The Labor Market Situation in September

October 6, 2014

Dr. Heidi Shierholz Chief Economist

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1 1 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 1

Total nonfarm employment increased 248,000

1-month change, in thousands

• September 2014 248

• August 2014 180

• July 2014 243

12-month change, in thousands

• September 2013 to 2014: 2,635

• Average: 220

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics www.bls.gov/ces

2 2 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 2

Private sector employment increased 236,000

1-month change, in thousands

• September 2014 236

• August 2014 175

• July 2014 239

12-month change, in thousands

• September 2013 to 2014: 2,588

• Average: 216

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics www.bls.gov/ces

3 3 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 3

Employment growth by super-sector this month

Over-the-month employment change, September 2014, seasonally adjusted, in thousands

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics www.bls.gov/ces

0.4%

0.2%

0.2%

0.1%

0.3%

0.1%

0.2%

0.4%

1.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4% -2

0

2

2

4

9

12

12

12

16

32

33

35

81

-15.0 0.0 15.0 30.0 45.0 60.0 75.0 90.0

Utilities

Other Services

Wholesale Trade

Transportation and Warehousing

Manufacturing

Mining and Logging*

Information*

Financial Activities

Government

Construction

Education and Health Services

Leisure and Hospitality

Retail Trade*

Professional and Business Services*

September 2013, seasonally adjusted, in thousands

1-Month Net Change

Prior 12-month average

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, bls.gov/ces

*denotes significance*denotes significance

4 4 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 4

Unemployment dropped significantly, Long-term unemployment was unchanged,

Civilian unemployment rate, by duration of unemployment, January 1990 to September 2014, seasonally adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps

4.4

1.9

6.8

4.0

10.0

5.9

5 5 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 5

Labor force participation essentially unchanged

August 2014: 62.7 %

August 2014: 62.8 %

July 2014: 62.9 %

September 2013: 63.2 %

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate, January 1990 to September 2014, seasonally adjusted

6 6 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 6

Employment rate age 25 to 54, essentially flat this month significantly up from September 2013

September 2014: 76.7 %

August 2014: 76.8 %

July 2014: 76.6 %

September 2013: 75.9 %

Employment-to-population ratio, age 25 to 54 January 1990 to September 2014, seasonally adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps

7 7 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 7

What’s going on with part-time employment?

Part time for economic and noneconomic reasons, as a percent of total employment, seasonally adjusted, 2004 to 2014

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps

8 8 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 8

2.2 million jobseekers found employment, but the same number gave up looking for work.

Labor Force Status Flows out of Unemployment, January 1990 to September 2014, seasonally adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps

9 9 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 9

Hourly earnings have remained flat

Average hourly earnings, all private sector employees, January 2007 to September 2014, seasonally adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, www.bls.gov/ces

10 10 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 10

Latino Heritage month!

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, www.bls.gov/cps

Total Hispanic or

Latino

Non-Hispanic

or Latino

Labor force by age 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

16 to 24 13.8% 17.8% 13.0%

25 to 54 64.9% 70.6% 63.8%

55+ 21.4% 11.6% 23.2%

Education of labor force (age 25+) 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Less than High School 8.2% 28.6% 4.6%

High School, no college 27.1% 30.7% 26.5%

Some college / Associates Degree 27.8% 22.8% 28.7%

Bachelors Degree or higher 36.8% 17.9% 40.2%

% foreign-born in labor force 16.3% 48.9% 10.1%

11 11 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 11

Civilian unemployment rate, by race and ethnicity, January 1990 to September 2014, seasonally adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps

Latino Heritage month!

12 12 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 12

Part time for economic reasons, by race and ethnicity, percent of total at work, 12-month moving average, January 2001 to September 2014,

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps

Latino Heritage month!

13 13 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 13

Over-the-year employment growth by super-sector Hispanic or Latino

Over-the-year employment change, Hispanic or Latino, by industry September 2013 to September 2014, not seasonally adjusted, in thousands

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, www.bls.gov/cps *denotes significance

11.4%

6.3%

8.3%

12.6%

3.4%

12.6%

2.7%

4.3%

3.8%

1.2%

2.4%

-12.6%

-20.9% -49

-49

14

32

40

56

66

73

100

150

205

233

274

-270 -180 -90 0 90 180 270

Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction*

Information

Wholesale trade

Professional and business services

Financial activities

Other services

Manufacturing

Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting

Leisure and hospitality

Transportation and utilities*

Retail trade*

Education and health services*

Construction*

Over-the-year employment change, Hispanic or Latino, by industry, September 2013 to September 2014, not seasonally adjusted, in thousands

in thousands

14 14 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 14

Latino Heritage month!

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements

Real median earnings of full-time year-round workers, by race and ethnicity 1974 to 2013, in 2013 inflation-adjusted dollars

Dr. Heidi Shierholz Chief Economist

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR