case study on use of hydrological model to study...
TRANSCRIPT
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Case study on use of hydrological model to study the impact of climate change on snowmelt and water availability
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Content
• Hydrological modelling system
• Model classifications
• Why hydrological models?
• Choosing the right models
• Impacts of climate change on snowmelt and water availability
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Hydrological modelling system
• Simple representation of a part of hydrological cycle
• Definition: • “Mathematical representation of the flow of water and its
constituents on some parts of the land surface or subsurface environment” (Maidment, 1993)
• “Hydrologic models are simplified, conceptual representations of a part of the hydrological cycle” (Wikipedia)
• Models are imperfect representations, but are valuable tools with which to study a variety of conditions and predict answers that would be impractical to obtain by measuring or observing the actual system (source:Comet)
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Representation of real world system
Input P, T, WS, RH, SH
Representative Processes using models Parameters
Q
T
Reality
Modelling system
SPACE
optimization
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Remember Uncertainty!!
• Spatial representation of real world is limited!
• Input data are sparse !!
• Validation data is not perfect
• Model is „just‟ a representation
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Model classification
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How to choose the best model for you?
Cat
chm
ent
dis
trib
uti
on
Sub
-bas
in
Dis
trib
ute
d
Black box Physical based Conceptual
Lum
ped
Physical Processes
Model too complex
Model too simple
optimal
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Significance of Hydrological Modelling: Understanding system dynamics and planning
Environmental changes (land use)
Climate change (precip, temp)
Water availability and demand
Scenarios analysis
hydrological system dynamics
Role of snow, glacier ground water etc.
Spatial runoff components
Understanding
Sustainable Integrated Water Resources
Management (IWRM)
Decision making
Precip
Temp
RH, WS, SH..
Measured
Hydrological models
Precip Temp
RH, WS, SH..
Modelled (WRF)
Flood forecasting
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Methodology for using hydrological models
Review your problem objectives
Look for the Right model
Look at your data availability and
Computation facilities
Calibrate the parameters
Evaluate the model performance
Re-calibrate if necessary
Customize the model if necessary
Validation is important
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Few hydrological models
• J2000 hydrological model
• SWAT hydrological model
• GR4J hydrological model
• SPHY model
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Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS) • Software framework for environmental model development and
application
• Create integrated models from single components
• Features: • Hydrological and nutrient transport models (J2000, J2000S)
• GUIs for model creation and deployment
• Various computing environments (Desktop, Grid-based, Server-based, …)
• JAVA-based, LGPL-licensed
• WWW: http://jams.uni-jena.de
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JAMS-J2000
• Process-oriented distributed hydrological model
• Implemented in the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS) framework
• a software framework for component-based development and application of environmental models.
• J2000g (simple water balance model),
• Nutrient model (J2000-S)
• JAMS Data Explorer (JADE) • Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis
• Web based calibration tools called 'OPTAS‟
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Process oriented distributed hydrological model
• Glacier melt approach • Enhanced degree day
factor
• Distributed output for each HRU
Krause, 2001
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Impacts of climate change on snowmelt and water availability Demonstration
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Thank you
Photo Credit: Santosh Nepal