broadband technology event - fhi technology event de kuip, november 10, 2009. ... the success of...

Federatie

van Technologie

branches (FHI)

Broadband Technology EventDe Kuip, November 10, 2009

Vision of Mobile Broadband networks in 2020

Henk Werkman General Manager & KAM

Ericsson Telecommunicatie B.V.

Commercial in confidence

One-slider on Ericsson

Our vision is to be the prime driver in an all communicating world.

Key words for Ericsson;Leader in Telecommunication solutions & servicesStrongest in MobileFinancially very strongMain customers are Fixed, Mobile & Cable operatorsWorldwide serving with 80.000 employees

“We are doing for broadband what we did for telephony 20 years ago – taking it mobile and making it affordable for more people”


Questions to answer

› 1. What is happening in the Mobile Broadband world?

› 2. What is (not!) happening in the Netherlands?

› 3. Which role plays the Dutch government?

› 4. What can you expect in 2020?

› 5. And what to do for you, here in the audience?


0.014

GSM

UMTS

From voice to Mobile Broadband

HSPA

Downlink Mb/s

1995 1999 2001 2009

HSPA+

GPRS

14 kb/s

2G 3G

LTE

4G

21 Mb/s7.2 Mb/s

>100 Mb/s 384 kb/s

2006 2011


The success of HSPA

Source: GSA – Global mobile Suppliers Association: August/September 2009

› 283 commercial HSPA networks› 119 countries

› 1605 HSPA devices› 183 suppliers

Commercial HSPA networksHSPA network launch commitments

Truly global ecosystem for HSPA

http://images.google.se/imgres?imgurl=http://blogs.appliedconsultancy.com/acsl/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/300_blackberry_bold.jpg&imgrefurl=http://blogs.appliedconsultancy.com/acsl/&usg=__GuGgx053d5F9gbvDoKhIpI2tSQw=&h=446&w=300&sz=24&hl=sv&start=3&tbnid=uHukQQyXBjIXnM:&tbnh=127&tbnw=85&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dblackberry%2Bbold%26gbv%3D2%26hl%3Dsv%26biw%3D1260


Portugal All on HSPA Evolution

› 3 million Mobile Broadband subscribers

–

YoY growth 55%

› All three mobile operators launched HSPA Evolution with 21 Mbps

Source: ANACOM, Portuguese telecom regulator

Mobile Broadband larger than Fixed Broadband

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209

Thousands

Mobile BroadbandFixed Broadband

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209

Thousands

Mobile BroadbandFixed BroadbandMobile BroadbandFixed Broadband

21Mbps


28 Mbps with TIM in Italy World’s first in commercial network

Source: TIM Italy

Higher cell-edge throughput and spectral efficiency

28Mbps


Multi Carrier HSPA with MIMO Live at CTIA in Las Vegas, April 2009

56Mbps


HSPA Evolution

721

2842

84…

15 codes, 64 QAM

MIMO

Multi Carrier

Combinations

10 codes, 16 QAM

Spectrum

efficiency

gain

Aggregation

gain

Peak rate in Mbps


~2015

~1000 Mbps

Operator dependent

Operator dependent

LTE

Future LTE releases

2010

~150 Mbps

10-100 Mbps

5-50 Mbps

Peak rate

Typical user rate downlink

Typical user rate uplink

LTE Evolution


Towards 100% penetration

A wider vision: Everything connected

2014

2020Vision

50billion

> 6billion

3.5billion

0.4billion

Launch 2010

Source: Informa & Ericsson

LTEWCDMA / HSPAGSM / EDGE

TodayMax

performance

Mass market

Largest coverage


Questions to answer







Mobile broadband penetration

› Netherlands End 2008:–

300.000 MBB subs–

5.935M fixed BB subs–

4.8% penetration

› Average EU23+2:–

11.6% penetration

Source: Berg Insight (May 2009)


Sources: Weissbuch 2009; Parks Associates

Notebook sales as % of total PC sales - Switzerland

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

• The sales of notebooks has exceeded those of desktops since 2007 in Switzerland

• In 2008, 60,000 netbooks were sold in Switzerland

• Smartphones have continuously gained market share around the world

• They have been significantly driving mobile traffic due to their high consumer appeal

Smartphone sales as % of total -worldwide

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08

Devices play a key role as well


Japan

UK Austria

0

1

2

Bucket size (GB/month)

Price Index (MBB/FBB)

2 4 6 8

Sweden

Largest uptake when price on par with fixed

Source: Ericsson

USA

Germany

Australia

10 12

High buckets or unlimited + price on par with fixed BB

Ireland

NL


Fixed Telephony

Mobile Telephony

Fixed Broadband

Mobile Broadband From households to individuals and devices

Smartphones

Connected devices

Notebooks Netbooks

http://images.google.se/imgres?imgurl=http://blogs.appliedconsultancy.com/acsl/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/300_blackberry_bold.jpg&imgrefurl=http://blogs.appliedconsultancy.com/acsl/&usg=__GuGgx053d5F9gbvDoKhIpI2tSQw=&h=446&w=300&sz=24&hl=sv&start=3&tbnid=uHukQQyXBjIXnM:&tbnh=127&tbnw=85&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dblackberry%2Bbold%26gbv%3D2%26hl%3Dsv%26biw%3D1260


New Mobile Broadband Module C3607w

Mobile Broadband on any device


New Business models have arrived 1,5GB

http://www.mobileread.com/forums/showthread.php?t=38108


Questions to answer







MBB spectrum in The Netherlands

1800

2100

900Technology neutral in 2010 (e.g. UMTS-900)Licenses valid until 2013

Technology neutral in 2010 (e.g. LTE-1800)Licenses valid until 2013Former Telfort license 2x15 MHz unused

Technology neutral in 2010 (e.g. LTE-2100)Licenses valid until 2017Former Telfort license 2x10MHz unused

2600MHz Auction in Apr/May 2010 (Techn. neutral)

Regulator wants 6 licenses !

MHz

MHz

MHz

Digital dividend, currently used by DVB-TExpected availability in 2013

800MHz

= currently licensed to KPN, Vodafone, T-Mobile


Questions to answer






Vision 2020


LIKELY THRUTHS in 2020


Life in 2020


VirtualCubicland


Eco Passport


LivingTable


Dr in a box


PictureTray


e wall-paper


Questions answered


–The global mobile broadband market is driven by data, led by laptops and smart phones, but also M2M


–The NL market seems lagging behind compared to rest of Europe


–Upcoming spectrum auctions will increase competition and capabilities for mobile broadband


–Several scenarios will be created by the market, as we see now based on the 9 likely truths



The future belongs to those who prepare

for it today


Thank you for your attention !

› Meet me afterwards !› Or, [email protected]› Or, Meet us online

www.ericsson.com/mobilebroadbandwww.ericsson.com/vision2020

And, let’s talk more Mobile Broadband !

http://www.ericsson.com/mobilebroadband

http://www.ericsson.com/vision2020

broadband technology event - fhi technology event de kuip, november 10, 2009. ... the success of...

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