bt financial monthly market chart - june 2010

BT Monthly Markets Chart

Pack – June 2010

An overview of movements in global financial markets

2

Weaker than expected economic data added to

European debt woes and kept sentiment negative.

Global share markets generally fell in June in a continuation of the decline seen in May. The S&P 500 fell 5.4% and the Nikkei was down 3.95%. In Europe the DAX managed to close almost flat but other markets fell. The Hong Kong market managed a small increase of 1.84%.

The Australian share market posted a decline in June, with the S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index dropping 2.89%. Australian Bonds posted another monthly increase.

3

Source: BT Financial Group.

Equity markets: Global, US, Australia – For June rebased to 31 May 2010

In June global equity markets continued to move

lower

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

31/05/10

5/06/10

10/06/10

15/06/10

20/06/10

25/06/10

30/06/10

S&P 500 MSCI World Index S&P/ASX 200

4

Source: BT Financial Group, Bloomberg

S&P/ASX 200 Index – 1 year to June 2010

The Australian share market closed down 2.59% in

June.

3,700

3,900

4,100

4,300

4,500

4,700

4,900

5,100

1/07/09 1/09/09 1/11/09 1/01/10 1/03/10 1/05/10

5

Key Australian economic news – June

The Reserve Bank of Australia did not raise interest rates at its monthly meeting in June. In July it decided to once again hold rates steady but recent inflation data points to the RBA perhaps having to increase rates at the August meeting. The official cash rate remains at 4.5%.

Building approvals slipped 6.6% in May and this was worse than the static rate expected.

The Manufacturing Index dropped by 3.4 points to 52.9 in June which while still in expansion mode it does indicate a slowing in the growth rate.

The ANZ job advertisements index rose 2.7 % in June bringing the annual growth rate to 32.2%.

The unemployment rate declined to 5.1% in June and May’s reading of 5.2% was revised downwards to 5.1%.

Retail sales grew by 0.2% in May which was below expectations of growth of 0.3%.

Consumer confidence continued to decline with the Westpac/Melbourne Institute’s consumer sentiment survey showing another sharp drop of 5.7% from May to June. That decline takes the cumulative decline in the last two months to 12.3% which is the worst two month result since March 2008.

Source: BT Financial Group

6

The Australian dollar recovered some lost ground in

June after steep falls in May.

The Australian dollar gained against the Euro and the US dollar but it continued

to decline in value against the Yen and the British pound.

The Australian dollar suffered in tandem with global equity markets. The lack of

an RBA interest rate increase in June did not have an overly negative effect on

the value of the Australian dollar.

At the end of June:

A$1 bought US$0.8447 +0.7%

€0.6896 +0.88%

¥74.74 -2.11%


7

Currency markets – A$ per US dollar

Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 30 June 2010

0.6300

0.6600

0.6900

0.7200

0.7500

0.7800

0.8100

0.8400

0.8700

0.9000

0.9300

0.9600

0.9900

Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10

The Australian dollar versus the US dollar…

8

Currency markets – A$ per Euro

the Euro…

0.4900

0.5050

0.5200

0.5350

0.5500

0.5650

0.5800

0.5950

0.6100

0.6250

0.6400

0.6550

0.6700

0.6850

0.7000

0.7150



9

and the Yen

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


Currency markets – A$ per Yen


10

Official world interest rate movements – June

Interest rates in the major economies remained unchanged in June. The

Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady at 4.5% at both the June and the

July interest rate meetings.

Current rate Last moved

Direction of

last move

Australia 4.50% May 2010

US 0% - 0.25% Dec 2008

Europe (ECB) 1.00% May 2009

Japan 0.14% Dec 2008

United Kingdom 0.50% Mar 2009


11


As at 30 June 2010

Global share market returns

1 year 3 years (pa) 5 years (pa)

Global

S&P 500 Index (US) 12.12% -11.82% -2.85%

Nasdaq (US Tech.) 14.94% -6.77% 0.50%

Nikkei 225 (Japan) -5.78% -19.73% -4.13%

Hang Seng (Hong Kong) 9.52% -2.58% 7.23%

DAX (Germany) 24.06% -9.35% 5.40%

CAC (France) 9.63% -17.15% -4.03%

FTSE 100 (UK) 15.71% -9.38% -0.78%

Australia

S&P/ASX 200 Accum. Ind. 13.15% -7.85% 4.52%

S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries 11.18% -14.20% 2.74%

S&P/ASX 300 Listed Prop. 20.34% -24.31% -8.34%

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Short-term asset class performance

Source: S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property

Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond Index hedged to $A , UBS Bank Bill 0+ years

1-year rolling returns to 30 June 2010 (%) Best performing

asset class for the

year

2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995

Australian

cash3.89 6.69 6.99 6.21 5.80 5.56 5.11 4.91 4.77 6.36 5.24 5.09 5.41 7.14 7.89 6.21

Australian

bonds7.86 12.77 4.29 3.70 6.74 4.80 4.17 10.09 2.35 11.82 1.79 6.65 15.68 12.56 12.80 2.37

Australian

property20.34 -58.05 -24.16 28.62 18.48 19.97 13.94 13.84 17.38 13.03 2.91 4.26 28.76 19.95 4.71 1.82

Australian

shares 13.15 -29.52 -7.04 21.78 30.35 25.63 23.41 -11.93 12.15 3.90 13.18 10.71 18.21 13.55 20.92 -1.89

International

bonds11.51 7.02 8.01 6.38 4.85 6.82 7.66 13.38 5.73 10.83 1.66 8.43 12.55 10.01 14.58 5.55

International

shares5.22 -24.48 -14.56 1.47 27.96 8.80 13.74 -33.38 -12.67 -7.05 27.06 18.40 56.60 9.13 12.51 4.56

13

Source: S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property

Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond Index hedged to $A

1- year return to 30 June 2010 and total 2009 performance (%)

Short-term asset class performance (cont’d)

5.2

11.5

13.2

20.3

7.9

-24.5

7.0

-29.5

-58.1

12.8

1 January 2010

30 June 2010

Australian bonds

Listed property

Australian shares

Global bonds

Global shares

14

Long-term asset class performance

Note: Accumulated returns based on $1,000 invested in December 1984

Source: S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+

years index, UBS Bank Bill 0+ years

30 June 2010

Australian bonds

Listed property

Australian shares

Cash

Global shares

$0

$1,500

$3,000

$4,500

$6,000

$7,500

$9,000

$10,500

$12,000

$13,500

$15,000

$16,500

$18,000

$19,500

$21,000

$22,500

$24,000

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

15

Source: Bloomberg: Front month WTI futures closing price 30 June 2010

Oil prices – US$ per barrel

Oil prices recovered slightly in June after a steep fall

in May.

$0

$15

$30

$45

$60

$75

$90

$105

$120

$135

$150

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

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information only. Every effort has been made to ensure that it is accurate, however it is not intended to be a complete

description of the matters described. The presentation has been prepared without taking into account any personal

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does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information which is contained in this

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figures are calculated using exit to exit prices and assume reinvestment of income, take into account all fees and charges

but exclude the entry fee. It is important to note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

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bt financial monthly market chart - june 2010

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