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Federatie
van Technologie
branches (FHI)
Broadband Technology EventDe Kuip, November 10, 2009
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Vision of Mobile Broadband networks in 2020
Henk Werkman General Manager & KAM
Ericsson Telecommunicatie B.V.
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One-slider on Ericsson
Our vision is to be the prime driver in an all communicating world.
Key words for Ericsson;Leader in Telecommunication solutions & servicesStrongest in MobileFinancially very strongMain customers are Fixed, Mobile & Cable operatorsWorldwide serving with 80.000 employees
“We are doing for broadband what we did for telephony 20 years ago – taking it mobile and making it affordable for more people”
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Questions to answer
› 1. What is happening in the Mobile Broadband world?
› 2. What is (not!) happening in the Netherlands?
› 3. Which role plays the Dutch government?
› 4. What can you expect in 2020?
› 5. And what to do for you, here in the audience?
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0.014
GSM
UMTS
From voice to Mobile Broadband
HSPA
Downlink Mb/s
1995 1999 2001 2009
HSPA+
GPRS
14 kb/s
2G 3G
LTE
4G
21 Mb/s7.2 Mb/s
>100 Mb/s 384 kb/s
2006 2011
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The success of HSPA
Source: GSA – Global mobile Suppliers Association: August/September 2009
› 283 commercial HSPA networks› 119 countries
› 1605 HSPA devices› 183 suppliers
Commercial HSPA networksHSPA network launch commitments
Truly global ecosystem for HSPA
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Portugal All on HSPA Evolution
› 3 million Mobile Broadband subscribers
–
YoY growth 55%
› All three mobile operators launched HSPA Evolution with 21 Mbps
Source: ANACOM, Portuguese telecom regulator
Mobile Broadband larger than Fixed Broadband
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209
Thousands
Mobile BroadbandFixed Broadband
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209
Thousands
Mobile BroadbandFixed BroadbandMobile BroadbandFixed Broadband
21Mbps
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28 Mbps with TIM in Italy World’s first in commercial network
Source: TIM Italy
Higher cell-edge throughput and spectral efficiency
28Mbps
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Multi Carrier HSPA with MIMO Live at CTIA in Las Vegas, April 2009
56Mbps
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HSPA Evolution
721
2842
84…
15 codes, 64 QAM
MIMO
Multi Carrier
Combinations
10 codes, 16 QAM
Spectrum
efficiency
gain
Aggregation
gain
Peak rate in Mbps
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~2015
~1000 Mbps
Operator dependent
Operator dependent
LTE
Future LTE releases
2010
~150 Mbps
10-100 Mbps
5-50 Mbps
Peak rate
Typical user rate downlink
Typical user rate uplink
LTE Evolution
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Towards 100% penetration
A wider vision: Everything connected
2014
2020Vision
50billion
> 6billion
3.5billion
0.4billion
Launch 2010
Source: Informa & Ericsson
LTEWCDMA / HSPAGSM / EDGE
TodayMax
performance
Mass market
Largest coverage
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Questions to answer
› 1. What is happening in the Mobile Broadband world?
› 2. What is (not!) happening in the Netherlands?
› 3. Which role plays the Dutch government?
› 4. What can you expect in 2020?
› 5. And what to do for you, here in the audience?
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Mobile broadband penetration
› Netherlands End 2008:–
300.000 MBB subs–
5.935M fixed BB subs–
4.8% penetration
› Average EU23+2:–
11.6% penetration
Source: Berg Insight (May 2009)
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Sources: Weissbuch 2009; Parks Associates
Notebook sales as % of total PC sales - Switzerland
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
• The sales of notebooks has exceeded those of desktops since 2007 in Switzerland
• In 2008, 60,000 netbooks were sold in Switzerland
• Smartphones have continuously gained market share around the world
• They have been significantly driving mobile traffic due to their high consumer appeal
Smartphone sales as % of total -worldwide
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08
Devices play a key role as well
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Japan
UK Austria
0
1
2
Bucket size (GB/month)
Price Index (MBB/FBB)
2 4 6 8
Sweden
Largest uptake when price on par with fixed
Source: Ericsson
USA
Germany
Australia
10 12
High buckets or unlimited + price on par with fixed BB
Ireland
NL
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Fixed Telephony
Mobile Telephony
Fixed Broadband
Mobile Broadband From households to individuals and devices
Smartphones
Connected devices
Notebooks Netbooks
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New Mobile Broadband Module C3607w
Mobile Broadband on any device
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New Business models have arrived 1,5GB
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Questions to answer
› 1. What is happening in the Mobile Broadband world?
› 2. What is (not!) happening in the Netherlands?
› 3. Which role plays the Dutch government?
› 4. What can you expect in 2020?
› 5. And what to do for you, here in the audience?
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MBB spectrum in The Netherlands
1800
2100
900Technology neutral in 2010 (e.g. UMTS-900)Licenses valid until 2013
Technology neutral in 2010 (e.g. LTE-1800)Licenses valid until 2013Former Telfort license 2x15 MHz unused
Technology neutral in 2010 (e.g. LTE-2100)Licenses valid until 2017Former Telfort license 2x10MHz unused
2600MHz Auction in Apr/May 2010 (Techn. neutral)
Regulator wants 6 licenses !
MHz
MHz
MHz
Digital dividend, currently used by DVB-TExpected availability in 2013
800MHz
= currently licensed to KPN, Vodafone, T-Mobile
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Questions to answer
› 1. What is happening in the Mobile Broadband world?
› 2. What is (not!) happening in the Netherlands?
› 3. Which role plays the Dutch government?
› 4. What can you expect in 2020?
› 5. And what to do for you, here in the audience?
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Vision 2020
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LIKELY THRUTHS in 2020
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Life in 2020
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VirtualCubicland
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VirtualCubicland
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Eco Passport
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LivingTable
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Dr in a box
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PictureTray
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PictureTray
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e wall-paper
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Questions answered
› 1. What is happening in the Mobile Broadband world?
–The global mobile broadband market is driven by data, led by laptops and smart phones, but also M2M
› 2. What is (not!) happening in the Netherlands?
–The NL market seems lagging behind compared to rest of Europe
› 3. Which role plays the Dutch government?
–Upcoming spectrum auctions will increase competition and capabilities for mobile broadband
› 4. What can you expect in 2020?
–Several scenarios will be created by the market, as we see now based on the 9 likely truths
› 5. And what to do for you, here in the audience?
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The future belongs to those who prepare
for it today
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Thank you for your attention !
› Meet me afterwards !› Or, [email protected]› Or, Meet us online
www.ericsson.com/mobilebroadbandwww.ericsson.com/vision2020
And, let’s talk more Mobile Broadband !
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