brookings metropolitan policy program: global cities initiative, louisville and lexington
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Presentation by Bruce Katz, Vice President of the Brookings Institution and Director of the Metropolitan Policy Program. Global Cities Initiative forum in Louisville, KY on June 26, 2014. The Global Cities Initiative is a Joint Project of Brookings and JPMorgan Chase. For more information: http://www.brookings.edu/projects/global-cities.aspxTRANSCRIPT
Louisville, KY / June 26, 2014@bruce_katz #globalcities
7.0 millionjobs needed
More Jobs
More Jobs & Better Jobs
81 millionpoor or near poor in 2000
107 millionpoor or near poor in 2011
HUMAN CAPITALINNOVATION
MANUFACTURING
INFRASTRUCTURE
STEM
ADVANCED ENERGY
EXPORTS
R&DOPPORTUNITY
CONSUMPTION
DEBTCONSUMPTION
DEBTDEBTCONSUMPTION
CONSUMPTION DEBTDEBT
CONSUMPTIONDEBT
Pre-Recession Economy Next Economy
The imperative for global engagement
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2 3
Metros are centers of global trade and investment
1 2 31
2
3
1 2 31 2
3 Metros are engaging globally in new ways
METROINNOVATION
The imperative for global engagement
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1
2 3
2013
Global GDP
22.8%US
17.5%BIC Countries
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2013
2018
Global GDP
25.9%BIC Countries
20.6%US
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2013
Global Metro Population
2009
50%
Global Metro Population
2030
60%
Source: UN Department of Economic-Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects, 2009
Source: UN Department of Economic-Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects, 2011
31%
China Africa
49% 39%
India
Urban Share of Total Population2010
Source: UN Department of Economic-Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects, 2011
China Africa India
+297 million by 2030
+227 million by 2030
+343 million by 2030
40%69% 48%
Urban Share of Total Population2030
Global Middle Class - 2009 | Share of Global Totals
18%North America
36%Europe 28%
Asia Pacific
Source: Kharas and Gertz, “The New Global Middle Class,” 2010
Global Middle Class - 2030 | Share of Global Totals
7%North America
14%Europe 66%
Asia Pacific
Source: Kharas and Gertz, “The New Global Middle Class,” 2010
5,600$1 billion increase in exports supports
jobs
11%wage premiumin exporting firms
Greater likelihood of health and retirement benefits in export-intense industries
Sources: ITA, Jobs Supported by Exports 2013; Brookings, ExportNation (2010)
Exports Share of GDP2010
13%
United States
29% 22%
15%
30%
Japan
China Canada India
European Union
15%
Source: Brookings analysis of WTO and EIU data, 2011
Can we get back into the export game?
billionUS manufactured exports 2010
$944
Japan
$680$944
United States GermanyFrance
$409
China
$1477
$1091
Top Manufacturing Exporting CountriesBillions, 2010
Source: World Trade Organization, 2011
$358
ServiceImports
ServiceExports
$518
US Service TradeBillions, 2010
$160 billiontrade surplus
Source: World Trade Organization, 2011 (Data reflect Commercial Services)
U.S. Value Added in U.S. Imports 2009
2%
25%
40%
4%
European Union
Canada MexicoChina
Source: Brookings, Metro North America (2013)
Can we realize the potential of global markets?
Advanced Industries
Innovation Human Capital Infrastructure
Software Computer Systems Design
Telecommunications R&D Consulting Services
Services
Pharmaceuticals AdvancedMachinery
Medical EquipmentMotor Vehicles & Parts
Computer & Electronic Devices
Aerospace
Manufacturing
Advanced Industries
85%advanced industry share of private sector R&D
67%advanced industry share of patents
30%advanced industryshare of engineers
Sources: Brookings analysis of BRDIS, Strumsky-Lobo Patent Database, and OES data
Advanced Industries
Drive Productivity in Other Industries
Stimulate Local Economies
Support LongSupply Chains
Develop Technology that Transforms Lives
Advanced Industries
Advanced Industries
Innovation Human Capital Infrastructure
Japan
3.5% 4.4%
France United States
United Kingdom
3.1%
European Union
5.0%3.8%
Germany South Korea
China
5.5%
10.9%
20.7%
Growth of Domestic R&D ExpendituresAverage Annual Growth, 2001-2011
Source: National Science Foundation, SEI 2014
Innovation
Advanced Industries
Innovation Human Capital Infrastructure
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey
Hispanics
19%
African Americans
Non-Hispanic Whites
Asians
25%39%
56%
Educational AttainmentAssociate’s Degree or Higher
United States
36%
Human Capital
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey
Hispanics
19%
African Americans
25%
Educational AttainmentAssociate’s Degree or Higher
Human Capital
Advanced Industries
Innovation Human Capital Infrastructure
Infrastructure
Transport Networks are Clogged and Congested
Metros are centers of global trade and investment
1 2 31
2
3
Source: Brookings analysis of US Bureau of Economic Analysis data
Louisville/Jefferson County Metropolitan AreaLexington-Fayette Metropolitan Area
Source: Brookings, Metropolitan Areas and the Next Economy (2011)
Population
43%
GDP
34%
Kentucky
Louisville/Jefferson County Metropolitan AreaLexington-Fayette Metropolitan Area
Source: Brookings, Metropolitan Areas and the Next Economy (2011)
Population
68%
GDP
57%
Kentucky
Service Exports
75%62%
Manufacturing Exports
Population
66%
Top 100 Metro ExportsShare of U.S. Totals
Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2013
Top 100 Metro Exports
Chemical Products
68% 76%
Business/Professional
Services
Computer/Electronic Products
78%
Population
66%
Share of U.S. Totals
Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012
Top 100 Metro International Connectivity
Air Cargo
83% 83%
Water Cargo Air Passengers
96%
Population
66%
Share of U.S. Totals
Source: Brookings, Global Gateways (2012) and Metro Freight (2013)
Aerial imagery: © DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Sanborn, USGS, USDA FSA, warrior481.blogspot.comPhotos: Freescale Semiconductor, Honeywell Aerospace, Arizona State University
Aerial imagery: © DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Sanborn, USGS, USDA FSA, warrior481.blogspot.comPhotos: Freescale Semiconductor, Honeywell Aerospace, Arizona State University
Louisville and Lexington, KY - Human Capital & Innovation Dashboard
STEM JobsLouisville Metro
19.5%Share of Jobs in STEM
58th of Top 100 Metros
57.5%STEM Jobs Not Requiring BA
25th of Top 100 Metros
Source: Brookings, State of Metropolitan America (2010), Hidden STEM Economy (2013) and Patenting Prosperity (2013)
Education
Top 100Metros
LouisvilleMetro
Bachelor’s Degree Attainment
32%25%
LexingtonMetro
34%
Patents
162Average Annual Patents,
2007-2011
Louisville,87th of 358 Metros
0.3Patents per 1k Workers
Louisville,210th of 358 Metros
Top Patenting EntitiesLexmark International
General ElectricUniversity of KentuckyUniversity of Louisville
Sud-Chemie
Lexington,75th of 358 Metros
209
Lexington,80th of 358 Metros
0.8
$8.75 b
Top 100Metros
LouisvilleMetro
Export Intensity
12.7%15.0%
Export Value Goods & Services Exports
19.3%services share of exports
80.7%goods share
of exports
Top Sectors - LouisvilleTop Sectors - Louisville
Motor Vehicles 19%
Motor Vehicle Parts 10%
Household Appliances 5.1%
Top Sectors - LexingtonTop Sectors - Lexington
Motor Vehicles 25%
Motor Vehicle Parts 15%
Petroleum and CoalProducts 4.8%
Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2013
Louisville and Lexington KY - Export Dashboard
44th of 366 Metros
LexingtonMetro
18.8%
$4.38 b79th of 366 Metros
Louisville, KY
Lexington, KY
Louisville and Lexington, KY - North America Supply Chain
Source: Brookings, Metro North America (2013)
Motor VehiclesGoods Trade
Between Louisville and North American neighbor
metros
PueblaMexico City
TorontoKitchener
London
Monterrey
Louisville/Lexington
$123.8 b
Top 100Metros
LouisvilleMetro
International Trade Share
15.8% 12.7%
Total Goods Trade
Goods Trade Air Travel
International Passengers
51st of Top 90 Metros34th of Top 100 Metros220,954
Top Metros of Origin/DestinationTop Metros of Origin/DestinationTop Metros of Origin/Destination1 Cancun, Mexico 7.7%2 London, United Kingdom 4.6%3 Toronto, Canada 4.0%4 Montego Bay, Jamaica 3.9%5 Frankfurt, Germany 2.5%6 Nassau, Bahamas 2.1%7 Montreal, Canada 2.0%8 Freeport, Bahamas 1.9%
Top Global Country/Region Trading Partners
Top Global Country/Region Trading Partners
Top Global Country/Region Trading Partners
1 Canada $3.3 b2 China $2.3 b3 Mexico $2.1 b4 Japan $1.4 b5 Germany $.8 b6 Korea $.5 b7 United Kingdom $.4 b8 Rest of S.E. Asia $.4 b
Louisville, KY - Freight & Air Dashboard
Source: Brookings, Metro Freight (2013) & Global Gateways (2012)
1 2 31 2
3 Metros are engaging globally in new ways
METROINNOVATION
Organize for Trade
Market AssessmentTarget Sectors
8% 9%12%
Economic Profile15%
12%
13%
9%
Establish Goals & Strategies
Boost SME exportsIncrease global fluency
Double exports Support key sectors
Government
Philanthropy
Firms
Universities
Collaborate to Compete
Organize for Trade Invest in What Matters
Innovation Human Capital Infrastructure
SUNY AlbanyNanotech Campus
Columbus
Innovation Human Capital Infrastructure
Innovation Human Capital Infrastructure
Organize for Trade Invest in What Matters Network Globally
Chicago
Mexico City2nd largestMexican immigrant population resides in Chicago metro area
130Chicago-based firms with operations in Mexico City
$1.7 billiontotal bilateral trade of locally produced products
290,000tourists and business travelers between Chicago and Mexico City per year
GLOBAL CITIES ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP
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Louisville, KY / June 26, 2014@bruce_katz #globalcities