booz allen hamilton - 2016 cleveland research company stock pitch competition
TRANSCRIPT
Booz Allen Hamilton (NYSE: BAH)Brian Etienne | Cianan Moore | Manav Sarkaria | Matt Thomas
Cleveland Research Company Stock Pitch | 2016
Investment Thesis & Overview 3Industry Dynamics 7Growth Opportunities & Drivers 10Valuation 14Final Thoughts 17Appendix 18
2
Investment Thesis
3Investment Thesis
& Overview Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities & Drivers
Valuation & Final Thoughts Appendix
Booz Allen Hamilton is positioned to take advantage of growing threats facing both the United States government and private sector
Booz Allen Hamilton is a non-cyclical company as a result of its primary focus on government contracts
Growing demand for cyber security expertise due to increasing global cyber attack activity
Anticipated future margin growth led by a shift to fixed-price contracts and growth in commercial markets
We recommend Booz Allen Hamilton as a Buy with a 12 month price target of $35.10, which is an upside of 25.99% from the current share price of $27.86
Company OverviewCompany Description Headquartered in Tysons Corner, Virginia NYSE: BAH Management consulting firm serving as a
security and defense contractor Operations in 12 countries
4
Key Statistics
Sources of Revenue Revenue derived from contracts and task
orders with the U.S. government Revenue generated under 3 contract types:
Cost-reimbursable Time-and-materials Fixed-price
Investment Thesis & Overview Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& DriversValuation & Final
Thoughts Appendix
55%
25%
20%
Cost-reimbursableTime-and-materialsFixed-price
Marke
t Dat
a
Current Price $27.86
Market Cap. 4.15B
P/E Ratio 15.56x
Price/Book 11.09x
Operations
TTM Revenue 5.27B
Profit Margin 5.11%
Diluted EPS $1.79
Capital Structur
e
Net Debt 1.59B
Cash – Cash Equiv. 207.2M
Current Ratio 1.43x
Quick Ratio 1.43x
Value
EV/Revenue 1.06x
EV/EBITDA 12.15x
EV/FCF 21.41x
Source: Company 10-K, Bloomberg
Company Overview52-Week Stock Performance
5
Client Relationship Length (Years)
U.S. Navy 70+U.S. Army 65+U.S. Air Force 35+Dept. of Energy 35+National Security Agency 30+Dept. of Homeland Security 30+Federal Bureau of Investigation 20+National Reconnaissance Office 15+
Long-Term Client Relationships Long standing and extensive relationship
with U.S. government Deep understanding of clients’ problems
and strategies
Investment Thesis & Overview Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& DriversValuation & Final
Thoughts Appendix
Company Structure Parent company split in 2008
Booz Allen Hamilton half focusing on U.S. government contracts
Non-compete provision expired in 2011, allowing Booz Allen Hamilton to build out commercial consulting practice
4/6/2015 7/6/2015 10/6/2015 1/6/20160mm
1000000mm2000000mm3000000mm4000000mm5000000mm6000000mm
$20$25$30$35$40$45$50$55
Source: Company 10-K, Bloomberg
6
Company Overview3.2%
24.9%
23.5%
48.4%Commercial/ In-ternational
Intelligence
Civil
Defense
Contract Win Rate
Revenue By Market FY15
Breakdown Historically successful in receiving and
retaining contracts
Resistant to market cycles due to high percentage of revenue from the government
Investment Thesis & Overview Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& DriversValuation & Final
Thoughts AppendixSource: Investor Relations
Re-competes New Business0%
50%
100%
88%55%
Historical Contract Mix
FY2013 FY2014 FY20150%
50%
100%
28% 28% 25%
57% 55% 55%
15% 17% 20%
Time & Materials Cost Reimbursable Fixed Price
7
Industry OutlookGovernment Defense Spending
Cyber Security Global Growth
IT Market Growth
Industry Success Factors Competitive pricing and services Well developed internal processes Access to niche markets Long lasting customer relationships Adaptability to market preference changes
Investment Thesis & Overview Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& DriversValuation & Final
Thoughts Appendix
2014 2015 2016 20170.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025$0B
$100B
$200B
$300B
Source: TechTarget, Defense.gov
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020$B
$100B$200B$300B$400B$500B$600B$700B$800B
$mm$500mm$1000mm$1500mm$2000mm$2500mm$3000mm$3500mm$4000mm$4500mm
Government Defense Spending Net Income
Cyber Security Industry Attack Surface Expansion Expected device expansion (2015-2020)
Global public cloud computing market: 63.9% Wearable technology: 290.0% Tablets: 8.5%
Growing trend in connected vehicles Increased use of cryptocurrencies
8
Rising Cost of Data Breaches
History of Chinese Intrusions
2013 2014 2015$4mm
$5mm
$6mm
$7mm
$5mm$6mm
$7mm
Average Organizational Breach Cost
Investment Thesis & Overview Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& DriversValuation & Final
Thoughts AppendixSource: IBISWorld, McAfee
Titan RainState Dept
US BISUS NWC
US Sec DefEnfal
US Rep Frank WolfPOTUS Campaign
Ghost NetF-35 JSF
AuroraShadows in the Cloud
Byzantine HaydesNight Dragon
RSAShady RAT
LuridNitro
TaidoorLuckycat
IxesheVOHO
ElderwoodCyber-Sitter
HeartBeatUS News Media
ATP1/CommentCrewBeebus, Mutter
Bit9TelventQinetiQ
SafeASIO
SCADA HoneypotATP12: G-20Hidden Lynx
Icefog
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Government Mixed Commercial
9
Government Consulting Market Highly concentrated segment of consulting
management Advancements in technology have led to a
more competitive market Smaller firms now able to succeed in niche
markets
Commercial Markets Focused on cyber security and analytics market Becoming increasingly fragmented due to
number of products and services in the industry Industry's sheer size prevents any one company
from dominating the industry
Industry Landscape
Investment Thesis & Overview Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& DriversValuation & Final
Thoughts Appendix
Towers Watson & Co.
Booz Allen Hamilton
CEB Inc.
WageWorks Inc.
Fit Consulting Inc.
$0B $5000000000B $10000000000B
$8500000000B
$4500000000B
$2100000000B
$1800000000B
$1400000000B
Key Players by Revenue19%
81%
Industry Market Share
Top 4 FirmsOther
Source: IBISWorld, ControlRisks
10
Areas of Focus for GrowthEngineering First began building engineering portfolio in
2012 Purchased Defense Systems Engineering and
Support division of Annapolis-based Arinc Inc.
3,000 engineers and applied scientists Access to engineering-focused firms
U.S. Air Force Space Command
Innovation Broken up into four areas:
Digital Next-generation analytics and data science Predictive intelligence Innovation services
Cyber Security Devise cyber strategies for clients
Rising cost of data breaches
Increased cyber attack activity
Commercial and International Looking to re-establish commercial markets Grown commercial revenue to 3% since 2011 Emerging markets for IT Consulting
Brazil, Russia, India, China, Middle-East
Investment Thesis & Overview Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& DriversValuation & Final
Thoughts AppendixSource: Company 10-K
11
Margin AnalysisCompetitor MarginsMargin Growth
Margin Outlook Increased focus towards software vs. hardware
will lead to higher margins Targeting the commercial consulting market,
leading to higher margins relative to government contracts
Investment Thesis & Overview Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& DriversValuation & Final
Thoughts Appendix
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15$0mm
$200mm
$400mm
$600mm
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
Adj. EBITDA Margin
Variable Contracts Increasing fixed price contract mix resulting in
higher margin Hedge high risk of fixed price contracts with
time-and-material and cost-reimbursable contract mixes
Booz Alle
n Hamilton
Leidos Holdings
Maximus I
nc
Science
Applications I
ntl.
Mantech In
ternational Corp
Caci International
0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%
Avg.
12
40499 40633 40999 41364 41729 42094$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
Comparison of Cumulative Total Returns Since IPO
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp Russell 1000 Index DJ US Computer Services
Return on Investment Assumes a $100 investment
Source: Company 10-K, Google Finance
Investment Thesis & Overview Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& DriversValuation & Final
Thoughts Appendix
13
SWOT Analysis
Investment Thesis & Overview Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& DriversValuation & Final
Thoughts Appendix
Long lasting customer relationships
72% of employees have classified clearances
Large backlog provides realizable revenues
S
Changes in U.S. government’s budget process
Upcoming U.S. Presidential election
Contract modifications
T
Relatively new to commercial market
Beginning to build international presence
Lack of consulting headcount to fulfill demand
W
Higher margins in commercial markets
International expansion
Increasing cyber attack activity
OSource: Company 10-K
Valuation Summary
14Investment Thesis
& Overview Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities & Drivers
Valuation & Final Thoughts Appendix
Source: Company 10-K, Bloomberg
Public Comparables - EV/EBITDA
DCF - Bear Case
DCF - Base Case
Public Comparables - P/E
DCF - Bull Case
$10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00 $45.00 $50.00
Implied Price Target of $35.10
15
Valuation Historical Earnings Performance
Comparables
WACC Calculation
Comparable Analysis Low P/E ratio compared to its peers indicates
that the stock is currently undervalued
Capital structure causes its EV/EBITDA multiple to be slightly higher than average
Investment Thesis & Overview Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& DriversValuation & Final
Thoughts AppendixSource: Company 10-K, Bloomberg
WACC AnalysisMarket Value of Debt $1,590Market Value of Equity 4,330 Total Capital $5,920 Beta 1.24Market Risk Premium 5.75%Risk Free Rate 1.73%Cost of Equity 8.86%Cost of Debt 4.52%
WACC 7.29%
Implied ValuationEV/EBITDA
Low Average HighImplied Share Price $20.94 $26.50 $34.63
Upside (25.8%) (6.1%) 22.7% P/E
Implied Share Price $30.85 $36.47 $43.17 Upside 9.3% 29.2% 52.9%
Q4 - 2014 Q1 - 2015 Q2 - 2015 Q3 - 2015 Q4 - 2015 Q1 - 2016 Q2 - 2016 Q3 - 20160
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Consesus EPS Actual EPS
16
Discounted Cash Flow AnalysisPerpetuity Growth Method @ 2.25%
PV of Projection Period $ 1,698,178
2020 FCF 355,667
Perpetuity Growth Rate 2.25%
Terminal Value $ 7,217,842
Years 5.0
PV of Terminal Value $ 5,077,406
Total Enterprise Value $ 6,775,584
Equity Value 5,188,384
Shares Outstanding 147,196
Price Per Share $35.25
ValuationSensitivity Analysis
Investment Thesis & Overview Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& DriversValuation & Final
Thoughts AppendixSource: Company 10-K, Bloomberg
Variance of Perpetuity Growth Rate - Bull Case
WACC
1.75% 2.00% 2.25% 2.50% 2.75%6.50% $47.56 $50.20 $53.15 $56.47 $60.246.75% $44.20 $46.52 $49.11 $52.00 $55.257.00% $41.17 $43.23 $45.51 $48.04 $50.877.29% $38.04 $39.84 $41.82 $44.01 $46.447.50% $35.95 $37.59 $39.39 $41.36 $43.557.75% $33.68 $35.16 $36.77 $38.53 $40.468.00% $31.61 $32.94 $34.38 $35.96 $37.68
Variance of Perpetuity Growth Rate - Bear Case
WACC
1.75% 2.00% 2.25% 2.50% 2.75%6.50% $32.74 $34.70 $36.88 $39.34 $42.126.75% $30.25 $31.97 $33.89 $36.03 $38.437.00% $28.01 $29.54 $31.22 $33.10 $35.197.29% $25.69 $27.02 $28.49 $30.11 $31.917.50% $24.14 $25.36 $26.69 $28.15 $29.777.75% $22.47 $23.56 $24.75 $26.05 $27.488.00% $20.93 $21.91 $22.98 $24.15 $25.42
Variance of Perpetuity Growth Rate - Base Case
WACC
1.75% 2.00% 2.25% 2.50% 2.75%6.50% $40.21 $42.49 $45.04 $47.90 $51.156.75% $37.30 $39.31 $41.54 $44.04 $46.847.00% $34.69 $36.47 $38.44 $40.62 $43.067.29% $31.98 $33.54 $35.25 $37.14 $39.247.50% $30.18 $31.59 $33.15 $34.85 $36.747.75% $28.22 $29.49 $30.88 $32.40 $34.078.00% $26.43 $27.58 $28.82 $30.18 $31.67
Final Thoughts
17Investment Thesis
& Overview Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities & Drivers
Valuation & Final Thoughts Appendix
Booz Allen Hamilton is positioned to take advantage of growing threats facing both the United States government and private sector
Booz Allen Hamilton is a non-cyclical company as a result of its primary focus on government contracts
Growing demand for cyber security expertise due to increasing global cyber attack activity
Anticipated future margin growth led by a shift to fixed-price contracts and growth in commercial markets
We recommend Booz Allen Hamilton as a Buy with a 12 month price target of $35.10, which is an upside of 25.99% from the current share price of $27.86
Appendix
18Investment Thesis
& Overview Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities & Drivers
Valuation & Final Thoughts Appendix
19
Pro Forma Income Statement
Pro Forma Balance Sheet
Pro Forma Statement of Cash Flows
Discounted Cash flow
Comparables
United States Office Locations
International Office Locations
Notable Contract Awards
Appendix Table of Contents
Investment Thesis & Overview Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& DriversValuation & Final
Thoughts Appendix
20
Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Revenue $5,591,296 $5,859,218 $5,758,059 $5,478,693 $5,274,770 $5,353,892 $5,471,677 $5,608,469 $5,759,898 $5,915,415 % Growth 1.50% 2.20% 2.50% 2.70% 2.70%
Cost of revenue 2,836,955 2,934,378 2,871,240 2,716,113 2,593,849
2,611,341
2,646,904
2,690,643
2,740,250
2,790,576 % of Revenue 48.77% 48.37% 47.97% 47.57% 47.17%
Billable expenses 1,473,266 1,542,822 1,532,590 1,487,115 1,406,527
3,076,230
3,123,126
3,179,904
3,243,887
3,309,006
General and administrative expenses 881,028 903,721 833,986 742,527 752,912
1,646,702
1,671,805
1,702,198
1,736,448
1,771,306
Depreciation and amortization 80,603 75,205 74,009 72,327 62,660
137,044
139,134
141,663
144,513
147,414 Restructuring Charge 0 15,660 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total operating costs and expenses 5,271,852 5,471,786 5,311,825 5,018,082 4,815,948
4,859,976
4,934,065
5,023,766
5,124,848
5,227,727 % of Revenue 42.00% 41.80% 41.60% 41.40% 41.20%
Operating income 319,444 387,432 446,234 460,611 458,822 493,916 537,612 584,703 635,050 687,688
Interest expense (131,892) (48,078) (70,284) (78,030) (71,832)
(77,326)
(84,167)
(91,540)
(99,422)
(107,663)
Other, net (59,488) 4,520 (7,639) (1,794) (1,072) (1,154)
(1,256)
(1,366)
(1,484)
(1,607)
Income before income taxes 128,064 343,874 368,311 380,787 385,918 415,436 452,189 491,798 534,144 578,419
Income tax expense 43,370 103,919 149,253 148,599 153,349
138,848
151,132
164,370
178,523
193,321 Net income $84,694 $239,955 $219,058 $232,188 $232,569 $276,587 $301,057 $327,427 $355,621 $385,098
Earnings per common share (Note 3): Basic 0.74 1.83 1.56 1.62 1.58 $1.88 $2.05 $2.22 $2.42 $2.62
Pro Forma Income Statement
Investment Thesis & Overview Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& DriversValuation & Final
Thoughts AppendixSource: Bloomberg
21
Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 x Assets
Cash and cash equivalents $192,631 $484,368 $350,384 $259,994 $207,217 Accounts receivable, net of allowance 1,111,004 1,077,315 1,029,586 916,737 857,310 Deferred income taxes 0 0 0 29,687 14,539 Prepaid expenses and other current assets 56,808 45,180 44,382 49,559 84,142 Income taxes receivable 0 46,794 0 0 0
Total current assets 1,360,443 1,653,657 1,424,352 1,255,977 1,163,208 Property and equipment, net of accumulated depreciation 173,430 191,079 166,570 129,427 111,367 Deferred income taxes 41,409 7,790 10,032 0 14,758 Intangible assets, net of accumulated amortization 240,238 223,834 236,220 220,887 219,382 Goodwill 1,163,549 1,188,004 1,277,369 1,273,789 1,304,231 Other long-term assets 44,954 50,427 62,985 60,738 64,547
Total assets$3,024,02
3 $3,314,79
1 $3,177,52
8 $2,940,81
8 $2,877,49
3
x Liabilities & Shareholder's Equity Current portion of long-term debt $30,000 $42,500 $55,562 $73,688 $57,063 Accounts payable and other accrued expenses 406,310 443,951 451,065 488,807 481,815 Accrued compensation and benefits 396,996 357,872 385,433 331,440 279,239 Deferred income taxes 21,231 59,493 10,286 0 0 Other current liabilities 11,598 10,630 62,300 23,169 30,877
Total current liabilities 866,135 914,446 964,646 917,104 848,994 Long-term debt, net of current portion 964,328 922,925 1,659,611 1,585,231 1,569,272 Income tax reserve 90,474 55,282 57,018 57,406 58,444 Deferred income taxes 0 0 0 8,231 0 Other long-term liabilities 195,836 236,953 269,460 201,210 214,285
Total liabilities$2,116,77
3 $2,129,60
6 $2,950,73
5 $2,769,18
2 $2,690,99
5
Common stock, Class A — $0.01 par value — authorized, 600,000,000 shares; issued, 150,237,675 shares at March 31, 2015 and 143,962,073 shares at March 31, 2014; outstanding, 147,238,282 shares at March 31, 2015 and 143,352,448 shares at March 31, 2014 1,227 1,287 1,364 1,440 1,502 Non-voting common stock, Class B — $0.01 par value — authorized, 16,000,000 shares; issued and outstanding, 0 shares at March 31, 2015 and 582,080 shares at March 31, 2014 31 25 15 6 0 Restricted common stock, Class C — $0.01 par value — authorized, 5,000,000 shares; issued and outstanding, 0 shares at March 31, 2015 and 935,871 shares at March 31, 2014 20 15 12 9 0 Special voting common stock, Class E — $0.003 par value — authorized, 25,000,000 shares; issued and outstanding, 1,851,589 shares at March 31, 2015 and 4,424,814 shares at March 31, 2014 37 30 22 13 6 Treasury stock, at cost — 2,999,393 shares at March 31, 2015 and 609,625 shares at March 31, 2014 0 (5,377) (6,444) (10,153) (72,293)Additional paid-in capital 840,058 898,541 120,836 144,269 174,985 Retained earnings 71,330 299,379 124,775 42,688 104,457 Accumulated other comprehensive loss (5,453) (8,715) (13,787) (6,636) (22,159)
Total stockholders’ equity 907,250 1,185,185 226,793 171,636 186,498
Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity$3,024,02
3 $3,314,79
1 $3,177,52
8 $2,940,81
8 $2,877,49
3
Pro Forma Balance Sheet
Investment Thesis & Overview Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& DriversValuation & Final
Thoughts AppendixSource: Bloomberg
22
Pro Forma Statement of Cash Flows
Investment Thesis & Overview Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& DriversValuation & Final
Thoughts Appendix
Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Assets
Cash and cash equivalents $192,631 $484,368 $350,384 $259,994 $207,217 Accounts receivable, net of allowance 1,111,004 1,077,315 1,029,586 916,737 857,310 Deferred income taxes 0 0 0 29,687 14,539 Prepaid expenses and other current assets 56,808 45,180 44,382 49,559 84,142 Income taxes receivable 0 46,794 0 0 0
Total current assets 1,360,443 1,653,657 1,424,352 1,255,977 1,163,208 Property and equipment, net of accumulated depreciation 173,430 191,079 166,570 129,427 111,367 Deferred income taxes 41,409 7,790 10,032 0 14,758 Intangible assets, net of accumulated amortization 240,238 223,834 236,220 220,887 219,382 Goodwill 1,163,549 1,188,004 1,277,369 1,273,789 1,304,231 Other long-term assets 44,954 50,427 62,985 60,738 64,547
Total assets$3,024,02
3 $3,314,79
1 $3,177,52
8 $2,940,81
8 $2,877,49
3
Liabilities & Shareholder's Equity Current portion of long-term debt $30,000 $42,500 $55,562 $73,688 $57,063 Accounts payable and other accrued expenses 406,310 443,951 451,065 488,807 481,815 Accrued compensation and benefits 396,996 357,872 385,433 331,440 279,239 Deferred income taxes 21,231 59,493 10,286 0 0 Other current liabilities 11,598 10,630 62,300 23,169 30,877
Total current liabilities 866,135 914,446 964,646 917,104 848,994 Long-term debt, net of current portion 964,328 922,925 1,659,611 1,585,231 1,569,272 Income tax reserve 90,474 55,282 57,018 57,406 58,444 Deferred income taxes 0 0 0 8,231 0 Other long-term liabilities 195,836 236,953 269,460 201,210 214,285
Total liabilities$2,116,77
3 $2,129,60
6 $2,950,73
5 $2,769,18
2 $2,690,99
5
Common stock, Class A — $0.01 par value — authorized, 600,000,000 shares; issued, 150,237,675 shares at March 31, 2015 and 143,962,073 shares at March 31, 2014; outstanding, 147,238,282 shares at March 31, 2015 and 143,352,448 shares at March 31, 2014 1,227 1,287 1,364 1,440 1,502 Non-voting common stock, Class B — $0.01 par value — authorized, 16,000,000 shares; issued and outstanding, 0 shares at March 31, 2015 and 582,080 shares at March 31, 2014 31 25 15 6 0 Restricted common stock, Class C — $0.01 par value — authorized, 5,000,000 shares; issued and outstanding, 0 shares at March 31, 2015 and 935,871 shares at March 31, 2014 20 15 12 9 0 Special voting common stock, Class E — $0.003 par value — authorized, 25,000,000 shares; issued and outstanding, 1,851,589 shares at March 31, 2015 and 4,424,814 shares at March 31, 2014 37 30 22 13 6 Treasury stock, at cost — 2,999,393 shares at March 31, 2015 and 609,625 shares at March 31, 2014 0 (5,377) (6,444) (10,153) (72,293)Additional paid-in capital 840,058 898,541 120,836 144,269 174,985 Retained earnings 71,330 299,379 124,775 42,688 104,457 Accumulated other comprehensive loss (5,453) (8,715) (13,787) (6,636) (22,159)
Total stockholders’ equity 907,250 1,185,185 226,793 171,636 186,498
Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity$3,024,02
3 $3,314,79
1 $3,177,52
8 $2,940,81
8 $2,877,49
3
Source: Bloomberg
23
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020EYear 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0Revenue $5,591,296 $5,859,218 $5,758,059 $5,478,693 $5,274,770 $5,353,892 $5,471,677 $5,608,469 $5,759,898 $5,915,415
% Growth 4.8% (1.7%) (4.9%) (3.7%) 1.5% 2.2% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7%
Less: Cost of Goods Sold 2,836,955 2,934,378 2,871,240 2,716,113 2,593,849 $2,611,341 $2,646,904 $2,690,643 $2,740,250 $2,790,576
Gross Profit 2,754,341 2,924,840 2,886,819 2,762,580 2,680,921 2,742,550 2,824,773 2,917,826 3,019,647 3,124,839
Less: Operating Expenses 2,434,897 2,537,408 2,440,585 2,301,969 2,222,099 $2,248,634 $2,287,161 $2,333,123 $2,384,598 $2,437,151
Operating Income 319,444 387,432 446,234 460,611 458,822 493,916 537,612 584,703 635,050 687,688
Less: Taxes 43,370 103,919 149,253 148,599 153,349 165,078 179,683 195,421 212,248 229,842 Tax Rate 13.6% 26.8% 33.4% 32.3% 33.4% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33%NOPAT 276,074 283,513 296,981 312,012 305,473 328,838 357,930 389,282 422,801 457,847
Add: D&A 80,603 75,205 74,009 72,327 62,660 69,601 71,132 72,910 74,879 76,900 Less: Capex 87,400 53,593 190,452 13,556 60,575 53,539 76,603 128,995 57,599 59,154 Less: Change in W/C ($34,334) ($132,459) ($12,317) $11,493 (57,141) (22,559) (25,175) (26,053) (30,009)
Unlevered FCF $269,277 $339,459 $312,997 $383,100 $296,065 $402,040 $375,017 $358,373 $466,134 $505,603
PV of FCF @ Discount Rate 7.29% 374,728 325,795 290,185 351,802 355,667 PV of Projection Period 1,698,178
Discounted Cash Flow
Investment Thesis & Overview Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& DriversValuation & Final
Thoughts AppendixSource: Bloomberg
24
Name Ticker Mkt. Cap EV/EBITDA T12M Net Sales T12M P/E
Booz Allen BAH $4,395.20 12.15x $5,324.37 16.52x
Leidos Holdings LDOS $3,658.66 9.25x $5,086.00 16.86x
Maximus Inc MMS $3,107.13 12.77x $2,189.50 21.70x
Science Applications SAIC $2,345.34 8.92x $4,315.00 18.69x
Mantech International Corp MANT $1,173.55 9.71x $1,550.12 23.59x
Caci International CACI $2,537.07 10.10x $3,336.18 18.81x
Average $2,869.49 10.48x $3,633.53 19.93x
Comparables
Investment Thesis & Overview Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& DriversValuation & Final
Thoughts AppendixSource: Bloomberg
25
United States Office Locations
Source: Company 10-K
Investment Thesis & Overview Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& DriversValuation & Final
Thoughts Appendix
Corporate Headquarters
Major U.S. Military Installment
Office Location
26
International Office Locations
Corporate Headquarters
Major U.S. Military Installment
Office Location
Source: Company 10-K
Investment Thesis & Overview Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& DriversValuation & Final
Thoughts Appendix
27
March 2016: $5B IDIQ Cybersecurity and Information Systems Contract by Department of Defense
October 2015: $937M Threat Intelligence Contract with Department of Defense
August 2015: $500M Support Contract with Department of Health and Human Services
June 2015: $3.5B Research and Development Task Order with U.S. Army
June 2015: $7.9B Information Technology Contract with U.S. Air Force
May 2015: $39M Cyber Security Task with Department of Homeland Security
Notable Contract Awards
Source: Company 10-K, Google Finance
Investment Thesis & Overview Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& DriversValuation & Final
Thoughts Appendix