bt financial monthly market chart - november 2009

BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – November 2009

An overview of movements in global financial markets

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Global share markets were mixed in November...

Global share markets were a mixture of the good and the bad in November, with strong performances in the US (+5.7%) and the UK (+2.9%) countered by losses in Europe (-1.0%) and Japan (-6.9%).

The Australian share market largely reversed last month’s fall, with the S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index closing 1.8% higher after AMP made a bid for AXA Asia Pacific, the Australian unit of France’s biggest insurer. Any corporate activity in the current economic environment is viewed favourably by the market and the news was even enough to overshadow a surprise drop in September’s retail trade numbers.

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Global shares measured by the MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$.Source: BT Financial Group, MSCI

Impact of major market events on global shares since 1987

…but continue to perform well over the long-term, despite some major market events

700

1,200

1,700

2,200

2,700

3,200

3,700

4,200

4,700

5,200

5,700

6,200

Nov-87 Nov-89 Nov-91 Nov-93 Nov-95 Nov-97 Nov-99 Nov-01 Nov-03 Nov-05 Nov-07 Nov-09

Jan 91Gulf War

Feb 94Bond Market Crash

Aug 97Asian Currency Crisis

Jul 98Russian Bond Crisis

Jul 01Tech Wreck

Sep 01Attack on Twin Towers

Jun 07US Sub-prime Crisis

Nov 89Fall of the Berlin Wall Mar 03

Troops enter Iraq

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Source: BT Financial Group, Premium Data

S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index – year to 30 November 2009

The Australian share market closed 1.8% higher in November

21,000

22,500

24,000

25,500

27,000

28,500

30,000

31,500

33,000

34,500

30/11/2008 30/01/2009 30/03/2009 30/05/2009 30/07/2009 30/09/2009 30/11/2009

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Key Australian economic news – November

As was widely expected, the Reserve Bank raised interest rates by a further 0.25% (to 3.75%) at its early December meeting. It was the first time ever that the Bank has raised the official cash rate three times in a row. The RBA doesn’t meet in January but the market is already bracing itself for further rate hikes in February and March next year.

The Westpac/Melbourne Institute’s consumer sentiment survey eased 2.5% in November – its first monthly decline since May this year.

National Australia Bank’s business conditions survey jumped to a 22-month high in October as local businesses gained confidence in the recovery.

The Australian economy gained a further 24,500 jobs in October, well above the market consensus of a loss of 10,000 jobs.

Source: BT Financial Group

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The Australian dollar continues to move higher against the US dollar

The Australian dollar was again higher against its US counterpart in November, gaining a further 1.8% on expectations that the Reserve Bank will continue to raise interest rates over the coming months. The local currency hit a high of US$0.9405 cents mid-month before eventually closing at US$0.9149 cents.

The A$ is now up 52% against the US$ since hitting a low of US$0.6012 cents in October last year and looks set to test the US$0.95 cent mark within the next couple of months.

At the end of November:

A$1 bought US$0.9149 +1.8%

€0.6098 -0.3%

¥78.95 -2.5%Source: BT Financial Group

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Currency markets – A$ per US dollar

Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 30 November 2009

0.6300

0.6600

0.6900

0.7200

0.7500

0.7800

0.8100

0.8400

0.8700

0.9000

0.9300

0.9600

0.9900

Nov-04 May-05 Nov-05 May-06 Nov-06 May-07 Nov-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09

The Australian dollar versus the US dollar…

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Currency markets – A$ per Euro

the Euro…

0.4900

0.5050

0.5200

0.5350

0.5500

0.5650

0.5800

0.5950

0.6100

0.6250

0.6400

0.6550



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and the Yen

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


Currency markets – A$ per Yen


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Official world interest rate movements – November

Interest rate movements were once again limited in November, with all the major central banks keeping their respective benchmark rates on hold. The Reserve Bank of Australia moved to raise the official cash rate by 0.25% in early December.

Current rate Last movedDirection of last move

Australia 3.75% Dec 2009

US 0% - 0.25% Dec 2008

Europe (ECB) 1.00% May 2009

Japan 0.10% Dec 2008

United Kingdom 0.50% Mar 2009


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30 November 2009

Global share market returns

1 year 3 years (pa) 5 years (pa)

Global

S&P 500 Index (US) 22.25% -7.86% -1.37%

Nasdaq (US Tech.) 39.66% -4.10% 0.45%

Nikkei 225 (Japan) 9.79% -16.88% -3.03%

Hang Seng (Hong Kong) 57.12% 4.80% 9.19%

DAX (Germany) 20.48% -3.75% 6.40%

CAC (France) 16.75% -10.58% 0.29%

FTSE 100 (UK) 21.05% -4.97% 1.99%

Australia

S&P/ASX 200 Accum. Ind. 31.72% -0.72% 8.25%

S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries 57.22% -4.86% 5.78%

S&P/ASX 300 Listed Prop. -5.07% -22.53% -7.18%

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Short-term asset class performance

Source: S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond Index hedged to $A , UBS Bank Bill 0+ years

1-year rolling returns to 30 November 2009 (%) Best performing asset class for the year

2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994

Australian cash

3.58 7.79 6.66 5.96 5.72 5.61 4.86 4.71 5.42 6.18 4.97 5.15 5.79 7.62 7.97 5.20

Australian bonds

3.40 13.35 3.32 4.41 4.81 8.86 3.54 5.50 8.35 9.38 -0.28 10.30 11.28 12.40 19.91 -5.21

Australian property

-5.07 -53.44 5.19 31.67 12.54 29.85 6.97 12.45 18.45 15.33 -5.05 20.45 16.94 18.41 11.74 -0.98

Australian shares

31.72 -39.95 23.72 23.49 23.01 28.67 8.64 -4.80 5.38 14.08 14.45 15.14 8.46 14.57 20.29 -2.71

International bonds

11.48 6.88 5.84 5.83 6.61 9.26 7.35 8.87 10.29 8.08 0.82 10.91 9.11 11.48 19.46 -1.77

International shares

-7.31

-22.44 0.01 12.56 16.40 9.15 -7.78 -21.75 -15.34 11.66 20.05 30.70 34.44 8.36 22.45 -6.40

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Source: S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond Index hedged to $A

1-year returns to 30 November 2009 (%)

Short-term asset class performance (cont’d)

-7.3

11.5

32.5

-5.1

3.4

-22.4

6.9

-40.5

-53.4

13.4

30 November 2008

30 November 2009

Australian bonds

Listed property

Australian shares

Global bonds

Global shares

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Long-term asset class performance

Note: Accumulated returns based on $1,000 invested in December 1984Source: S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, UBS Bank Bill 0+ years

30 November 2009

Australian bonds

Listed property

Australian shares

Cash

Global shares

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Source: BT Financial Group. West Texas Intermediate oil price at 30 November 2009

Oil prices – US$ per barrel

Oil prices were relatively flat after rising US stockpile levels offset hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico

$0

$15

$30

$45

$60

$75

$90

$105

$120

$135

$150

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

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This presentation has been prepared for BT Financial Group Limited (ABN 63 002 916 458) ‘BT’ and is for general information only. Every effort has been made to ensure that it is accurate, however it is not intended to be a complete description of the matters described. The presentation has been prepared without taking into account any personal objectives, financial situation or needs. It does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any securities advice or securities recommendation. Furthermore, it is not intended that it be relied on by recipients for the purpose of making investment decisions and is not a replacement of the requirement for individual research or professional tax advice. BT does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information which is contained in this presentation. Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, BT and its directors, employees and consultants do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this presentation or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise noted, BT is the source of all charts; and all performance figures are calculated using exit to exit prices and assume reinvestment of income, take into account all fees and charges but exclude the entry fee. It is important to note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

This document was accompanied by an oral presentation, and is not a complete record of the discussion held.

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bt financial monthly market chart - november 2009

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