ 87 -7.7 -13.7 5.1 9.2 1.0 na 1 -
ADPLRA CZ 56 -6.3 -10.0 5.5 8.8 0.6 6.0 2 -
MAISRA CZ 335 -2.8 -12.0 30.5 na 1.7 na 0 -
LKPCRA CZ 37 -9.0 -18.8 -7.3 na 0.6 na 0 -
Figure 293: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 294: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x) Figure 295: MSCI sector weights
Note: gaps reflect lack of analyst estimates; spikes reflect change in index constituents
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
Weight in MSCI FM (%) GDP/Capita, $
MSCI Index Population, mn
2016 P/E CPI (year-end, %YoY)
2016 EPS Growth C/A balance (% of GDP)
Trailing P/B Government balance (% of GDP)
CroatiaFigure 289: Key data
Local Currency
S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)
Ticker Name SectorFF Mkt Cap 3MADTV $ Performance
($mn) ($mn)
MSCI Croatia 1,149 0.5
Beta to FM
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
MSCI free float MktCap, $bn
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
Local Index
MktCap ($bn)
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn)
Podravka Prehram Cons. Staples 252 0.1
Ina Industrija Energy 233 0.0
Valamar Riviera Cons. Disc. 188 0.1
Hrvatski Telekom Telecoms 817 0.4
Adris Grupa-Pref Cons. Staples 332 0.2
Zagrebacka Banka Financials 256 0.0
Kras Dd Cons. Staples 57 0.0
Luka Rijeka Dd Industrials 51 0.0
Tankerska Next G Industrials 47 0.0
Atlantic Grupa Cons. Staples 147 0.1
Koncar-Elektoin Industrials 98 0.0
Ericsson Nikola IT 97 0.0
Ad Plastik Dd Cons. Disc. 36 0.0
Maistra Dd Cons. Disc. 33 0.0
Luka Ploce Dd Industrials 27 0.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
MSCI Croatia, $ MSCI FM, $
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan…
Jul-1
0
Jan…
Jul-1
1
Jan…
Jul-1
2
Jan…
Jul-1
3
Jan…
Jul-1
4
Jan…
Jul-1
5
Jan…
Croatia 3M ADTV ($mn)
71%
29%
Telecoms
Cons.Staples
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan-
12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Jan-
13
May
-13
Sep
-13
Jan-
14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Jan-
15
May
-15
Sep
-15
Jan-
16
Croatia Frontier
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-10
-5
10
15
77
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 296: Population, '000 Figure 297: Export destinations, total $14bn
Source: UN Source: IMF
Figure 298: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 299: Croatia - kuna
Source: IMF Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel
Figure 300: Bank lending growth vs GDP Figure 301: Real GDP % change, YoY
Source: IMF Source: IMF
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0-19 20-64 65+
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS CPI (average % YoY)
60
70
80
90
100
1101.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0Ja
n-00
Dec
-00
Nov
-01
Oct
-02
Sep
-03
Aug
-04
Jul-0
5
Jun-
06
May
-07
Apr
-08
Mar
-09
Feb
-10
Jan-
11
Dec
-11
Nov
-12
Oct
-13
Sep
-14
Aug
-15
HRK vs $ HRK vs EUR Croatia REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
Stronger
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY)4.1 4.2
4.8 5.2
2.1
-7.4
-1.7
-0.3
-2.2
-1.1-0.4
0.8 1.01.7 2.1
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
01
2345
6789
10
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
EU
Eur
o A
rea
Italy
Bos
nia
and
Her
ze
Slo
veni
a
Ger
man
y
Aus
tria
Ser
bia
Hun
gary
Rus
sia
% of total exports Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
78
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 303: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 304: Economic outlook
EUR 2015 2016 2017
AA-/A1 2.0 2.9 3.0
0.5% 17,425 18,453 19,761
MXEST 1.3 1.3 1.3
8.6 0.4 2.1 2.0
9.6% 0.6 0.3 -0.1
0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5
0.6
0.9
0.4
2
0.5
TALSE
2.0
15
0.7
Figure 305: Index and stock data
MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF # Analyst MSCI
($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
MXES 911 -0.8 3.4 2.7 8.6 0.9 8.1 5 0.5
TAL1T ET 625 -0.6 5.8 6.6 8.4 0.7 7.7 3 72.9
OEG1T ET 292 -2.3 -2.7 -5.6 8.8 2.5 25.3 2 27.1
TKM1T ET 297 -1.6 8.1 17.3 12.1 1.6 11.8 2 -
TVEAT ET 297 -0.9 -1.2 -8.2 14.1 3.3 21.7 2 -
PKG1T ET 136 4.0 -5.0 -11.9 na 1.5 -1.1 1 -
MRK1T ET 150 -9.4 -0.8 -2.4 12.8 1.1 8.2 2 -
SFG1T ET 52 -1.7 -2.0 -1.9 6.4 1.2 12.4 2 -
HAE1T ET 50 -2.0 1.9 -10.4 12.2 0.8 na 0 -
EEG1T ET 40 -6.9 0.3 2.8 6.6 0.8 10.3 1 -
PRF1T ET 16 -1.2 3.9 -46.3 18.6 0.4 na 0 -
BLT1T ET 14 -8.4 4.6 -34.2 10.1 1.8 na 0 -
NCN1T ET 35 -5.3 -1.8 -7.9 9.0 0.9 7.6 2 -
ARC1T ET 7 -1.4 9.4 12.9 8.2 0.7 na 0 -
SKN1T ET 4 0.7 -0.9 -14.8 na 0.6 na 0 -
TPD1T ET 2 -15.2 -12.8 -3.2 na 0.9 na 0 -
Figure 306: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 307: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x) Figure 308: MSCI sector weights
Valuation for local index due to lack of history for MSCI Index
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
Weight in MSCI FM (%) GDP/Capita, $
MSCI Index Population, mn
2016 P/E CPI (year-end, %YoY)
2016 EPS Growth C/A balance (% of GDP)
Trailing P/B Government balance (% of GDP)
EstoniaFigure 302: Key data
Local Currency
S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)
Ticker Name SectorFF Mkt Cap 3MADTV $ Performance
($mn) ($mn)
MSCI Estonia 430 0.5
Beta to FM
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
MSCI free float MktCap, $bn
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
Local Index
MktCap ($bn)
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn)
As Tallinna Vesi Utilities 76 0.1
Pro Kapital Grup Financials 67 0.0
As Merko Ehitus Industrials 41 0.0
Tallink Group Industrials 313 0.3
Olympic Entertai Cons. Disc. 116 0.2
Tallinna Kaubama Cons. Staples 90 0.0
Prfoods As Cons. Staples 13 0.0
Baltika As Cons. Disc. 10 0.0
Nordecon As Industrials 8 0.0
Silvano Fashio-A Cons. Disc. 32 0.0
Harju Elekter Industrials 19 0.0
Ekspress Grupp A Cons. Disc. 16 0.0
Arco Vara As Financials 4 0.0
Skano Group As Cons. Disc. 1 0.0
As Trigon Proper Financials 0 0.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
MSCI Estonia, $ MSCI FM, $
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
Estonia 3M ADTV ($mn)
73%
27%
Industrials
Cons.Disc.
5
7
9
11
13
15
Jan-
12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Jan-
13
May
-13
Sep
-13
Jan-
14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Jan-
15
May
-15
Sep
-15
Jan-
16
TALSE Index Frontier
1,000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-20
-15
-10
-5
10
15
20
25
79
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 309: Population, '000 Figure 310: Export destinations, total $16bn
Source: UN Source: IMF
Figure 311: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 312: Estonia - kroon/euro
Source: IMF Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel
Figure 313: Bank lending growth vs GDP Figure 314: Real GDP % change, YoY
Source: IMF Source: IMF
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0-19 20-64 65+
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
40
2
4
6
8
10
12
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS CPI (average % YoY)
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Jan-
00
Dec
-00
Nov
-01
Oct
-02
Sep
-03
Aug
-04
Jul-0
5
Jun-
06
May
-07
Apr
-08
Mar
-09
Feb
-10
Jan-
11
Dec
-11
Nov
-12
Oct
-13
Sep
-14
Aug
-15
EUR vs $ Estonia REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
Stronger
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY)
6.3
9.4 10.3
7.7
-5.4
-14.7
2.5
7.6
5.2
1.62.9 2.0 2.9 3.0 3.2
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
EU
Eur
o A
rea
Sw
eden
Fin
land
Latv
ia
Rus
sia
Lith
uani
a
Ger
man
y
Nor
way
Net
herla
nds
% of total exports Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
80
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 316: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 317: Economic outlook
JOD 2015 2016 2017
BB-/B1 2.9 3.7 4.5
0.8% 5,600 5,862 6,145
MXJO 6.8 7.0 7.1
8.2 1.9 2.5 2.3
17.8% -7.4 -6.5 -6.2
0.7 -3.0 -3.2 -3.3
0.3
6.1
0.6
2
0.7
JOSMGNFF
22.1
100
8.9
Figure 318: Index and stock data
MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF # Analyst MSCI
($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
MXJO 6,086 -3.2 -1.5 -5.0 8.0 0.7 8.4 5 0.8
ARBK JR 5,506 -3.3 -2.3 1.0 8.2 0.7 8.4 4 88.9
JOPH JR 571 -1.1 0.0 -16.8 6.4 0.5 7.6 1 11.1
JOPT JR 461 2.3 9.7 17.7 na 2.2 na 1 -
THBK JR 3,323 0.8 0.8 3.0 16.7 2.5 14.9 2 -
JOIB JR 752 0.4 9.4 -3.4 na 1.9 na 1 -
JOEP JR 300 13.0 9.5 -2.7 na 1.9 na 0 -
CABK JR 563 1.4 13.8 3.3 8.6 1.0 14.6 1 -
BOJX JR 627 8.9 18.3 4.5 9.5 1.3 14.1 1 -
EICO JR 592 -1.0 13.3 36.7 na 5.7 na 0 -
AHLI JR 313 1.8 6.0 -5.8 na 0.7 na 0 -
JOKB JR 573 1.9 10.8 -3.7 na 0.9 na 0 -
UBSI JR 251 6.7 9.6 1.2 na 0.7 na 0 -
AJIB JR 404 0.2 3.4 -9.4 na 1.5 na 0 -
AIEI JR 228 0.2 -2.3 -8.2 na 1.9 na 0 -
JTEL JR 986 -15.5 35.5 -15.1 na 2.2 na 0 -
RJAL JR 64 -6.5 -6.9 -5.3 4.9 0.4 na 2 -
APOT JR 2,347 -4.2 -6.8 6.5 14.5 1.9 12.6 1 -
EXFB JR 266 3.1 3.1 -24.0 na 0.7 na 0 -
Figure 319: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 320: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x) Figure 321: MSCI sector weights
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
Weight in MSCI FM (%) GDP/Capita, $
MSCI Index Population, mn
2016 P/E CPI (year-end, %YoY)
2016 EPS Growth C/A balance (% of GDP)
Trailing P/B Government balance (% of GDP)
JordanFigure 315: Key data
Local Currency
S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)
Ticker Name SectorFF Mkt Cap 3MADTV $ Performance
($mn) ($mn)
MSCI Jordan 620 0.7
Beta to FM
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
MSCI free float MktCap, $bn
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
Local Index
MktCap ($bn)
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn)
Housing Bank Financials 253 0.0
Jordan Islamic B Financials 184 0.1
Jordanian Electr Utilities 184 0.1
Arab Bank Plc Financials 551 0.6
Jordan Phosphate Materials 69 0.1
Jordan Petroleum Energy 323 0.3
Jordan Ahli Bank Financials 135 0.0
Jordan Kuwait Bk Financials 109 0.0
Bank Al Etihad Financials 82 0.0
Cairo Amman Bank Financials 165 0.2
Bank Of Jordan Financials 159 0.2
Al Eqbal Co For Cons. Staples 150 0.6
Royal Jordanian Industrials 57 0.3
Arab Potash Materials 49 0.0
Capital Bank Of Financials 47 0.0
Arab Jordan Inv Financials 78 0.0
Arab Internation Cons. Disc. 76 0.0
Jordan Telecom Telecoms 70 0.3
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
MSCI Jordan, $ MSCI FM, $
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan…
Jul-1
0
Jan…
Jul-1
1
Jan…
Jul-1
2
Jan…
Jul-1
3
Jan…
Jul-1
4
Jan…
Jul-1
5
Jan…
Jordan 3M ADTV ($mn)
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan…
Jul-1
0
Jan…
Jul-1
1
Jan…
Jul-1
2
Jan…
Jul-1
3
Jan…
Jul-1
4
Jan…
Jul-1
5
Jan…
Jordan Frontier
89%
11% Financials
Materials
81
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 322: Population, '000 Figure 323: Export destinations, total $8bn
Source: UN Source: IMF
Figure 324: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 325: Jordan - dinar
Source: IMF Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel
Figure 326: Bank lending growth vs GDP Figure 327: Real GDP % change, YoY
Source: IMF Source: IMF
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0-19 20-64 65+
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS CPI (average % YoY)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1400.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Jan-
00
Dec
-00
Nov
-01
Oct
-02
Sep
-03
Aug
-04
Jul-0
5
Jun-
06
May
-07
Apr
-08
Mar
-09
Feb
-10
Jan-
11
Dec
-11
Nov
-12
Oct
-13
Sep
-14
Aug
-15
JOD vs $ JOD vs EUR Jordan REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
Stronger
0
5
10
15
20
25
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY) 8.68.1 8.1 8.2
7.2
5.5
2.32.6 2.7 2.8
3.1 2.9
3.7
4.5 4.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
US
A
Iraq
Sau
di A
rabi
a
Indi
a
EU
UA
E
Eur
o A
rea
Syr
ia
Chi
na
Kuw
ait
% of total exports Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
82
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 329: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 330: Economic outlook
KZT 2015 2016 2017
BBB/Baa2 1.5 2.4 3.8
1.6% 11,028 9,650 10,720
MXKZ 17.7 17.9 18.2
7.6 9.0 8.0 7.0
-47.6% -3.0 -4.1 -2.1
0.5 -3.2 -0.2 0.5
1.4
3.8
1.3
2
2.3
KZKAK
7.1
9
0.3
Figure 331: Index and stock data
MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF # Analyst MSCI
($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
MXKA 3,809 -10.8 -13.3 -43.1 7.1 0.5 16.7 24 1.6
KMG LI 2,737 -7.6 -4.2 -39.7 9.0 0.6 5.7 13 82.6
HSBK LI 1,173 -13.1 -29.7 -36.0 4.4 0.9 17.1 11 17.4
KCEL KZ 600 -20.1 -36.4 -66.6 4.7 2.1 49.4 4 -
KKGB KZ 442 -23.1 -41.2 -67.2 na 0.4 na 0 -
KZTO KZ 764 -13.4 -34.7 -49.8 na 0.6 na 2 -
KZTK KZ 277 -12.9 -30.8 -47.7 na 0.3 na 1 -
KEGC KZ 498 -11.9 -19.0 -25.3 na 0.5 na 3 -
CCBN KZ 56 -20.1 -36.8 -67.4 na 0.3 na 0 -
Figure 332: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 333: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x) Figure 334: MSCI sector weights
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
Weight in MSCI FM (%) GDP/Capita, $
MSCI Index Population, mn
2016 P/E CPI (year-end, %YoY)
2016 EPS Growth C/A balance (% of GDP)
Trailing P/B Government balance (% of GDP)
KazakhstanFigure 328: Key data
Local Currency
S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)
Ticker Name SectorFF Mkt Cap 3MADTV $ Performance
($mn) ($mn)
MSCI Kazakhstan 1,330 2.3
Beta to FM
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
MSCI free float MktCap, $bn
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
Local Index
MktCap ($bn)
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn)
Kazkommertsbank Financials 139 0.0
Kaztransoil Jsc Energy 76 0.1
Kazakhtelecom Telecoms 64 0.0
Kmg Ep-Gdr Energy 1,095 1.5
Halyk Saving-Gdr Financials 235 0.3
Kcell Telecoms 229 0.0
Kazakhstan Elect Utilities 50 0.1
Bank Centercredi Financials 15 0.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
MSCI Kazakhstan, $ MSCI FM, $
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
Jan-
10
Aug
-10
Mar
-11
Oct
-11
May
-12
Dec
-12
Jul-1
3
Feb
-14
Sep
-14
Apr
-15
Nov
-15
Kazakhstan 3M ADTV ($mn)
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
-10
-5
10
15
20
25
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan…
Jul-1
0
Jan…
Jul-1
1
Jan…
Jul-1
2
Jan…
Jul-1
3
Jan…
Jul-1
4
Jan…
Jul-1
5
Jan…
Kazakhstan Frontier
83%
17% Energy
Financials
83
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 335: Population, '000 Figure 336: Export destinations, total $55bn
Source: UN Source: IMF
Figure 337: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 338: Kazakhstan - tenge
Source: IMF Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel
Figure 339: Bank lending growth vs GDP Figure 340: Real GDP % change, YoY
Source: IMF Source: IMF
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0-19 20-64 65+
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
80
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS CPI (average % YoY)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1400.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0Ja
n-00
Dec
-00
Nov
-01
Oct
-02
Sep
-03
Aug
-04
Jul-0
5
Jun-
06
May
-07
Apr
-08
Mar
-09
Feb
-10
Jan-
11
Dec
-11
Nov
-12
Oct
-13
Sep
-14
Aug
-15
KZT vs $ KZT vs EUR Kazakhstan REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
Stronger
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY)
9.6 9.7
10.7
8.9
3.3
1.2
7.3 7.5
5.0
6.0
4.3
1.5
2.4
3.8 4.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
EU
Eur
o A
rea
Chi
na
Rus
sia
Ger
man
y
Fra
nce
Italy
Gre
ece
Rom
ania
Spa
in
% of total exports Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
84
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 342: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 343: Economic outlook
KES 2015 2016 2017
B+/B1 6.5 6.8 7.0
5.4% 1,432 1,522 1,653
MXKE 44.1 45.2 46.4
9.3 6.3 5.4 5.0
19.8% -9.6 -9.2 -7.1
3.0 -8.1 -7.3 -6.1
0.7
11.3
4.4
5
5.2
NSEASI
18.9
62
6.6
Figure 344: Index and stock data
MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF # Analyst MSCI
($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
MXKE 11,272 -4.7 -3.9 -25.3 9.0 3.0 34.0 65 5.4
SAFCOM KN 5,933 -6.0 4.8 -3.7 15.1 6.3 37.5 18 33.7
EABL KN 2,048 -3.0 -3.7 -23.4 19.2 15.3 57.8 8 23.2
KNCB KN 1,131 -3.8 -5.9 -41.4 4.9 1.4 25.1 13 19.3
EQBNK KN 1,420 -3.8 -14.3 -35.5 6.5 2.0 27.3 13 17.5
COOP KN 789 -4.1 -3.3 -22.4 5.8 1.6 23.3 13 6.3
BATK KN 782 1.9 3.7 -20.3 17.2 9.8 55.2 5 -
DTKL KN 445 2.1 -1.4 -31.2 5.7 1.4 21.9 8 -
BMBC KN 614 -1.8 7.7 3.4 13.2 2.2 17.5 8 -
BCBL KN 658 -8.6 -2.7 -31.0 6.8 1.8 na 8 -
CFCB KN 309 -2.5 -1.6 -42.6 5.2 0.9 16.0 6 -
JBIC KN 290 -7.1 8.3 -2.9 7.6 1.9 na 4 -
SCBL KN 589 -4.0 -2.9 -48.4 6.1 1.5 na 7 -
NICB KN 239 -11.6 3.0 -47.7 4.6 1.0 20.5 7 -
CENTUM KN 299 -1.2 7.8 -34.6 na 0.9 na 2 -
NMG KN 321 -4.5 28.8 -42.2 11.5 3.4 26.0 3 -
CIC KN 134 -15.4 -18.3 -52.7 6.5 1.9 na 1 -
KPLL KN 224 -11.7 -24.7 -30.3 2.5 0.4 14.7 7 -
IM KN 376 -2.1 0.6 -26.8 na 1.5 na 4 -
Figure 345: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 346: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x) Figure 347: MSCI sector weights
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
Weight in MSCI FM (%) GDP/Capita, $
MSCI Index Population, mn
2016 P/E CPI (year-end, %YoY)
2016 EPS Growth C/A balance (% of GDP)
Trailing P/B Government balance (% of GDP)
KenyaFigure 341: Key data
Local Currency
S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)
Ticker Name SectorFF Mkt Cap 3MADTV $ Performance
($mn) ($mn)
MSCI Kenya 4,385 5.2
Beta to FM
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
MSCI free float MktCap, $bn
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
Local Index
MktCap ($bn)
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn)
Equity Group Hol Financials 757 2.0
Co-Operative Ban Financials 276 0.2
Brit Amer To-Ken Cons. Staples 782 0.2
Safaricom Ltd Telecoms 1,484 1.1
East African Bre Cons. Staples 1,025 1.2
Kenya Commercial Financials 843 1.2
Cfc Stanbic Hold Financials 169 0.2
Jubilee Holdings Financials 158 0.0
Standard Charter Financials 154 0.0
Diamond Trust Financials 300 0.0
Bamburi Cement Materials 224 0.1
Barclays Bank Financials 204 0.1
Cic Insurance Gr Financials 126 0.0
Kenya Power&Ligh Utilities 100 0.0
I&M Holdings Ltd Financials 94 0.0
Nic Bank Ltd Financials 144 0.0
Centum Investmen Financials 132 0.1
Nation Media Grp Cons. Disc. 129 0.1
40
90
140
190
240
290
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
MSCI Kenya, $ MSCI FM, $
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan…
Jul-1
0
Jan…
Jul-1
1
Jan…
Jul-1
2
Jan…
Jul-1
3
Jan…
Jul-1
4
Jan…
Jul-1
5
Jan…
Kenya 3M ADTV ($mn)
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan…
Jul-1
0
Jan…
Jul-1
1
Jan…
Jul-1
2
Jan…
Jul-1
3
Jan…
Jul-1
4
Jan…
Jul-1
5
Jan…
Kenya Frontier
43%
34%
23%
Financials
Telecoms
Cons.Staples
85
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 348: Population, '000 Figure 349: Export destinations, total $7bn
Source: UN Source: IMF
Figure 350: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 351: Kenya - shilling
Source: IMF Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel
Figure 352: Bank lending growth vs GDP Figure 353: Real GDP % change, YoY
Source: IMF Source: IMF
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0-19 20-64 65+
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
00
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS CPI (average % YoY)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1600.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0Ja
n-00
Dec
-00
Nov
-01
Oct
-02
Sep
-03
Aug
-04
Jul-0
5
Jun-
06
May
-07
Apr
-08
Mar
-09
Feb
-10
Jan-
11
Dec
-11
Nov
-12
Oct
-13
Sep
-14
Aug
-15
KES vs $ KES vs EUR Kenya REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
Stronger
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY)
4.6
5.7 5.9
6.9
0.2
3.3
8.4
6.1
4.6
5.75.3
6.56.8 7.0 7.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
EU
Eur
o A
rea
Uga
nda
US
A
Net
herla
nds
Tan
zani
a
Zam
bia
UK
Egy
pt
Pak
ista
n
% of total exports Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
86
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 355: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 356: Economic outlook
KWD 2015 2016 2017
AA/Aa2 1.2 2.5 2.7
20.5% 29,983 30,426 32,650
MXKW 4.1 4.2 4.3
10.5 3.3 3.3 3.5
12.5% 9.3 7.0 8.8
1.1 1.3 0.1 2.5
0.8
34.4
16.6
8
18.0
KWSEIDX
77.9
186
42.4
Figure 357: Index and stock data
MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF # Analyst MSCI
($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
MXKW 34,411 -9.9 -12.8 -28.0 10.4 1.1 12.0 42 20.5
NBK KK 11,616 -12.4 -14.7 -20.5 10.8 1.3 13.2 9 34.4
KFIN KK 7,453 -12.0 -15.2 -33.9 11.2 1.3 10.9 7 22.1
ZAIN KK 4,916 -1.4 -8.1 -35.4 7.6 0.8 10.9 10 16.3
MABANEE KK 2,462 -4.3 2.3 0.6 15.6 2.6 14.5 5 7.4
AGLTY KK 1,676 -13.4 -22.3 -45.6 na 0.5 na 1 5.6
KPROJ KK 2,523 -8.7 -8.8 -27.7 10.3 1.1 na 2 5.3
BOUBYAN KK 2,684 -10.2 -9.3 -9.2 19.1 2.6 na 1 4.9
BURG KK 2,227 -11.9 -16.5 -26.6 7.6 1.1 13.0 7 4.0
CBK KK 2,418 4.1 -0.1 -18.4 12.9 1.3 8.9 3 -
ABK KK 1,839 -6.7 -6.8 -16.0 na 1.0 na 0 -
GBK KK 2,128 -18.4 -20.1 -28.9 10.6 1.2 na 1 -
VIVA KK 1,628 0.1 13.7 39.7 9.1 6.0 47.3 6 -
FOOD KK 2,330 -10.2 -22.2 -37.0 10.5 2.0 na 3 -
BPCC KK 784 -10.9 -17.6 -21.5 na 0.8 na 0 -
KIB KK 669 -10.9 -15.6 -26.6 9.8 0.8 na 1 -
NIND KK 493 -14.0 -23.7 -43.6 na 0.4 na 0 -
SRE KK 557 -5.5 3.1 -14.3 na 1.2 na 2 -
ALTIJARI KK 441 -7.4 -12.8 -17.5 na 0.5 na 0 -
Figure 358: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 359: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x) Figure 360: MSCI sector weights
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
Weight in MSCI FM (%) GDP/Capita, $
MSCI Index Population, mn
2016 P/E CPI (year-end, %YoY)
2016 EPS Growth C/A balance (% of GDP)
Trailing P/B Government balance (% of GDP)
KuwaitFigure 354: Key data
Local Currency
S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)
Ticker Name SectorFF Mkt Cap 3MADTV $ Performance
($mn) ($mn)
MSCI Kuwait 16,567 18.0
Beta to FM
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
MSCI free float MktCap, $bn
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
Local Index
MktCap ($bn)
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn)
Mabanee Co Sakc Financials 1,232 0.9
Agility Industrials 922 2.4
Kuwait Projects Financials 884 1.4
Natl Bank Kuwait Financials 5,696 5.0
Kuwait Finance Financials 3,654 4.6
Mobile Telecommu Telecoms 2,705 2.2
Al Ahli Bank Kuw Financials 1,424 0.1
Gulf Bank Financials 1,126 0.2
Viva Kuwait Tele Telecoms 934 3.8
Boubyan Bank K.S Financials 805 0.8
Burgan Bank Financials 668 0.8
Commercial Bk Ku Financials 1,848 0.3
Natl Industries Industrials 399 0.3
Salhiahia Real Financials 378 0.0
Commercial Real Financials 355 0.2
Kuwait Food Co Cons. Disc. 773 0.6
Boubyan Petroch Materials 681 0.3
Kuwait Internati Financials 436 0.2
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
MSCI Kuwait, $ MSCI FM, $
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
Kuwait 3M ADTV ($mn)
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-10
-5
10
15
20
25
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan…
Jul-1
0
Jan…
Jul-1
1
Jan…
Jul-1
2
Jan…
Jul-1
3
Jan…
Jul-1
4
Jan…
Jul-1
5
Jan…
Kuwait Frontier
78%
16%6%
Financials
Telecoms
Industrials
87
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 361: Population, '000 Figure 362: Export destinations, total $92bn
Source: UN Source: IMF
Figure 363: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 364: Kuwait - dinar
Source: IMF Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel
Figure 365: Bank lending growth vs GDP Figure 366: Real GDP % change, YoY
Source: IMF Source: IMF
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0-19 20-64 65+
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
500
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS CPI (average % YoY)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1400.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
Jan-
00
Dec
-00
Nov
-01
Oct
-02
Sep
-03
Aug
-04
Jul-0
5
Jun-
06
May
-07
Apr
-08
Mar
-09
Feb
-10
Jan-
11
Dec
-11
Nov
-12
Oct
-13
Sep
-14
Aug
-15
KWD vs $ KWD vs EUR Kuwait REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
Stronger
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY) 10.810.1
7.5
6.0
2.5
-7.1
-2.4
10.6
7.7
0.80.1
1.22.5 2.7 2.7
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
Kor
ea
Indi
a
Japa
n
US
A
Chi
na
Tai
wan EU
Eur
o A
rea
Egy
pt
Sin
gapo
re
% of total exports Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
88
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 368: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 369: Economic outlook
LBP 2015 2016 2017
B-/B2 2.0 2.5 3.0
3.8% 11,945 12,405 12,800
MXLB 4.6 4.6 4.6
5.5 1.0 2.0 2.5
-1.7% -21.0 -19.3 -18.3
0.9 -10.0 -8.0 -8.8
0.3
5.4
3.1
4
1.4
BLOM
0.0
7
0.8
Figure 370: Index and stock data
MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF # Analyst MSCI
($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
MXLB 5,427 -0.8 5.8 -2.1 5.5 0.9 na 9 3.8
BLOM LB 2,021 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.3 0.8 na 3 39.1
SOLA LB 1,709 -1.6 14.2 -5.8 18.2 0.9 na 1 33.5
AUDI LB 2,430 0.5 2.4 -1.9 6.2 0.9 na 4 16.7
SOLB LB 1,709 -1.6 11.7 -6.2 na 0.9 na 1 10.8
BYB LB 922 1.2 1.9 -0.6 6.7 0.6 12.8 3 -
BOB LB 919 -3.2 -1.1 -1.1 na 0.7 na 1 -
HOLC LB 281 -0.7 -4.8 -3.9 na na na 0 -
RYM LB 88 0.0 0.0 0.0 na 1.8 na 0 -
BEMO LB 138 0.0 0.0 6.1 na 0.9 na 0 -
CBN LB 33 0.0 0.0 12.7 na 1.6 na 0 -
BLC LB 260 0.0 0.0 0.0 na 0.7 na 0 -
Figure 371: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 372: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x) Figure 373: MSCI sector weights
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
Weight in MSCI FM (%) GDP/Capita, $
MSCI Index Population, mn
2016 P/E CPI (year-end, %YoY)
2016 EPS Growth C/A balance (% of GDP)
Trailing P/B Government balance (% of GDP)
LebanonFigure 367: Key data
Local Currency
S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)
Ticker Name SectorFF Mkt Cap 3MADTV $ Performance
($mn) ($mn)
MSCI Lebanon 3,098 1.4
Beta to FM
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
MSCI free float MktCap, $bn
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
Local Index
MktCap ($bn)
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn)
Solidere-B Financials 335 0.1
Byblos Bank Financials 922 0.0
Bank Of Beirut Financials 919 0.2
Blom Bank Financials 1,213 1.4
Solidere-A Financials 1,033 0.3
Bank Audi Sal Financials 517 0.4
Ciments Blancs N Materials 11 na
Blc Bank Financials 5 na
Holcim Liban Materials 281 0.0
Rasamny-Younis Cons. Disc. 88 na
Banq Bemo Sal Financials 29 0.0
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
MSCI Lebanon, $ MSCI FM, $
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan…
Jul-1
0
Jan…
Jul-1
1
Jan…
Jul-1
2
Jan…
Jul-1
3
Jan…
Jul-1
4
Jan…
Jul-1
5
Jan…
MSCI Lebanon 3M ADTV ($mn)
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-10
-5
10
15
20
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan…
Jul-1
0
Jan…
Jul-1
1
Jan…
Jul-1
2
Jan…
Jul-1
3
Jan…
Jul-1
4
Jan…
Jul-1
5
Jan…
Lebanon Frontier
100%
Financials
89
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 374: Population, '000 Figure 375: Export destinations, total $3bn
Source: UN Source: IMF
Figure 376: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 377: Lebanon - pound
Source: IMF Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel
Figure 378: Bank lending growth vs GDP Figure 379: Real GDP % change, YoY
Source: IMF Source: IMF
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0-19 20-64 65+
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS CPI (average % YoY)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1600.0
500.0
1000.0
1500.0
2000.0
2500.0
3000.0Ja
n-00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Jan-
04
Jan-
05
Jan-
06
Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
13
Jan-
14
Jan-
15
LBP vs $ LBP vs EUR Lebanon REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
Stronger
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY)
5.1
2.7
1.6
9.4 9.1
10.3
8.0
0.9
2.8 2.52.0 2.0
2.53.0 3.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
Sau
di A
rabi
a
EU
UA
E
Syr
ia
Eur
o A
rea
Iraq
Sou
th A
fric
a
Sw
itzer
land
Tur
key
Jord
an
% of total exports Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
90
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 381: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 382: Economic outlook
EUR 2015 2016 2017
A-/A3 1.8 2.6 3.0
0.2% 14,318 15,366 16,631
MXLT 2.9 2.9 2.9
11.8 0.2 1.5 1.9
16.0% -2.2 -2.4 -2.2
2.8 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4
0.4
0.8
0.1
2
0.1
VILSE
1.7
22
0.4
Figure 383: Index and stock data
MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF # Analyst MSCI
($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
MXLT 783 -0.6 -2.4 -7.7 na 2.8 na 2 0.2
TEO1L LH 635 -0.3 -1.6 -7.3 na 2.6 na 0 58.3
APG1L LH 154 -0.3 -2.5 -6.5 11.7 3.1 23.7 2 41.7
KNF1L LH 159 4.2 8.9 13.1 na 0.8 na 0 -
LNA1L LH 114 -1.3 -0.7 -9.5 7.6 0.7 8.5 2 -
PZV1L LH 73 3.3 -1.9 -14.7 na 1.8 na 0 -
GRG1L LH 76 -3.8 0.5 0.4 na 1.5 na 0 -
CTS1L LH 57 -0.7 3.3 -5.7 8.0 0.8 8.6 1 -
INR1L LH 19 13.7 20.8 -78.5 na 0.2 na 0 -
RSU1L LH 55 -1.9 1.8 -2.4 na 0.5 na 0 -
INC1L LH 26 -3.5 -7.9 40.2 na 1.0 na 0 -
PTR1L LH 16 -0.4 -2.9 -2.6 na 1.4 na 0 -
AVG1L LH 63 6.8 26.5 30.2 na 1.0 na 0 -
IVL1L LH 43 -3.7 -7.0 4.8 na 0.8 na 0 -
INL1L LH 10 -2.9 -0.6 -3.1 na na na 0 -
LNS1L LH 3 5.9 -5.6 -13.0 na 1.2 na 0 -
Figure 384: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 385: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x) Figure 386: MSCI sector weights
Valuation for local index due to lack of history for MSCI Index
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
LithuaniaFigure 380: Key data
Local Currency
S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)
Weight in MSCI FM (%) GDP/Capita, $
MSCI Index Population, mn
2016 P/E CPI (year-end, %YoY)
2016 EPS Growth C/A balance (% of GDP)
Trailing P/B Government balance (% of GDP)
Beta to FM
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
MSCI free float MktCap, $bn
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
Local Index
MktCap ($bn)
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn)
Ticker Name SectorFF Mkt Cap 3MADTV $ Performance
($mn) ($mn)
MSCI Lithuania 130 0.1
Teo Lt Telecoms 76 0.0
Apranga Pva Cons. Disc. 54 0.1
Klaipedos Nafta Energy 44 0.0
Linas Agro Group Cons. Staples 37 0.2
Pieno Zvaigzdes Cons. Staples 32 0.2
Grigiskes Materials 26 0.0
City Service As Industrials 19 0.0
Invl Baltic Real Financials 17 0.0
Rokiskio Suris Cons. Staples 15 0.0
Invl Technology na 14 0.0
Panevezio Staty Industrials 8 0.0
Agrowill Group Cons. Staples 5 0.0
Invalda Lt Ab Financials 4 0.0
Invl Baltic Farm na 1 0.0
Linas Cons. Disc. 1 0.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
MSCI Lithuania, $ MSCI FM, $
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
Lithuania 3M ADTV ($mn)
58%
42%
Telecoms
Cons.Disc.
5
7
9
11
13
15
Jan-
12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Jan-
13
May
-13
Sep
-13
Jan-
14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Jan-
15
May
-15
Sep
-15
Jan-
16
VILSE Index Frontier
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-20
-15
-10
-5
10
15
20
91
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 387: Population, '000 Figure 388: Export destinations, total $32bn
Source: UN Source: IMF
Figure 389: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 390: Lithuania - litas/euro
Source: IMF Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel
Figure 391: Bank lending growth vs GDP Figure 392: Real GDP % change, YoY
Source: IMF Source: IMF
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0-19 20-64 65+
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS CPI (average % YoY)
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Jan-
00
Dec
-00
Nov
-01
Oct
-02
Sep
-03
Aug
-04
Jul-0
5
Jun-
06
May
-07
Apr
-08
Mar
-09
Feb
-10
Jan-
11
Dec
-11
Nov
-12
Oct
-13
Sep
-14
Aug
-15
EUR vs $ Lithuania REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
Stronger
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY)
7.4 7.8 7.4
11.1
2.6
-14.8
1.6
6.13.8 3.3 3.0
1.8 2.6 3.0 3.3
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
EU
Eur
o A
rea
Rus
sia
Latv
ia
Pol
and
Ger
man
y
Bel
arus
Net
herla
nds
Est
onia
UK
% of total exports Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
92
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 394: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 395: Economic outlook
MUR 2015 2016 2017
-/Baa1 3.2 3.8 3.6
1.8% 9,187 9,643 10,243
MXMR 1.3 1.3 1.3
10.3 3.0 3.0 3.0
18.0% -4.8 -4.8 -5.3
1.2 -5.0 -3.9 -3.8
0.3
3.8
2.0
3
1.5
SEMDEX
5.7
42
0.8
Figure 396: Index and stock data
MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF # Analyst MSCI
($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
MXMR 3,838 -3.6 -9.8 -21.7 8.3 1.2 11.9 11 1.8
MCBG MP 1,362 0.4 -2.6 -5.6 7.1 1.3 17.0 5 46.2
ROC SJ 2,026 -2.9 -0.7 -0.8 21.3 1.5 6.1 3 34.9
SBMH MP 556 -7.7 -16.9 -40.8 5.1 0.8 12.0 3 18.9
ALT MP 274 0.1 -10.9 -9.4 na 0.6 na 1 -
NMH MP 309 31.3 27.1 -14.3 na 0.8 na 2 -
CIEL MP 280 -2.8 -5.8 -18.3 na 0.7 na 0 -
ROGERS MP 196 1.1 -3.9 -12.5 na 0.8 na 1 -
CIM MP 146 -2.9 -2.3 -23.6 na 1.7 na 0 -
SUN MP 140 0.8 -4.8 -14.3 15.7 0.7 3.0 1 -
NRL MP 222 -2.3 -0.1 -6.2 na 1.4 na 1 -
MTMD MP 131 0.1 2.9 -20.1 na 0.5 na 0 -
PADFP MP 110 10.8 6.8 -2.1 na 0.5 na 0 -
SHELL MP 77 -5.0 -14.1 -38.2 na 4.1 na 0 -
IBL MP 260 23.0 19.5 8.1 na 1.7 na 1 -
FINCORP MP 63 22.8 18.3 -9.0 na 0.6 na 0 -
PBL MP 171 -3.1 -7.1 22.8 13.5 1.9 na 1 -
GML MP 90 -6.2 -10.5 -50.9 na 1.5 na 0 -
SAVA MP 318 7.6 3.8 -5.5 na 0.6 na 2 -
Figure 397: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 398: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x) Figure 399: MSCI sector weights
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
MauritiusFigure 393: Key data
Local Currency
S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)
Weight in MSCI FM (%) GDP/Capita, $
MSCI Index Population, mn
2016 P/E CPI (year-end, %YoY)
2016 EPS Growth C/A balance (% of GDP)
Trailing P/B Government balance (% of GDP)
Beta to FM
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
MSCI free float MktCap, $bn
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
Local Index
MktCap ($bn)
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn)
Ticker Name SectorFF Mkt Cap 3MADTV $ Performance
($mn) ($mn)
MSCI Mauritius 1,979 1.5
Mcb Group Ltd Financials 689 0.3
Rockcastle Globa Financials 1,007 1.7
Sbm Holdings Ltd Financials 283 0.1
Alteo Ltd Cons. Staples 274 0.0
New Mauritius Ho Cons. Disc. 227 0.1
Fincorp Invest Financials 63 0.0
Ciel Ltd Financials 223 0.0
Rogers & Co Ltd Industrials 171 0.0
Cim Financial Se Financials 146 0.0
Sun Limited-Cl A Cons. Disc. 140 0.0
Lux Island Resor Cons. Disc. 134 0.0
Phoenix Beverage Cons. Staples 58 0.0
Gamma Civic Ltd Cons. Disc. 57 0.0
Enl Land Ltd Cons. Staples 55 0.0
Omnicane Ltd Utilities 131 0.0
Promotion & D-Fp Financials 110 0.0
Vivo Energy Maur Energy 77 0.0
Ireland Blyth Financials 69 0.0
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
MSCI Mauritius, $ MSCI FM, $
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
Jan…
Jul-1
0
Jan…
Jul-1
1
Jan…
Jul-1
2
Jan…
Jul-1
3
Jan…
Jul-1
4
Jan…
Jul-1
5
Jan…
Mauritius 3M ADTV ($mn)
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug
-15
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
Nov
-15
Dec
-15
Mauritius Frontier
100%
Financials
93
Strategy Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 400: Population, '000 Figure 401: Export destinations, total $3bn
Source: UN Source: IMF
Figure 402: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 403: Mauritius - rupee
Source: IMF Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel
Figure 404: Bank lending growth vs GDP Figure 405: Real GDP % change, YoY
Source: IMF Source: IMF
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0-19 20-64 65+
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
00
2
4
6
8
10
12
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS CPI (average % YoY)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1400.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0Ja
n-00
Dec
-00
Nov
-01
Oct
-02
Sep
-03
Aug
-04
Jul-0
5
Jun-
06
May
-07
Apr
-08
Mar
-09
Feb
-10
Jan-
11
Dec
-11
Nov
-12
Oct
-13
Sep
-14
Aug
-15
MUR vs $ MUR vs EUR Mauritius REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
Stronger
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY)
4.3
1.5
4.5
5.95.5
3.0
4.13.9
3.2 3.23.6
3.2
3.83.6 3.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
E
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
EU
Eur
o A
rea
Fra
nce
UK
UA
E
US
A
Sou
th A
fric
a
Italy
Mad
agas
car
Spa
in
% of total exports Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
94