built environment analysis model² (beam²)

Kjell Bettgenhäuser

Paris, November 17th 2011

The Built Environment Analysis Model²

IEA Building Envelope Technologies and Policies Workshop

© ECOFYS | | 17/11/2011 Kjell Bettgenhäuser

Agenda

BEAM² Methodology Reference Scenario for Germany Impact Assessment Scenarios for the EU27 Discussion


Methodology

Key research questions

What energy and CO2-emission reduction potentials in buildings?

in which timeline

to what costs

with what limitations

Which role play

Financial incentives

Normative restrictions

What is the building sector contribution to climate regimes?

Bottom-up model based on sound physical, technical & economic assessments

using the EN ISO 13790 standard and others


Methodology

Building-Stock Analysis of Cities, Regions and Countries

Overview on

Energy Demand (Space Heating & Cooling, Hot Water, Electricity)

Primary Energy (incl. Fuel Mix)

CO2-and GHG-Emissions

Investments (Insulation, Heating- and Ventilation Systems)

Running Costs (Energy- and Maintenance Costs)

Effectiveness of Energy Efficiency Measures

Performance based assessment of current building stock and calculation of various scenarios for the future


Methodology

Input for

Current building stock

Reference buildings (geometries)

Thermal standards in stock (building shell)

Technology (HVAC equipment)

m² of all combinations in stock

Scenario calculation

Retrofit, new building and demolition programs

Definition of systems and efficiency standards

Climate data (HDD resp. temperature & irradiation)

Energy prices and investment costs for measures


Differences to other models in the built environment:

(i.e. Invert, Ikarus, HEAT)

• Approach (top down vs. bottom-up)

• Calculation (Performance based vs. component based)

• Type of calculation (endogenous optimizations* vs. exogenous

calculations)

• Sectors covered (residential only vs. all conditioned buildings)

• Type of energy consumption (space heating**, hot water, cooling**,

auxiliary energy, electrical appliances)

• Arithmetics (accounting models vs. calibrated models)

• Flexibility (static defined models vs. flexible models)

* IEA Energy Technology Model; ** GEA Buildings Model

Methodology


Methodology


Methodology

Implementation in a professional Oracle® database environment


Methodology


Reference Scenario Germany

Historic development of CO2-/ CO2eq-emissions in underlying studies between 1990 and 2010. Not climate corrected.

0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

kt/a

Direct and indirekt CO2-emissions [based on BMWi Energiedaten] Direct CO2-emissions only [based on BMWi Energiedaten]

[Kleemann,Hansen, 2005] CO2, Direct Emissions, Heating + Hot Water [Matthes, Gores et al., 2008] CO2, Direct Emissions, Heating and Hot Water

[Matthes, Gores et al., 2009] CO2-eq, Direct Emissions, Heating and Hot Water [Matthes, Gores et al., 2009] CO2, Direct Emissions, Heating and Hot Water



1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Energy advise for private consumers

Environmental Label "Blue Angel" (Umweltzeichen "Blauer Engel")

Heating Installations Ordinance (Heizungsanlagenverordnung) of 1978/82

BMU Programme for the Financing of Demonstration Projects

Ordinance on Heat Consumption Metering (Heizkostenverordnung)

Thermal Insulation Ordinance (Wärmeschutzverordnung) of 1982

DtA Environmental Finance Programme (DtA-Umweltprogramm)

KfW Environmental Protection Programme (KfW-Umweltprogramm)

Environmental Debt Guarantee Programme (Umweltschutzbürgschaftsprogramm)

Small-Scale Combustion Plant Ordinance (Kleinfeuerungsanlagenverordnung)

Housing modernisation programme for the new Federal states (Wohnraum-Modernisierungsprogramm neue Bundesländer)

On-site energy advice (Vor-Ort-Beratung)

Small-Scale Combustion Plant Ordinance (Kleinfeuerungsanlagenverordnung)

“100-million-DM programme” for renewables

Heating Installations Ordinance (Heizungsanlagenverordnung) of 1994

Thermal Insulation Ordinance (Wärmeschutzverordnung) of 1994

Voluntary agreement with German industry I (Erklärung der deutschen Wirtschaft zur Klimavorsorge I)

ERP Environmental Protection and Energy Saving Programme (ERP-Umwelt- und Energiesparprogramm)

Ecological Bonus Programme for owner-occupied homes

KfW CO2 Reduction Programme (KfW-Programm zur CO2-Minderung)

ECO Managment and Audit Scheme (EMAS)

Energy Consumption Labelling Ordinance (Energieverbrauchskennzeichnungsverordnung)

100 000 Roofs Solar Power Programme (100 000-Dächer-Solarstrom-Programm)

Ordinance on Maximum Energy Consumption (Energieverbrauchshöchstwerteverordnung)

Ecological Tax Reform (Ökologische Steuerreform)

Market Incentive Programme for Renewable Energies (Marktanreizprogramm für erneuerbare Energien)

Voluntary agreement with German industry II

German Energy Agency (Deutsche Energie-Agentur – dena)

KfW CO2 Building Rehabilitation Programme (KfW-CO2-Gebäudesanierungsprogramm)

Voluntary Agreement on CHP (Selbstverpflichtung der Wirtschaft zur Förderung der KWK)

Energy Savings Ordinance (Energieeinsparverordnung - EnEV)

Energy Efficiency Campaign (Initiative EnergieEffizienz)

Heat Power Cogeneration Act (Kraft-Wärme-Kopplungsgesetz)

KfW Housing Modernisation Programme 2003

Legend Act on the Further Development of the Ecological Tax Reform

KfW Programme Ecological Construction

Measure-effects in underlying studies quantified KfW Programme Housing Modernisation

Measure-effects in underlying studies not quantified Energy certificates for buildings

Special fund for energy efficiency in SME's

Measure in force Eco-Design of Energy-using Products

Smart metering

CO2-mitigating measures in the German building sector between 1990 and 2010

in chronological order. Source: Mure II database



Quantification of CO2-emission reductions in 2010 [Mt CO2/a].

Future retrofit- and new-building rates.



0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

kt/a

Heating + Hot Water (all buildings) [BMWi] direct and indirect emissions Heating + Hot Water (all buildings) [BMWi] direct emissions only

"-40% in 2020" target Heating + Hot Water (all buildings)

Sensitivity retrofit rate 1.8% Sensitivity retrofit rate 1.0%

-40% Emission Saving Target

CO2-mitigating potential for heating and hot water in residential and non-residential buildings up to 2010

from study evaluation and forecast until 2020. For 2010-2020, three scenarios with different retrofit-rates

(1.0%, 1.4% and 1.8%) are calculated, resulting in different emission paths. Not climate corrected.


Impact Assessment EU27

Source: Impact assessment for the revised EPBD, Report for the EC, Ecofys 2008.

Useful floor area in 2005 in mio m²

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

mio

m²

Floor area 10.721 2.061 1.730 2.373 1.244 1.091 4.353

RH (50-200 m²)MFH small (200-

500 m²)

MFH medium

(500-1000 m²)

MFH large

(>1000 m²)

Non-res

building (200-

500m²)

Non-res

building (500-

1000m²)

Non-res

building (>1000

m²)

Areas residential and non-residential buildings in the EU27 in 2005

CO2 Emissions from space heating in 2005 in Mt/a

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Mt/

a

CO2-emissions 467 47 38 61 49 41 170

RH (50-200

m²)

MFH small

(200-500 m²)

MFH medium

(500-1000 m²)

MFH large

(>1000 m²)

Non-res

building (200-

500m²)

Non-res

building (500-

1000m²)

Non-res

building

(>1000 m²)

CO2-emissions from space heating, residential and non-residential buildings in the EU27 in

2005




EU15 Eastern EU

New building rate 1% 1%

Demolition rate 0,5% 0,5%

Retrofit rate of buildings not affected by the current EPBD 0,7% 0,4%

Retrofit rate of buildings affected by the current EPBD 1,8% 1,0%

Development rates of the EU27 building stock

Scenario Description

Original EPBD >1000 m² Original EPBD as from 2006 with 1.000 m² threshold

EPBD >500 m² Original EPBD in 2006, threshold of 500 m² as from 2009



Scenarios threshold options

&


EPBD >500 m², high retrofit As according scenario above, with improved retrofit rate



Scenarios high retrofit rate


EPBD >500 m², high retrofit, low

energy

As according scenario above with improved thermal standards


energy



energy


Scenar ios improved thermal s tandards



Endenergy EU-27

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

2009 2014 2019 2024 2029

year

TW

h/a

EU27-EPBD (>1000) EU27-EPBD(>500)

EU27-EPBD(>200) EU27-EPBD (>50)

EU27-EPBD (>50), high retrofit EU27-EPBD (>50), high retrofit, improved thermal standards





Endenergy savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in TWh/a

threshold already partially abolished

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

TW

h/

a

EPBD >500 m² 3 33 37

EPBD >200 m² 6 63 66

EPBD >50 m² 23 230 246

2010 2020 2030

CO2 savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in Mt/a

threshold already partially abolished

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Mt/

a

EPBD >500 m² 1 8 9

EPBD >200 m² 1 14 15

EPBD >50 m² 5 51 55

2010 2020 2030


threshold already partially abolished, high retrofit

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

TW

h/

a

EPBD >500 m² 13 104 115

EPBD >200 m² 20 156 168

EPBD >50 m² 56 475 498

2010 2020 2030


threshold already partially abolished, high retrofit

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Mt/

a

EPBD >500 m² 3 25 27

EPBD >200 m² 5 36 39

EPBD >50 m² 13 108 112

2010 2020 2030


threshold already partially abolished, high retrofit, improved

thermal standards

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

TW

h/

a

EPBD >500 m² 22 148 194

EPBD >200 m² 30 211 270

EPBD >50 m² 73 612 759

2010 2020 2030


threshold already partially abolished, high retrofit, improved

thermal standards

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Mt/

a

EPBD >500 m² 5 35 46

EPBD >200 m² 7 50 63

EPBD >50 m² 17 139 171

2010 2020 2030




Additional annual capital costs compared to EPBD (>1.000)

in Billion €/a threshold partially abolished, high retrofit, improved

thermal standards

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Bil

lio

n €

/ a

EPBD >500 m² 1 6 11

EPBD >200 m² 1 9 16

EPBD >50 m² 3 24 41

2010 2020 2030

Annual energy cost savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in Billion €/a

threshold partially abolished, high retrofit, improved thermal

standards

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Bil

lio

n €

/ a

EPBD >500 m² 2 16 24

EPBD >200 m² 3 23 34

EPBD >50 m² 7 66 94

2010 2020 2030

Total annual profit compared to EPBD (>1.000) in Billion €/a

threshold partially abolished, high retrofit, improved thermal

standards

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Bil

lio

n €

/ a

EPBD >500 m² 1 10 13

EPBD >200 m² 2 14 19

EPBD >50 m² 4 43 53

2010 2020 2030


Successfully applied for…

Kjell Bettgenhäuser

Ecofys Germany

E: [email protected]

T: +49 221 270 70-157

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]